Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. The Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice. Major party candidates seek the nomination through a series of primary elections that select the delegates who choose the candidate at the party's national convention. Each party's national convention chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket. The nominee for president usually picks the running mate, who is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.
The general election in November is an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[26]
Election offices are dealing with increased workloads and public scrutiny, so officials in many key states have sought for more funds to hire more personnel, improve security, and extend training. This demand emerges at a moment when numerous election offices are dealing with an increase in retirements and a flood of public record demands, owing in part to the electoral mistrust planted by former President Donald Trump's loss in the 2020 election. Both Biden and Trump are presumptive nominees for president in 2024, suggesting a rematch of the 2020 election, which would be the first presidential rematch since 1956.[27] If Trump is elected, he would become the second president to win a second non-consecutive term, joining Grover Cleveland who did so in 1892.[28]
To sow election doubt, Trump has escalated use of "rigged election" and "election interference" statements in advance of the 2024 election compared to the previous two elections—the statements described as part of a "heads I win; tails you cheated" rhetorical strategy.[36]
Donald Trump has made false claims of voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election, and has continued denying the election results as of June 2024[update].[37][38] Election security experts have warned that officials who deny the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election may attempt to impede the voting process or refuse to certify the 2024 election results.[39] In the lead up to the 2024 election, the Republican Party has made false claims of massive "noncitizen voting" by immigrants in an attempt to delegitimize the election if Trump loses.[40][41][42]
The claims have been made as part of a larger election denial movement in the United States.[43] Trump has continued spreading his "Big Lie" of a stolen election and has claimed without evidence that the 2024 election is rigged. Trump has baselessly claimed some version of "election interference" against him roughly once per day since announcing his 2024 candidacy. Trump has falsely accused Biden of "weaponizing" the Justice Department to target him in relation to his criminal trials.[36] Trump and several Republicans have stated they will not accept the results of the 2024 election if they believe they are "unfair."[44]
The Washington Post reported in June 2024 on indications that county-level Republicans in swing states might be preparing to challenge and delay their certifications of voting results in 2024. Such delays might cause a state to miss deadlines that ensure its electoral college votes are counted in Washington on January 6, 2025. In four state elections since 2020, county election officials withheld certifications, citing mistrust in voting machines or ballot errors, though they could not produce evidence of actual voting fraud; the certifications proceeded after state interventions, which included warnings of potential (and in Arizona, actual) criminal charges. Voting rights activists were concerned that the continuing false allegations of election fraud since 2020 might lead to social unrest if efforts to delay certifications at the local level were overruled by state officials or courts. The failure of a state to have its electoral college votes counted on January 6 could result in neither presidential candidate reaching the minimum 270 electoral votes, causing the election to be thrown to the House. In that scenario, the election outcome would be determined by a simple majority count of state delegations; Republicans hold a majority in 28 of 50 delegations in the 118th United States Congress.[62]
The New York Times reported in July 2024 that "the Republican Party and its conservative allies are engaged in an unprecedented legal campaign targeting the American voting system" by systematically searching for vulnerabilities. The effort involves restricting voting and short-circuiting the certification process should Trump lose. The Republican strategy involves first persuading voters that the election is about to be stolen by Democrats, despite lacking evidence. After the election, if Trump loses, lawyers would attempt to challenge decades of settled law as to how elctions are certified.[63]
During the campaign, Trump often referred to "election integrity" to allude to his continuing lie that the 2020 election was rigged and stolen, as well as baseless predictions of future mass election fraud. As he did during the 2020 election cycle, without evidence Trump told supporters that Democrats might try to rig the 2024 election. Many Republicans believe a conspiracy theory claiming Democrats engage in systematic election fraud to steal elections, insisting election integrity is a major concern, though voting fraud is extremely rare. By 2022, Republican politicians, conservative cable news outlets and talk radio echoed a narrative of former Trump advisor Steve Bannon that "if Democrats don't cheat, they don't win." Appearing with Trump in April 2024, House SpeakerMike Johnson baselessly suggested "potentially hundreds of thousands of votes" might be cast by undocumented migrants; as president, Trump falsely asserted that millions of votes cast by undocumented migrants had deprived him of a popular vote victory in the 2016 election. Politico reported in June 2022 that the RNC sought to deploy an "army" of poll workers and attorneys in swing states who could refer what they deemed questionable ballots in Democratic voting precincts to a network of friendly district attorneys to challenge. In April 2024, RNC co-chair Lara Trump said the party had the ability to install poll workers who could handle ballots, rather than merely observe polling places. She also said that the 2018 expiration of the 1982 consent decree prohibiting the RNC from intimidation of minority voters "gives us a great ability" in the election. Trump's political operation said in April 2024 that it planned to deploy more than 100,000 attorneys and volunteers to polling places across battleground states, with an "election integrity hotline" for poll watchers and voters to report alleged voting irregularities. Trump told a rally audience in December 2023 that they needed to "guard the vote" in Democratic-run cities. He had complained that his 2020 campaign was not adequately prepared to challenge his loss in courts; some critics said his 2024 election integrity effort is actually intended to gather allegations to overwhelm the election resolution process should he challenge the 2024 election results. Marc Elias, a Democratic election lawyer who defeated every Trump court challenge after the 2020 election, remarked, "I think they are going to have a massive voter suppression operation and it is going to involve very, very large numbers of people and very, very large numbers of lawyers."[64]
Interference by foreign nations
Current and former U.S. officials have stated that foreign interference in the 2024 election is likely. Three major factors cited were "America's deepening domestic political crises, the collapse of controversial attempts to control political speech on social media, and the rise of generative AI."[65] On April 1, 2024, The New York Times reported that the Chinese government had created fake pro-Trump accounts on social media "promoting conspiracy theories, stoking domestic divisions and attacking President Biden ahead of the election in November."[66] According to disinformation experts and intelligence agencies, Russia spread disinformation ahead of the 2024 election to damage Joe Biden and Democrats, boost candidates supporting isolationism, and undercut support for Ukraine aid and NATO.[67][68]
Criminal trials and indictments against Donald Trump
Trump's four criminal indictments totaling 91 felony counts and lawsuits against Trump are expected to be an issue during the 2024 presidential campaign.[69] On May 30, Trump was found guilty by a jury of all 34 felony counts in The People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump over falsifying business records for hush money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels, to ensure her silence about a sexual encounter between them, to influence the 2016 presidential election. This makes Trump the first former U.S. president to be convicted of a crime in American history.[70] Trump and many Republicans have made numerous false and misleading statements regarding Trump's criminal trials, including false claims that they are "rigged" or "election interference" orchestrated by Joe Biden and the Democratic Party, of which there is no evidence.[71][36]
