The electoral map for the 2020 presidential election, based on calls made by a consensus of media outlets. Blue denotes states projected for Biden/Harris, and red denotes those projected for Trump/Pence. Numbers indicate allotted electoral votes.
The 2020 United States presidential election was the 59th quadrennial presidential election, held nominally on Tuesday, November 3, 2020. The Democratic ticket of former vice presidentJoe Biden and incumbent U.S. senator from California Kamala Harris defeated the Republican ticket of incumbent president Donald Trump and vice president Mike Pence.[7] Trump became the first U.S. president since 1992 and the eleventh incumbent in the country's history to fail to win re-election to a second term, and Biden won the largest share of the popular vote against an incumbent since 1932.[8][9][10] The election saw the highest voter turnout since 1900,[11] with each of the two main tickets receiving more than 74 million votes, surpassing Barack Obama's record of 69.5 million votes from 2008. Biden and Harris received more than 81 million votes,[12] the most votes ever cast for a candidate in a U.S. presidential election.[13] The votes in each state and D.C. were certified by December 9,[14] and the Electoral College will meet on December 14 for the presidential electors to formally cast their votes for the president and vice president. These votes will then be officially counted by Congress on January 6, 2021.[15]
The election saw a record number of ballots cast early and by mail due to the ongoing pandemic.[17] As a result of the large number of mail-in ballots, some swing states saw delays in vote counting and reporting; this led to major news outlets delaying their projection of Biden and Harris as the winners until November 7, four days after the election.[18] Major media networks project a state for a candidate once there is high mathematical confidence that the outstanding vote would be unlikely to prevent the projected winner from ultimately winning that state.[19] Before, during, and after Election Day, Trump and numerous Republicans attempted to subvert the election and overturn the results, falsely alleging that there had been widespread voter fraud, and trying to influence the vote counting process in swing states.[20][21][22] Officials in each of the 50 states stated that there was no evidence of systematic fraud or irregularities in their state.[23] Federal agencies overseeing election security said it was "the most secure in American history."[24][25][26] Attorney General William Barr concluded there was "no evidence of widespread fraud" in the election.[27] On multiple occasions, Trump falsely declared himself the winner.[28][29] The Trump campaign and its allies continued to engage in numerous attempts to overturn the results of the election by filing dozens of legal challenges in several states, most of which were dropped or dismissed by various courts,[30][31] spreading conspiracy theories falsely alleging fraud, pressuring Republican state electors and legislators, and initially refusing to cooperate with the presidential transition.[32]
Although major media outlets called the election for Biden on November 7, Emily W. Murphy, who as the head of the General Services Administration (GSA) is in charge of managing the presidential transition process for the outgoing administration, refused to officially acknowledge Biden as the president-elect, which meant that the official transition process could not start.[33] On November 23, the GSA officially acknowledged Biden and Harris as the apparent winners[d] and the Trump administration would begin the formal transition process. Trump then said he had instructed his administration to "do what needs to be done" but indicated he has not conceded and intended to continue his fight to overturn the election results.[35]
Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States. Each party develops a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The presidential nominee typically chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket, which is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention (with the exception of the Libertarian Party, which nominates its vice-presidential candidate by delegate vote regardless of the presidential nominee's preference). The general election in November is also an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[36] If no candidate receives the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, the United States House of Representatives will select the president from the three candidates who received the most electoral votes, and the United States Senate will select the vice president from the candidates who received the two highest totals. The presidential election occurred simultaneously alongside elections for the House of Representatives, Senate, and various state and local-level elections.
The Maine Legislature passed a bill in August 2019 adopting ranked-choice voting (RCV) both for presidential primaries and for the general election.[37][38] Governor Janet Mills allowed the bill to become law without her signature, which delayed it from taking effect until after the 2020 Democratic primary in March, but made Maine the first state to use RCV for a presidential general election. The Maine Republican Party filed signatures for a veto referendum and preclude the use of RCV for the 2020 election, but Secretary of StateMatthew Dunlap found there were insufficient valid signatures to qualify for the ballot. A challenge in Maine Superior Court was successful for the Maine Republican Party, but the Maine Supreme Judicial Court[39][40] stayed the ruling pending appeal on September8, 2020.[41] Nevertheless, ballots began being printed later that day without the veto referendum and including RCV for the presidential election,[42][43] and the Court ruled in favor of the Secretary of State on September22, allowing RCV to be used.[44] An emergency appeal to the Supreme Court was denied on October6.[45] Implementation of RCV could potentially delay the projection of the winner(s) of Maine's electoral votes for days after election day[46] and may complicate interpretation of the national popular vote.[47] The law continues the use of the congressional district method for the allocation of Maine's electors (Nebraska is the only other state that apportions its electoral votes this way).[48]
On December14, 2020, pledged electors for each candidate, known collectively as the United States Electoral College, will gather in their state's capital to cast their official votes. Pursuant to the processes laid out by the Electoral Count Act of 1887, certificates of ascertainment listing the names of the electors and separate certificates recording their votes are distributed to various officials across the branches of government.[49] The newly elected Congress will meet in joint session to formally open the certificates and count the votes on January6, 2021, with the sitting vice president (in his role as president of the Senate) presiding over the session.
The presidential election occurred simultaneously with elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives. Gubernatorial and legislative elections were also held in several states. For the subsequent election, the United States House will redistribute the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 United States Census, and the states will conduct a redistricting of Congressional and state legislative districts. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have redistricting commissions). Often, a party that wins a presidential election experiences a coattail effect that also helps other candidates of that party win elections.[50] Therefore, the party that wins the 2020 presidential election could also win a significant advantage in drawing new Congressional and state legislative districts that would stay in effect until the 2032 elections.[51]
In August 2018, the Democratic National Committee voted to disallow superdelegates from voting on the first ballot of the nominating process, beginning with the 2020 election. This required a candidate to win a majority of pledged delegates from the assorted primary elections in order to win the party's nomination. The last time this did not occur was the nomination of Adlai Stevenson II at the 1952 Democratic National Convention.[52] Meanwhile, six states used ranked-choice voting in the primaries: Alaska, Hawaii, Kansas, and Wyoming for all voters; and Iowa and Nevada for absentee voters.[53]
After Hillary Clinton's loss in the previous election, the Democratic Party was seen largely as leaderless,[54] and was also seen as fractured between the centrist Clinton wing and the more progressiveSanders wing of the party, echoing the rift brought up in the 2016 primary election.[55][56] In 2018, several U.S. House districts that Democrats hoped to gain from the Republican majority had contentious primary elections. Politico's Elena Schneider described these clashes as a "Democratic civil war".[57] During this period, there was a general shift to the left in regards to college tuition, healthcare, and immigration among Democrats in the Senate.[58][59]
Overall, the 2020 primary field had 29 major candidates,[60] breaking the record for the largest field under the modern presidential primary system previously set during the 2016 GOP primaries with 17 major candidates.[61]
Entering the Iowa caucuses on February 3, 2020, the field had decreased to 11 major candidates. Pete Buttigieg narrowly defeated Bernie Sanders in Iowa, then Sanders edged out Buttigieg in the February 11, New Hampshire primary. Following Michael Bennet, Deval Patrick, and Andrew Yang dropping out, Sanders won the Nevada caucuses on February 22. Joe Biden then won the South Carolina primary, causing Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and Tom Steyer to abandon their campaigns (Buttigieg and Klobuchar then immediately endorsed Biden). After Super Tuesday, March 3, Michael Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren quit the race, leaving three candidates left: Biden and Sanders, the main contenders, and Tulsi Gabbard, who remained in the race despite facing nigh-on insurmountable odds.[62] Gabbard then dropped out and endorsed Biden after the March 17, Arizona, Florida, and Illinois races.[63] On April 8, 2020, Sanders dropped out, reportedly after being convinced by former president Barack Obama, leaving Biden as the only major candidate remaining, and the presumptive nominee.[64][65] Biden then gained endorsements from Obama, Sanders and Warren.[66] By June 5, 2020, Biden had officially gained enough delegates to ensure his nomination at the convention,[67] and proceeded to work with Sanders to develop a joint policy task force.[68]
colspan="9" style="text-align:center; font-size:120%; color:white; background:Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/color;"|Candidates in this section are sorted by date of withdrawal
In election cycles with incumbent presidents running for re-election, the race for the party nomination is usually pro-forma, with token opposition instead of any serious challengers and with their party rules being fixed in their favor.[126][127] The 2020 election was not an exception; with Donald Trump formally seeking a second term,[128][129] the official Republican apparatus, both state and national, coordinated with his campaign to implement changes to make it difficult for any primary opponent to mount a serious challenge.[130][131] On January 25, 2019, the Republican National Committee unofficially endorsed Trump.[132]
Several Republican state committees scrapped their respective primaries or caucuses,[133] citing the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[134][135] After cancelling their races, some states immediately pledged their delegates to Trump,[136][137] while other states later held a convention or meeting to officially award their delegates to him.[138][139]
