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A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets, and typically follow a land boom.[1] A land boom is the rapid increase in the market price of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels and then decline. This period, during the run up to the crash, is also known as froth. The questions of whether real estate bubbles can be identified and prevented, and whether they have broader macroeconomic significance, are answered differently by schools of economic thought, as detailed below.[1][2]

Bubbles in housing markets are more critical than stock market bubbles. Historically, equity price busts occur on average every 13 years, last for 2.5 years, and result in about 4 percent loss in GDP. Housing price busts are less frequent, but last nearly twice as long and lead to output losses that are twice as large (IMF World Economic Outlook, 2003). A recent laboratory experimental study[3] also shows that, compared to financial markets, real estate markets involve longer boom and bust periods. Prices decline slower because the real estate market is less liquid.

The financial crisis of 2007–2008 was related to the bursting of real estate bubbles that had begun in various countries during the 2000s.[4]

Identification and prevention

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US house price trend (1998–2008) as measured by the Case–Shiller index
US house price trend (1998–2008) as measured by the Case–Shiller index
Ratio of Melbourne median house prices to Australian annual wages, 1965 to 2010
Ratio of Melbourne median house prices to Australian annual wages, 1965 to 2010

As with all types of economic bubbles, disagreement exists over whether or not a real estate bubble can be identified or predicted, then perhaps prevented. Speculative bubbles are persistent, systematic and increasing deviations of actual prices from their fundamental values.[5] Real estate bubbles can be difficult to identify even as they are occurring, due in part to the difficulty of discerning the intrinsic value of real estate. As with other medium and long range economic trends, accurate prediction of future bubbles has proven difficult.[1]

In real estate, fundamentals can be estimated from rental yields (where real estate is then considered in a similar vein to stocks and other financial assets) or based on a regression of actual prices on a set of demand and/or supply variables.[6][7]

American economist Robert Shiller of the Case–Shiller Home Price Index of home prices in 20 metro cities across the United States indicated on May 31, 2011 that a "Home Price Double Dip [is] Confirmed"[8] and British magazine The Economist, argue that housing market indicators can be used to identify real estate bubbles. Some[who?] argue further that governments and central banks can and should take action to prevent bubbles from forming, or to deflate existing bubbles.

Macroeconomic significance

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Within mainstream economics, economic bubbles, and in particular real estate bubbles, are not considered major concerns.[dubious ] Within some schools of heterodox economics, by contrast, real estate bubbles are considered of critical importance and a fundamental cause of financial crises and ensuing economic crises.

The pre-dominating economic perspective is that increases in housing prices result in little or no wealth effect, namely it does not affect the consumption behavior of households not looking to sell. The house price becoming compensation for the higher implicit rent costs for owning. Increasing house prices can have a negative effect on consumption through increased rent inflation and a higher propensity to save given expected rent increase.[9]

In some schools of heterodox economics, notably Austrian economics and Post-Keynesian economics, real estate bubbles are seen as an example of credit bubbles (pejoratively,[clarification needed] speculative bubbles), because property owners generally use borrowed money to purchase property, in the form of mortgages. These are then argued to cause financial and hence economic crises. This is first argued empirically – numerous real estate bubbles have been followed by economic slumps, and it is argued that there is a cause-effect relationship between these.

The Post-Keynesian theory of debt deflation takes a demand-side view, arguing that property owners not only feel richer but borrow to (i) consume against the increased value of their property – by taking out a home equity line of credit, for instance; or (ii) speculate by buying property with borrowed money in the expectation that it will rise in value. When the bubble bursts, the value of the property decreases but not the level of debt. The burden of repaying or defaulting on the loan depresses aggregate demand, it is argued, and constitutes the proximate cause of the subsequent economic slump.