According to an April 2024 Reuters/Ipsos poll, the percentage of registered voters who found Trump's charges somewhat to very serious in the federal elections case was 74%, 72% in the Georgia case, 69% in the classified documents case, and 64% in the New York hush money case.[79] Nearly a quarter of Republican voters said they would not vote for Trump if found guilty of a felony by a jury.[78] Following his hush money conviction, 15% of likely Republican voters and 49% of independents stated they wanted Trump to drop out, and 54% of registered voters approved of the jury's decision.[80] Polling also found 56% of Republicans who were unchanged by the verdict, and 35% of Republicans and 18% of independents who stated they were more likely to vote for Trump.[81]
Trump has been noted for attempting to delay his trials until after the November election. If Trump wins the election in November, then on January 20, 2025, Trump could order a new attorney general to dismiss the federal charges he is facing, prevent the state charges from taking affect through a variety of methods, and issue a presidential self-pardon.[82][83]
On July 1, 2024, the US Supreme Court delivered its 6–3 decision in Trump v. United States, along ideological lines, ruling that Trump had absolute immunity for acts he committed as president within his core constitutional purview, at least presumptive immunity for official acts within the outer perimeter of his official responsibility, and no immunity for unofficial acts.[84][85][86] Thus, Trump's sentencing date for his convictions in New York was delayed from July to September 2024,[87] and likely the trial dates in Trump's other cases will be delayed as well, to review the applicability of the Supreme Court's decision.[88][89]
Political violence
Several scholars, lawmakers, intelligence agencies, and the public have expressed concerns about political violence surrounding the 2024 election.[90][91] The fears come amidst increasing threats and acts of physical violence targeting public officials and election workers at all levels of government.[92][93] Polling has shown increases in Americans supporting the use of violence to achieve political outcomes, with such support greater among Republicans than independents and Democrats.[94] Trump has increasingly embraced extremism, conspiracy theories such as Q-Anon, and far-right militia movements to a greater extent than any modern American president.[95][96] Trump has espoused dehumanizing, combative, and violent rhetoric and promised retribution against his political enemies.[104] Trump has played down but refused to rule out violence following the 2024 election, stating "it depends".[105]
On July 13, 2024, Trump was the victim of an assassination attempt during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.[106]
Electoral map
Effects of the 2020 census
This will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College following the 2020 United States census.[107][108] If the results of the 2020 election were to stay the same (which has never occurred in the history of presidential elections) in 2024, Democrats would have 303 electoral votes against the Republicans' 235, a slight change from Biden's 306 electoral votes and Trump's 232, meaning that Democrats lost a net of 3 electoral votes to the reapportionment process. This apportionment of electoral college votes will remain only through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States census.[109]
Historical background
The expected partisan lean of the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia on the presidential level. The shading of each state denotes the winner's two-party vote share, averaged between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. States that flipped in 2020 are colored gray.
In recent presidential elections, most states are not competitive due to demographics keeping them solidly behind one of the major parties. Because of the nature of the Electoral College, this means that the various swing states — competitive states that "swing" between the Democratic and Republican parties — are vital to winning the presidency. As of now, these include states in the Rust Belt, such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and states in the Sun Belt, such as Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia.[110] Strategists in both parties have stated the election will likely be decided by six percent of voters in these six states.[111]
North Carolina may also be considered a battleground state, due to the close result in the previous presidential election, in which Trump only won by 1.34%.[112] Due to gradual demographic shifts, some former swing states such as Iowa, Ohio and Florida have shifted significantly towards the Republicans, favoring them in future statewide and local elections. Meanwhile, former swing states like Colorado, New Mexico and Oregon have moved noticeably towards the Democrats, and the party has become the dominant political force there.[113][114][115]
The Democratic electoral coalition, securing the "blue states" for Democratic presidential candidates, performs best among Jewish and Black voters;[116][117]Whites who have attended college[118] or live in urban areas.[119]Working class voters were also a mainstay of the Democratic coalition since the days of the New Deal, but since the 1970s, many have defected to Republicans as the Democratic Party moved significantly to the left on cultural issues.[120] Conversely, the traditional Republican coalition that dominates many "red states" is mainly composed of rural White voters, evangelicals, the elderly, and non-college educated voters.[121] Republicans have also historically performed well with suburban, middle class voters since the 1950s, but this bloc has drifted away from them in recent years due to the rise of the Tea Party movement and later the Make America Great Again movement.[122] The acceleration of this trend has been credited with tipping the 2020 presidential election in favor of Democrat Joe Biden, because the incumbent Trump was historically unpopular in the suburbs for a Republican candidate, underperforming there significantly.[123]
Some polling for this election has indicated that Democratic strength among Hispanic, Asian, Arab, and youth voters appears to have somewhat eroded, while Republicans' durability with Whites and voters over the age of 65 also appears to be slipping.[124][125][126][127][128] However, some political analysts[129] have argued that these apparent trends in polling are not representative of the actual electorate, and are a polling mirage resulting from poor sampling months before the election, large numbers of voters who do not think the election will be between Biden and Trump,[130] and heavy non-response bias.[131][132][133][134]
Abortion access is expected to be a key topic during the campaign.[15] This is the first presidential election to be held in the aftermath of two major court rulings that affected access to abortion. The first is the 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, in which the United States Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, leaving abortion law entirely to the states, including bans on abortion.[138] The three justices appointed by former president Donald Trump—Amy Coney Barrett, Brett Kavanaugh, and Neil Gorsuch—all voted to overturn the federal right to an abortion in Dobbs.[139] The second court case is the 2023 Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine v. U.S. Food and Drug Administration, in which a federal judge in northwest Texas overturned the FDA's approval of mifepristone in 2000, which could potentially pull the medication from the market if upheld by higher courts.[140] Both rulings have received strong support from Republican politicians and lawmakers.[138][140]
Biden has called on Congress to codify abortion protections into federal law, and held many rallies on the issue.[143][144] Trump has claimed credit for overturning Roe, but has criticized Republicans pushing for total abortion bans.[145][146] Trump has said he will leave the issue of abortion for the states to decide, but would allow red states to monitor women's pregnancies and prosecute them if they have an abortion.[147]
Border security and immigration
Polling has shown that border security and immigration are among the top issues concerning potential voters in the 2024 presidential election.[148][149] In 2023 and early 2024, a surge of migrants entering the country through the United States' border with Mexico occurred.[150] By June 2024, illegal crossings reached a three-year low following four consecutive monthly drops, which senior U.S. officials attributed to increased enforcement between the United States and Mexico, the weather, and Biden's executive order increasing asylum restrictions.[151]
Donald Trump has pledged to finish the wall on the southern border if elected.
