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((Short description|Prophecy recorded after the fact))
((about|historiography and theology|paranormal criticism|Postdiction|the scientific technique|Retrodiction))
((italic title))
((Refimprove|date=September 2014))
'''''Vaticinium ex eventu''''' (((IPA|la-x-classic|wäːt̪ɪˈkɪnɪ.ʊ̃ˑ ɛks eːˈwɛn̪t̪uː|lang|link=yes)), "prophecy from the event") or '''''post eventum''''' ("after the event") is a technical [[theology|theological]] or [[historiography|historiographical]] term referring to a [[prophecy]] written after the author already had information about the events being "foretold". The text is written so as to appear that the prophecy had taken place before the event, when in fact it was written after the events supposedly predicted. ''Vaticinium ex eventu'' is a form of [[hindsight bias]]. The concept is similar to [[postdiction]].

==Examples==

===In religious writings===

The Babylonian "[[Marduk]] Prophecy", a text describing the travels of the Marduk idol from [[Babylon]], "prophesies" of the statue’s seizure during the sack of the city by [[Mursilis I]] in 1531 BC, [[Assyria]], when [[Tukulti-Ninurta I]] overthrew [[Kashtiliash IV]] in 1225 BC and took the idol to [[Assur]], and [[Elam]], when [[Kudur-Nahhunte]] ransacked the city and pilfered the statue around 1160 BC. A copy<ref>Tablet K. 2158+</ref> was found in the House of the Exorcist at Assur, whose contents date from 713–612 BC and is closely related thematically to another ''vaticinium ex eventu'' text called the Shulgi prophecy, which probably followed it in a sequence of tablets. Both compositions present a favorable view of Assyria.

The [[Book of Daniel]] utilizes ''vaticinium ex eventu'', by its seeming foreknowledge of events from Alexander's conquest up to the persecution of Antiochus IV in the summer of 164 BCE.<ref>((cite book|title=The Book of Daniel: Composition and Reception|volume=1|editor= John Joseph Collins, Peter W. Flint|location=Leiden & Boston|publisher=Brill|year=2001|series=supplements to Vetus Testamentum ( vol. 83)|isbn=9004226753|author=Lester L. Grabbe|chapter=A Dan(iel) For All Seasons|page=230)).</ref>  <!-- First one was his hope, which luckily came true, so lucky guess. It does not make him a prophet, merely an agitator and propagandist, unless we mean that Marx, Engels and Lenin were prophets. Second one is trivial: all people die. So commenting it out. However, Daniel knows neither about the re-dedication of the Temple (1 Maccabees 4:52–54) nor about Antiochus' death, both of which happened late in November and December of 164 BCE. Therefore, Daniel 11:40–12:3 is no longer vaticina ex eventu but genuine predictive prophecy.<ref>Ehling, Untersuchungen zur Geschichte der späten Seleukiden, 111, esp. fn 1; D. Gera, Dov and W. Horowitz, "Antiochus IV in Life and Death: Evidence from the Babylonian Astronomical Diaries", JAOS 117 (1997): 240-52; J. J. Collins, Daniel: A Commentary on the Book of Daniel (Hermeneia; Minneapolis, MN: Augsburg Press), 388--389 ((cite book|title=The Book of Daniel: Composition and Reception|volume=1|editor= John Joseph Collins, Peter W. Flint|location=Leiden & Boston|publisher=Brill|year=2001|series=supplements to Vetus Testamentum ( vol. 83)|isbn=9004226753|author=Lester L. Grabbe|chapter=A Dan(iel) For All Seasons)) page 230.</ref>--> The stories of the first half are legendary in origin, and the visions of the second the product of anonymous authors in the [[Maccabees|Maccabean]] period (2nd century BCE).((sfn|Collins|2002|p=2)) Its inclusion in [[Ketuvim]] (Writings) rather than [[Nevi'im]] (Prophets) was likely because it appeared after the canon for those books had closed, and the dominant view among Jews and scholars is that Daniel is not in any case a prophetic book but an [[apocalypse]].