The Trump campaign also urged Republican state committees that used proportional methods to award delegates in 2016 (where a state's delegates are divided proportionally among the candidates based on the vote percentage) to switch to a "winner-takes-all" (where the winning candidate in a state gets all its delegates) or "winner-takes-most" (where the winning candidate only wins all of the state's delegates if he exceeds a predetermined amount, otherwise they are divided proportionally) for 2020.[127][140]
Nevertheless, reports arose beginning in August 2017 that members of the Republican Party were preparing a "shadow campaign" against the president, particularly from the party's moderate or establishment wings. Then-Arizona senator John McCain said, "Republicans see weakness in this president."[141][142]Maine senator Susan Collins, Kentucky senator Rand Paul, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie all expressed doubts in 2017 that Trump would be the 2020 nominee.[143][144] Senator Jeff Flake claimed in 2017 that Trump was "inviting" a primary challenger by the way he was governing.[145]
Former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld became Trump's first major challenger in the Republican primaries following an announcement on April 15, 2019.[146] Weld, who was the Libertarian Party's nominee for vice president in 2016, was considered a long shot because of Trump's popularity within his own party and Weld's positions on issues such as abortion, gun control and same-sex marriage that conflicted with conservative positions on those issues.[147] In addition, businessman Rocky De La Fuente also entered the race but was not widely recognized as a major candidate.[148][149]
Former Illinois representativeJoe Walsh launched a primary challenge on August 25, 2019, saying he would not vote for Trump if Trump became the nominee.[150] Walsh ended his presidential bid on February 7, 2020, after drawing around 1% support in the Iowa caucuses. Walsh declared that "nobody can beat Trump in a Republican primary" because the Republican Party was now "a cult" of Trump.[151] On September 8, 2019, former South Carolina Governor and representative Mark Sanford officially announced that he would be another Republican primary challenger to Trump.[152] He dropped out of the race 65 days later on November 12, 2019, after failing to gain support in Republican circles.[153]
Donald Trump's re-election campaign has essentially been ongoing since his victory in 2016, leading pundits to describe his tactic of holding rallies continuously throughout his presidency as a "never-ending campaign".[154] On January 20, 2017, at 5:11p.m.EST, he submitted a letter as a substitute of FEC Form 2, by which he reached the legal threshold for filing, in compliance with the Federal Election Campaign Act.[155] During the primary season, Trump ran an active campaign, even holding rallies in the February primary states, including South Carolina and Nevada where Republican primaries were canceled.[156][157] Trump won every race and, having won enough delegates to ensure his nomination at the convention, became the presumptive nominee on March 17, 2020.[158] Weld suspended his campaign the next day.[159]
The following major candidates have either: (a) held public office, (b) been included in a minimum of five independent national polls, or (c) received substantial media coverage.[160][161][162]
colspan="7" style="text-align:center; font-size:120%; color:white; background:Template:Republican Party (United States)/meta/color;" |Candidates in this section are sorted by popular vote
Jo Jorgensen, who was the running mate of author Harry Browne in 1996, received the Libertarian nomination at the national convention on May 23, 2020.[169] She achieved ballot access in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.[170]
Nominee
File:LPF-torch-logo (cropped).png2020 Libertarian Party ticket
The 2020 Democratic National Convention was originally scheduled for July 13–16 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin,[183][184][185] but was delayed to August 17–20 due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.[186] On June 24, 2020, it was announced that the convention would be held in a mixed online-in person format, with most delegates attending remotely but a few still attending the physical convention site.[187] On August 5, the in-person portion of the convention was scaled down even further, with major speeches including Biden's being switched to a virtual format.[188]
The 2020 Republican National Convention took place from August 24–27 in Charlotte, North Carolina and various remote locations. Originally, a three-day convention was planned to be held in North Carolina, but due to North Carolina's insistence that the convention follow COVID-19 social distancing rules, the speeches and celebrations were moved to Jacksonville, Florida (official convention business was still contractually obligated to be conducted in Charlotte).[189][190] However, due to the worsening situation with regards to COVID-19 in Florida, the plans there were cancelled, and the convention was moved back to Charlotte in a scaled-down capacity.[191]
The 2020 Libertarian National Convention was originally scheduled to be held in Austin, Texas, over Memorial Day weekend from May 22 to 25,[192][193] but all reservations at the JW Marriott Downtown Austin for the convention were cancelled on April 26 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.[194] It was eventually decided by the Libertarian National Committee that the party would hold two conventions, one online from May 22–24 to select the presidential and vice-presidential nominees and one at a physical convention in Orlando, Florida, from July 8–12 for other business.[195]
This is the second time a president has been impeached during his first term while running for a second term.[200][j] Trump continued to hold campaign rallies during the impeachment.[202][203] This is also the first time since the modern presidential primaries were established in 1911 that a president has been subjected to impeachment while the primary season was underway.[204] The impeachment process overlapped with the primary campaigns, forcing senators running for the Democratic nomination to remain in Washington for the trial in the days before and after the Iowa caucuses.[205][206]
Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic
States with at least one local, state, or federal primary election date or method of voting altered as of August 5, 2020.
Several events related to the 2020 presidential election were altered or postponed due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in the country and its effects such as the stay-at-home order and social distancing guidelines by local governments. On March 10, following primary elections in six states, Democratic candidates Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders cancelled planned campaign night events and further in-person campaigning and campaign rallies.[207][208] On March 12, Trump also stated his intent to postpone further campaign rallies.[209] The 11th Democratic debate was held on March 15 without an audience at the CNN studios in Washington, D.C.[210] Several states also postponed their primaries to a later date, including Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Ohio, and Maryland.[211] As of March 24, 2020, all major-party presidential candidates had halted in-person campaigning and campaign rallies over COVID-19 concerns. Political analysts speculated at the time that the moratorium on traditional campaigning coupled with the effects of the pandemic on the nation could have unpredictable effects on the voting populace and possibly, how the election will be conducted.[212][213][214]
Some presidential primary elections were severely disrupted by COVID-19-related issues, including long lines at polling places, greatly increased requests for absentee ballots, and technology issues.[215] The number of polling places was often greatly reduced due to a shortage of election workers able or willing to work during the pandemic. Most states expanded or encouraged voting by mail as an alternative, but many voters complained that they never received the absentee ballots they had requested.[216]
The March 2020 Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act included money for states to increase mail-in voting. By May, Trump and his campaign strongly opposed mail-in voting, claiming that it would cause widespread voter fraud, a belief which has been debunked by a number of media organizations.[217][218] Government response to the impact of the pandemic from the Trump administration, coupled to the differing positions taken by congressional Democrats and Republicans regarding economic stimulus became a major campaign issue for both parties.[219][220]
On April 6, the Supreme Court and Republicans in the State Legislature of Wisconsin rebuffed Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers's request to move the state's spring elections to June. As a result, the elections, which included a presidential primary, went ahead on April 7 as planned.[221] At least seven new cases of COVID-19 were traced to this election. Voting-rights advocates expressed fear of similar chaos on a nationwide scale in November, recommending states to move to expand vote-by-mail options.[222]
On June 20, 2020, Trump's campaign held an in-person rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, after the Oklahoma Supreme Court ruled that the event could go ahead despite continuing concerns over COVID-19.[223] Attendance at the rally was far lower than expected, being described as a "flop", with it leading to a significant worsening of relations between Trump and his campaign manager Brad Parscale.[224] 7.7 million people watched the event on Fox News, a Saturday audience record for that channel.[225] Three weeks after the rally, the Oklahoma State Department of Health recorded record numbers of cases of COVID-19,[226] and former Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain died of the virus, although it was not confirmed that he caught the disease due to his attendance at the rally.[227]
On October 2, 2020, Trump and First Lady Melania Trump tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 following a positive test from his senior adviser Hope Hicks, as part of larger COVID-19 outbreak among White House personnel. Both the president and first lady immediately entered quarantine, which prevented Trump from further campaigning, notably at campaign rallies.[228][229][230] Later that day, the President was admitted to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center with a low grade fever, where he was reported to have received an experimental antibody treatment.[231][232] Trump's diagnosis came only two days after he had shared the stage with Joe Biden at the first presidential debate. This led to the concern that Biden may have contracted the virus from Trump; however, Biden tested negative.[233][234] Trump was discharged from the hospital on October 5.[235]
Trump being diagnosed with COVID-19 was widely seen as having a negative effect on his campaign and shifted the attention of the public back onto COVID-19, an issue which is generally seen as a liability for Trump, due to his response to the COVID-19 pandemic suffering from low approval ratings.[236][237] Being in quarantine also meant that Trump was unable to attend rallies, which were a major part of his campaign. As a result of Trump contracting COVID-19, Biden continued campaigning but temporarily ceased running attack ads against him.[238][239] Trump resumed in-person rallies on October 12, one week after his discharge from the hospital.[235] Trump continued to travel to battleground states and hold mass rallies, sometimes two or three in a day. His rallies have been criticized for their lack of social distancing or mask wearing, and some polls suggest that voters see him less favorably for potentially endangering attendees.[240][241]