Donald Trump has stated that if elected, he would increase deportations, send the U.S. military to the border, expand ICE detentions through workplace raids,[152] deputize local law enforcement to handle border security, increase Customs and Border Patrol funding as well as finish building the wall on the southern border.[153]The New York Times reported that Trump is considering "an extreme expansion of his first-term crackdown on immigration," such as "preparing to round up undocumented people already in the United States on a vast scale and detain them in sprawling camps while they wait to be expelled."[152] Trump has stated his intention to deport 11 million people through the construction of detention camps and using the military.[147] Trump has made false claims of a "migrant crime wave" that are not supported by national data.[154]
Biden has stated that he intends to increase funds and resources for border security and enforcement, offer a pathway for people in the United States to apply for legal status and eventually citizenship, and simplify and expand the visa process for foreign graduates of American universities.[155] The Biden administration has undertaken a policy of punishing migrants who enter the country illegally and providing temporary protections to migrants from certain countries such as Venezuela, Ukraine, Nicaragua, Cuba and Haiti. This has resulted in a total increase in migrants legally arriving at points of entry, and a decrease in migrants attempting to illegally cross the border.[153]
In February 2024, Biden and congressional negotiators reached a bipartisan agreement on a bill to secure the border that included many conservative demands and also unlocked aid to Ukraine and Israel, but the bill was opposed by Trump who claimed it would hurt Republicans' ability to run on immigration as a campaign issue.[156][157][158][159][160][161] On June 4, 2024, Biden passed an executive order to shut down the border if illegal crossings reached an average of 2,500 migrants a day in a given week.[162]
Trump's anti-immigration tone is noted to have grown harsher from his previous time as president,[152] and has drawn criticism for using more dehumanizing rhetoric when referring to some illegal immigrants. Trump has called some immigrants "not human", "not people", and "animals".[98][163][164] Since fall 2023,[165] Trump has claimed that immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country," which has drawn comparisons to racial hygiene rhetoric used by white supremacists and Adolf Hitler.[166][167][165][100] Trump's comments come as part of violent, dehumanizing rhetoric Trump has increasingly utilized during his campaign.[97][98][99][100][101][102]
Kennedy has stated that he supports securing the border, including efforts like Operation Lone Star by states in the absence of federal action.[168]
Climate change
Climate change is expected to be an issue in the 2024 presidential election.[22][23]
Biden has stated he believes in human-caused climate change.[170] Biden previously strengthened environmental protections that had been weakened during the Trump administration. Biden passed the Inflation Reduction Act, the largest investment in addressing climate change and clean energy in US history.[171] Biden has also overseen a record in US crude oil production with over 13.2 million barrels of crude per day beating the 13 million barrels per day produced at the peak of Trump's presidency. Biden has previously stated his intention to lower prices at the gas pump, which experts believe is key to his 2024 reelection campaign.[172] Biden's first term dealt with supply shocks caused by the 2021-2024 global energy crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine.[173]
Trump is running on a climate change denial platform.[174][175][176] Trump has repeatedly referred to his energy policy under the mantra "drill, baby, drill",[177] has promised to increase oil drilling on public lands and offer tax breaks to oil, gas, and coal producers. Trump has stated his goal for the U.S. to have the lowest cost of electricity and energy of any country in the world.[178] Trump has promised to roll back electric vehicle initiatives, proposed leaving the Paris Climate Accords, and rescinding several environmental regulations.[178][179]
Joe Biden has been framing the election as a battle for democracy, which was similar to his framing of contemporary geopolitics as "the battle between democracy and autocracy."[180] Biden's rhetoric previously cited democracy and "a battle for the soul of our nation" as the key message of his 2020 presidential campaign, and uses it as a recurring element in his rhetoric since the 2020 presidential election.[137]
Polling before the election has indicated profound dissatisfaction with the state of American democracy.[181][182][183]Liberals tend to believe that conservatives are threatening the country with autocratic tendencies and their attempts to overturn the 2020 election.[184] Some Republicans are concerned that Trump's former impeachment and four criminal indictments are attempts to influence the election and keep him from office.[185] However, there is no evidence that Trump's criminal trials are "election interference" orchestrated by Joe Biden and the Democratic Party.[71][36]
Speaking on Erin Burnett OutFront, Kennedy said that President Biden poses a bigger threat to democracy than Donald Trump.[194] Trump has claimed that Joe Biden is the "destroyer"[195] and real threat to democracy,[196] and has repeated false claims that the 2020 election was rigged and stolen from him, of which there has been no evidence. Trump's claims have been made as part of a larger election denial movement conspiracy theory in the United States.[195]
Democracy is expected to be a large issue in the 2024 election. An AP-NORC poll of 1,074 adults conducted between November 30 to December 4, 2023, found that 62% of adults said democracy could be at risk depending on who wins the next election.[197]
Economic issues
The inflation rate, United States and eurozone, January 2018 to March 2024. Inflation notably increased during the 2021–2023 inflation surge.
