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wow, what an excellent article. Kudos. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 65.96.190.185 (talk • contribs)
This article is or was the subject of a Wiki Education Foundation-supported course assignment. Further details are available on the course page. Student editor(s): Jl9033.
Above undated message substituted from Template:Dashboard.wikiedu.org assignment by PrimeBOT (talk) 07:51, 17 January 2022 (UTC)
Someone added housepricecrash.co.uk to the external links section again. Is that spam or a legitimate site? How can you tell (besides the fact that it keeps getting added)? JHP 00:44, 17 May 2006 (UTC)
There are several chronic external link spammers. Please remove them if you see them. Please be careful not to throw the baby out with the bath water, however. The IMF, The Economist, and CEPR are all reputable and relevant sources. JHP 23:28, 29 August 2006 (UTC)
The chronic spammers are:
Please dont take this the wrong way, Monkeyman.
Nice article, but I'm not sure that it is suffiently world rather than US orientated, as most of the various ratios I've never heard of before (despite being involved in housing in the UK for a great many years) and I therefore expect they are in use in the US only - indeed at least one of them only links to USA statistics.
I have added two ratios used in the UK: the rental yield and the Affordability Index. The Affordability Index is published by the Nationwide Building Society and Rowntrees, and when I've got time I will search out these links and add them.
I wrote a dissertation for a master's degree that included evaluating the income/price ratio, and the Building Societys Association (or was it the Council For Mortgage Lenders - cannot remember) economist criticised it by saying it took no account of the actual cost of the mortgage payments (which in the UK usually vary with interest rates), and I agree with him. However it does fluctuate more than the Affordability Index, and thus it helps to add drama and sensation to journalists and book-writers accounts.
Shouldnt the ratios be moved to their own article, Property ratios?
No offence, but I would not have thought that the pop books from the "Rich Dad Poor Dad" author were worth adding to the bibliography, and I have read them.
I've recently read a book about Bubbles by an American banker that includes discussion of UK and US housing bubbles, and when I've found out the name and author will add it.
A seperate comment about rental yields: statistics of these are difficult to get hold of, and it would be great if people would add links to various sites where they can be obtained online.
Thanks. --81.104.12.19 18:49, 18 July 2006 (UTC)
Calverley, John P., Bubbles and how to survive them, N. Brealey, 2004 ISBN 1857883489
These books, which I have read, have got either nothing or so very little I didnt notice it about housing bubbles, and I think they ought to be deleted:
Robert Kiyosaki (2000). Rich Dad, Poor Dad: What the Rich Teach Their Kids About Money—That the Poor and Middle Class Do Not!, New York: Warner Business Books. ISBN 0446677450. Burton R. Malkiel (2004). A Random Walk Down Wall Street, 8th ed., New York: W. W. Norton and Company, Inc. ISBN 0393325350 John Allen Paulos (2003). A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market, New York: Basic Books. ISBN 0465054811.
There may be other books which I have not read which also ought to be removed.
Hi, why is it unacceptable to link to news sites that maintain daily lists of relevant articles? I noticed a large number of links to blogs and other sites under the United States housing bubble topic, but it looks like there are different rules for this page...?
Thanks. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 69.107.76.132 (talk • contribs) 2006-07-23 18:31:31 UTC
This article seems a bit mangled due to too line breaks in links in the markup. Have fixed some of it, but references still need work. 81.1.104.246 22:05, 20 September 2007 (UTC)
Refrain from attributing the appearance of housing bubbles to speculative. Recent academic research, discussed in Economic bubble, shows that the phenomenon of price ascension and crash appears even when speculation is not possible or when overconfidence effect is absent. Hence, speculation cannot be the sole reason for the appearance of bubbles.
Maybe I just don't see it... but what is a good or bad price-rent ratio? I see the handy dandy formula, but is a 1 good? a 20? a 100? What ratio indicates if it is over-valued? 63.139.220.200 (talk) 21:14, 3 December 2008 (UTC)
The external links section has been filling up with link spam again. I removed most of it. Please be on constant lookout for link spammers adding their sites to the external links section. Thank you. --JHP (talk) 00:14, 1 July 2009 (UTC)
Per WP:MOSHYPHEN, I think the article should be moved to real-estate bubble. Han-Kwang (t) 19:29, 11 October 2009 (UTC)
Wouldn't it be nice to enrich this article with references to older bubbles, like the one before the Long Depression, the one of the 1920s in Florida, and also probably some example from the Middle Ages? —Preceding unsigned comment added by 82.245.117.235 (talk) 00:02, 4 November 2010 (UTC)
For example, Rio de Janeiro property prices rose almost 100% from jan/2008 to jan/2011, São Paulo prices rose 79,2%, while the official inflation index (IPCA) was just 17% over the period.
