The 2016 United States presidential election debates are a series of debates being held for the 2016 U.S. presidential general election. The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD), a bipartisan organization formed in 1987, organizes debates among the major presidential candidates. The first presidential debate for the 2016 election took place on September 26, 2016 and set the record as the most-watched debate in American history, with 84 million viewers. The only vice-presidential debate was held October 4. The second debate took place on October 9, 2016, and the final is planned for October 19. All CPD debates are to take place between 9 p.m. and 10:30 p.m. EDT (6 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. PDT).
The CPD set three criteria for eligibility: constitutional eligibility to become president; appearance on enough ballots to potentially reach 270 electoral votes; and a polling average at least 15% in five selected national polls. Four candidates achieved the first two criteria: Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, Republican nominee Donald Trump, Green nominee Jill Stein and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson. Only Clinton and Trump also satisfy the third criterion of averaging at least 15% in five selected national polls, and thus were the only two to appear in the two debates that have already occurred.
The CPD debates take place at venues at university campuses around the United States. Moderators for the CPD debates were announced on September 2, 2016. Lester Holt moderated the first debate, while Martha Raddatz and Anderson Cooper co-moderated the second debate. Chris Wallace is scheduled to moderate the third. Elaine Quijano moderated the vice-presidential debate.
Debate organizers
Commission on Presidential Debates
The CPD stipulates three criteria for eligibility for the presidential debates: constitutional eligibility to serve as president, appearance on enough ballots to potentially reach 270 electoral votes, and an average at least 15% on five selected national polls.[1] For the vice-presidential debate, the running mates of the presidential candidates qualifying for the first presidential debate will be invited.[1] As of mid-September Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson, and Jill Stein are on enough ballots to reach 270 electoral votes; however, only Clinton and Trump have reached the 15% polling threshold.[2] As of August 2016,[update] Johnson and Stein have polled as high as 13% and 7%, respectively, and have an average of 8.3% and 3%, respectively.[3]
On September 16, the commission announced the official invitation of both Clinton and Trump to participate in the first debate to be held on September 26 at Hofstra University, but Johnson and Stein did not meet the established criteria, and would not be participants in the debate.[6][7] The commission also confirmed that Clinton and Trump had committed to participate. It was also announced that Mike Pence and Tim Kaine would be participating in the only scheduled vice presidential debate, to take place at Longwood University on October 4.[6][7] The 15% threshold will be reapplied with polling numbers following the first debate in order to judge the participants in the second debate to take place on October 9.[7]
Moderators for the four debates were announced September 2, 2016.[8]
The first debate focused on national security, "achieving prosperity", and "America's direction". It was divided into six 15-minute segments on various topics.[9][10]
Free & Equal Elections Foundation
The Free & Equal Elections Foundation will host a single presidential debate in 2016. It is to be held at the University of Colorado Boulder's Macky Auditorium on October 25, 2016.[11] Originally, all presidential candidates with ballot access sufficient to represent a majority of electoral votes were invited to participate.[12] In October 2016 Free and Equal extended the invitation to all candidates with ballot lines representing at least ten percent of potential voters. This includes nominees of the Democratic, Republican, Libertarian, Green, Constitution, Reform, Socialism and Liberation, and Socialist Workers parties, as well as independent candidate Evan McMullin.[11][13] In previous debates held by Free and Equal, the Democratic and Republican nominees have not participated.
Polling
The following polls were conducted prior to each of the respective debates, and determined the candidates who participated in each debate.
Candidates in green participated in the debate, while those in red were excluded. Italics denotes the winner of the respective poll.