Women were particularly affected by the economic downturn in the wake of the pandemic, particularly those who left their work for childcare responsibilities.[204] Temporary childcare measures, including an expanded child tax credit as part of the American Rescue Plan, were introduced as methods designed to help the economic situation of parents, but these would expire before the 2024 election.[205]
Biden has dubbed his economic policy "Bidenomics" and has promised to create middle-class jobs and reject trickle-down economics.[215] Biden has proposed increasing taxes on large corporations and wealthy Americans to reduce the deficit and help fund programs for the poor and middle class by instituting a "billionaire minimum income tax."[216] Biden's trade agenda has been noted to reject traditional neoliberal economic policies and the Washington Consensus in favor of de-risking supply chains from China and reverse neoliberal policies that resulted in the offshoring of manufacturing and thus resulted in increased populist backlash.[217] Biden has enacted several targeted tariffs against China in strategic sectors such as EVs, solar cells, steel, and aluminum to protect American manufacturing and blunt China's technological and military ambitions.[218]
Trump has proposed further individual and corporate tax cuts beyond his prior 2017 tax cuts.[219] Trump has argued that keeping taxes low for the wealthy increases job creation.[216] Trump's stated trade policy involves the United States decoupling from the global economy and having the country become more self-contained and exerting its power through individual trade dealings. This would be accomplished through a universal baseline tariff[220] of 10% on all imports,[221] with increased penalties if trade partners manipulate their currency or engage in unfair trade practices.[178]
Trump has called for 100% tariffs on cars made outside the U.S. and a minimum 60% tariff on Chinese goods.[221] Trump stated his plans to urge Congress to pass a "Trump Reciprocal Trade Act" to bestow presidential authority to impose a reciprocal tariff on any country that imposed one on the United States.[178]The Washington Post reported in January 2024 that Trump was preparing for a massive trade war.[222] Trump's trade policies have been described as protectionist,[223]neomercantilist or autarkist.[220][224]
Education
Under the Biden administration, several rounds of student loan forgiveness have been issued, totaling over $132 billion. The forgiveness has largely focused on public servants, people who were defrauded, and people in repayment for long periods of time.[225] In August 2022, Biden announced he would sign an executive order that would forgive large amounts of student debt, including $10,000 for student loan debt for single graduates making less than $125,000 or married couples making less than $250,000 and $20,000 for recipients of Pell Grants.[226][227]
In June 2023, this plan was overturned in the Supreme Court decision Biden v. Nebraska.[228][229] In the aftermath of the decision, Biden has continued with more limited student loan forgiveness.[225] His plans have been criticized by Republicans as irresponsible spending.[230] Biden stated that offering universal pre-kindergarten services as well as caregiver support would be a priority of a second term.[231]
Some Republican candidates saw education as a winning campaign issue. Dozens of states have created laws preventing the instruction of critical race theory, an academic discipline focused on the examination of racial inequality. Supporters of the laws claim that conversations about racial identity are not appropriate for a school environment.[232][233][18] Critics of the laws against critical race theory claim they whitewash American history and act as memory laws to rewrite public memory of U.S. history.[234] Trump has pledged to terminate the Department of Education,[178] claiming it has been infiltrated by "radical zealots and Marxists."[235]
Biden has made ensuring that no other world power should surpass the United States in the military and economic spheres a focus of his presidency.[237] As part of this, the United States has provided significant military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine throughout the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[238][239][240] Biden has made strengthening the NATO alliance and preparing for great power competition with Russia and China a cornerstone of his first term in office,[241] and has promised to defend the NATO alliance during his second term.[242]
Trump's 2024 campaign has reiterated its isolationist "America First" foreign policy agenda,[243][244] and has promised to "fundamentally reevaluate" NATO's purpose and mission.[178] Trump has stated he would encourage Russia to "do whatever the hell they want" to countries that did not contribute enough to NATO.[245] Trump has said he would cut off aid to Ukraine quickly if reelected.[246] Trump previously stated he would potentially recognize Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea,[247] and made suggestions that he could have prevented the war by ceding parts of eastern Ukraine to Russia.[243]
During the Israel–Hamas war, Biden announced "unequivocal" military support for Israel, and condemned the actions of Hamas and other Palestinian militants as terrorism.[248] Biden has provided $26 billion worth of wartime aid for Israel through Congress.[249] By March 2024, Biden has become increasingly critical of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and has authorized air drops of aid and announced the construction of a military port to facilitate the delivery of aid to the enclave.[250][251] Kennedy condemned Hamas' attacks on Israeli civilians and declared support for aid to Israel.[252] Trump has given mixed messages on the war, pledging to support Israel and take a tough line on Iran, while also criticizing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and praising Hezbollah as "very smart."[253][254]
Israel-Hamas war views
Polling has indicated a significant divide between government policy on the Israel–Hamas war and the views of the general public.[255] During the election, several pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian protests occurred in the United States. Biden voiced support for the right to protest but criticized when they became violent or antisemitic.[256] Trump has stated he would shut down Palestinian protests, deport demonstrators, and "set the movement back 25 or 30 years."[257]
A November 2023 poll had 68% of Americans agreeing with a statement that "Israel should call a ceasefire and try to negotiate" and a plurality opposed military aid to Israel, favoring the United States as a neutral meditator.[255] A February 2024 Associated Press poll found that 44% saw Israel as "a partner that the U.S. should cooperate with, but doesn't share its interests and values", while 35% saw Israel "as an ally that shares U.S. interests and values". 50% of Americans believed Israel had "gone too far" in its response, 31% thought Israel had "been about right" and 15% thought Israel had "not gone far enough".[258] Biden's support for Israel has been criticized by a vocal minority[259] progressives and Muslim leaders, some of whom have indicated they will not vote for Biden over the war.[260] Young Americans are significantly less supportive of Israel than older generations.[261][262] However, polling showed the war was only a "top concern" for 2% of young voters, well below inflation, the economy, and immigration.[263]