U.S. officials have accused Russia, China and Iran of trying to influence the 2020 United States elections.[242][243] On October 4, 2019, Microsoft announced that "Phosphorus", a group of hackers linked to the Iranian government, had attempted to compromise e-mail accounts belonging to journalists, U.S. government officials and the campaign of a U.S. presidential candidate.[244][245] The Voice of America reported in April 2020 that "Internet security researchers say there have already been signs that China-allied hackers have engaged in so-called 'spear-phishing' attacks on American political targets ahead of the 2020 vote." Chinese spokesman Geng Shuang denied the allegations and said he would "hope the people of the U.S. not drag China into its electoral politics".[246]
On February 13, 2020, American intelligence officials advised members of the House Intelligence Committee that Russia was interfering in the 2020 election in an effort to get Trump re-elected.[247][248] The briefing was delivered by Shelby Pierson, the intelligence community's top election security official and an aide to acting Director of National IntelligenceJoseph Maguire. On February 21, The Washington Post reported that, according to unnamed U.S. officials, Russia was interfering in the Democratic primary in an effort to support the nomination of Senator Bernie Sanders. Sanders issued a statement after the news report, saying in part, "I don't care, frankly, who Putin wants to be president. My message to Putin is clear: stay out of American elections, and as president, I will make sure that you do."[249] Sanders acknowledged that his campaign was briefed about Russia's alleged efforts about a month prior.[250] In a February 2020 briefing to the House Intelligence Committee, U.S. intelligence officials warned Congress that Russia was interfering in the 2020 campaign to support Trump's reelection campaign; Trump was angered that Congress had been informed of the threat, and the day after the briefing castigated the acting director of national intelligence, Joseph Maguire, for allowing the briefing to go forward.[251][252] China and some government-linked Chinese individuals have been accused of interfering in the election to support the candidacy of both Biden and Trump,[253] though whether it is actually doing so is disputed among the intelligence community.[252][254]
On October 21, threatening emails were sent to Democrats in at least four states. The emails warned that "You will vote for Trump on Election Day or we will come after you."[255]Director of National IntelligenceJohn Ratcliffe announced that evening that the emails, using a spoofed return address, had been sent by Iran. He added that both Iran and Russia are known to have obtained American voter registration data, possibly from publicly available information, and that "This data can be used by foreign actors to attempt to communicate false information to registered voters that they hope will cause confusion, sow chaos and undermine your confidence in American democracy." A spokesman for Iran denied the allegation.[256] In his announcement Ratcliffe said that Iran's intent had been "to intimidate voters, incite social unrest, and damage President Trump", raising questions as to how ordering Democrats to vote for Trump would be damaging to Trump. It was later reported that the reference to Trump had not been in Ratcliffe's prepared remarks as signed off by the other officials on the stage, but that he added it on his own.[257]
Throughout the election period, several Colombian lawmakers and the Colombian ambassador to the United States issued statements supporting the Donald Trump campaign, which has been viewed as potentially harmful to Colombia–United States relations.[258][259] On October 26, the U.S. Ambassador to Colombia, Philip Goldberg, requested that Colombian politicians abstain from getting involved in the elections.[260]
The Department of Justice is investigating whether the Trump Victory Committee took a $100,000 donation from Malaysian businessman and international fugitive Jho Low, who is accused of being the mastermind behind the multibillion-dollar 1Malaysia Development Berhad scandal involving a Malaysian sovereign wealth fund, 1MDB.[261][262]
It was quiet. There was no indication or evidence that there was any sort of hacking or compromise of election systems on, before, or after November third.[264]
Responding to spurious claims of foreign outsourcing of vote counting as a rationale behind litigation attempting to stop official vote counting in some areas, Krebs also affirmed that, "All votes in the United States of America are counted in the United States of America."[264]
During the campaign, Trump indicated in Twitter posts, interviews, and speeches that he might refuse to recognize the outcome of the election if he was defeated; Trump falsely suggested that the election would be rigged against him.[266][267][268] In July 2020, Trump declined to answer whether he would accept the results, telling Fox News anchor Chris Wallace that "I have to see. No, I'm not going to just say yes. I'm not going to say no."[269][270][271] Trump repeatedly claimed that "the only way" he could lose would be if the election was "rigged" and repeatedly refused to commit to a peaceful transition of power after the election.[272] Trump also attacked mail-in voting throughout the campaign, falsely claiming that the practice contains high rates of fraud;[273][274][275] at one point, Trump said, "We'll see what happens...Get rid of the ballots and you'll have a very peaceful — there won't be a transfer, frankly. There will be a continuation."[276] Trump's statements have been described as a threat "to upend the constitutional order".[277] In September 2020, FBI Director Christopher A. Wray, who was appointed by Trump, testified under oath that the FBI has "not seen, historically, any kind of coordinated national voter fraud effort in a major election, whether it's by mail or otherwise."[278]
A number of congressional Republicans insisted they were committed to an orderly and peaceful transition of power, but declined to criticize Trump for his comments.[279] On September 24, the Senate unanimously passed a resolution affirming the Senate's commitment to a peaceful transfer of power.[280] Trump has also stated he expected the Supreme Court to decide the election and that he wanted a conservative majority in case of an election dispute, reiterating his commitment to quickly install a ninth justice following the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg.[281]
Election delay suggestion
In April 2020, Biden suggested that Trump may try to delay the election, saying that Trump "is gonna try to kick back the election somehow, come up with some rationale why it can't be held".[282][283] On July 30, Trump tweeted that "With Universal Mail-In Voting (not Absentee Voting, which is good), 2020 will be the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT Election in history" and asked if it should be delayed until people can safely cast ballots in person. Experts have indicated that, for the election to be legally delayed, such a decision must be undertaken by Congress.[284][285] Several legal experts noted that the Constitution sets the end of the presidential and vice-presidential terms as January 20, a hard deadline which cannot be altered by Congress except by constitutional amendment.[286][287]
Chart of July 2020 opinion survey on likelihood of voting by mail in November election, compared to 2016[288]
Postal voting in the United States has become increasingly common, with 25% of voters mailing their ballots in 2016 and 2018. By June 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was predicted to cause a large increase in mail voting because of the possible danger of congregating at polling places.[289] An August 2020 state-by-state analysis concluded that 76% of Americans were eligible to vote by mail in 2020, a record number. The analysis predicted that 80 million ballots could be cast by mail in 2020—more than double the number in 2016.[290] The Postal Service sent a letter to multiple states in July 2020, warning that the service would not be able to meet the state's deadlines for requesting and casting last-minute absentee ballots.[291] In addition to the anticipated high volume of mailed ballots, the prediction was due in part to numerous measures taken by Louis DeJoy, the newly installed United States Postmaster General, including banning overtime and extra trips to deliver mail,[292] which caused delays in delivering mail,[293] and dismantling and removing hundreds of high-speed mail sorting machines from postal centers.[294] On August 18, after the House of Representatives had been recalled from its August break to vote on a bill reversing the changes, DeJoy announced that he would roll back all the changes until after the November election. He said he would reinstate overtime hours, roll back service reductions, and halt the removal of mail-sorting machines and collection boxes.[295]
The House of Representatives voted an emergency grant of $25 billion to the post office to facilitate the predicted flood of mail ballots.[296] However, Trump has repeatedly denounced mail voting, even though he himself votes by mail in Florida.[297] In August 2020, Trump conceded that the post office would need additional funds to handle the additional mail-in voting, but said he would block any additional funding for the post office to prevent any increase in balloting by mail.[298]
The Trump campaign filed lawsuits seeking to block the use of official ballot dropboxes in Pennsylvania in locations other than an election office, and also sought to "block election officials from counting mail-in ballots if a voter forgets to put their mail-in ballot in a secrecy sleeve within the ballot return-envelope."[299] The Trump campaign and the Republican Party both failed to produce any evidence of vote-by-mail fraud after being ordered by a federal judge to do so.[299]
On Election Day a judge ordered mail inspectors to search "mail facilities in .... key battleground states" for ballots.[300] The agency refused to comply with the order and nearly 7% of ballots in USPS facilities on Election Day were not processed in time.[301]
Federal Election Commission issues
The Federal Election Commission, which was created in 1974 to enforce campaign finance laws in federal elections, has not functioned since July 2020 due to vacancies in membership. In the absence of a quorum, the commission cannot vote on complaints or give guidance through advisory opinions.[302] As of May 19, 2020, there were 350 outstanding matters on the agency's enforcement docket and 227 items waiting for action.[303] As of September 1, 2020, Trump had not nominated anyone to fill the FEC vacancies positions.[304]
President Donald Trump with Amy Coney Barrett and her family, just prior to Barrett being announced as the nominee, September 26, 2020
On September 18, 2020, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburgdied. Senate Majority LeaderMitch McConnell immediately stated that the precedent he set regarding the Merrick Garland nomination was inoperative and that a replacement would be voted on as soon as possible, setting the stage for a confirmation battle and an unexpected intrusion into the campaign.[305] The death of Justice Ginsburg resulted in large increases in momentum for both the Democrats and Republicans.[306][307] The president,[308] vice president,[309] and several Republican members of Congress stated that a full Supreme Court bench was needed to decide the upcoming election.[310][311]