First presidential debate
The following polls were conducted prior to September 16, 2016, the polling deadline for both the first presidential debate and only vice presidential debate:
The first debate took place on Monday, September 26, at New York's Hofstra University, moderated by Lester Holt of NBC. It was originally scheduled to take place at Wright State University, but the venue was changed due to security and financial concerns.[27]
File:First Presidential Debate, 2016 (full video).webmFootage of the entire debate
Format
The first presidential debate was divided into six segments, each of approximately 15 minutes in length. The questions discussed during the 90 minutes were at the sole discretion of the moderator, and were not shared beforehand with the commission, nor with either campaign. There were six 15-minute segments, with the moderator introducing a topic and giving each candidate two minutes, followed by approximately 8 minutes and 45 seconds of facilitated discussion between the two candidates, with both candidates receiving approximately equal time. Each candidate spoke in front of a podium. Besides applause at the beginning and end of the debate, there was no audience participation allowed, but sporadic applause occurred at various points throughout the 90 minutes.[28]
The segments were on the economy and job creation, trade, the federal deficit, race relations and policing, the war on terror, the foreign policy of the United States, and each candidate's experience in the political and business realm.[29]
Reception
Writing on September 28, FiveThirtyEight found that every scientific poll so far suggests that voters thought Hillary Clinton performed better than Donald Trump in the debate.[30] A poll conducted by Public Policy Polling found that 51% thought Clinton won the debate, while 40% thought Trump won.[31] A YouGov poll found that 57% of Americans declared Clinton the winner, while 30% declared Trump the winner.[32] A Politico/Morning Consult poll showed that 49% of likely voters thought that Clinton won the debate, while 26% thought that Trump won, and 25% were undecided.[33] Echelon Insights polling showed that Clinton won the debate 48-22, and that the debate made 41% of respondents more likely to vote for Clinton while 29% were more likely to vote for Trump.[34] A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 56% of Americans thought Clinton did better, while 26% thought Trump did.[35] An NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll shows that 52% of likely voters who followed the debate chose Clinton was the winner, 21% chose Trump, and 26% did not choose either candidate.[36] A Gallup poll showed that there were more respondents thought Clinton did a better job than those who thought Trump did, by a margin of 61% to 27%.[37] A Fox News poll shows that 61% of respondents thought that Clinton won the debate while 21% said Trump did.[38] An ABC News/Washington Post poll shows that 53% of respondents thought that Clinton won the debate while 18% said Trump did.[39] A CBS News/New York Times poll shows that 32% of likely voters say that they thought better of Clinton after watching the debate, but only 10% of voters said that they thought better of Trump afterward.[40]
A panel of Los Angeles Times analysts consisting of Doyle McManus and two others found that Clinton won all six of the debate segments.[41] Among swing-state party officials and strategists surveyed by Politico, 79% agreed that Trump did not win the debate.[42]
Moderation
The performance of Lester Holt as moderator of the debate received mixed reactions, with political critics stating that Holt struggled to keep control of the debate, and although he challenged both candidates, Holt's repeated attempts to get the candidates to adhere to the time restrictions were ignored.[43]
Michael M. Grynbaum of The New York Times described Holt's performance by stating "He was silent for minutes at a time, allowing Hillary Clinton and Donald J. Trump to joust and bicker between themselves—and sometimes talk right over him—prompting some viewers to wonder if Mr. Holt had left the building." He continued, "Being less conspicuous often means attracting less criticism, and Mr. Holt's conservative approach seemed designed to avoid the opprobrium that befell his NBC colleague, Matt Lauer, whose performance at a forum this month was widely panned after he repeatedly interrupted Mrs. Clinton and failed to challenge Mr. Trump."[44] Hadas Gold of Politico wrote "Lester Holt was on an island on Monday night. And for most of the first presidential debate, he stayed there, letting the battleships of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump shoot their missiles at one another. It made for some memorable exchanges between Trump and Clinton, matched in close-up on most networks. For some debate watchers, that’s what they want their moderators to do: say 'go' and let them run. But it also left some gaps where viewers probably expected sharp questions."[45]
Viewership
The debate set the record as the most-watched debate in American history, with 84 million viewers across the 13 channels that carried it live and were counted by Nielsen, surpassing the previous record of 80.6 million viewers set by the debate between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan in 1980. These numbers do not account for the millions of viewers who watched the debates online and the people who watched the debate at parties, bars, restaurants, and offices.[46] 2 million concurrent viewers watched it live on YouTube, 8 million (numbers do not break down into unique viewers) viewed it on Facebook and 1.4 million unique viewers watched it live on CBS's streaming service.[47] All debate-related video on YouTube exceeded 88 million views on October 3, 2016.[47] CNN Digital reported 2.4 million live streams,[48] and Yahoo News reported 5 million views, both live and on-demand.[49]
The debate consisted of nine segments, each 10 minutes in length. Both candidates were given two minutes to respond to questions, with the remaining time used for a deeper discussion of the topic. The candidates were seated at a table with Quijano.