Trump has made repealing the Affordable Care Act a key issue of the 2024 election.[17] During an interview on March 11, 2024, Trump suggested he was open to cutting entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare, which the Trump campaign later claimed was merely referring to "cutting waste" and that he would protect the programs. Trump previously suggested while president in 2020 that he would "at some point" look into cutting entitlement programs, and Trump's previous budget proposals have suggested some cuts to the programs. During the Republican primary, Trump attacked his opponents by suggesting they would cut entitlement benefits.[266][267]
Biden has touted the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which expanded the Affordable Care Act and included provisions to reduce prescription drug prices for people on Medicare.[268] Biden has promised to protect and defend the Affordable Care Act after Trump commented he would seek to replace the law if he wins a second term,[269][270] and Republican senators expressed openness to repealing certain sections of the law.[271][272] Biden has promised to defend Social Security and Medicare following comments made by Trump that suggested he was open to cutting the entitlement programs.[266][267] Biden has also signaled his intention to expand the price cap on the cost of insulin at $35 for Medicare recipients enacted as part of the Inflation Reduction Act to private insurance.[155] Biden previously signed one of the largest expansions in veterans benefits in American history through the Honoring our PACT Act of 2022 that provided medical care for veterans exposed to toxic burn pits.[273]
Kennedy has been a prominent anti-vaccine advocate, but according to Deseret News, he has attempted to moderate his anti-vaccine position before the election, stating that he is not against all vaccines.[274] West is running on a platform of Medicare-for-all.[275]
LGBT rights
Students in Des Moines protesting an anti-trans law signed by Republican Governor Kim Reynolds in 2022
In recent years, conservative politicians in state legislatures have introduced a large and growing number of bills that restrict the rights of LGBT people, especially transgender people.[276][277]
In his term as president, Biden signed the Respect for Marriage Act, which codified protections for same-sex and interracial marriage into law. Additionally, he has endorsed the Equality Act, legislation aiming to extend the Civil Rights Act of 1964 to offer protection on the basis of gender identity and sexual orientation across various domains such as in the workplace, housing, and health care sectors. In 2023, Biden directed the federal government to provide strategies to states on how to enhance access to healthcare and suicide prevention resources for the LGBT community.[278]
Trump has promised a rollback on trans rights.[279] Trump stated he will rescind Biden's Title IX protections "on day one" for transgender students using bathrooms, locker rooms, and pronouns that align with their gender identities.[280] Trump has stated he would enact a federal law that would recognize only two genders and claimed that being transgender is a concept made up by "the radical left."[281] Trump has pledged "severe consequences" for teachers who "suggest to a child that they could be trapped in the wrong body." Trump previously withdrew Title IX safeguards that ensured transgender youth had access to the bathrooms of their choice, and he attempted to roll-back transgender rights in the Affordable Care Act.[279]
Democratic Party
The popular vote results of the 2024 Democratic presidential primaries
On April 25, 2023, President Joe Biden announced his run for re-election, keeping Vice President Kamala Harris as his running mate.[282][283] Consequently, Republicans have intensified their criticism of Harris since Biden declared his intention to run for office.[284] During late 2021, as Biden was facing low approval ratings, there was speculation that he would not seek re-election,[285] and RepresentativesCarolyn Maloney, Tim Ryan and former Representative Joe Cunningham (all Democrats), publicly urged Biden not to run.[286][287][288]
In addition to Biden's unpopularity, many are concerned about his age; he was the oldest person to assume the office at age 78 and would be 82 at the end of his first term. If re-elected, he would be 86 at the end of his second term.[289] According to an NBC poll released in April 2023, 70 percent of Americans—including 51 percent of Democrats—believe Biden should not run for a second term. Almost half said it was because of his age. According to the FiveThirtyEight national polling average, Biden's current approval rating is 41 percent, while 55 percent disapprove.[290] There was also speculation that Biden may face a primary challenge from a member of the Democratic Party's progressive faction.[291][292] After Democrats outperformed expectations in the 2022 midterm elections, many believed the chances that Biden would run for and win his party's nomination had increased.[293]
Author Marianne Williamson announced her candidacy in February 2023, before Biden announced his own candidacy for re-election. Williamson had previously sought the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020.[294] In April 2023, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his candidacy for the nomination.[295] On October 9, 2023, Kennedy announced that he would be dropping out of the Democratic primary and would instead run as an independent candidate.[296] Representative Dean Phillips announced his run against Biden on October 26.[297] Venture capitalist Jason Palmer announced his campaign on October 22.[298]
Williamson announced her initial withdrawal on February 7, 2024,[299] though she resumed her campaign a few weeks later.[300] On March 6, 2024, Philips suspended his campaign after failing to win any primaries the previous night on Super Tuesday,[301] followed by Williamson on June 11.[302] Despite being perceived as a minor candidate, Palmer won the American Samoa caucuses, making him the first candidate to win a contested primary against an incumbent president since Ted Kennedy in 1980.[303] He won no other contests and suspended his candidacy on May 15, 2024.[304] On March 12, 2024, Biden obtained a majority of delegates, officially becoming the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.[305] Williamson re-entered the presidential race on July 2 and called for an open convention.[306]
Donald Trump, the then-incumbent president, was defeated by Biden in the 2020 election and is not term-limited to run again in 2024, making him the fifth ex-president to seek a second non-consecutive term. If he wins, Trump would be the second president to win a non-consecutive term, after Grover Cleveland in 1892.[307] Trump filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on November 15, 2022, and announced his candidacy in a speech at Mar-a-Lago the same day.[308][309] Trump was considered an early frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, following his 2024 campaign announcement on November 15, 2022.[310] Trump announced in March 2022 that if he runs for re-election and wins the Republican presidential nomination, his former vice president Mike Pence will not be his running mate.[311]