Housing market indicators

UK house prices between 1975 and 2006, adjusted for inflation
UK house prices between 1975 and 2006, adjusted for inflation
Robert Shiller's plot of U.S. home prices, population, building costs, and bond yields, from Irrational Exuberance, 2d ed. Shiller shows that inflation adjusted U.S. home prices increased 0.4% per year from 1890–2004, and 0.7% per year from 1940–2004, whereas U.S. census data from 1940–2004 shows that the self-assessed value increased 2% per year.
Robert Shiller's plot of U.S. home prices, population, building costs, and bond yields, from Irrational Exuberance, 2d ed. Shiller shows that inflation adjusted U.S. home prices increased 0.4% per year from 1890–2004, and 0.7% per year from 1940–2004, whereas U.S. census data from 1940–2004 shows that the self-assessed value increased 2% per year.

In attempting to identify bubbles before they burst, economists have developed a number of financial ratios and economic indicators that can be used to evaluate whether homes in a given area are fairly valued. By comparing current levels to previous levels that have proven unsustainable in the past (i.e. led to or at least accompanied crashes), one can make an educated guess as to whether a given real estate market is experiencing a bubble. Indicators describe two interwoven aspects of housing bubble: a valuation component and a debt (or leverage) component. The valuation component measures how expensive houses are relative to what most people can afford, and the debt component measures how indebted households become in buying them for home or profit (and also how much exposure the banks accumulate by lending for them). A basic summary of the progress of housing indicators for U.S. cities is provided by Business Week.[10] See also: real estate economics and real estate trends.

Housing affordability measures

Inflation-adjusted home prices in Japan (1980–2005) compared to home price appreciation in the United States, Britain, and Australia (1995–2005)
Inflation-adjusted home prices in Japan (1980–2005) compared to home price appreciation in the United States, Britain, and Australia (1995–2005)

Housing debt measures

Housing ownership and rent measures

The house price-to-earnings ratio provides a direct comparison with P/E ratios utilised to analyze other uses of the money tied up in a home. Compare this ratio to the simpler but less accurate price-rent ratio below.
The latter is often measured using the "owner's equivalent rent" numbers published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It can be viewed as the real estate equivalent of stocks' price-earnings ratio; in other terms it measures how much the buyer is paying for each dollar of received rent income (or dollar saved from rent spending). Rents, just like corporate and personal incomes, are generally tied very closely to supply and demand fundamentals; one rarely sees an unsustainable "rent bubble" (or "income bubble" for that matter).[citation needed] Therefore a rapid increase of home prices combined with a flat renting market can signal the onset of a bubble. The U.S. price-rent ratio was 18% higher than its long-run average as of October 2004.[18]
This is the reciprocal of the house price-rent ratio. The net rental yield deducts the landlord's expenses (and sometimes estimated rental voids) from the gross rent before doing the above calculation; this is the reciprocal of the house P/E ratio.
Because rents are received throughout the year rather than at its end, both the gross and net rental yields calculated by the above are somewhat less than the true rental yields obtained when taking into account the monthly nature of rental payments.

Housing price indices

The Case–Shiller index 1890–2016, showing a housing bubble peaking in 2006
The Case–Shiller index 1890–2016, showing a housing bubble peaking in 2006

Main article: House price index

Measures of house price are also used in identifying housing bubbles; these are known as house price indices (HPIs).

A noted series of HPIs for the United States are the Case–Shiller indices, devised by American economists Karl Case, Robert J. Shiller, and Allan Weiss. As measured by the Case–Shiller index, the US experienced a housing bubble peaking in the second quarter of 2006 (2006 Q2).

Recent real estate bubbles

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The crash of the Japanese asset price bubble from 1990 on has been very damaging to the Japanese economy.[19] The crash in 2005 affected Shanghai, China's largest city.[20]

As of 2007, real estate bubbles had existed in the recent past or were widely believed to still exist in many parts of the world.[21] including Argentina,[22] New Zealand, Ireland, Spain, Lebanon, Poland,[23] and Croatia.[24] Then U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said in mid-2005 that "at a minimum, there's a little 'froth' (in the U.S. housing market) … it's hard not to see that there are a lot of local bubbles."[25] The Economist magazine, writing at the same time, went further, saying "the worldwide rise in house prices is the biggest bubble in history".[26]

