Although similarly sunny, by 2021 Turkey had installed far less solar power than Spain.[7]: 49 Solar power subsidizes coal and fossil gas power.[8]: 9 Every gigawatt of solar power installed would save over US$100 million on gas import costs,[9] and more of the country's electricity might be exported.[10]
Most new solar power is tendered as part of hybrid power plants.[11][12] Building new solar power plants would be cheaper than running existing import-dependent coal plants if they were not subsidized.[13] However, think tankEmber has listed several obstacles to building utility-scale solar plants, such as insufficient new grid capacity for solar power at transformers,[14] a 50 MW cap for any single solar power plant's installed capacity, and large consumers not allowed to sign long-term power purchase agreements for new solar installations.[13] Ember says there is technical potential for 120 GW of rooftop solar, almost 10 times 2023 capacity, which they say could generate 45% of the country’s 2022 demand.[15]
Background
Turkey is far sunnier than Germany, and similar to Spain
Turkey has a sunny climate, ideal for producing solar power. There are about 2600 hours of sunshine each year (about 7 hours a day),[16][17] almost twice that of Germany, yet Germany has five times as much solar capacity.[18] Turkey's average annual solar irradiance is over 1 million terrawatt-hours,[1] that is about 1500 kW·h/(m2·yr) or over 4 kW·h/(m2·d).[16][1] Covering less than 5% of the country's land area with solar panels would provide all the energy needed.[19] Solar power may also be preferable to other renewable energy sources such as wind power and hydroelectricity because wind speed and rainfall can be low in summer, which is when demand peaks due to air conditioning.[20]
Solar water heating has been commonplace in Turkey since the 1970s,[1] but the first licences for solar electricity generation were not granted until 2014.[18]Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said that in 2021 less than 3% of solar potential was being used.[21]
Since 2021 feed-in tariffs for new installations have been in lira (but are maximum about US$0.05 per kWh[17]) and set by the president,[23] but the 10-year period has been criticised as too short.[24] In 2022 there are many applications for hybrid solar and wind licences.[25] As of 2022[update] there are 9 renewable energy cooperatives;[26] it has been suggested that agricultural energy cooperatives would be profitable if farmers had more loans and technical help to establish them.[27]
According to think tank Ember, building new wind and solar power is cheaper than running existing coal plants which depend on imported coal.[13] But they say that there are obstacles to building utility-scale solar, such as lack of new capacity allocated for solar power at transformers,[28] a 50 MW cap for any single solar power plant's installed capacity, and large consumers being unable to sign long-term power purchase agreements for new unlicensed solar installations.[13][18] Ember recommend that rooftop solar should be obligatory on new buildings in Turkey.[15] Owners of these small unlicensed installations can sell to the grid at the same price as they buy.[18]
Economics
Solar (yellow band) generates a small but increasing share of electricity
As in many countries for many types of variable renewable energy, from time to time the government invites companies to tender sealed bids to construct a certain capacity of solar power to connect to certain electricity substations. By accepting the lowest bid the government commits to buy at that price per kWh for a fixed number of years, or up to a certain total amount of power. This provides certainty for investors against highly volatile wholesale electricity prices.[29][30][31] However they may still risk exchange rate volatility if they borrowed in foreign currency.[32] For example as Turkey does not have enough solar cell manufacturing capacity they would likely be bought from China and so would have to be paid for in foreign currency.[33] In 22/23 a third of solar cell exports from China went to Turkey.[34]
In 2021 prices at these "solar auctions" were similar to or lower than average wholesale electricity prices, and large-scale solar for companies own use is also competitive; but macroeconomic challenges and exchange rate volatility are causing uncertainty.[35]: 63 Installation costs are low[36] and according to the Turkish Solar Energy Industry Association the industry provides jobs for 100,000 people.[37] As part of the fourth round of solar auctions which are planned to total 1000 MW in lots of 50 MW and 100 MW,[38] in April 2022 three lots of 100 MW were auctioned at prices around 400 lira per MWh,[39] around 25 euros at the exchange rate at that time.[40] The tender included a 60% foreign exchange weight clause, which partly protects against currency volatility,[40] and selling on the open market is also allowed.[38]
Modelling by Carbon Tracker indicates that new solar power will become cheaper than all existing coal plants by 2023.[41][42] According to a May 2022 report from think tank Ember wind and solar saved 7 billion dollars on gas imports in the preceding 12 months.[28] Every gigawatt of solar power installed would save over US$100 million on gas import costs.[9] According to a 2022 study by Shura almost all coal power could be replaced by renewables (mainly solar) by 2030.[43] Export of solar power could increase together eventually with hydrogen produced by clean electricity.[44]Operation and maintenance costs of concentrated solar power is about 2 UScent/kWh.[45]: 132 As well as reducing electricity prices, above a certain level increasing solar power tends to stabilize them.[46]
Heating and hot water
