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Tropical Storm Hilary, which caused damaging floods across the state in August 2023

Since 1854, 85 tropical cyclones affected the U.S. state of California, including a hurricane in 1858 that produced hurricane-force winds near San Diego. Due to cold sea surface temperatures and the typical track of most Pacific hurricanes, there has only been one recorded landfall of a tropical storm – a storm in 1939 that hit Los Angeles, killing 45 people in the state.

In most cases, rainfall is the only effect that these cyclones have on California. Sometimes, the rainfall is severe enough to cause flooding and damage. Since 1850, only six other tropical cyclones have brought gale-force winds to the Southwestern United States. The remnants of Tropical Storm Jennifer-Katherine in 1963, Hurricane Emily in 1965, and Hurricane Joanne in 1972 produced gale-force winds and heavy rainfall in the state. Former Hurricane Kathleen in 1976 killed at least nine people in the state from heavy rainfall, with severe flooding affecting the city of Ocotillo. Tropical Storm Nora in 1997 entered the state, producing gale-force winds and heavy rainfall that led to three traffic deaths. The remnants of Hurricane Kay in 2022 produced flooding and 100 mph (160 km/h) wind gusts across southern California, killing one person. In August 2023, the remnants of Hurricane Hilary produced 87 mph (140 km/h) winds along with heavy rainfall, with floods killing one person.

Climatology

Map of warning breakpoints

There are two basic reasons why tropical cyclones rarely strike California at tropical storm intensity or higher: Cold sea surface temperatures, and the usual upper level steering winds in the eastern Pacific, with sea surface temperatures being more important.

Tropical cyclones usually require very warm ocean water to depth, generally above 26.5 °C (80 °F) extending to a depth of 50 meters (160 ft).[1] However, the waters off California are cold even in summer. They rarely rise above 24 °C (75 °F) in near-shore southern California,[2] and usually remain below 17 °C (63 °F) along most of the rest of the coast and outer coastal waters, although El Niño events may warm the waters somewhat. This is due primarily to the extensive upwelling of colder sub-surface waters caused by the prevailing northwesterly winds acting through the Ekman effect. The winds drive surface water to the right of the wind flow, that is offshore, which draws water up from below to replace it. The upwelling further cools the already cool California Current which runs north to south along coastal California and even much of coastal Baja California. This is the same mechanism which produces coastal California's characteristic fog. By contrast, near-shore ocean temperatures along the East Coast from New York south to Virginia are normally near 26.5 °C (80 °F), and often near 29.4 °C (85 °F) from South Carolina to Florida in the summer and fall. This is also the reason there are so many more tropical fish found on the East Coast than on the West Coast.

The second reason is the general path of tropical cyclones in the eastern Pacific. They generally move north-westward or westward due to steering by the prevailing upper-level winds, which takes them far out to sea and away from land.[2]

These factors make eastern Pacific landfalls improbable north of about central Baja California. In those instances when upper level steering winds do allow a more northerly path, much cooler sea surface temperatures quickly weaken tropical cyclones that approach California, although torrential rainfall can still occur. For example, the September 24-hour rainfall record for Los Angeles is held by the 1939 Long Beach Tropical Storm, as of January 2007.[3]

While rare, tropical cyclones do affect California, occasionally very seriously as far as rainfall is concerned. A modern repeat of the 1858 storm is estimated to cause damages of hundreds of millions of dollars.[4] A repeat of the 1939 tropical storm would cause around 200 million dollars in damage.[4] The most serious damage would be due to rains rather than winds or storm surge, although distant hurricanes may still create heavy surf,[5] possibly injuring or killing people. Nora caused millions in damage and skirted extreme southeastern California.

Preparedness

When Hurricane Linda was forecast to make landfall, statements about its possible impact were issued by the Oxnard, California office of the National Weather Service. They stressed the uncertainty of a forecast that far in the future.

When Nora was threatening, "unprecedented coordination" was required between the NHC and several other agencies. The coordination was "smooth and effective". However, no inland tropical storm warnings were issued for any area in the United States as Nora was approaching from the south.[6]

There are seven Pacific Coast breakpoints in the United States. They are, from north to south, Point Piedras Blancas, Point Sal, Point Conception, Point Mugu, the mouth of the San Gabriel River, San Mateo Point, and the mouth of the Tijuana River (although places outside this area can be selected if conditions warrant).[7] Should there be the threat of landfall, warnings or watches would be issued for those sections of the coast, which occurred for the first time ahead of Hurricane Hilary in 2023.[8] It is highly unlikely that any tropical cyclone will threaten areas farther north, due to the stronger influence of the California Current.

List of tropical cyclones

Hurricanes that affect California are mainly the remnants of hurricanes or tropical storms. In the twentieth century, only four eastern Pacific tropical cyclones have brought tropical storm-force winds to the Continental United States: the 1939 Long Beach Tropical Storm, Tropical Storm Joanne in 1972, Tropical Storm Kathleen in 1976, and Tropical Storm Nora in 1997.[4]

Pre–1930

1930s

1940s

1950s

1960s

1970s

Hurricane Heather on October 5, 1977

1980s

1990s

The remnants of Hurricane Nora over the southwestern United States

2000s

2010s

Hurricane Odile on September 14, 2014

2020s

Road damage in Death Valley National Park from Hurricane Hilary

Climatological statistics

Most tropical cyclones impacting California do so in the month of September. September 1939 was "unprecedented" in having four tropical cyclones impact the state.[73]

Number of recorded storms affecting California, by month of year
Month Number of storms
January
0
February
0
March
0
April
0
May
0
June
4
July
7
August
21
September
41
October
12
November
0
December
0
Number of recorded storms affecting California by decade
Period Number of storms
Pre-1930
11
1930s
7
1940s
3
1950s
5
1960s
3
1970s
7
1980s
9
1990s
7
2000s
11
2010s
18
2020s
5

Deadliest storms

The following is a list of all known tropical cyclone-related deaths in California.

Name Year Number of deaths
Unnamed 1939 45–93
Unnamed 1932 15
Kathleen 1976 11
Nora 1997 3–4
Flossie 2001 2
Guillermo 1997 1
Dolores 2015 1
Kay 2022 1
Hilary 2023 1

See also

References

Citations

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Bibliography