2024 United States Senate election in Ohio

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Nominee Sherrod Brown (presumptive) TBD
Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent U.S. senator

Sherrod Brown
Democratic



The 2024 United States Senate election in Ohio will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Ohio. Primary elections are scheduled to take place on March 19, 2024.[1] Incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown is seeking a fourth term in office.[2] This race is one of three Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2024 in a state Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, alongside Montana and West Virginia. Brown's re-election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.[3]

Background

Ohio has trended towards Republicans in recent years and is now seen as a moderately red state at the federal level. Republicans hold the other U.S. Senate seat and all statewide executive offices along with majorities in both state legislative chambers and the U.S. representative delegation. However, in the 2022 midterms Democrats managed to net gain a seat in Ohio's U.S. House delegation.[4][5]

Former President Donald Trump won Ohio in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections by about 8 points. Republican J. D. Vance defeated Democrat Tim Ryan in the 2022 U.S. Senate election by about 6 points.[6][7]

Brown was first elected in 2006, defeating then-incumbent U.S. Senator Mike DeWine, and has won reelection in 2012 and 2018.[8][9][10] Even with the state's Republican partisan lean, this race is expected to be highly competitive, as Brown is generally popular among Ohioans and polling thus far has mostly shown him with a slight lead.[11]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Presumptive nominee

Endorsements

Sherrod Brown

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Sherrod Brown (D) $27,838,244 $14,594,991 $14,614,497
Source: Federal Election Commission[27]

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Sherrod Brown vs. Tim Ryan vs. Shontel Brown
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Sherrod
Brown
Shontel
Brown
Tim
Ryan
Undecided
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023 256 (LV)[b] ± 8.3% 58% 6% 15% 21%
Ohio Northern University Jul 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% 59% 7% 17% 17%

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Sherrod Brown (incumbent)
Total votes

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Failed to qualify

Declined

Debates

No. Date Host Moderator Link Candidates
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Matt Dolan Frank LaRose Bernie Moreno
1 Jan. 22, 2024 FOX 8 Colleen Marshall
Joe Toohey
FOX 8 P P P

Endorsements

Matt Dolan
State representatives
Local officials
Notable individuals
Organizations
Frank LaRose
State representatives
Bernie Moreno
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Ambassadors
U.S. Senators
Governors
Statewide officals
U.S Representatives
Individuals
Political parties
Organizations
Declined to endorse

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Matt Dolan (R) $9,142,313[c] $4,336,931 $4,851,971
Frank LaRose (R) $1,854,196[d] $1,082,585 $771,611
Bernie Moreno (R) $7,253,753[e] $5,250,499 $2,003,254
Source: Federal Election Commission[27]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Matt
Dolan
Frank
LaRose
Bernie
Moreno
Other Undecided
Emerson College January 23-25, 2024 1844 (RV) ± 2.3% 15% 21% 22% 42%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[A] December 12–14, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 16% 18% 22% 44%
SurveyUSA[B] December 8–12, 2023 573 (LV) ± 4.6% 18% 33% 12% 1%[f] 35%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[C] December 3–5, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 18% 19% 23% 40%
co/efficient (R)[C] November 18–20, 2023 950 (LV) ± 3.18% 13% 14% 15% 58%
Emerson College/WJW-TV November 10–13, 2023 468 (LV) ± 4.5% 15% 18% 10% 32%[g] 25%
Data for Progress (D) October 31 – November 2, 2023 294 (LV) ± 6.0% 20% 30% 7% 0%[h] 43%
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023 269 (LV)[i] ± 8.2% 13% 30% 7% 2% 49%
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% 18% 32% 7% 1% 43%
Suffolk/USA Today July 9–12, 2023 190 (RV) 14% 19% 9% 57%
East Carolina University June 21–24, 2023 405 (RV) ± 4.0% 14% 17% 7% 4% 58%
Causeway Solutions (R)[D] May 19–27, 2023 526 (RV) ± 2.5% 11% 24% 6% 17% 42%

Results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Matt Dolan
Republican Frank LaRose
Republican Bernie Moreno
Total votes

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[67] Tossup November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[68] Tossup November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[69] Tossup November 9, 2023
Elections Daily[70] Tossup May 4, 2023
CNalysis[71] Tossup December 21, 2023

