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Elections in Ohio |
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Ohio will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Ohio. Primary elections are scheduled to take place on March 19, 2024.[1] Incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown is seeking a fourth term in office.[2] This race is one of three Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2024 in a state Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, alongside Montana and West Virginia. Brown's re-election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.[3]
Ohio has trended towards Republicans in recent years and is now seen as a moderately red state at the federal level. Republicans hold the other U.S. Senate seat and all statewide executive offices along with majorities in both state legislative chambers and the U.S. representative delegation. However, in the 2022 midterms Democrats managed to net gain a seat in Ohio's U.S. House delegation.[4][5]
Former President Donald Trump won Ohio in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections by about 8 points. Republican J. D. Vance defeated Democrat Tim Ryan in the 2022 U.S. Senate election by about 6 points.[6][7]
Brown was first elected in 2006, defeating then-incumbent U.S. Senator Mike DeWine, and has won reelection in 2012 and 2018.[8][9][10] Even with the state's Republican partisan lean, this race is expected to be highly competitive, as Brown is generally popular among Ohioans and polling thus far has mostly shown him with a slight lead.[11]
Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Sherrod Brown (D) | $27,838,244 | $14,594,991 | $14,614,497 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[27] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Sherrod Brown |
Shontel Brown |
Tim Ryan |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 256 (LV)[b] | ± 8.3% | 58% | 6% | 15% | 21% |
Ohio Northern University | Jul 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 59% | 7% | 17% | 17% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Sherrod Brown (incumbent) | |||
Total votes |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Candidates | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||
Matt Dolan | Frank LaRose | Bernie Moreno | |||||
1 | Jan. 22, 2024 | FOX 8 | Colleen Marshall Joe Toohey |
FOX 8 | P | P | P |
Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Matt Dolan (R) | $9,142,313[c] | $4,336,931 | $4,851,971 |
Frank LaRose (R) | $1,854,196[d] | $1,082,585 | $771,611 |
Bernie Moreno (R) | $7,253,753[e] | $5,250,499 | $2,003,254 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[27] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Matt Dolan |
Frank LaRose |
Bernie Moreno |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | January 23-25, 2024 | 1844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 15% | 21% | 22% | – | 42% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[A] | December 12–14, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 16% | 18% | 22% | – | 44% |
SurveyUSA[B] | December 8–12, 2023 | 573 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 18% | 33% | 12% | 1%[f] | 35% |
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[C] | December 3–5, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 18% | 19% | 23% | – | 40% |
co/efficient (R)[C] | November 18–20, 2023 | 950 (LV) | ± 3.18% | 13% | 14% | 15% | – | 58% |
Emerson College/WJW-TV | November 10–13, 2023 | 468 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 15% | 18% | 10% | 32%[g] | 25% |
Data for Progress (D) | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 294 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 20% | 30% | 7% | 0%[h] | 43% |
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 269 (LV)[i] | ± 8.2% | 13% | 30% | 7% | 2% | 49% |
Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 18% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 43% |
Suffolk/USA Today | July 9–12, 2023 | 190 (RV) | – | 14% | 19% | 9% | – | 57% |
East Carolina University | June 21–24, 2023 | 405 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 14% | 17% | 7% | 4% | 58% |
Causeway Solutions (R)[D] | May 19–27, 2023 | 526 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 11% | 24% | 6% | 17% | 42% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Matt Dolan | |||
Republican | Frank LaRose | |||
Republican | Bernie Moreno | |||
Total votes |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[67] | Tossup | November 9, 2023 |
Inside Elections[68] | Tossup | November 9, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[69] | Tossup | November 9, 2023 |
Elections Daily[70] | Tossup | May 4, 2023 |
CNalysis[71] | Tossup | December 21, 2023 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Sherrod Brown (D) |
Matt Dolan (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | January 23-25, 2024 | 1844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 38% | 37% | 5% | 20% |
Emerson/WJW-TV | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 38% | - | 22% |
Data for Progress (D) | October 31–November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | - | 7% |
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 30% | 0% | 25% |
Emerson College | October 1–3, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 36% | 38% | – | 26% |
Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 33% | 0% | 22% |
Suffolk University | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% |
East Carolina University | June 21–24, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 44% | 4% | 7% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Sherrod Brown (D) |
Frank LaRose (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | January 23-25, 2024 | 1844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 39% | 37% | 6% | 18% |
Emerson/WJW-TV | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 36% | - | 24% |
Data for Progress (D) | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | - | 8% |
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 31% | 0% | 25% |
Emerson College | October 1–3, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 38% | 39% | – | 23% |
Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 32% | 0% | 23% |
Suffolk University | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 45% | – | 10% |
East Carolina University | June 21–24, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 42% | 4% | 11% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Sherrod Brown (D) |
Bernie Moreno (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | January 23-25, 2024 | 1844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 39% | 37% | 5% | 18% |
Emerson/WJW-TV | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 32% | - | 26% |
Data for Progress (D) | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 44% | - | 9% |
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 26% | 1% | 25% |
Emerson College | October 1–3, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 35% | 33% | – | 32% |
Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 28% | 0% | 27% |
Suffolk University | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 41% | – | 10% |
East Carolina University | June 21–24, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 42% | 2% | 11% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Sherrod Brown (D) |
Joel Mutchler (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data for Progress (D) | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 43% | - | 9% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Sherrod Brown (D) |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Causeway Solutions (R)[D] | May 19–27, 2023 | 1639 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 39% | 37% | 24% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Sherrod Brown (incumbent) | |||
Republican | TBD | |||
Total votes |