In France, the economist Jacques Friggit publishes each year a study called "Evolution of the price, value and number of property sales in France since the 19th century",[27] showing a high price increase since 2001. Yet, the existence of a real estate bubble in France is discussed by economists.[28] Real estate bubbles are invariably followed by severe price decreases (also known as a house price crash) that can result in many owners holding mortgages that exceed the value of their homes.[29] 11.1 million residential properties, or 23.1% of all U.S. homes, were in negative equity at December 31, 2010.[30] Commercial property values remained around 35% below their mid-2007 peak in the United Kingdom. As a result, banks have become less willing to hold large amounts of property-backed debt, likely a key issue affecting the worldwide recovery in the short term.

By 2006, most areas of the world were thought to be in a bubble state, although this hypothesis, based upon the observation of similar patterns in real estate markets of a wide variety of countries,[31] was subject to controversy. Such patterns include those of overvaluation and, by extension, excessive borrowing based on those overvaluations.[32][33] The U.S. subprime mortgage crisis of 2007–2010, alongside its impacts and effects on economies in various nations, has implied that these trends might have some[which?] common characteristics.[21]

For individual countries, see:

US real estate bubble 2012–present

This section needs to be updated. Please update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information. (March 2020)

The Washington Post writer Lisa Sturtevant thinks that the housing market of 2013 was not indicative of a housing bubble. "A critical difference between the current market and the overheated market of the middle of last decade is the nature of the mortgage market. Stricter underwriting standards have limited the pool of potential homebuyers to those who are most qualified and most likely to be able to pay loans back. The demand this time is based more closely on market fundamentals. And the price growth we’ve experienced recently is 'real.' Or 'more real.'"[35] Other recent research indicates that mid-level managers in securitized finance did not exhibit awareness of problems in overall housing markets.[36]

Economist David Stockman believes that a second housing bubble was started in 2012 and still inflating as of February 2013.[37] Housing inventory began to dwindle starting in early 2012 as hedge fund investors and private equity firms purchase single-family homes in hopes of renting them out while waiting for a housing rebound.[38] Due to the policies of QE3, mortgage interest rates have been hovering at an all-time low, causing real estate values to rise. Home prices have risen unnaturally as much as 25% within one year in metropolitan areas like the San Francisco Bay Area and Las Vegas.[39]

