Loss Distribution Approach

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Loss distribution approach is an Advanced Measurement Approach to operational risk management. Under this approach distributions for severity and frequency of individual risk types and lines of business are estimated. The product of each pair of distributions gives the individual Value at Risk for the lines of business and from the simple arithmetic sum of individual VaRs, the cumulative operational risk for the entire organization is determined.

Advantages

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  1. This works better than the Basic Indicator Approach in that it allows for interpretation of operational risk from individual lines of business
  2. There are no standard implementations of this approach and therefore each implementation has the potential to uniquely cover a given organization's blue-print
  3. It allows better monitoring and control over operations as individual lines of business and risk centers are separately assessed

Disadvantages

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  1. There are no standard implementations and therefore risk measurements from different organizations cannot be compared

Reception

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Her authorship of NCERT texts that are -

Arrow Lind theorem

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Arrow Lind theorem states that the risk arising out of a public project falls to zero as the number of people benefiting from it tends to infinity. In other words, the government can ignore the returns coming from a project if the number of individual tax payers is large enough.

Significance and applications

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Assumptions

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The theorem has three assumptions:

  1. the government foots all costs initially and only when the benefits are being distributed should it attempt recovery through taxation
  2. the return of the project must be independent of individual income. In case it is not, the risk premium ρ > 0 if they are positively correlated, and ρ < 0 if negatively correlated.
  3. the returns must be spread out over a reasonably large number of individuals

Although the returns of public projects are usually very well spread out (highways, schools, hospitals et cetera) it is usually hard to justify the first assumption since the money is almost invariably taken out of the government's revenue stream and hence an individual's income.

The theorem has extensive ramifications in the fields of cost-benefit analysis, welfare economy, public administration and urban planning, macro-economics and such. The most direct impact is on costing of public sector projects where the theorem justifies using a riskless discount rate when considering expected returns.

The theorem was first given by Kenneth Arrow, winner of the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel in 1972, and Robert Lind in 1970.

See also

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Black Litterman model

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Navleen Kumar

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