On September 26, the day after Justice Ginsburg's body lay in state at the Capitol, Trump held a Rose Garden ceremony at the White House to announce and introduce his candidate, Amy Coney Barrett.[312] After four days of confirmation hearings, the Senate Judiciary Committee voted the nomination out of committee on October 22,[313] and on October 26, Barrett was confirmed on a party-line vote of 52–48, with no Democrats voting for her confirmation.[314] This was the closest Supreme Court confirmation ever to a presidential election, and the first Supreme Court nomination since 1869 with no supporting votes from the minority party.[314] It was also one of the fastest timelines from nomination to confirmations in U.S. history.[315][316] According to The Washington Post a current issue for voters is the protection of the Supreme Court ruling of Roe v. Wade, on the legality of abortion.[317]
Pre-election litigation
By September 2020, several hundred legal cases relating to the 2020 election had been filed.[318] About 250 of these had to do with the mechanics of voting in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic.[318] The Supreme Court ruled on a number of these cases,[319] primarily issuing emergency stays instead of going through the normal process due to the urgency.[320] In October 2020, there was speculation that the election might be decided through a Supreme Court case, as happened following the 2000 election.[321][322]
One exchange that was particularly noted was when Trump did not directly denounce the white supremacist and neo-fascist group Proud Boys, which explicitly engages in political violence, instead responding that they should "stand back and stand by".[330][331][332] On the next day, Trump told reporters that the group should "stand down", while also claiming that he was not aware of what the group was.[333][334] The debate was described as "chaotic and nearly incoherent" because of Trump's repeated interruptions, causing the Commission on Presidential Debates to consider adjustments to the format of the remaining debates.[335]
The vice presidential debate was held on October 7, 2020, at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City.[336] The debate was widely held to be subdued, with no clear victor.[337][338] One incident that was particularly commented on was when a fly landed on vice-president Pence's head, and remained there unbeknownst to him for two minutes.[339][340]
The second debate was initially set to be held at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, Michigan, but the university withdrew in June 2020, over concerns regarding the COVID-19 pandemic.[341] The planned debate was rescheduled for October 15 at the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts in Miami, but due to Trump contracting COVID-19, the Commission on Presidential Debates announced on October 8 that the debate would be held virtually, in which the candidates would appear from separate locations. However, Trump refused to participate in a virtual debate, and the commission subsequently announced that the debate had been cancelled.[342][343]
The third scheduled debate took place on October 22 at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee and was moderated by Kristen Welker.[344][345] The changes to the debate rules resulted in it being generally considered more civil than the first debate.[346] Welker's performance as moderator was praised, with her being regarded as having done a good job preventing the candidates from interrupting each other.[347] Biden was generally held to have won the debate, though it was considered unlikely to alter the race to any considerable degree.[348][349][350]
Debates for the 2020 U.S. presidential election sponsored by the CPD
The following graph depicts the standing of each candidate in the poll aggregators from September 2019 to November 2020. Former Vice President Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, had an average polling lead of 7.9 percentage points over incumbent President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee. Biden would win the national popular vote by 4.4 percentage points.
Polling aggregates
Active candidates
Joe Biden (Democratic)
Donald Trump (Republican)
Others/Undecided
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.
Calculated averages are not comparable to those for the Biden vs. Trump polls. As polling with third parties has been very limited, the polls included in the average are often different.
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Jo Jorgensen vs. Howie Hawkins
The following graph depicts the difference between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in each swing state in the poll aggregators from March 2020 to the election, with the election results for comparison.
The COVID-19 pandemic was a major issue of the campaign, with Trump's responses being heavily criticized. The president spread mixed messages on the value of wearing face masks as protection, including criticizing Biden and reporters for wearing them, but has also encouraged their use at times.[357] During the campaign, Trump held many events across the country, including in coronavirus hotspots, where attendees did not wear masks and were not socially distancing; at the same time, he mocked those who wore face masks.[358][359][360]
Biden advocated for expansion of federal funding, including funding under the Defense Production Act for testing, personal protective equipment, and research.[361] Trump has also invoked the Defense Production Act to a lesser extent to control the distribution of masks and ventillators,[362] but his response plan relied significantly on a vaccine being released by the end of 2020.[361] At the second presidential debate, Trump claimed that Biden had called him xenophobic for restricting entry from foreign nationals who had visited China, but Biden clarified that he had not been referring to this decision.[363]
Economy
Trump claimed credit for the consistent economic expansion of his presidency's first three years, with the stock market at its longest growth period in history, and unemployment at a fifty-year low. Additionally, he has touted the 2020 third quarter rebound, in which GDP grew at an annualized rate of 33.1%, as evidence of the success of his economic policies.[364] Biden responded to Trump's claims by repeating that the strong economy under Trump's presidency was inherited from the Obama administration, and that Trump has aggravated the economic impact of the pandemic, including the need for 42 million Americans to file for unemployment.[365]
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which lowered income tax for most Americans, as well as lowering the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, were an important part of Trump's economic policy. Biden and the Democrats generally describe these cuts as unfairly benefiting the upper class. Biden plans to raise taxes on corporations and those making over $400,000 per year, while keeping the reduced taxes on lower income brackets, and raise capital gains taxes to a maximum bracket of 39.6%. In response, Trump said Biden's plans will destroy retirement accounts and the stock market.[366]
Environment
Trump and Biden's views on environmental policy differ significantly. Trump has stated at times that climate change is a hoax, although he has also called it a serious subject.[367] Trump has condemned the Paris Agreement on greenhouse gas reduction and began the withdrawal process. Biden plans to rejoin it and announced a $2 trillion climate action plan. However, Biden has not fully accepted the Green New Deal. Biden does not plan to ban fracking, but rather to outlaw new fracking on federal land. However, in a debate, Trump claimed that Biden wanted to ban it altogether. Trump's other environmental policies have included the removal of methane emission standards, and an expansion of mining.[368]
Health care
Health care was a divisive issue in both the Democratic primary campaign and the general campaign. While Biden, as well as other candidates, promised protection of the Affordable Care Act, progressives within the Democratic Party advocated to replace the private insurance industry with Medicare for All. Biden's plan involves adding a public option to the American healthcare system,[369] and the restoration of the individual mandate to buy health care which was removed from the Affordable Care Act by the 2017 tax cut bill,[370] as well as restoring funding for Planned Parenthood. Trump announced plans to repeal the Affordable Care Act, calling it "too expensive", but has not said what would replace it.[371] At the time of the election, the Trump administration and Republican officials from 18 states had a lawsuit before the Supreme Court, asking the court to repeal the Affordable Care Act.[372]
As a result of the killing of George Floyd and other incidents of police brutality against African Americans, combined with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, a series of protests and a wider period of racial unrest erupted in mid-2020.[373] Many peaceful protests took place, but riots and looting have also occurred. Trump and the Republicans have suggested sending in the military to counter the protests, which was criticized, especially by Democrats, as heavy-handed and potentially illegal.[374] Particularly controversial was a photo-op Trump took in front of St. John's Church in Washington D.C., before which military police had forcefully cleared peaceful protestors from the area.[370] Biden condemned Trump for his actions against protestors; he described George Floyd's words "I can't breathe" as a "wake-up call for our nation". He also promised he would create a police oversight commission in his first 100 days as president, and establish a uniform use of force standard, as well as other police reform measures.[375]
State predictions
Most election predictors use:
tossup: no advantage
tilt: advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
lean: slight advantage
likely: significant, but surmountable, advantage (highest rating given by CBS News and NPR)
Biden carried 25 states plus the District of Columbia and one congressional district in Nebraska, totaling 306 electoral votes. Trump carried 25 states plus one congressional district in Maine, totaling 232 electoral votes. That result is the exact opposite of Trump's 306-to-232 win in 2016.[390] Almost all counties previously considered reliable indicators of eventual success in presidential elections voted for Trump instead of Biden, meaning that they did not continue their streaks as bellwether counties. This was attributed to increasing political polarization throughout the country.[391]
More than 158 million votes were cast in the election.[392] More than 100 million of them were cast before Election Day by early voting or mail ballot, due to the ongoing pandemic.[393] Trump became the first U.S. president since 1992 and the eleventh incumbent in the country's history to fail to win re-election to a second term, and Biden won the largest share of the popular vote against an incumbent since 1932.[8][9][10] The election saw the highest voter turnout as a percentage of eligible voters since 1900.[394] Each ticket received more than 74 million votes, surpassing Barack Obama's record of 69.5 million votes from 2008.[11] The Biden–Harris ticket received more than 81 million votes, the most votes ever in a U.S. presidential election.[12][13]
