Roy Amara | |
---|---|
Born | Roy Charles Amara 7 April 1925 |
Died | 31 December 2007 | (aged 82)
Nationality | American |
Education | MIT, Harvard, Stanford |
Alma mater | Stanford |
Known for | Amara's law |
Spouse |
Margaret Frances Terestre
(m. 1949) |
Children | 3 |
Scientific career | |
Fields | Futurism |
Institutions | SRI International, IFTF |
Roy Charles Amara (7 April 1925[1] – 31 December 2007[2]) was an American researcher, scientist, futurist[3] and president of the Institute for the Future best known for coining Amara's law on the effect of technology. He held a BS in Management, an MS in the Arts and Sciences, and a PhD in Systems Engineering,[4] and also worked at the Stanford Research Institute.
His adage about forecasting the effects of technology has become known as Amara's law and states:
We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.[5][6][7]
The law has been used in explaining nanotechnology.[8]
Reprinted from IEEE transactions on systems, man, and cybernetics, v. SMC-2, no. 1 January 1972
Reprinted from IEEE Transactions on systems, man and cybernetics, v. SMC-2, no. 5 November 1972
Prepared for the White House Conference on the Industrial World Ahead, Washington, D.C., 2–9 February 1972
Presented at the World Future Society Second General Assembly Plenary Session, June 2, 1975