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| Discovery | |
|---|---|
| Discovered by | LINEAR |
| Discovery date | 7 November 2004 |
| Designations | |
| Orbital characteristics[1] | |
| Epoch 2022-Jan-21 (JD 2459600.5) | |
| Uncertainty parameter 0 | |
| Observation arc | 17.8 years |
| Aphelion | 2.3958 AU (358.41 million km) |
| Perihelion | 0.62008 AU (92.763 million km) |
| 1.5079 AU (225.58 million km) | |
| Eccentricity | 0.58878 |
| 1.85 yr (676.34 d) | |
| 133.93° | |
| 0° 31m 56.428s / day | |
| Inclination | 4.2239° |
| 224° | |
| 90.97° | |
| Earth MOID | 0.0015 AU (220,000 km) |
| Physical characteristics | |
Mean diameter | 320m[2] 580m (assumed)[3] 0.5–1.0 km (CNEOS) |
| Mass | (0.13–1.8)×1012 kg |
| 1.99 h (0.083 d) | |
| E[2] | |
| 18.8 | |
(144898) 2004 VD17 (provisional designation 2004 VD17) is a sub-kilometer asteroid, classified as near-Earth object of the Apollo group once thought to have a low probability of impacting Earth on 4 May 2102.[3] It reached a Torino Scale rating of 2 and a Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale rating of -0.25.[3] With an observation arc of 17 years it is known that closest Earth approach will occur two days earlier on 2 May 2102 at a distance of about 5.5 million km.[1]
| Date | JPL SBDB nominal geocentric distance |
uncertainty region (3-sigma) |
|---|---|---|
| 2032-05-01 | 3140133 km | ± 127 km[4] |
| 2102-05-02 | 5568961 km | ± 50 thousand km |
| 2196-05-05 | 996859 km | ± 354 thousand km |
2004 VD17 was discovered on 7 November 2004, by the NASA-funded LINEAR asteroid survey. The object is estimated by NASA's Near Earth Object Program Office to be 580 meters in diameter with an approximate mass of 2.6×1011 kg.[5]
Being approximately 580 meters in diameter, if 2004 VD17 were to impact land, it would create an impact crater about 10 kilometres wide and generate an earthquake of magnitude 7.4.[6]
From February to May 2006, 2004 VD17 was listed with a Torino Scale impact risk value of 2, only the second asteroid in risk-monitoring history to be rated above value 1.[7] With an observation arc of 1511 days, it was estimated to have a 1 in 1320 chance of impacting on 4 May 2102.[3] The Torino rating was lowered to 1 after additional observations on 20 May 2006, and finally dropped to 0 on 17 October 2006.
As of 4 January 2008, the Sentry Risk Table assigned 2004 VD17 a Torino value of 0 and an impact probability of 1 in 58.8 million for 4 May 2102.[5] This value was far below the background impact rate of objects this size. Further observations allowed it to be removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 14 February 2008.[8]
It will pass 0.021 AU (3,100,000 km; 2,000,000 mi) from the Earth on 1 May 2032, allowing a refinement to the orbit.[1]
It has a spectral type of E.[2] This suggests that the asteroid has a high albedo and is on the smaller size range for an object with an absolute magnitude of 18.8.