Election night, November 3, ended without a clear winner, as many state results were too close to call and millions of votes remained uncounted, including in the battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.[395] Results were delayed in these states due to local rules on counting mail-in ballots. In a victory declared after midnight, Trump won the swing state of Florida by three percentage points, an increase from his 1.2 percentage point margin in 2016, having seen significant gains in support among the Latino community in Miami-Dade County.[396]
Shortly after 12:30a.m.EST, Biden made a short speech in which he urged his supporters to be patient while the votes are counted, and said he believed he was "on track to win this election".[397][398] Shortly before 2:30a.m.EST, Trump made a speech to a roomful of supporters, falsely asserting that he had won the election and calling for a stop to all vote counting, saying that continued counting was "a fraud on the American people" and that "we will be going to the U.S. Supreme Court."[399][400][401] The Biden campaign denounced these attempts, claiming that the Trump campaign was engaging in a "naked effort to take away the democratic rights of American citizens".[402]
Subsequent events
In Pennsylvania, where the counting of mail-in ballots began on election night, Trump declared victory on November 4 with a lead of 675,000 votes, despite more than a million ballots remaining uncounted. Trump also declared victory in North Carolina and Georgia, despite many ballots being uncounted.[403] At 11:20p.m.EST on election night, Fox News projected Biden would win Arizona, with the Associated Press making the same call at 2:50a.m.EST on November 4;[404][405] however, several other media outlets concluded the state was too close to call.[406][407] By the evening of November 4, the Associated Press reported that Biden had secured 264 electoral votes by winning Michigan and Wisconsin, with Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Nevada remaining uncalled.[408] Biden had a 1% lead in Nevada[409] and maintained a 2.3% lead in Arizona by November 5,[410] needing only to win Nevada and Arizona or win Pennsylvania to obtain the necessary 270 electoral votes.[408]
Some Trump supporters expressed concerns of possible fraud after seeing the president leading in some states on Election Night, only to see Biden take the lead in subsequent days. Election experts attributed this to several factors, including a "red mirage" of early results being counted in relatively thinly-populated rural areas that favored Trump, which are quicker to count, followed later by results from more heavily populated urban areas that favored Biden, which take longer to count. In some states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Republican-controlled legislatures prohibited mail-in ballots from being counted before Election Day, and once those ballots were counted they generally favored Biden, at least in part because Trump had for months raised concerns about mail-in ballots, causing those ballots to favor Biden even more. By contrast, in states such as Florida, which allowed counting of mail-in ballots for weeks prior to Election Day, an early blue shift giving the appearance of a Biden lead was later overcome by in-person voting that favored Trump, resulting in the state being called for the president on Election Night.[411][412][413]
On November 5, a federal judge dismissed a lawsuit by the Trump campaign to stop vote-counting in Pennsylvania. The Trump campaign had alleged that its observers were not given access to observe the vote, but its lawyers admitted during the hearing that its observers were already present in the vote-counting room.[414] Also that day, a state judge dismissed another lawsuit by the Trump campaign that alleged that in Georgia, late-arriving ballots were counted. The judge ruled no evidence had been produced that the ballots were late.[415] Meanwhile, a state judge in Michigan dismissed the Trump campaign's lawsuit requesting a pause in vote-counting to allow access to observers, as the judge noted that vote-counting had already finished in Michigan.[416] That judge also noted the official complaint did not state "why", "when, where, or by whom" an election observer was allegedly blocked from observing ballot-counting in Michigan.[417]
On November 6, Biden assumed leads in Pennsylvania and Georgia as the states continued to count ballots, and absentee votes in those states heavily favored Biden.[418] Due to the slim margin between Biden and Trump in the state, Georgia Secretary of StateBrad Raffensperger announced on November 6 that a recount would be held in Georgia. At that point, Georgia had not seen "any widespread irregularities" in this election, according to the voting system manager of the state, Gabriel Sterling.[419]
Also on November 6, U.S. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito issued an order requiring officials in Pennsylvania to segregate late-arriving ballots, amid a dispute as to whether the state's Supreme Court validly ordered a 3-day extension of the deadline for mail-in ballots to arrive.[420] Several Republican attorneys general filed amicus briefs before the U.S. Supreme Court in subsequent days agreeing with the Pennsylvania GOP's view that only the state legislature could change the voting deadline.[421]
By November 7, several prominent Republicans had publicly denounced Trump's claims of electoral fraud, saying they were unsubstantiated, baseless or without evidence, damaging to the election process, undermining democracy and dangerous to political stability while others supported his demand of transparency.[422] According to CNN, people close to Donald Trump, such as his son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner and his wife Melania Trump, urged him to accept his defeat. While Donald Trump privately acknowledged the outcome of the presidential election, he nonetheless encouraged his legal team to continue pursuing legal challenges.[423] Trump expected to win the election in Arizona, but when Fox News awarded said state to Joe Biden Trump became furious and claimed that Joe Biden's victory in Arizona was the result of fraud.[424]
Trump and his allies suffered approximately 50 legal loses in four weeks after starting their ligitation.[425] In view of these legal defeats began to employ "a public pressure campaign on state and local Republican officials to manipulate the electoral system on his behalf."[424][426][427][428]
Election calls
Hexagonal cartogram of the number of electoral college votes, with flipped states hatched
Major news organizations project a state for a candidate when there is high mathematical confidence that the outstanding vote would be unlikely to prevent the projected winner from ultimately winning the state. Election projections are made by decision teams of political scientists and data scientists.[19]
People celebrate in the streets near the White House after the major networks projected Biden the winner of the election on November 7.
On November 6, election-calling organization Decision Desk HQ projected that Biden had won the election after forecasting that Biden had won Pennsylvania. According to Decision Desk HQ (which had not yet called Arizona), Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes gave Biden a total of 273 electoral votes, three over the threshold to make him president-elect. Decision Desk HQ's clients Vox and Business Insider also called the race at that time.[429][430][431]
On the morning of November 7 at approximately 11:30AM EST, roughly three and a half days after polls had closed, ABC News, NBC News, CBS News, the Associated Press, CNN and Fox News all called the election for Biden, based on projections of votes in Pennsylvania showing him leading outside of the recount threshold (0.5% in that state).[432][433][434][435][436][437] Biden and Harris gave victory speeches in Wilmington, Delaware that evening.[438]
OSCE election monitoring
On the invitation of the U.S. State Department, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe's (OSCE) Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), which has been monitoring U.S. elections since 2002 (as it does for major elections in all other OSCE member countries), sent 102 observers from 39 countries.[439][440][441] The task force consisted of long-term observers from the ODIHR office (led by former Polish diplomat Urszula Gacek) deployed to 28 states from September on and covering 15 states on election day, and a group of European lawmakers acting as short-term observers (led by German parliamentarian Michael Georg Link), reporting from Maryland, Virginia, California, Nevada, Michigan, Missouri, Wisconsin, and the District of Columbia.[439][441] Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it was scaled down to a "limited election observation mission" from the originally planned 100 long-term observers and 400 short-term observers.[439]
An interim report published by the OSCE shortly before the election noted that many ODIHR interlocutors "expressed grave concerns about the risk of legitimacy of the elections being questioned due to the incumbent President's repeated allegations of a fraudulent election process, and postal vote in particular".[439][442] On the day after the election, the task force published preliminary findings,[440] with part of the summary stating:
The 3 November general elections were competitive and well managed despite legal uncertainties and logistical challenges. In a highly polarized political environment, acrimonious campaign rhetoric fuelled tensions. Measures intended to secure the elections during the pandemic triggered protracted litigation driven by partisan interests. Uncertainty caused by late legal challenges and evidence-deficient claims about election fraud created confusion and concern among election officials and voters. Voter registration and identification rules in some states are unduly restrictive for certain groups of citizens. The media, although sharply polarized, provided comprehensive coverage of the campaign and made efforts to provide accurate information on the organization of elections.[443]
Link stated that "on the election day itself, we couldn't see any violations" at the polling places visited by the observers.[440] The task force also found "nothing untoward" while observing the handling of mail-in ballots at post offices, with Gacek being quoted as saying that "We feel that allegations of systemic wrongdoing in these elections have no solid ground" and that "The system has held up well".[441] The OSCE's election monitoring branch is due to publish a more comprehensive report in early 2021.[441]
Note: Two states (Maine and Nebraska) allow for their electoral votes to be split between candidates by congressional districts. The winner within each congressional district gets one electoral vote for the district. The winner of the statewide vote gets two additional electoral votes.[499][500]
Close states
States where the margin of victory was under 1% (37 electoral votes; all won by Biden):
Georgia, 0.24% – 16 electoral votes
Arizona, 0.31% – 11
Wisconsin, 0.63% – 10
States where the margin of victory was between 1% and 5% (86 electoral votes; 42 won by Biden, 44 by Trump):
Pennsylvania, 1.16% – 20 electoral votes
North Carolina, 1.35% – 15
Nevada, 2.39% – 6
Michigan, 2.78% – 16
Florida, 3.36% – 29
States/districts where the margin of victory was between 5% and 10% (80 electoral votes; 17 won by Biden, 63 by Trump):
Texas, 5.58% – 38 electoral votes
Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, 6.50% – 1
Minnesota, 7.11% – 10
New Hampshire, 7.35% – 4
Maine's 2nd congressional district, 7.44% – 1
Ohio, 8.03% – 18
Iowa, 8.20% – 6
Maine, 9.07% – 2
Blue denotes states (or congressional districts) won by Democrat Joe Biden; red denotes those won by Republican Donald Trump.
