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County results Merkley: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Wehby: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Oregon |
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The 2014 United States Senate election in Oregon took place on November 4, 2014 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Oregon, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Oregon, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley successfully ran for reelection to a second term. Despite it being a national midterm Republican wave, this was actually his best Senate election in terms of margin of victory, winning by almost 20%.[1] Primary elections were held on May 20, 2014. Merkley easily won the Democratic nomination, while the Republicans nominated pediatric neurosurgeon Monica Wehby. Initially, the race was considered potentially competitive, but Wehby's campaign collapsed after she faced multiple allegations of stalking and harassment from former partners, and was found to have plagiarized portions of her campaign website.[2]
Democrat Jeff Merkley, the Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives, had narrowly defeated two-term Republican incumbent Gordon H. Smith with 49% of the vote in 2008.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Jeff Merkley (incumbent) | 277,120 | 92.04% | |
Democratic | William Bryk | 11,330 | 3.76% | |
Democratic | Pavel Goberman | 8,436 | 2.81% | |
write-ins | 4,194 | 1.39% | ||
Total votes | 301,080 | 100.00% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Callahan |
Jason Conger |
Tim Crawley |
Jo Rae Perkins |
Monica Wehby |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benenson Strategy Group | April 14–17, 2014 | 410 | ± ? | — | 24% | — | — | 22% | 55% |
Wenzel Strategies | May 1–4, 2014 | 607 | ± ? | 4% | 22% | 3% | 3% | 43% | 26% |
Public Opinion Strategies | May 12–13, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.38% | 2% | 24% | 2% | 2% | 41% | 26% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Monica Wehby | 134,627 | 49.96% | |
Republican | Jason Conger | 101,401 | 37.63% | |
Republican | Mark Callahan | 18,220 | 6.76% | |
Republican | Jo Rae Perkins | 7,602 | 2.82% | |
Republican | Tim Crawley | 6,566 | 2.44% | |
Write-in | 1,027 | 0.39% | ||
Total votes | 266,438 | 100.00% |
The filing deadline for independent candidates is August 26, 2014. In order to qualify, a candidate must submit 17,893 signatures of registered voters or obtain signatures from at least 1,000 electors at a valid assembly of electors.[21]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[23] | Likely D | November 3, 2014 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[24] | Likely D | November 3, 2014 |
Rothenberg Political Report[25] | Likely D | November 3, 2014 |
Real Clear Politics[26] | Likely D | November 3, 2014 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Merkley (D) |
Monica Wehby (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling | April 1–2, 2014 | 670 | ± 3.91% | 46% | 34% | — | 20% |
Benenson Strategy Group | April 14–17, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 52% | 32% | — | 16% |
Rasmussen Reports | May 21–22, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 47% | 37% | 5% | 11% |
Public Policy Polling | May 22–27, 2014 | 956 | ± 3.2% | 50% | 36% | — | 15% |
The Tarrance Group* | June 1–3, 2014 | 615 | ± 4.1% | 41% | 39% | 9%[27] | 11% |
SurveyUSA | June 5–9, 2014 | 560 | ± 4.2% | 50% | 32% | 9% | 9% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | July 5–24, 2014 | 2,088 | ± 2.6% | 53% | 39% | 1% | 7% |
SurveyUSA | August 1–5, 2014 | 564 | ± 4.2% | 52% | 33% | 7% | 9% |
Moore Information^ | August 5–9, 2014 | 500 | ± 4% | 47% | 38% | — | 16% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | August 18 – September 2, 2014 | 1,541 | ± 4% | 51% | 39% | 1% | 9% |
Rasmussen Reports | September 2–3, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 48% | 35% | 5% | 12% |
Polling Company/WomanTrend | September 9–11, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 42% | 34% | 7%[28] | 14% |
SurveyUSA | September 22–24, 2014 | 568 | ± 4.2% | 52% | 32% | 8% | 8% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 1,508 | ± 3% | 52% | 39% | 1% | 8% |
DHM Research | October 2014 | ? | ± 4.3% | 47% | 26% | 6% | 19% |
SurveyUSA | October 16–19, 2014 | 561 | ± 4.2% | 53% | 32% | 7% | 8% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | October 16–23, 2014 | 1,421 | ± 4% | 51% | 39% | 1% | 9% |
SurveyUSA | October 23–27, 2014 | 552 | ± 4.3% | 53% | 32% | 8% | 6% |
Elway Research | October 26–27, 2014 | 403 | ± 5% | 49% | 30% | 3%[29] | 18% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Merkley (D) |
Allen Alley (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | June 21–24, 2012 | 686 | ± 3.7% | 43% | 37% | — | 20% |
Public Policy Polling | December 3–5, 2012 | 614 | ± 4% | 53% | 36% | — | 12% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Merkley (D) |
Jason Atkinson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | June 21–24, 2012 | 686 | ± 3.7% | 43% | 34% | — | 23% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Merkley (D) |
Jason Conger (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling | April 1–2, 2014 | 670 | ± 3.91% | 47% | 40% | — | 12% |
Benenson Strategy Group | April 14–17, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 50% | 34% | — | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Merkley (D) |
Bruce Hanna (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | June 21–24, 2012 | 686 | ± 3.7% | 43% | 35% | — | 23% |
Public Policy Polling | December 3–5, 2012 | 614 | ± 4% | 52% | 34% | — | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Merkley (D) |
Gordon Smith (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | December 3–5, 2012 | 614 | ± 4% | 47% | 43% | — | 10% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Merkley (D) |
Bruce Starr (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | December 3–5, 2012 | 614 | ± 4% | 52% | 32% | — | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Merkley (D) |
Greg Walden (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | June 21–24, 2012 | 686 | ± 3.7% | 40% | 42% | — | 18% |
Public Policy Polling | December 3–5, 2012 | 614 | ± 4% | 47% | 42% | — | 11% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Jeff Merkley (incumbent) | 814,537 | 55.73% | +6.83% | |
Republican | Monica Wehby | 538,847 | 36.87% | -8.68% | |
Libertarian | Mike Monchalin | 44,916 | 3.07% | N/A | |
Pacific Green | Christina Jean Lugo | 32,434 | 2.22% | N/A | |
Constitution | James E. Leuenberger | 24,212 | 1.66% | -3.58% | |
n/a | Write-ins | 6,672 | 0.45% | N/A | |
Total votes | 1,461,618 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic hold |