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The 2024 Liberal Democratic Party presidential election will be held on September 2024 to elect the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan for a 3-year term. The winner of the election will effectively become the Prime Minister of Japan and will lead the party in the next Japanese general election (if it takes place after the leadership election) and the next House of Councillors election in July 2025.
The leadership election will take place amidst the LDP's controversy over its affiliation with the Unification Church new religious movement following Shinzo Abe's assassination in 2022, an ongoing slush fund scandal involving the conservative Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai (Seiwakai) and Shisuikai factions, and other issues which has led to incumbent president and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida becoming the most unpopular Prime minister since the LDP's return to power in 2012.[1][2][3]
Former Foreign minister Fumio Kishida was elected President of the LDP in 2021 after defeating opponent Taro Kono in a second round runoff, becoming the Prime Minister on 4 October 2021.[4]
Main article: Assassination of Shinzo Abe |
Further information: Unification Church § In Japan (1970-2023) |
Following Shinzo Abe's assassination in 2022, the Unification Church new religious movement was shown to have significant political influence in the LDP, and the popularity for the party, as well as Kishida's approval rating decreased.[5] Kishida reshuffled his cabinet on 10 August 2022 in an effort to remove cabinet ministers associated with the church from the government in order to regain public trust in his government.[5][6]
Kishida reshuffled his cabinet once again on 13 September 2023 as his premiership continued to lose public support. The reshuffle was highlighted for its comparatively high proportion of women in official roles and the inclusion of members of opposing factions in high-ranking roles such as Taro Kono and Toshimitsu Motegi.[7]
Main article: 2023–2024 Japanese slush fund scandal |
In November 2023, it was discovered that members of the conservative Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai (Seiwakai) and Shisuikai factions failed to report over JP¥600 million (US$4.06 million) in campaign funds, which they had instead placed in unlawful slush funds. This led to a scandal concerning the misuse of campaign funds by these members.[8][9]
Amidst the escalating scandal, Kishida declared on 13 December 2023 that he was dismissing Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yasutoshi Nishimura, Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Junji Suzuki, and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Ichiro Miyashita. Hiroyuki Miyazawa, the deputy minister of defense, was also removed from office. All the expelled officials belonged to the Seiwakai faction.[10][11][12] The opposition Constitutional Democratic Party submitted a vote of no confidence against Matsuno and the entire Kishida's cabinet as a result of the scandal.[13][14] Although both motions failed due to the LDP's majority in the National Diet, it was the closest no confidence vote in decades due to the rare unity between Japan's opposition parties in voting in favor of the vote.[15]
The first arrests took place on 7 January 2024, with former deputy minister of education Yoshitaki Ikeda and Kazuhiro Kakinuma, his assistant, being accused of concealing ¥48 million that the Seiwakai earned between 2018 and 2022. The National Police Agency justified their arrest by claiming that there was a chance of evidence destruction. Ikeda was expelled from the LDP after details of the arrests were made public.[16]
On 7 December 2023, Kishida announced his resignation as leader of the moderate Kōchikai faction, which he led since 2012 and announced he will leave the faction due to the scandal. A month later on 18 January 2024, Kishida announced that he was considering dissolving the faction and announced a war cabinet of the ongoing scandal.[17][18]
Based on opinion polls[26][27][28][29][30]
Fieldwork date | Polling firm | Sample size[vague] | Shigeru Ishiba | Shinjirō Koizumi | Taro Kono | Sanae Takaichi | Yoshihide Suga | Yōko Kamikawa | Fumio Kishida | Seiko Noda | Toshimitsu Motegi | Others | NOT/ UD/NA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4–5 May 2024 | JNN | 1,013 | 24.2 | 14.1 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 7 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 10.5[a] | 15.3 |
13–14 Apr 2024 | ANN | 1,037 | 21 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1[b] | 24 |
22–24 Mar 2024 | Yomiuri/NNN | 1,020 | 22 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3[c] | 23[d] |
16–17 Mar 2024 | ANN | 1,031 | 22 | 18 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1[e] | 21 |
8–11 Mar 2024 | Jiji Press | 1,160 | 18.6 | 12.1 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 2.6[f] | 40.4 |
9–10 Mar 2024 | Kyodo News | 1,043 | 22.2 | 15.4 | 7.9 | 8.3 | – | 10.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 3.3[g] | 24.5 |
24–25 Feb 2024 | ANN | 1,034 | 23 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1[h] | 34 |
17–18 Feb 2024 | Mainichi | 1,024 | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | – | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | – | 34 |
16–18 Febr 2024 | Yomiuri/NNN | 1,083 | 21 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2[i] | 12 |
26–28 Jan 2024 | Nikkei/TV Tokyo | 969 | 22 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6[j] | 17 |
8–11 Dec 2023 | Jiji Press | 2,000 | 15 | 16 | 8.8 | 5 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.6 | – | – | 1 | 40.3 |
18–19 Nov 2023 | Asahi | 1,086 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 8 | – | – | 7 | – | 1 | 1[k] | 36 |
11–12 Nov 2023 | Sankei Shimbun/FNN | N/A | 18.2 | 16 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.5 | – | – | 5.2 | 32.3 |
23–24 Sep 2023 | ANN | 1,018 | 18 | 15 | 14 | 5 | 7 | – | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3[l] | 22 |
1–8 Jul 2023 | Asahi | 2,113 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 10 | – | 10 | 2 | – | 3[m] | 27 |
3–4 Dec 2022 | JNN | 1,227 | 11 | – | 19 | 5 | 7 | – | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1[n] | 39 |