The Brookings Institution released a report entitled "Exit polls show both familiar and new voting blocs sealed Biden's win" on November 12, 2020. In it, author William H. Frey attributes Obama's 2008 win to young people, people of color, and the college educated. Frey contends Trump won in 2016 thanks to older whites without college degrees.[503] Frey says that the same coalitions largely held in 2008 and 2016, although in key battleground states Biden increased his vote among some of the 2016 Trump groups, particularly among whites and older Americans.[503] Trump won the white vote in 2016 by 20% but in 2020 by only 17%. The Democratic Party won black voters by 75%, the lowest margin since 2004. Democrats won the Latino vote by 33%, which was lower than the 2004 margin, and they won the Asian American vote by 27%, the lowest figure since 2008.[503] Biden increased the Democratic share of white men without college educations from 42% to 48% in 2016, and he made a slight improvement of 2% among white, college-educated women. People age 18 to 29 registered a rise in Democratic support between 2016 and 2020, with the Democratic margin of victory among that demographic increasing from 19% to 24%.[503]
Voting patterns by ethnicity
Latino voters
Voto Latino reported that the Latino vote was crucial to the Biden victory in Arizona. 40% of Latino voters who voted in 2020 did not vote in 2016, and 73% of Latino voters voted for Biden (438,000 voters).[504] Others note that the failure of Democrats to win in Florida and Texas was because of the Biden campaign's treatment of Latinos as a monolithic voting bloc. While Democrats won most Latino voters in both of these states, they failed to win over Cuban American voters in Miami-Dade County, Florida and fourth-and-fifth generation, English-speaking Tejanos in South Texas at the rates they had in the past.[505] Even in Nevada, which Biden won, he failed to do as well among Hispanics as Bernie Sanders had done in the February caucus, largely because Sanders asked for their vote, but Biden did not;[505] however, without Latino support, Biden would have failed to carry the state.[506]
Demographic patterns emerged having to do with country of origin and candidate preference. Pre- and post-election surveys showed Biden winning Latinos of Mexican, Puerto Rican, Dominican,[507] and Spanish heritage,[508] while Trump carried Latinos of Cuban heritage. Data from Florida showed Biden holding a narrow edge among South Americans.[509]
Black voters
Biden won 90% of the Black vote, and his total votes among Blacks even exceeded that of Barack Obama in 2008. This vote was crucial in the large cities of Pennyslvania and Michigan; the increase in the Democratic vote in Milwaukee County of about 28,000 votes was more than the 20,000-vote lead Biden had in the state of Wisconsin. Almost half of Biden's gains in Georgia came from the four largest counties—Fulton, DeKalb, Gwinnett, and Cobb—all in the Atlanta metro area with large Black populations.[510]
Asian American and Pacific Island voters
Polls showed that 68% of Asian American and Pacific Island voters (AAPI voters) supported Biden-Harris while 28% supported Trump-Pence. "From all of the data that we’ve seen, it’s safe to say Asian Americans supported Biden over Trump ... backing Democrats at a roughly 2:1 ratio," says Karthick Ramakrishnan, a political science professor at the University of California Riverside and founder of AAPI Data. However, this overall tendency overlooks differences among particular ethnic groups: Korean Americans, Japanese Americans, Indian Americans, and Chinese Americans favored Biden by higher margins overall compared to groups including Vietnamese Americans and Filipino Americans. Many voters were turned off by Trump's racist language ("China virus" and "kung flu"), but others appreciated his strong anti-China stance. Many Indian Americans self-identified with Kamala Harris, but others approved of Donald Trump's anti-Muslim rhetoric and support of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.[511]
American Indian and Alaska Native voters
Pre-election voter surveys by Indian Country Today found Native voters were overwhelmingly supporting Democratic nominee Joe Biden.[512] In particular, the Navajo Reservation, which spans a large quadrant of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, delivered sometimes 97% of their votes per precinct to Biden,[513] while overall support for Biden was between 60 and 90% on the Reservation.[514] Biden also posted large turnout among Havasupai, Hopi, and Tohono O'odham peoples,[515] delivering a large win in New Mexico and flipping Arizona.
Although polls generally predicted the Biden victory, the national polls were moderately imprecise by about 3–4 points, and some state polling was even further from the actual result. This also applied in several Senate races, where the Democrats also underperformed by around 5 points relative to the polls.[519] Most pollsters underestimated support for Trump in several states, including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Texas and Wisconsin; a notable exception was Ann Selzer, who accurately predicted Republican victories in Iowa for the presidential and Senate races. The discrepancy between poll predictions and the actual result persisted from the 2016 election despite pollsters' attempts to fix problems with polling in 2016, in which they underestimated the Republican vote in several states. The imprecise polls led to changes in campaigning and fundraising decisions for both Democrats and Republicans.[520]
According to The New York Times, polling misses have been attributed to, among other issues, reduced average response to polling; the relative difficulty to poll certain types of voters; and pandemic-related problems, such as a theory which suggests Democrats were less willing to vote in person on Election Day than Republicans for fear of contracting COVID-19.[520]New Statesman data journalist Ben Walker pointed to Hispanics as a historically difficult group to poll accurately, leading to pollsters underestimating the level of Trump support within the demographic group.[521]
Protests against Trump's challenges to the election results took place in Minneapolis, Portland, New York, and other cities. Police in Minneapolis arrested more than 600 demonstrators for blocking traffic on an interstate highway. In Portland, the National Guard was called out after some protesters smashed windows and threw objects at police.[522] At the same time, groups of Trump supporters gathered outside of election centers in Phoenix, Detroit, and Philadelphia, shouting objections to counts that showed Biden leading or gaining ground.[522] In Arizona, where Biden's lead was shrinking as more results were reported, the pro-Trump protesters mostly demanded that all remaining votes be counted, while in Michigan and Pennsylvania, where Trump's lead shrank and disappeared altogether as more results were reported, they called for the count to be stopped.[523]
Trump and a variety of his surrogates and supporters made a series of false claims that the election was fraudulent. Claims that substantial fraud was committed have been repeatedly debunked.[524][525] On November 9 and 10, The New York Times called the offices of top election officials in every state; all of the 45 state officials who responded stated that there was no evidence of fraud. Some described the election as remarkably successful considering the coronavirus pandemic, the record turnout, and the unprecedented number of mailed ballots.[23] On November 12, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency issued a statement calling the 2020 election "the most secure in American history" and noting "[t]here is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised".[25]
During the week following the election, Trump repeatedly claimed that he had won the election.[526][527]
As ballots were still being counted two days after Election Day, Trump asserted without evidence that there was "tremendous corruption and fraud going on," adding, "If you count the legal votes, I easily win. If you count the illegal votes, they can try to steal the election from us."[528] Trump has claimed repeatedly that the mail-in ballots being heavily pro-Biden is suspicious.[529] This is a common phenomenon known as the blue shift, since more Democrats than Republicans tend to vote by mail, and mail ballots are counted after Election Day in many states. Leading up to the 2020 election the effect was predicted to be even greater than usual, as Trump's attacks on mail voting might have deterred Republicans from casting mail ballots.[530]
Many claims of purported voter fraud were discovered to be false or misleading. In Fulton County, Georgia the number of votes affected was 342, with no breakdown of which candidates they were for.[531] A viral video of a Pennsylvania poll worker filling out a ballot was found to be a case of a damaged ballot being replicated to ensure proper counting, while a video claimed to show a man taking ballots illegally to a Detroit counting center was found to be actually depicting a photographer transporting his equipment.[532][533] Another video of a poll watcher being turned away in Philadelphia was found to be real, but the poll watcher had subsequently been allowed inside after a misunderstanding had been resolved.[534] A tweet that went viral claimed that 14,000 votes in Wayne County, Michigan — which encompasses Detroit — were cast by dead people, but the list of names included was found to be incorrect.[535] The Trump campaign and Tucker Carlson also claimed a James Blalock had voted in Georgia despite having died in 2006, though his 94-year-old widow had registered and voted as Mrs. James E. Blalock.[536] In Erie, Pennsylvania, a postal worker who claimed that the postmaster had instructed postal workers to backdate ballots mailed after Election Day later admitted he had fabricated the claim. Prior to his recantation, Republican senator Lindsey Graham cited the claim in a letter to the Justice Department calling for an investigation, and the worker was praised as a patriot on a GoFundMe page created in his name that raised $136,000.[537]
