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The Division of Longman (Qld) in the House of Representatives | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Registered | 111,652 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Turnout | 84.26% 7.42 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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A by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Longman took place on Saturday 28 July 2018, following the resignation of incumbent Labor MP Susan Lamb.[1]
In early counting, within an hour of the close of polls, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's psephologist Antony Green's electoral computer had predicted Labor to retain the electorate with an increased margin.[2]
The by-election occurred on the same day as four other by-elections for the House of Representatives, colloquially known as Super Saturday.
Due to the High Court ruling against Senator Katy Gallagher on 9 May 2018 as part of the ongoing parliamentary eligibility crisis, Lamb and three other MPs in the same situation announced their parliamentary resignations later that day,[1] while the Perth incumbent resigned for family reasons.[3] The Speaker announced on 24 May 2018 that he had scheduled the by-elections to occur on 28 July 2018. Popularly labelled "Super Saturday", the occurrence of five simultaneous federal by-elections is unprecedented in Australian political history.[4] The others are:
Mark Latham, Labor leader between December 2003 and January 2005, voiced a robocall authorised by Pauline Hanson, in an attempt to discourage Labor voting and instead encouraged minor party voting.[5]
The Labor party and Liberal National placed the far right anti immigration Australia First Party last on its preferences.[6][7]
Key dates in relation to the by-election are:[8]
Candidates (11) in ballot paper order[9] | |||
---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Background | |
Liberal Democrats | Lloyd Russell | Business consultant.[10] | |
Australia First | Jim Saleam | Party leader. Contested Lindsay at the 2016 election and Cook at the 2013 election.[9] | |
Democratic Labour | Gregory Bell | Truck driver.[9] | |
Independent | Jackie Perkins | Self-employed mobile veterinarian.[11] | |
Science | James Noonan | Criminology and criminal justice graduate.[12] | |
One Nation | Matthew Stephen | Caboolture businessman. Ran in Sandgate at the 2017 state election.[13] | |
People | John Reece | Ran as an independent candidate in Longman at the 2010 federal election.[14] | |
Labor | Susan Lamb | Previous MP for Longman elected at the 2016 federal election.[15] | |
Liberal National | Trevor Ruthenberg | One-term MP for Kallangur elected at the 2012 state election.[16] | |
Country | Blair Verrier | Certified Practising Accountant (CPA).[17] | |
Greens | Gavin Behrens | Caboolture father and IT professional. Ran in Morayfield at the 2017 state election.[18] |
Date | Firm | Commissioned by | Sample | Primary vote | TPP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LNP | ONP | GRN | OTH | UND | ALP | LNP | |||||
24−26 July 2018 | Newspoll | The Australian[19] | 1015 | 40% | 36% | 14% | 5% | 5% | − | 51% | 49% | |
17−19 July 2018 | ReachTEL | Courier Mail[20][21] | 578 | 35.8% | 37.9% | 13.9% | (OTH) | 4.3% | 3.9% | 49% | 51% | |
26 June 2018 | ReachTEL | Courier Mail[22][23] | 814 | 39.0% | 35.5% | 14.7% | (OTH) | 6.6% | 4.1% | 49% | 51% | |
21 June 2018 | ReachTEL | Australia Institute[24] | 727 | 39.1% | 34.9% | 14.7% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 50% | 50% | |
2 June 2018 | ReachTEL | Sky News[25] | >800 | 35% | 38% | (OTH) | 2% | 14% | 11% | 48% | 52% | |
10 May 2018 | ReachTEL | Australia Institute[26] | 1277 | 32.5% | 36.7% | 15.1% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 47% | 53% | |
2016 election | 35.4% | 39.0% | 9.4% | 4.4% | 11.8% | 50.8% | 49.2% |
Further information: Electoral results for the Division of Longman |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Labor | Susan Lamb | 35,203 | 39.84 | +4.45 | |
Liberal National | Trevor Ruthenberg | 26,170 | 29.61 | −9.40 | |
One Nation | Matthew Stephen | 14,061 | 15.91 | +6.50 | |
Greens | Gavin Behrens | 4,264 | 4.83 | +0.44 | |
Independent | Jackie Perkins | 2,379 | 2.69 | +2.69 | |
Liberal Democrats | Lloyd Russell | 1,762 | 1.99 | +1.99 | |
Country | Blair Verrier | 1,387 | 1.57 | +1.57 | |
Democratic Labour | Gregory Bell | 1,043 | 1.18 | +1.18 | |
Science | James Noonan | 970 | 1.10 | +1.10 | |
Australia First | Jim Saleam | 709 | 0.80 | +0.80 | |
People's Party | John Reece | 420 | 0.48 | +0.48 | |
Total formal votes | 88,368 | 93.93 | +2.46 | ||
Informal votes | 5,707 | 6.07 | −2.46 | ||
Turnout | 94,075 | 84.26 | −7.42 | ||
Two-party-preferred result | |||||
Labor | Susan Lamb | 48,116 | 54.45 | +3.66 | |
Liberal National | Trevor Ruthenberg | 40,252 | 45.55 | −3.66 | |
Labor hold | Swing | +3.66 |