2024 United States presidential election

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →

538 members of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win
 
Party Democratic Republican

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About this image
2024 electoral map, based on 2020 census

Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic



The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024.[1] It will be the first presidential election after electoral votes were redistributed during the 2020 census reapportionment cycle. The incumbent, President Joe Biden, stated in January 2022 his intent to run for reelection with Vice President Kamala Harris as his running mate.[2] As of March 2023, Biden has not formally announced a reelection campaign.[3] In November 2022, former president Donald Trump announced his candidacy for president for a second, nonconsecutive term.[4] In the United States, general elections follow caucuses and primary elections held by the major parties to determine their nominees. The winner of the 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025.

Abortion access,[5] LGBT rights such as same-sex marriage,[6] democratic backsliding[7] and the state of the economy[8] are expected to be leading campaign issues; this is the first presidential election to be held in the aftermath of the January 6 United States Capitol attack and Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization.

Background

Procedure

Main article: United States presidential election § Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. The Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice. Both incumbent president Biden and former president Donald Trump are eligible to seek reelection. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, which is awarded through a process such as a primary election. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The presidential nominee typically chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket, which is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.

Similarly, the general election in November is also an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[9] If no candidate receives the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, a contingent election will be held in which the House of Representatives will select the president from the three candidates who received the most electoral votes (this last happened in 1825), and the Senate will select the vice president from the candidates who received the two highest totals (this last happened in 1837). The presidential election will occur simultaneously with House of Representatives elections, Senate elections, and various state and local-level elections.

Both Biden and Trump have indicated that they intend to run for president in 2024, suggesting a potential rematch of the 2020 election, which would be the first presidential rematch since 1956.[10] If Trump is elected, he would become the first president since Grover Cleveland in 1892 to win a second non-consecutive term.[11]

Effects of the 2020 census

Main article: 2020 United States redistricting cycle

This will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College following the 2020 United States census.[12][13] This apportionment of electoral college votes will remain through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States census.[14]

Potential campaign issues

Abortion rights

Main article: Abortion in the United States

Status of elective abortion in the United Statesvte    .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}  Illegal   Legally unclear or legal but no providers   Legal before cardiac-cell activity[a]   Legal through 15th week LMP (1st trimester)   Legal through 18th week LMP   Legal through 20th week LMP   Legal through 22nd week LMP (5 months)   Legal before fetal viability[b]   Legal through 24th week LMP (5½ months)   Legal through second trimester[c]   Legal at any stage  LMP is the time since the last menstrual period began.  This color-coded map illustrates the current legal status of elective-specific abortion procedures in each of the individual 50 states, U.S. territories, and federal district[d] A colored border indicates that a more stringent restriction or ban, corresponding to the key, is blocked by the courts (as of March 18, 2023).
Status of elective abortion in the United States
  Illegal
  Legally unclear or legal but no providers
  Legal before cardiac-cell activity[a]
  Legal through 15th week LMP (1st trimester)
  Legal through 18th week LMP
  Legal through 20th week LMP
  Legal through 22nd week LMP (5 months)
  Legal before fetal viability[b]
  Legal through 24th week LMP (5½ months)
  Legal through second trimester[c]
  Legal at any stage
LMP is the time since the last menstrual period began.
This color-coded map illustrates the current legal status of elective-specific abortion procedures in each of the individual 50 states, U.S. territories, and federal district[d] A colored border indicates that a more stringent restriction or ban, corresponding to the key, is blocked by the courts (as of March 18, 2023).

Abortion rights are expected to be a leading topic, as this will be the first presidential election to be held in the aftermath of the 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, which overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision and permitted U.S. states to fully ban abortion for the first time in nearly 50 years.[15]

The topic of abortion could play a role in the Republican primary with many potential candidates, such as former vice president Mike Pence, supporting a nationwide ban on the procedure. Other potential candidates have struck a less aggressive tone and suggested that the matter should remain the decision of state governments.[16] Democrats are predominately supportive of its legality to the point of fetal viability.[15]

Democracy and insurrection threats

Main article: Democratic backsliding in the United States

Further information: Attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election, January 6 United States Capitol attack, and Republican efforts to restrict voting following the 2020 presidential election

Donald Trump did not concede defeat to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, citing unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud, and has continued denying the election results as of 2022.[17][18] Republican officials in the Trump administration and in Congress have supported attempts to overturn the election.[19][20] Election security experts have warned that officials who deny the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election may attempt to impede the voting process or refuse to certify the 2024 election results.[21]