Days after Biden had been declared the winner, White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany asserted without evidence that the Democratic Party was welcoming fraud and illegal voting.[538] Republican former speaker of the House Newt Gingrich stated on Fox News, "I think that it is a corrupt, stolen election."[539] Appearing at a press conference outside a Philadelphia landscaping business as Biden was being declared the winner, Trump's personal attorney Rudy Giuliani asserted without evidence that hundreds of thousands of ballots were questionable.[540] Responding to Giuliani, a spokesperson for Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro said "Many of the claims against the commonwealth have already been dismissed, and repeating these false attacks is reckless. No active lawsuit even alleges, and no evidence presented so far has shown, widespread problems."[23]
One week after the election, Republican Philadelphia city commissioner Al Schmidt said he had not seen any evidence of widespread fraud, stating, "I have seen the most fantastical things on social media, making completely ridiculous allegations that have no basis in fact at all and see them spread." He added that his office had examined a list of dead people who purportedly voted in Philadelphia but "not a single one of them voted in Philadelphia after they died." Trump derided Schmidt, tweeting, "He refuses to look at a mountain of corruption & dishonesty. We win!"[541]
Attorneys who brought accusations of voting fraud or irregularities before judges were unable to produce actual evidence to support the allegations. In one instance, a Trump attorney sought to have ballot counting halted in Detroit on the basis of a claim by a Republican poll watcher that she had been told by an unidentified person that ballots were being backdated; Michigan Court of Appeals judge Cynthia Stephens dismissed the argument as "inadmissible hearsay within hearsay."[542][543] Some senior attorneys at law firms working on Trump's behalf, notably Jones Day, expressed concerns that they were helping to undermine the integrity of American elections by advancing arguments lacking evidence.[544]
In a press conference on November 19, held by Giuliani and several other members of Trump's legal team, it was claimed, without evidence, that the reason for Trump's loss was that the Canadian firm Dominion Voting Systems, which had supplied voting machines for 27 states, was a communist organisation controlled by billionaire George Soros, former Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez (who died in 2013) and the Chinese Communist Party, and that the machines had "stolen" hundreds of thousands of votes in the middle of the night. These claims were debunked by the Associated Press.[545][546]
After the election, the Trump campaign filed a number of lawsuits in multiple states, including Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.[547] Lawyers and other observers have noted the suits are unlikely to have an effect on the outcome. Loyola Law School professor Justin Levitt said "[t]here's literally nothing that I've seen yet with the meaningful potential to affect the final result".[548]
Some law firms have moved to drop their representation in lawsuits challenging results of the election.[549]
In Nevada—a state Trump lost by 2.4 percentage points—the president's campaign team filed a lawsuit asking a judge to either declare Trump the winner or to reject the state's election results.
In Pennsylvania—which Biden won by more than 82,000 votes—Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani was in court asking a judge to overturn the state's results. ("At bottom, you're asking this court to invalidate some 6.8million votes, thereby disenfranchising every single voter in the commonwealth," the judge said.)[550]
Trump's refusal to concede
Early in the morning on November 4, with vote counts still going on in many states, Trump claimed that he had won.[551] For weeks after the networks had called the election for Biden, Trump refused to acknowledge that Biden had won. Biden described Trump's refusal as "an embarrassment".[552] The General Services Administration (GSA) was blocking preparations for a transfer of power from proceeding.[553] The White House ordered government agencies not to cooperate with the Biden transition team in any way.[554] Starting in 1896 when William Jennings Bryan began the tradition of formal concession by sending a congratulatory telegram to President-elect William McKinley, every losing major party presidential candidate has formally conceded.[555]
Trump acknowledged Biden's victory in a tweet on November 15, although he refused to concede and blamed his loss on fraud. "He won because the Election was Rigged," Trump said before tweeting, "I concede NOTHING! We have a long way to go."[556][557]
GSA delays certifying Biden as president-elect
Although all major media outlets called the election for Biden on November 7, the head of the General Services Administration (GSA), Trump appointee Emily W. Murphy, refused for over two weeks to certify Biden as the president-elect. Without formal GSA certification or "ascertainment" of the winner of the election, the official transition process was delayed.[33] On November 23 Murphy acknowledged Biden as the winner and said the Trump administration would begin the formal transition process. Trump said he had instructed his administration to "do what needs to be done" but did not concede, and indicated he intended to continue his fight to overturn the election results.[35]
Suggestion to have state legislatures choose Electoral College voters
Prior to and following the election, Trump and others within the Republican Party have considered asking Republican state legislatures to select their states' electors as a way to secure a Trump reelection, in the event of a Biden victory.[558][559][560] In Pennsylvania, the president's personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani asked a federal judge to consider ordering the state legislature to select the electors.[561] Legal experts, including New York University law professor Richard Pildes, have said that such a strategy would run into numerous legal and political problems, noting that in various battleground states, Democratic Party members elected to statewide offices would thwart such efforts,[558] and ultimately Congress likely would not accept the votes of legislatively appointed electors over those appointed based on the election results.[562]Lawrence Lessig noted that while the Constitution grants state legislatures the power to determine how electors are selected, including the power to directly appoint them, Article II, Section 1, Clause 4 gives Congress the power to determine when electors must be appointed, which they have designated to be Election Day, meaning that legislatures cannot change how electors are appointed for an election after this date.[563] In modern times, most states have used a popular vote within their state as the determining factor in who gets all of the state's electors,[558] and changing election rules after an election has been conducted could also violate the Constitution's Due Process Clause.[564]
Attempts to delay or deny election results
On November 18, it was reported that Trump had decided to focus his efforts on a bid to delay final vote counts for long enough that Biden is unable to claim a clear victory. Trump maintained that he would win the election, tweeting "Important News Conference today by lawyers on a very clear and viable path to victory. Pieces are very nicely falling into place. RNC at 12:00 P.M." [565]
The two Republican members of Wayne County, Michigan's canvassing board voted against certifying its election results before reversing course and certifying them. Trump praised their initial action, writing on Twitter "Wow! Michigan just refused to certify the election results! Having courage is a beautiful thing. The USA stands proud!". After the initial refusal drew severe condemnation and the two Republican canvassers were widely publicly denounced, with one video of a local entrepreneur harshly accusing the GOP canvassers of racism going viral online, the board reversed course and certified the results for Biden.[566] One of the Republicans on the Board of County Canvassers had suggested certifying the vote for areas of Wayne County outside the City of Detroit. As the residents of Detroit are mostly black, while the areas of Wayne County outside Detroit are mostly white, experts raised questions of race-based motives for refusing the certification of the vote.[567] After signing off on certification of the Wayne County election result, the two Republican members of the Board were contacted by the Trump campaign. The following day, they both signed affidavits stating they wanted to rescind their vote to certify.[568] The attempts to prevent the Michigan electoral votes for being cast for Biden went even further, as Trump flew in the two top Republicans in the Michigan legislature, Senate Majority LeaderMike Shirkey and House SpeakerLee Chatfield, to the White House on November 20 amid the standoff.[569][570]
On November 25, one day after Pennsylvania certified its election results, a Republican state senator requested a hearing of the State Senate Majority Policy Committee to discuss election issues. The event, described as an "informational meeting," was held at a hotel in Gettysburg and featured Rudy Giuliani asserting that the election had been subject to massive fraud. Trump also spoke to the group by speakerphone, repeating his insistence that he had actually won in Pennsylvania and other swing states, and saying "We have to turn the election over."[571] Similar partisan hearings took place in Arizona on November 30 and Michigan on December 2.[572][573]