See also

References

  1. ^ a b c Mayer, Christopher (September 2011). "Housing Bubbles: A Survey". Annual Review of Economics. 3 (1): 559–577. doi:10.1146/annurev.economics.012809.103822. ISSN 1941-1383.
  2. ^ Staff, Investopedia. "What Is a Housing Bubble?". Investopedia. Retrieved April 5, 2021.
  3. ^ Ikromov, Nuridding and Abdullah Yavas, 2012a, "Asset Characteristics and Boom and Bust Periods: An Experimental Study". Real Estate Economics. 40, 508–535.
  4. ^ Klein, Ezra (May 28, 2009). "Bill Clinton and the Housing Bubble". Washington Post. Retrieved September 22, 2011.
  5. ^ Brooks, Chris; Katsaris, Apostolos (2005). "Trading rules from forecasting the collapse of speculative bubbles for the S&P 500 composite index" (PDF). The Journal of Business. 78 (5): 2003–2036. doi:10.1086/431450. ISSN 0740-9168.
  6. ^ Nneji, Ogonna; Brooks, Chris; Ward, Charles (2013). "Intrinsic and rational speculative bubbles in the U.S. housing market 1960-2011". Journal of Real Estate Research. 35 (2): 121–151. doi:10.1080/10835547.2013.12091360. ISSN 0896-5803.
  7. ^ Nneji, Ogonna; Brooks, Chris; Ward, Charles W.R. (2013). "House price dynamics and their reaction to macroeconomic changes" (PDF). Economic Modeling. 32: 172–178. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2013.02.007. ISSN 0264-9993.
  8. ^ Christie, Les (May 31, 2011). "Home prices: 'Double-dip' confirmed". CNN Money.
  9. ^ Nocera, Andrea (June 2017). "House prices and monetary polic in the Euro area: a structural VAR analysis" (PDF). European Central Bank - Working Papers (2073).
  10. ^ "Interactive Table: How Bubbly Is Your Housing Market?". Business Week. April 11, 2005. Archived from the original on November 20, 2007. Retrieved June 23, 2009.
  11. ^ seek.estate
  12. ^ "Home - SecurityNational Mortgage Company". snmcblog.com. Retrieved January 6, 2017.
  13. ^ "Affordable Housing Real Estate Resource: Housing Affordability Index". National Association of Realtors. Retrieved June 23, 2009.
  14. ^ seek.estate
  15. ^ "10th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey: 2014" (PDF). Retrieved November 11, 2014.
  16. ^ June 2, 2005 report
  17. ^ Wallison, Peter J (January 5, 2014), "The Bubble is Back", The New York Times, New York, p. A15, retrieved April 14, 2014
  18. ^ Krainer, John; Wei, Chishen (October 1, 2004). "House Prices and Fundamental Value". Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  19. ^ Fackler, Martin (December 25, 2005). "Take It From Japan: Bubbles Hurt". New York Times. Retrieved June 23, 2009.
  20. ^ Lee, Don (January 8, 2006). "A Home Boom Busts". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved June 23, 2009.
  21. ^ a b Putland, Gavin R. (June 1, 2009). "From the subprime to the terrigenous: Recession begins at home". Land Values Research Group. Retrieved June 23, 2009.
  22. ^ "The good times are here again". Global Property Guide. February 28, 2008. Retrieved June 23, 2009.
  23. ^ "The end of Poland's house price boom". Global Property Guide. August 25, 2008. Retrieved June 23, 2009.
  24. ^ "Real estate prices in Adriatic Coast up, Zagreb down". Global Property Guide. August 19, 2008. Retrieved June 23, 2009.
  25. ^ Leonhardt, David (December 25, 2005). "2005: In a Word: Frothy". New York Times. Retrieved June 23, 2009.
  26. ^ "The global housing boom". The Economist. June 16, 2005.
  27. ^ "The French housing market and its environment since 1800". Conseil Général de l'Environnement et du Développement Durable. Retrieved December 21, 2016.
  28. ^ "Bulle immobilière : de quoi parle-t-on et que faut-il craindre ?". Ideal-investisseur. Retrieved December 21, 2016.
  29. ^ Kellington, Tom (2021-05-25). "What happens when real estate bubbles pop?". The Business Daily. Retrieved 2021-05-26.
  30. ^ Philyaw, Jason (8 March 2011). "Underwater mortgages back above 11 million in 4Q". CoreLogic. Retrieved April 14, 2014.
  31. ^ "House Prices Worldwide". Global Property Guide. Retrieved June 23, 2009.
  32. ^ "Headlines in the financial press ranged from “Property slowdown fuels China fears” to “China property correction would be painful, but salutary” (Financial Times, 2014e, p. 3). Housing demand has been increasing due to higher incomes, rapid urbanization and China’s rural urban migration strategy"
  33. ^ "The ups and downs of the real estate market and its relations with the rest of the economy in China". Real Estate, Construction and Economic Development in Emerging Market Economies. 2015. pp. 108–124. doi:10.4324/9781315762289-13. ISBN 9781315762289.
  34. ^ Bajaj, Vikas; Leonhardt, David (December 18, 2008). "Tax Break May Have Helped Cause Housing Bubble". New York Times. Retrieved May 6, 2012.
  35. ^ Sturtevant, Lisa A. (March 26, 2013). "Is the Washington, D.C.-area housing market bubbling again?". The Washington Post.
  36. ^ Wall Street and the Housing Bubble, Princeton University, September 2013
  37. ^ "This is Housing Bubble 2.0: David Stockman".
  38. ^ StreetAuthority (January 15, 2013). "Why Blackstone Bought 16,000 Homes". SeekingAlpha.com. Retrieved January 6, 2017.
  39. ^ "Comeback for California Housing Prices". NBCLosAngeles.com. Retrieved January 6, 2017.

Further reading