Source: http://www.zap.com.br/imoveis/fipe-zap/ (portuguese)
That's because there is much more demand to live in Sao Paulo and Rio De Janeiro. However, if this rise in property prices would be the case for the whole country (and on the condition that it is much higher than the general inflation), then this would mean a real estate bubble. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 178.117.252.112 (talk) 05:01, 29 October 2013 (UTC)
The list of countries in 2007 has some unusual places: Antarctica, North Korea, Vatican City to name a few. I removed some of them once but they reappeared. Raquel Baranow (talk) 01:29, 8 November 2013 (UTC)
They have reappeared and Australia (with one the highest property prices in the world) is missing. dkast (talk) 08:09, 17 September 2014 (UTC)
I am deleting the claim that real estate bubbles were not important in main stream economics. It is absolutely, less attention was given to the topic 20 years ago, but modern business cycle theory is about 30 years old. There are several prominent papers written in the past 15 years that stress the importance of real estate on business cycles. One example is Leamer's paper "Housing is the business cycle" which has several hundred citations. Thats a lot in the academic world. Iocavelleo was studying the effect of monetary policy on housing prices in early 2000. Most influential paper on the effect of asset prices such as land on business cycle fluctuation was published in 1997 (Kiyotaki and Moore Credit cycles). Since it is a false claim I see no reason to include. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Nanashiwanderer (talk • contribs) 11:24, 18 December 2013 (UTC)
Dr. Shi has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
1. There is a big literature on real-time bubble detection is missing. Please see reference below.
(1) Phillips, Peter CB, Yangru Wu, and Jun Yu. "Explosive behavior in the 1990s Nasdaq: When did exuberance escalate asset values?." International economic review 52.1 (2011): 201-226.
(2) Phillips, Peter CB, and Jun Yu. "Dating the timeline of financial bubbles during the subprime crisis." Quantitative Economics 2.3 (2011): 455-491.
(3) Phillips, Peter CB, Shuping Shi, and Jun Yu. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory Of Real‐Time Detectors." International Economic Review 56.4 (2015a): 1079-1134.
(4) Phillips, Peter CB, Shuping Shi, and Jun Yu. "Testing for multiple bubbles: Historical episodes of exuberance and collapse in the S&P 500." International Economic Review 56.4 (2015b): 1043-1078.
(5) Homm, Ulrich, and Jörg Breitung. "Testing for speculative bubbles in stock markets: a comparison of alternative methods." Journal of Financial Econometrics 10.1 (2012): 198-231.
(6) "Warning signs of future asset bubbles", The Strait Times, April 2011, By Peter C.B. Phillips and Jun Yu, http://korora.econ.yale.edu/phillips/news/warning-signs_110426.pdf
(7) "Hot property market … irrational or not?", Sunday Star Times, April 2015, By Peter Phillips and Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy, http://korora.econ.yale.edu/phillips/pubs/op-ed/hot-property_150412.pdf
2. The real time strategy proposed by Phillips, Shi and Yu (2015a,b) has been used to provide "exuberance indicator" for 23 national housing markets by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Reference: (1) Pavlidis, Efthymios, et al. "Episodes of exuberance in housing markets: in search of the smoking gun." The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics (2013): 1-31.
(2) http://www.dallasfed.org/institute/houseprice/
3. Instead of decomposing the house prices into a valuation component and a leverage component, the aforementioned methods focus on identifying the unique dynamic characteristics of speculative bubbles reflected in housing prices.
We hope Wikipedians on this talk page can take advantage of these comments and improve the quality of the article accordingly.
We believe Dr. Shi has expertise on the topic of this article, since he has published relevant scholarly research:
ExpertIdeasBot (talk) 16:05, 12 July 2016 (UTC)