In the 2022 midterm elections, the majority of Republican candidates in five battleground states[which?] falsely claimed or implied that the 2020 presidential election was illegitimate.[22] Election legitimacy was a major political issue during the 2022 elections, and it is credited for unexpectedly strong Democratic performance that year.[23][24] Nevertheless, according to the New York Times, by November 9, nearly 200 election deniers had been elected to office.[25]

In the aftermath of the January 6 United States Capitol attack, FBI director Christopher A. Wray testified that far-right domestic terrorism "has been metastasizing across the country for a long time now, and it's not going away anytime soon."[26] Ali Alexander, who organized one of the many rallies preceding the U.S. Capitol attack, stated in August 2022 that he would be returning to the Capitol building in 2025 "for whatever the Congress certifies."[27]

Economy

Main article: Economy of the United States

Further information: U.S. federal government response to the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic left behind significant economic effects which could persist into the 2024 presidential election.[28] An October 2022 New York Times/Siena College poll indicated that Americans were most concerned about the state of the economy and the rate of inflation.[29]

LGBT rights

Main articles: LGBT rights in the United States and Same-sex marriage in the United States

U.S. state constitutional amendments banning same-sex unions   Constitutional amendment bans same-sex marriage, civil unions, and any marriage-like contract between unmarried persons   Constitutional amendment bans same-sex marriage and civil unions   Constitutional amendment bans same-sex marriage   No state constitutional amendment bans legal recognition of same-sex unions   Constitutional amendment recognizes same-sex marriage
U.S. state constitutional amendments banning same-sex unions
  Constitutional amendment bans same-sex marriage, civil unions, and any marriage-like contract between unmarried persons
  Constitutional amendment bans same-sex marriage and civil unions
  Constitutional amendment bans same-sex marriage
  No state constitutional amendment bans legal recognition of same-sex unions
  Constitutional amendment recognizes same-sex marriage

LGBT rights in the United States, particularly same-sex marriage,[6] are expected to be a leading issue of the 2024 presidential campaign.[30] The current composition of the Supreme Court has led to widespread speculation that the present majority will vote to overturn the 2015 Obergefell v. Hodges decision, which ruled that marriage was a fundamental right for same-sex couples.[31][32] In the event of repeal, a majority of states would not legally issue same-sex marriage within their justifications;[33] however, the Respect for Marriage Act requires the federal government and all states and territories to recognize the validity of same-sex marriages in other states.[34] There are several so-called "zombie laws" that would become activated if Obergefell is overturned.[35]

According to the Public Religion Research Institute:[6]

Same-sex couples would [only] be legally allowed to marry in the District of Columbia and 18 states [if Obergefell is overturned]: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington. In the rest of the states, same-sex marriage would become banned.

According to Human Rights Campaign, 410 anti-LGBT bills have been introduced in states, with 180 of those bills going against transgender rights in the 2023 legislative session as of March 2023.[36] In a February campaign message, Donald Trump said that if reelected, he would enact a federal law that would recognize only two genders, claimed that being transgender is a concept made up by "the radical left", and would enact nearly a dozen policies that would target transgender Americans. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is seen as a 2024 challenger to Trump, has called for physicians who give gender-affirming healthcare to minors to be sued.[37]

Democratic Party

Main article: 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries

President Joe Biden has consistently stated that he plans to run for re-election and keep Vice President Kamala Harris as his running mate.[2] However, he has yet to officially declare his candidacy. During late 2021, as Biden was suffering from low approval ratings, there was speculation that he would not seek re-election,[38] and some prominent Democrats have publicly urged Biden not to run.[39][40][41] In addition to Biden's unpopularity, many are concerned about his age; he was the oldest person to assume the office at age 78 and would be 82 at the end of his first term. If re-elected, he would be 86 at the end of his second term.[42] There has also been speculation that Biden may face a primary challenge from a member of the Democratic Party's progressive faction,[43][44] an opinion that has proven to be vindicated with author, progressive activist and 2020 Biden rival Marianne Williamson declaring a primary challenge in March 2023 before Biden could announce his own intentions.[45] However, Biden's approval rating slowly recovered throughout 2022, climbing from the low 30s to the high 40s.[46] Additionally, after Democrats outperformed expectations in the 2022 midterm elections, many believed the chances that Biden would run for and win his party's nomination had increased.[47]

Declared candidates

Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
Announcement date
Ref
Marianne Williamson Profile.jpg

Marianne Williamson
July 8, 1952
(age 70)
Houston, Texas
Author
Founder of Project Angel Food
Candidate for President in 2020
Flag-map of California.svg
California
MW2024 01272023 logo PRIMARY ltblue ltpink cropped.webp