On December 2, Trump posted a 46 minute video to his social media. The taped speech, filmed in the White House, claimed the election was "rigged" and repeated numerous falsehoods and allegations of fraud that have been repeatedly rejected by multiple courts in several states. He repeatedly called for either the state legislatures or the courts to overturn the results of the election and allow him to stay in power.[574]
Trump continued to apply pressure to elected Republicans in an unprecedented attempt to overturn the democratic election result, in ways never attempted in US history. On December 5, 2020, hours before attending a rally in Georgia, Trump called Brian Kemp, the Republican governor of Georgia, and pressured him to recall the legislature to overturn the election result.[575]
On December 8, 2020, it was reported that Trump had called the Pennsylvania speaker of the house twice in the past week, asking him to ignore the popular vote of the state and select electors that would vote for Trump in the electoral college. This marked the third state Trump had directly intervened in to overturn a result he lost.[576]
On November 11, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger ordered a statewide hand recount of the vote in addition to the normal audit process. At the time, Biden held a lead of 14,112 votes, or 0.3% in the state.[583] The audit was concluded on November 19 and affirmed Biden's lead by 12,670 votes, citing a number of human errors, including memory cards that did not upload properly to the state servers, but no fraud in the original tally. Georgia law allows for a recount if there is a margin of 0.5%; the current margin is 0.2%.[584] After the state certified the results, Republican Governor Brian Kemp called for another hand audit, demanding to compare signatures on absentee ballot requests to actual ballots. Trump condemned both Kemp and Raffensperger, tweeting that signature comparisons would give victories to not only him but also Senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler.[585] Loeffler came in second place in the November 3 first round with 25.9% of the vote. On November 21, the Trump campaign requested a machine recount, which will cost taxpayers $200,000 but will not address concerns about absentee ballot signatures.[586]
On November 18, the Trump campaign wired $3 million to pay for partial recounts in Milwaukee County and Dane County, Wisconsin, where Milwaukee and Madison, the two largest cities in the state and Democratic strongholds, are located.[587] During the recount, Milwaukee County election commissioner Tim Posnanski stated that several Republican observers were breaking rules by posing as independents. The recount started November 20 and was required to be completed by December 1.[588] Completed by November 29, the recounts increased Biden's lead by 87 votes.[589]
^Most states allowed early voting in person or by mail, with the earliest state starting on September 4.[1] Most voters voted before November 3, most of them by mail.[2]
^Trump's official state of residence was New York in the 2016 election but has since changed to Florida, with his permanent residence switching from Trump Tower to Mar-a-Lago in 2019.[6]
^"[T]he GSA Administrator ascertains the apparent successful candidate once a winner is clear based on the process laid out in the Constitution."[34]
^ abcdefghijkCandidate did not appear on any ballots.
^Although claimed in Hawkins's campaign website, he did not obtain write-in access in Montana.[175]
^Candidates in bold were listed on ballots of states representing most of the electoral college. Other candidates were listed on ballots of more than one state and were listed on ballots or were write-in candidates in most states or in states representing most of the electoral college.
^In some states, some presidential candidates were listed with a different or no vice presidential candidate.
^In some states, some candidates were listed with a different or additional party, a label, or as independent or unaffiliated.
^Following the cancellation of the planned second debate on October 9, both candidates held separate but simultaneous televised town hall events on the intended date of October 15. Trump's was broadcast on NBC, moderated by Savannah Guthrie, while Biden's was on ABC, moderated by George Stephanopoulos.[353]
^ abCalculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^ abcdefghijklmnopqrMay have received write-in votes, which were not reported individually and are included in others.
^ abVotes for Jesse Ventura and Cynthia McKinney, who were nominated to the ballot by the Green Party of Alaska instead of the national candidates,[446] are included in others. Hawkins/Walker may have received write-in votes, which were not reported individually and are also included in others.
^The percentages reported by this state did not reflect write-in votes. Following the practice of the Federal Election Commission,[453] they are reflected in this table.
^ abcdefghijklmnopqrsWrite-in votes have not yet been reported and are not reflected in total votes or percentages.
^ abcdefThe percentages or total votes reported by this state included blank or overvotes. Following the practice of the Federal Election Commission,[453] only valid votes are reflected in this table.
^Others and total votes include votes for the ballot option "none of these candidates", which are counted as valid votes by the Federal Election Commission.[453]
^A few write-in votes for candidates also listed on the ballot were not included in their main count.
^2020 November General Election Turnout Rates, United States Election Project. This turnout figure is the estimated number of ballots counted (including ballots without a valid vote for president) divided by the estimated number of eligible voters (U.S. residents, excluding those ineligible to vote due to lack of U.S. citizenship or to a criminal conviction, and U.S. citizens residing in other countries, at or over age 18). This figure is preliminary and unofficial, and not comparable to figures for previous years calculated by the Federal Election Commission, which uses only valid votes for president divided by the U.S. population at or over age 18 (including those ineligible to vote, and not including U.S. citizens residing in other countries).
^Burns, Alexander; Flegenheimer, Matt; Lee, Jasmine C.; Lerer, Lisa; Martin, Jonathan (March 5, 2020). "Who's Running for President in 2020?". The New York Times. Retrieved March 8, 2020.
^Burns, Alexander; Flegenheimer, Matt; Lee, Jasmine C.; Lerer, Lisa; Martin, Jonathan (January 21, 2019). "Who's Running for President in 2020?". The New York Times. Archived from the original on February 19, 2019. Retrieved March 10, 2019.
^Tucker, Eric (February 24, 2020). "FBI official: Russia wants to see US 'tear ourselves apart'". AP News. Archived from the original on February 26, 2020. Retrieved February 26, 2020. One intelligence official said lawmakers were not told that Russia was working directly to aid Trump. But other people familiar with the meeting said they were told the Kremlin was looking to help Trump's candidacy. The people spoke on condition of anonymity to discussed [sic] the classified briefing.
Gabbatt, Adam (November 3, 2020). "Could Donald Trump refuse to accept defeat in US presidential election?". The Guardian. Over the past six months Trump has repeatedly refused to commit to a peaceful transition of power, when asked, and has claimed he will only lose if the election is rigged.
^Lazer, David; et al. (July 30, 2020), "Report #7: Update on Vote by Mail", COVID-19 Consortium for Understanding the Public's Policy Preferences Across States, State of the Nation: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey, archived from the original on November 3, 2020, retrieved November 8, 2020
^Bennet, John; Boyle, Louise; Baxter, Holly; Gray, Lucy; Connolly, Griffin (October 23, 2020). "Who won the presidential debate?". The Independent. Archived from the original on October 23, 2020. Retrieved October 23, 2020.
^Zhou, Li (November 14, 2020). "What we know about who Asian American voters supported in the election". Vox (website). Retrieved November 22, 2020. With strong turnout this year and more voters joining the electorate, it's evident that AAPI voters are a key base that can't be neglected. The upcoming races in Georgia, too, are yet another opportunity for such outreach.
^@realDonaldTrump (November 7, 2020). "I WON THIS ELECTION, BY A LOT!" (Tweet). Archived from the original on November 7, 2020. Retrieved November 8, 2020 – via Twitter. ((cite web)): |archive-date= / |archive-url= timestamp mismatch; November 9, 2020 suggested (help)
^Scarborough, Charles Joseph (December 1, 2020). "Morning Joe" (Interview). Interviewed by Scarborough, Mika Emilie Leonia Brzezinski. MSNBC. Just so people who think this, to call this a coup is hyperbolic, or an attempted coup, you just look at the definition in Wikipedia: it says, "Typically, it's an illegal, unconstitutional attempt to seize power by a political faction". Definition of a coup. Of course, if he's already in power, it'd be an "autocoup". But at the same time, you look at the definition, and if... I guess I would just say to Trump defenders, if it's not an attempted coup, if it's not an "illegal unconstitutional attempt to seize power by a political faction" when he's trying to call people to the White House to get them to change their votes, trying to call the Governor of Arizona to try to stop him from doing legally what he has to do which is to certify the election results, trying to get those in Michigan and Wayne County to illegally not certify the votes there... if Republicans don't think it's a coup or doesn't fit this definition of a coup in all four corners then I'd love to hear what they would call it.((cite interview)): CS1 maint: url-status (link)
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