Statements attributed to [[Jesus]] in the [[Gospels]] that foretell the destruction of Jerusalem (e.g., Mark 13:14, Luke 21:20)<ref>((Cite book|last=Browning|first=W. R. F.|url=http://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780199543984.001.0001/acref-9780199543984|title=A Dictionary of the Bible|publisher=Oxford University Press|year=2000|isbn=978-0-19-954398-4|edition=2|pages=387|language=en|chapter=Vaticinium ex eventu (or post eventum)|doi=10.1093/acref/9780199543984.001.0001|orig-year=1996))</ref> and its temple are considered to be examples of ''vaticinia ex eventu'' by the great majority of [[Biblical scholars]] (with regard to [[siege of Jerusalem (AD 70)|the siege of Jerusalem in AD 70]], in which the [[Second Temple]] was destroyed).<ref name="Soulen">((cite book|last1=Soulen|first1=Richard N.|last2=Soulen|first2=R. Kendall|title=Handbook of Biblical Criticism|date=2001|publisher=Westminster John Knox Press|isbn=9780664223144|page=204|edition=3rd|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=ooGh9TTe0jUC&q=vaticinium|access-date=19 February 2015))</ref><ref name="Hengel">((cite book|first=Martin|last=Hengel|title=Studies in the Gospel of Mark|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=vVj7DwAAQBAJ&pg=PA127|date=14 March 2003|orig-year=1985|publisher=Wipf and Stock Publishers|isbn=978-1-72520-078-4|page=127 fn. 86))</ref> However, there are some scholars who only see the verses from Luke as constituting a ''vaticinium ex eventu'' (and those of Mark not),<ref name="Hengel"/> while a few even go as far as to deny that the verses from Luke refer to the destruction of the temple in AD 70.<ref name="Soulen"/>

===Secular===
*The Ancient world saw the technique of ''vaticinium ex eventu'' used by a wide variety of figures, from [[Pindar]] and [[Herodotus]] to [[Horace]] and [[Virgil]].<ref>J. J. O'Hara, ''Death and the Optimistic Prophecy in Vergil's Aeneid'' (2014) pp. 128-9</ref>
*The ''[[Divine Comedy]]'' by [[Dante Alighieri]] includes a number of such prophecies of Dante's own exile from Florence.
*In ''[[Jerusalem Delivered]]'', [[Torquato Tasso]] uses the ''vaticinium ex eventu'' trope in presaging the discovery of America by [[Christopher Columbus]]: "Un uom de la Liguria avrà ardimento / a l'incognito corso esporsi in prima"<ref>((cite book|last1=Tasso|first1=Torquato|title=Gerusalemme Liberata|date=1971|publisher=Einaudi|location=Turin|page=459))</ref>
*References in the late correspondence of [[Virginia Woolf]] to "how I love this savage medieval water [...] and myself so eliminated"<ref>Quoted in H. Lee, ''Virginia Woolf'' (1996) p. 752</ref> are sometimes taken as presaging her suicide by drowning a few months later: the danger of ''vaticinium ex eventu'' has however also been observed.<ref>Olivia Laing, ''To the River'' (2011) pp. 195-8</ref>

==See also==
((Columns-list|colwidth=22em|
*[[Eschatology]]
*[[Hindsight bias]]
*[[Parapsychology]]
*[[Precognition]]
*[[Prefiguration (theology)|Prefiguration]]
*[[Preterism]]
))

==Notes==
((reflist))

==References==
*[http://bible_dic.enacademic.com/2037/vaticinium_ex_eventu_(or_post_eventum) ''Vaticinium ex eventu'' (or ''post eventum'')] Dictionary of the Bible
* ((Cite book
  | last       = Collins
  | first      = John J.
  | author-link = John J. Collins
  | chapter    = Current Issues in the Study of Daniel
  | editor1-last  = Collins
  | editor1-first = John J. 
  | editor2-last  = Flint
  | editor2-first = Peter W. 
  | editor3-last  = VanEpps
  | editor3-first = Cameron
  | title      = The Book of Daniel: Composition and Reception
  | year       = 2002
  | publisher  = BRILL
  | chapter-url        = https://books.google.com/books?id=oAVPfTe_wkYC&pg=PA2
  | isbn      = 978-9004116757
  ))
((Historiography))
[[Category:Prophecy]]
[[Category:Latin religious words and phrases]]
[[Category:Cognitive biases]]
[[Category:Biblical criticism]]
[[Category:Historicity of the Bible]]

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