In March 2023, Trump was indicted over his hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.[312] Trump was again indicted in June over his handling of classified documents which contained materials sensitive to national security. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all the charges related to these indictments.[313][314]
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was seen as the main challenger to Trump for the Republican nomination; he raised more campaign funds in the first half of 2022 and had more favorable polling numbers than Trump by the end of 2022.[315][316][317]
On May 24, 2023, DeSantis announced his candidacy on Twitter in an online conversation with Twitter CEO Elon Musk. "American decline is not inevitable—it is a choice...I am running for president of the United States to lead our great American comeback", DeSantis added. His campaign stated to have raised $1 million in the first hour following the announcement of his candidacy.[318] Speaking on Fox & Friends, he stated that he would "destroy leftism" in the United States.[319] At the end of July 2023, FiveThirtyEight's national polling average of the Republican primaries had Trump at 52 percent, and DeSantis at 15.[320]
Following the Iowa caucuses, in which Trump posted a landslide victory, DeSantis and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump, leaving the former president and Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor who served in Trump's cabinet, as the only remaining major candidates.[321][322] Trump continued to win all four early voting contests while Haley's campaign struggled to gain momentum.[323] On March 6, 2024, the day after winning only one primary out of fifteen on Super Tuesday, Haley suspended her campaign. Trump became the only remaining major candidate for the Republican presidential nomination.[324]
On March 12, 2024, Trump officially became the presumptive Republican presidential nominee.[325]
Third-party and independent candidates have also announced presidential runs. They include Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Cornel West. Centrist political organization No Labels intended to field a third-party "unity ticket", before abandoning their efforts in April 2024.[327] Some established third parties, such as the American Solidarity Party, the Prohibition Party, the Constitution Party, the Libertarian Party and the Party for Socialism and Liberation have announced presidential nominees, while the Green Party has begun their primaries. While independent/third-party candidates often do better in opinion polls than actual election performance,[10] third-party candidates, as of April 2024, have the strongest showing in polls since Ross Perot's high poll numbers in the 1990s.[328]
Notable party nominations
The following individuals have been nominated by their respective parties to run for president.
Jill Stein announced on May 26, 2024, that her campaign had accrued enough delegates to secure the Green Party nomination and thus became the presumptive nominee.[331][332][333] Stein was the party's candidate back in 2012 and 2016. Stein is a physician and a former member of the LexingtonTown Meeting. No running mate has yet been announced, with the 2024 Green National Convention to take place from August 15 to 18, 2024.[334] As of June 2024[update], Stein has ballot access both on Green Party and Independent ballot lines in at least 22 states with a total of 273 electoral votes.[335][better source needed]
Cornel West is a socialist activist and intellectual who announced a campaign as an independent after initially announcing a run as a People's Party and later a Green Party candidate.[275] His running mate is Melina Abdullah, an academic and civic leader from California.
0px 2024 independent ticket (with the "Justice for All" party in some states)
Local regression of two-way polling between Trump and Biden conducted up to the 2024 United States presidential election (excludes others and undecided)
Local regression of two-way polling between Trump, Biden and Kennedy conducted up to the 2024 United States presidential election (excludes others and undecided)
Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts of the composition of the Electoral College. These forecasts use a variety of factors to estimate the likelihood of each candidate winning the Electoral College electors for that state. Most election predictors use the following ratings:
"tossup": no advantage
"tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
"lean" or "leans": slight advantage
"likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
In April 2022, the Republican National Committee voted unanimously to withdraw from the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD).[382] In May 2024, the Biden campaign proposed hosting two debates outside of the CPD timetable and refusing to participate in CPD-hosted debates. Biden and Trump agreed to debates on CNN on June 27 and ABC News on September 10.[383]
June 27
CNN hosted the first major debate of the election on June 27, with 51 million viewers watching.[384] Media outlets characterized Biden's debate performance as a "disaster". Some pundits noted that he frequently lost his train of thought and gave meandering, confused answers.[385][386][387]
G. Elliott Morris and Kaleigh Rogers of ABC News' 538 argued that Biden had failed to reassure voters that he was capable of serving as president for another four years.[388] After the debate, elected officials, party strategists, and fundraisers conversed about replacing Biden as the party's candidate, including whether prominent Democrats should make a public statement asking him to step aside.[389] Biden stated that he would not be dropping out.[390]Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton reiterated their support for Biden following the debate.[391][392]
September 10
The second presidential debate is scheduled to be held on September 10 and will be hosted by ABC News.[393]
^ abCalculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^The FiveThirtyEight forecast[372] and Economist[373] each rate only a handful of states as "safe." States rated safe by all other forecasts but FiveThirtyEight and Economist are omitted
^ abcUnlike the other 48 states and Washington, D.C., which award all of their electors to the candidate who receives the most votes in that state, Maine and Nebraska award two electors to the winner of the statewide vote and one each to the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district.
^The boundaries of Nebraska's 2nd congressional district have since changed due to redistricting.
^Nuzzi, Olivia (November 22, 2023). "The Mind-Bending Politics of RFK Jr". Intelligencer. Archived from the original on March 6, 2024. Retrieved March 6, 2024. The general election is now projected to be a three-way race between Biden, Trump, and their mutual, Kennedy, with a cluster of less popular third-party candidates filling out the constellation.