Reception
A CNN instant-poll found that 48% of voters believed Pence had won while 42% thought Kaine won.[53]
Two hours before the debate took place, the website of the Republican National Committee declared Pence the clear winner, writing "During the debate we helped fact check and monitor the conversation in real time @GOP." The post went on to say that his strong points concerned the economy and Clinton's alleged "scandals". The post was removed prior to the start of the debate, but not before getting widespread press and social media attention.[54][55][56]
Moderation
Elaine Quijano moderated and thereby became the first Asian American to moderate a U.S. debate for national elected office in the general election,[57] and the youngest journalist to moderate a debate since 1988.[58] It was also the first time a digital network anchor had been selected to moderate a national debate.[59]
Viewership
According to Nielsen, the four broadcast networks and the three largest cable news channels averaged around 36 million viewers.[60]
File:Second Presidential Debate, 2016 (full video).webmFootage of the entire debate
Format
The debate was conducted in a "town meeting" format on Sunday, October 9, with an audience of uncommitted voters selected by the Gallup Organization.[61] The CPD originally stipulated that half of the questions come from the audience, while the other half would come from the moderators "based on topics of broad public interest as reflected in social media and other sources."[61] The Commission subsequently invited members of the public to submit and vote on questions through the bipartisan Open Debate Coalition's website. Moderators chose from the 30 most popular questions.[62]
Candidates had two minutes to respond with an additional minute for the moderator to facilitate further discussion.[61]
A POLITICO/Morning Consult poll showed that 42% of respondents considered Clinton the winner of the debate, while 28% considered Trump the winner, and a slightly higher percentage (30%) were undecided.[64] An NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll showed that Clinton won the debate with 44% to Trump's 34%, while 21% said neither won.[65] A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that among those who said they watched at least portions of the debate, 53% said Clinton won while 32% said Trump won.[66] A Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute (CRI) poll of likely Ohio voters showed that 52% found that Clinton won the debate, 31% that Trump won, and 17% found that it was a tie.[67] According to a Qriously poll of likely voters in eight key battleground states, 44% gave the win to Clinton while 33% gave it to Trump.[68]
Trump's claim that he won the second debate with Hillary Clinton "in a landslide" in "every poll" was found to be false by Politifact, which noted that "not only did Trump not win by a landslide margin, he didn’t win any of the polls at all".[69]
Viewership
According to Nielsen, approximately 66.5 million people watched the second presidential debate on television across 11 networks.[70]
The third debate will take place on Wednesday, October 19, at Nevada's UNLV campus.[74]
Format
The format will mirror that of the first debate. As with the first presidential debate, the third debate will be divided into six segments, each of approximately 15 minutes in length. The questions to be discussed during the 90 minutes will be at the sole discretion of the moderator, and will not be shared beforehand with the commission, nor with either campaign. There will be six 15-minute segments, with the moderator introducing a topic and giving each candidate two minutes, followed by approximately 8 minutes and 45 seconds of facilitated discussion between the two candidates, with both candidates receiving approximately equal time. Each candidate will speak in front of a podium. Besides applause at the beginning and end of the debate, there will be no audience participation allowed.
^"NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey". HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES. NBC News/Wall Street Journal. August 4, 2016. Retrieved August 5, 2016 – via Scribd.