Sales of vacuum tube hot water systems have exceeded flat-plate collectors since 2019.[1][6]: 139 Vacuum tubes are more efficient for households than flat plate.[47] Turkey is second in the world in solar water heating collector capacity after China,[6]: 41 with about 26 million square metres generating 1.15 million tonnes of oil equivalent heat energy each year.[1] About two-thirds is residential and a third industrial.[1] Installed domestic hot water systems are typically convection without pumping, with 2 flat plate collectors, each nearly 2 m².[1] Solar combi (space and water heating backed up by gas) is starting to be installed in villas and hotels.[1]
The industry is well developed for hot water with high quality manufacturing and export capacity, but less so for space heating, and is hampered by subsidies for coal heating.[48]: 36 A 2018 study found that solar water heating saved on average 13% energy and increased the value of properties.[49]
In 2021 the IEA recommended that the Turkish government should support solar water heating because "technology and infrastructure quality needs to improve significantly to maximise its potential".[35]
Solar heating is also used for agriculture in Turkey, for example drying produce with solar air heaters.[1]
Photovoltaics (PV) growth was supported by the government during the 2010s.[35] Monthly average efficiencies are from 12–17% depending on tilt and climate type; specific yield decreases with elevation.[51] In 2020 solar cell manufacturing started in Turkey,[52] and in 2022 Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Fatih Dönmez claimed that Turkey could assemble enough solar panels annually to produce 8 GW of power.[53] Industry sometimes uses its own solar power for processes which need a lot of electricity, such as electrolysis.[54] As of 2020[update], unlike in the EU, obsolete solar panels are not classified as electronic waste and recycling criteria are not defined.[55] Solar PV has been suggested at public charging stations.[56]Turkey's greenhouse gas emissions attributable to solar PV are estimated at around 30 g Co2eq/kWh for utility scale and 30–60 g for rooftop;[57] emissions for coal and natural gas are over 1000 g and about 400 g respectively.
Solar farms
The largest solar farm is Karapınar, which started generation in 2020 and is planned to exceed 1 GW by the end of 2022.[58][59] If a solar power plant is not cleaned for a year it can lose over 5% efficiency.[60] Environmental groups say that half of opencast mines for brown coal (lignite) in Turkey could be converted to 13 GW of solar farms (some with battery storage) generating 19 TWh per year, as much of the electrical infrastructure is already in place for the 10 GW of the 22 adjacent lignite-fired power stations.[61] Aluminium producers favour solar as they use a lot of electricity for electrolysis.[62]
Rooftop
As of 2022[update] there is about 1 GW of rooftop solar,[63] companies are installing a lot,[64] and the government is aiming for 2–4 GW by the early 2030s.[65] If total electricity generated by solar panels exceeds 50% of the capacity of the local distribution transformer no more will be approved in that area.[65]
Residential
The limit for a household is 10 kW.[17] The payback period is very long because electricity from the grid to householders is subsidised a lot. As of 2019[update], the payback period of rooftop solar with net metering for homeowners and businesses was estimated at 11 years; removal of VAT and the fixed government approval fee, and attaching borrowing for installation to the property's mortgage has been suggested to shorten this.[66]
Non-residential
In general non-residential grid power is more expensive than residential, so the payback period is much shorter. From 2023 new buildings larger than 5,000 square meters will have to generate at least five per cent of their energy from renewables.[67] A 2021 study in Ankara found far more rooftop potential for public and commercial buildings than residential.[68] The study also suggested increasing technical potential by suitable roof design in new buildings.[68] Solar PV used with heat pumps may be able to make buildings zero energy in the Mediterranean Region.[69] Aluminium producer Tosyalı [tr] claimed in 2022 to be installing the world's largest rooftop solar power system on the roofs of its buildings.[70]
Agriculture
Farmers are financially supported to install solar panels, for example to power irrigation pumps, and can sell some electricity.[71][72]Agrivoltaics has been suggested as suitable for wheat,[73] maize and some other shade-loving vegetables.[74] Hybrid solar and biogas has been suggested, for example on dairy farms.[75]Rainwater harvesting has been suggested.[60]
Mehmet Bulut of the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources suggested in 2021 that concentrated solar power (CSP) could be co-located with photovoltaics in the south-east.[76] CSP systems generate electricity by using lenses or mirrors to reflect the sun's rays onto a central receiver, which converts the light into heat, which in turn is converted to electricity. Turkey's first solar power tower, the Greenway CSP Mersin Solar Tower Plant in Mersin, was constructed in 2013 and has an installed power of 5 MW.[77]
^"2022 energy outlook"(PDF). Industrial Development Bank of Turkey. transferring money from solar, wind and hydroelectric power plants with low operating costs to power plants with high operating costs such as imported coal and natural gas
^Kursun, Berrin (9 April 2022). "Role of solar power in shifting the Turkish electricity sector towards sustainability". Clean Energy. Oxford University Press. 6 (2): 1078–1089. doi:10.1093/ce/zkac002.
^Flora, Arjun; Özenç, Bengisu; Wynn, Gerard (December 2019). "New Incentives Brighten Turkey's Rooftop Solar Sector"(PDF). Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. Archived(PDF) from the original on 21 December 2019. Retrieved 21 December 2019.