^ abBenson, Samuel (November 2, 2023). "RFK Jr.'s big gamble". Deseret News. Archived from the original on November 21, 2023. Retrieved November 21, 2023. Early polls show Kennedy polling in the teens or low 20s
Edsall, Thomas B. (April 12, 2023). "How The Right Came To Embrace Intrusive Government". The New York Times. ISSN0362-4331. Archived from the original on April 12, 2023. Retrieved April 12, 2023. Republicans in states across the country are defiantly pushing for the criminalization of abortion — of the procedure, of abortifacient drugs and of those who travel out of state to terminate pregnancy... According to research provided to The Times by the Kaiser Family Foundation, states that have abortion bans at various early stages of pregnancy with no exception for rape or incest include Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
^ abcdYourish, Karen; Smart, Charlie (May 24, 2024). "Trump's Pattern of Sowing Election Doubt Intensifies in 2024". The New York Times. ISSN0362-4331. Archived from the original on May 25, 2024. Retrieved May 25, 2024. Former President Donald J. Trump has baselessly and publicly cast doubt about the fairness of the 2024 election about once a day, on average, since he announced his candidacy for president, according to an analysis by The New York Times ... This rhetorical strategy — heads, I win; tails, you cheated — is a beloved one for Mr. Trump that predates even his time as a presidential candidate ... Long before announcing his candidacy, Mr. Trump and his supporters had been falsely claiming that President Biden was "weaponizing" the Justice Department to target him.
^Broadwater, Luke (May 21, 2024). "House G.O.P. Moves to Crack Down on Noncitizen Voting, Sowing False Narrative". The New York Times. ISSN0362-4331. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved May 23, 2024. Republicans are pushing legislation to crack down on voting by noncitizens, which happens rarely and is already illegal in federal elections, in a move that reinforces former President Donald J. Trump's efforts to delegitimize the 2024 results if he loses.
^Basu, Zachary (May 22, 2024). "Trump spreads false "assassination" claims as voters fear violence". Axios. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved May 23, 2024. Former President Trump and his allies have already signaled they will not accept the results of the election if they believe it's "unfair," reviving the type of rhetoric that helped incite the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.
^Ibrahim, Nur (December 5, 2022). "Did Trump Say Election Fraud Allows for 'Termination' of US Constitution?". Snopes. Archived from the original on May 31, 2023. Retrieved December 9, 2023. In sum, Trump posted on Truth Social that, what he believed to be, election fraud in the 2020 presidential election allows "for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution." For that reason, we rated this claim "Correct Attribution."
^Feuer, Alan; Haberman, Maggie (April 13, 2024). "Inside Donald Trump's Embrace of the Jan. 6 Rioters". The New York Times. ISSN0362-4331. Archived from the original on April 13, 2024. Retrieved April 14, 2024. Recently, however, his celebrations of the Capitol riot and those who took part in it have become more public as he has promoted a revisionist history of the attack and placed it at the heart of his 2024 presidential campaign ... Mr. Trump hasn't always embraced Jan. 6 — at least not openly ... Mr. Trump's embrace of Jan. 6 not only has meant describing the attack in which more than 100 police officers were injured as a "love fest." It also has led him to tell a journalist that he wanted to march to the Capitol that day but that his team had prevented him from doing so.
^Gamio, Lazaro; Yourish, Karen; Haag, Matthew; Bromwich, Jonah E.; Haberman, Maggie; Lai, K.K. Rebecca (May 30, 2024). "The Trump Manhattan Criminal Verdict, Count By Count". The New York Times. Archived from the original on May 30, 2024. Retrieved May 30, 2024.
^Baker, Peter (December 1, 2022). "Trump Embraces Extremism as He Seeks to Reclaim Office". The New York Times. ISSN0362-4331. Archived from the original on April 16, 2024. Retrieved July 13, 2024. Analysts and strategists see Mr. Trump's pivot toward the far right as a tactic to re-create political momentum ... Mr. Trump has long flirted with the fringes of American society as no other modern president has, openly appealing to prejudice based on race, religion, national origin and sexual orientation, among others ... Mr. Trump's expanding embrace of extremism has left Republicans once again struggling to figure out how to distance themselves from him.
^Swenson, Ali; Kunzelman, Michael (November 18, 2023). "Fears of political violence are growing as the 2024 campaign heats up and conspiracy theories evolve". The Associated Press. Archived from the original on May 11, 2024. Retrieved July 13, 2024. Trump has amplified social media accounts that promote QAnon, which grew from the far-right fringes of the internet to become a fixture of mainstream Republican politics ... In his 2024 campaign, Trump has ramped up his combative rhetoric with talk of retribution against his enemies. He recently joked about the hammer attack on Paul Pelosi and suggested that retired Gen. Mark Milley, a former Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman, should be executed for treason.
^ abcdLayne, Nathan; Slattery, Gram; Reid, Tim (April 3, 2024). "Trump calls migrants 'animals,' intensifying focus on illegal immigration". Reuters. Archived from the original on June 17, 2024. Retrieved April 3, 2024. While speaking of Laken Riley - a 22-year-old nursing student from Georgia allegedly murdered by a Venezuelan immigrant in the country illegally - Trump said some immigrants were sub-human. "The Democrats say, 'Please don't call them animals. They're humans.' I said, 'No, they're not humans, they're not humans, they're animals,'" said Trump, president from 2017 to 2021.
^Levitz, Eric (October 19, 2022). "How the Diploma Divide Is Remaking American Politics". New York. Archived from the original on October 20, 2022. Retrieved October 21, 2022. Blue America is an increasingly wealthy and well-educated place. Throughout the second half of the 20th century, Americans without college degrees were more likely than university graduates to vote Democratic. But that gap began narrowing in the late 1960s before finally flipping in 2004... A more educated Democratic coalition is, naturally, a more affluent one... In every presidential election from 1948 to 2012, white voters in the top 5 percent of America's income distribution were more Republican than those in the bottom 95 percent. Now, the opposite is true: Among America's white majority, the rich voted to the left of the middle class and the poor in 2016 and 2020, while the poor voted to the right of the middle class and the rich.