March 4, 2023
FEC filing[48]
[45]

Republican Party

Main article: 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries

Donald Trump was defeated by Biden in 2020 and is currently eligible to run again in 2024. Currently he is seeking to become the second president to serve two non-consecutive terms, after only Grover Cleveland (who did so by winning the 1892 United States presidential election).[49] Trump is considered an early frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, following his 2024 campaign announcement on November 15, 2022.[50] However, there are multiple factors working against Trump: the hearings held by the United States House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack have damaged public opinion towards him,[51][52] and in 2022 the FBI searched Trump's estate at Mar-a-Lago.[53][54]

Although Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has not officially announced a presidential run, he is often seen as a main contender to Trump for the presidency; DeSantis raised more campaign funds in the first half of 2022, and had more favorable polling numbers than Trump by the end of 2022.[55][56][57] Trump announced in March 2022 that if he runs for re-election and wins the Republican presidential nomination, his former vice president Mike Pence will not be his running mate.[58] If Trump runs against President Biden again, it will be the first presidential rematch since 1956 after Dwight D. Eisenhower successfully ran for reelection against Adlai Stevenson II. Trump filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission on November 15, 2022, and announced his candidacy in a speech at Mar-a-Lago the same day.[59][60]

On February 14, 2023, Nikki Haley filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission,[61] and on February 15, 2023, in Charleston, South Carolina, officially announced her candidacy, making her the first challenger to former President Donald Trump's campaign.[62][63][64]

Declared candidates

Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
Announcement date
Ref
Nikki Haley and Glenn Youngkin 3 (cropped).jpg

Nikki Haley
January 20, 1972
(age 51)
Bamberg, South Carolina
Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018)
Governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)
Flag-map of South Carolina.svg
South Carolina
Nikki Haley for President logo.png

Campaign
February 14, 2023
FEC filing[65]
[66]
Vivek Ramaswamy at AmericaFest 2022 (cropped).jpg

Vivek Ramaswamy
August 9, 1985
(age 37)
Cincinnati, Ohio
Executive chairman of Strive Asset Management (2022–present)
CEO of Roivant Sciences (2014–2021)
Ohio Flag Map Accurate.png
Ohio
Vivek 2024 Logo.png

Campaign
February 21, 2023
FEC filing[67]
[68]
Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg

Donald Trump
June 14, 1946
(age 76)
Queens, New York
President of the United States (2017–2021)
Chairman of The Trump Organization (1971–2017)
Flag-map of Florida.svg
Florida
Trump 2024 2022 Campaign Logo.png

Campaign
November 15, 2022
FEC filing[69][70]
[71]

Libertarian Party

Main article: 2024 Libertarian Party presidential primaries

Declared candidates

Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
Announcement date
Ref Website
Joe Exotic (Santa Rose County Jail).png

Joe Exotic
March 5, 1963
(age 60)
Garden City, Kansas
Zookeeper and media personality
Flag map of Indiana.svg
Indiana
March 10, 2023
FEC filing[72]
[73] [74]
Lars Mapstead Unknown President of Fupa Games
Flag-map of California.svg
California
March 23, 2021

FEC filing[75]

[76] [77]
Mike ter Maat Portland, Oregon Former Candidate for Congress
Flag-map of Virginia.svg
Virginia
April 18, 2022

FEC filing[78]

[76] [79]

Formed exploratory committee

As of March 2023, the following individual has announced exploratory committees to look into running for president within the previous six months.

Independents, other third parties, or party unknown

Candidates

Declared intent to run

As of March 2023, the following individuals have declared their intent to run for president.

Potential candidates

Declined to be candidates

General election opinion polling

Main articles: Nationwide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election and Statewide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election

Timeline

Further information: Timeline of the 2024 United States presidential election

See also

Notes

  1. ^ This generally happens in the 6th week LMP.
  2. ^ Typically, it is between the 23rd or 24th week LMP.
  3. ^ Variously defined as through 27th or 28th week LMP; in Massachusetts, 24 weeks from implantation ≈ 27 weeks LMP.
  4. ^ All states but the state of Tennessee (which has an affirmative defense instead) make exceptions if the mother’s life is in danger.
    • Exceptions for risk to mother's physical health: Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
    • Exceptions for risk to mother's general health: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New York, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington.
    • Exception for pregnancy due to rape and/or incest: Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Mississippi, North Dakota, South Carolina, West Virginia, Utah, and Wyoming.
    • Exception for lethal fetal abnormality: Alabama, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, South Carolina, West Virginia, Wyoming, and Utah.

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