Presidential straw polls in Guam
Map of the United States with Guam highlighted
Number of straw polls10
Voted Democratic6
Voted Republican4
Voted for winning candidate8
Voted for losing candidate2

Because it is a U.S. territory instead of a U.S. state, voters in Guam are ineligible to elect members of the Electoral College, who would then in turn cast direct electoral votes for president and for vice president. The territory nonetheless conducts a non-binding straw poll on the day of the presidential general election to gauge the preference for president every election year.[1]

The poll has been held in Guam during every presidential election since 1980.[1] It was established after the Legislature of Guam passed Public Law 15-49, which requires the Guam Election Commission to conduct the poll. The law also instructs the Chairman of the Board of the Guam Election Commission to essentially conduct a meeting of electors like those in the states and act as the territory's sole elector, including formally casting an electoral college ballot for the presidential ticket receiving the highest number of votes in the territory, and then officially sending the result to the U.S. Congress.[2]

Because Guam is 15 hours ahead of the contiguous United States, the poll is regarded as an indicator of how the rest of the country will vote.[3] The territory is home to three U.S. military bases and current and former service members, and has historically had a higher voter turnout than the mainland.[4] Since 1980, the results of the Guam poll have aligned with the results of the mainland, except in two instances: in 1980, when the islanders favored Jimmy Carter, and in 2016, when they favored Hillary Clinton.

Results

Winners of the territory are in bold.

Year Winner (nationally) Votes Percent Loser (nationally) Votes Percent Other national
candidates[a] 		Votes Percent
2020[5] Joe Biden 14,445 55.36 Donald Trump 10,938 41.92
2016[3] Donald Trump[b] 7,779 24.17 Hillary Clinton 23,052 71.62
2012[1][2] Barack Obama 22,688 72.51 Mitt Romney 8,252 26.37
2008[2][3] Barack Obama 20,119 62.3 John McCain 11,941 37
2004[2][3] George W. Bush 21,490 64.1 John Kerry 11,781 35.1
2000[6] George W. Bush[b] 18,075 51.58 Al Gore 16,549 47.22
1996[2][7] Bill Clinton 19,265 — Bob Dole 12,524 —
1992[2] Bill Clinton 10,233 — George H. W. Bush 6,817 —
1988[2] George H. W. Bush 14,241 — Michael Dukakis 9,646 —
1984[2] Ronald Reagan 17,259 — Walter Mondale 9,429 —
1980[8] Ronald Reagan 9,658 37.3 Jimmy Carter 14,352 55.4 John B. Anderson 954 3.7

Notes

  1. ^ For purposes of these lists, other national candidates are defined as those who won at least one electoral vote, or won at least ten percent of the vote in multiple states.
  2. ^ a b Won the electoral college while losing the popular vote

References

  1. ^ a b c "Guam's Straw Poll Picks Obama, Overwhelmingly". National Public Radio. November 6, 2012.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h "2012 Election Comparative Analysis Report". Guam Election Commission. July 5, 2013. p. 39. Retrieved May 27, 2020.
  3. ^ a b c d "Guam, which has historically predicted election winner, picks Clinton". USA Today. November 8, 2016.
  4. ^ "Guam's voters tend to predict the presidency — but they have no say in the Electoral College". PRI.org. November 8, 2016.
  5. ^ "Summary Results Report" (PDF). November 4, 2020.
  6. ^ "Summary Results Report". July 22, 2021.
  7. ^ Arroyo, Rafael H. (7 November 1996). "Guam Republicans Poised to Control New Legislature" (PDF). Marianas Variety. Vol. 25, no. 171. p. 6. Retrieved 22 October 2020.
  8. ^ "Election Comparative Analysis Report". Guam Election Commission.
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