^Munis, Kal; Jacobs, Nicholas (October 20, 2022). "Why Resentful Rural Americans Vote Republican". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on October 20, 2022. Retrieved October 21, 2022. ...that the disproportionately White, older, more religious, less affluent and less highly educated voters who live in rural areas are more likely to hold socially conservative views generally championed by Republicans. Meanwhile, urban areas are filled with younger, more racially diverse, more highly educated and more affluent people who hold the more socially liberal views generally championed by Democrats.
^Charen, Mona (November 9, 2018). "Who Votes Republican". RealClearPolitics.com. Real Clear Politics. Archived from the original on November 16, 2018. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
^Cost, Jay. "Losing the Suburbs". AEI.com. AEI. Archived from the original on February 21, 2020. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
Edsall, Thomas B. (April 12, 2023). "How The Right Came To Embrace Intrusive Government". The New York Times. ISSN0362-4331. Archived from the original on April 12, 2023. Retrieved April 12, 2023. Republicans in states across the country are defiantly pushing for the criminalization of abortion — of the procedure, of abortifacient drugs and of those who travel out of state to terminate pregnancy... According to research provided to The Times by the Kaiser Family Foundation, states that have abortion bans at various early stages of pregnancy with no exception for rape or incest include Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
Edsall, Thomas B. (April 12, 2023). "How The Right Came To Embrace Intrusive Government". The New York Times. ISSN0362-4331. Archived from the original on April 12, 2023. Retrieved April 12, 2023. Republicans in states across the country are defiantly pushing for the criminalization of abortion — of the procedure, of abortifacient drugs and of those who travel out of state to terminate pregnancy... According to research provided to The Times by the Kaiser Family Foundation, states that have abortion bans at various early stages of pregnancy with no exception for rape or incest include Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
^Leonhardt, David (January 17, 2024). "A 2024 Vulnerability". The New York Times. Archived from the original on January 26, 2024. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
^Bordoff, Jason (December 2022). "America's Landmark Climate Law". International Monetary Fund. Archived from the original on January 18, 2024. Retrieved January 16, 2024. The Inflation Reduction Act is the most significant piece of climate legislation in the history of the United States.
^Lindsay, James M. (December 1, 2023). "Campaign Roundup: The Republican Presidential Candidates on Climate Change". Council on Foreign Relations. Archived from the original on December 12, 2023. Retrieved December 11, 2023. Donald Trump hasn't said how he would approach climate change if he returns to the White House. But during his first term in office, he withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement and regularly ridiculed the idea of man-made climate change.
^Gärtner, Heinz (2023). "Great Power Conflict". China and Eurasian powers in a Multipolar World Order 2.0: Security, Diplomacy, Economy and Cyberspace. Mher Sahakyan. New York: Routledge. pp. xxiii. ISBN978-1-003-35258-7. OCLC1353290533.
^Lerer, Lisa (March 28, 2024). "4 Presidents, 2 Events and a Preview of Campaign Clashes to Come". The New York Times. ISSN0362-4331. Archived from the original on March 30, 2024. Retrieved March 30, 2024. Nearly all Democratic Party officials, politicians and strategists stand behind his effort. Yet, he has faced sustained opposition from a vocal minority of progressives who have protested the war in Gaza, through protest votes and event disruptions.
^Shear, Michael D. (August 10, 2022). "Biden Signs Bill to Help Veterans Who Were Exposed to Toxic Burn Pits". The New York Times. Archived from the original on January 8, 2024. Retrieved January 7, 2024. The new law, known as the PACT Act, makes it easier for veterans who believe they were exposed to toxins during their service to apply for medical benefits from the Department of Veterans Affairs. The law creates a $280 billion stream of federal funding, making it one of the largest expansions of veterans benefits in American history.
^Benson, Samuel (November 2, 2023). "RFK Jr.'s big gamble". Deseret News. Archived from the original on November 2, 2023. Retrieved November 3, 2023. He's shared a number of controversial theories relating to school shootings and COVID-19 vaccines. In more recent interviews, however, he's taken a more measured approach... Early polls show Kennedy polling in the teens or low 20s — a major underdog, but enough to put both major party nominees on edge...
^Silver, Nate (January 28, 2021). "How Popular Is Joe Biden?". FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on January 28, 2021. Retrieved June 16, 2023.
Oshin, Olafimihan (January 23, 2022). "Auschwitz Memorial says RFK Jr. speech at anti-vaccine rally exploits Holocaust tragedy". The Hill. Archived from the original on January 24, 2022. Retrieved January 27, 2022. During a speech at the rally, Kennedy, a conspiracy theorist and prominent anti-vaxxer, warned of a massive surveillance network being created with satellites in space and 5G mobile networks collecting data.
"Cheryl Hines Blasts Husband RFK Jr. for Holocaust Remark". The Wrap. January 25, 2022. Archived from the original on January 25, 2022. Retrieved January 27, 2022. Cheryl Hines has publicly condemned a statement made by her husband Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at a rally on Sunday, in which the environmental lawyer and conspiracy theorist likened COVID regulations to the Holocaust.
"Guests urged to be vaccinated at anti-vaxxer Robert F Kennedy Jr's party". The Guardian. December 18, 2021. Archived from the original on December 18, 2021. Retrieved January 27, 2022. The younger Kennedy has campaigned on environmental issues but is also a leading vaccines conspiracy theorist and activist against shots including those approved to combat Covid-19, which has killed more than 805,000 in the US and more than 5.3 million worldwide.
"Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s Conspiracy Theories Go Beyond Vaccines". The New York Times. July 6, 2023. Archived from the original on October 11, 2023. Retrieved October 12, 2023. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an environmental lawyer, is a leading vaccine skeptic and purveyor of conspiracy theories who has leaned heavily on misinformation as he mounts his long-shot 2024 campaign for the Democratic nomination.