Polling

Sherrod Brown vs. Matt Dolan
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Sherrod
Brown (D)
Matt
Dolan (R)
Other Undecided
Emerson College January 23-25, 2024 1844 (RV) ± 2.3% 38% 37% 5% 20%
Emerson/WJW-TV November 10–13, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 38% - 22%
Data for Progress (D) October 31–November 2, 2023 597 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 46% - 7%
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023 668 (RV) ± 3.8% 45% 30% 0% 25%
Emerson College October 1–3, 2023 438 (RV) ± 4.5% 36% 38% 26%
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% 45% 33% 0% 22%
Suffolk University July 9–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 43% 11%
East Carolina University June 21–24, 2023 805 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 44% 4% 7%
Sherrod Brown vs. Frank LaRose
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Sherrod
Brown (D)
Frank
LaRose (R)
Other Undecided
Emerson College January 23-25, 2024 1844 (RV) ± 2.3% 39% 37% 6% 18%
Emerson/WJW-TV November 10–13, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 36% - 24%
Data for Progress (D) October 31 – November 2, 2023 597 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 46% - 8%
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023 668 (RV) ± 3.8% 44% 31% 0% 25%
Emerson College October 1–3, 2023 438 (RV) ± 4.5% 38% 39% 23%
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% 45% 32% 0% 23%
Suffolk University July 9–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 45% 10%
East Carolina University June 21–24, 2023 805 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 42% 4% 11%
Sherrod Brown vs. Bernie Moreno
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Sherrod
Brown (D)
Bernie
Moreno (R)
Other Undecided
Emerson College January 23-25, 2024 1844 (RV) ± 2.3% 39% 37% 5% 18%
Emerson/WJW-TV November 10–13, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 32% - 26%
Data for Progress (D) October 31 – November 2, 2023 597 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 44% - 9%
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023 668 (RV) ± 3.8% 48% 26% 1% 25%
Emerson College October 1–3, 2023 438 (RV) ± 4.5% 35% 33% 32%
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% 45% 28% 0% 27%
Suffolk University July 9–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 41% 10%
East Carolina University June 21–24, 2023 805 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 42% 2% 11%
Hypothetical polling
Sherrod Brown vs. Joel Mutchler
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Sherrod
Brown (D)
Joel
Mutchler (R)
Other Undecided
Data for Progress (D) October 31 – November 2, 2023 597 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 43% - 9%
Sherrod Brown vs. generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Sherrod
Brown (D)
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Causeway Solutions (R)[D] May 19–27, 2023 1639 (RV) ± 2.5% 39% 37% 24%

Results

United States Senate election in Ohio, 2024
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Sherrod Brown (incumbent)
Republican TBD
Total votes

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f g Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ A subset of poll respondents who said they planned to vote in the Democratic primary
  3. ^ $7,000,000 of this total was self-funded by Dolan
  4. ^ $250,000 of this total was self-funded by LaRose
  5. ^ $3,000,000 of this total was self-funded by Moreno
  6. ^ Joel Mutchler with 1%
  7. ^ "Someone else" with 29%; Joel Mutchler with 3%
  8. ^ Joel Mutchler with 0%
  9. ^ A subset of poll respondents who said they planned to vote in the Republican primary
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by Buckeye Values PAC, which supports Moreno
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by the Center for Election Science
  3. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Moreno's campaign
  4. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Leadership for Ohio Fund, which supports LaRose

References

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  9. ^ "2012 Ohio Senate Results". Politico. Retrieved May 5, 2023.
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  29. ^ Beavers, Olivia (July 17, 2023). "Ohio's messy GOP Senate primary gets a third candidate". Politico. Retrieved July 17, 2023.
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  37. ^ Sewell, Dan (January 17, 2023). "Anti-woke crusader mulls political future". The Cincinnati Enquirer. Retrieved January 30, 2023. He decided against running in the 2022 Senate race won by Vance, and he's not gearing up to run for Senate next year.
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  63. ^ Balmert, Jessie (January 11, 2024). "Gov. Mike DeWine mum on whether he'll back Trump. Says he'll back Senate primary winner". The Columbus Dispatch. Retrieved January 16, 2024. 'We have three very good people running for the United States Senate and whoever wins the primary, I will support that individual for United States Senate,' DeWine said Thursday.
  64. ^ Boney, Stan (December 27, 2023). "Ohio leader talks marijuana, jobs and 2026 governor's race". WKBN-TV. Retrieved January 2, 2024. 'I don't intend on endorsing in the Senate race'...Husted said.
  65. ^ Tobias, Andrew J. (December 1, 2023). "Ohio Republican Party endorses Donald Trump in 2024 election". The Plain Dealer. Retrieved January 2, 2024. The party issued no other primary election endorsements on Friday, including in the heated Republican Party for U.S. Senate
  66. ^ Mueller, Julia (July 19, 2023). "Ohio GOP braces for critical primary in bid to oust Sherrod Brown". The Hill. Retrieved September 26, 2023. The chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), told CBS News last week that his group...plans to stay neutral in the Ohio race.
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  71. ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
Official campaign websites