2020 United States presidential election in Iowa

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout75.77%Increase
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 6 0
Popular vote 897,672 759,061
Percentage 53.09% 44.89%


President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Iowa was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Iowa voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump of Florida, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Trump won the state 53.1% to Biden's 44.9%. Prior to this election, most news organizations had considered Iowa as either leaning towards Trump or a tossup. As was the case in Ohio, this election has confirmed Iowa's trend from a Midwestern swing state toward the GOP column, the same trend as neighboring Missouri starting in 2008. Iowa had voted Democratic in six of seven elections prior to 2016, the exception being George W. Bush's narrow plurality win in 2004. In 2016, however, Iowa voted for Trump by an unexpectedly large margin of 9.4%, voting over ten points to the right of the nation overall, indicating a possible realignment of the previously Democratic-leaning state towards the GOP, much as in the case of West Virginia in 2000 and 2004. Even though Biden contested the state,[3] Trump ended up carrying it by only a slightly reduced margin of 8.2% even as his national margin of defeat grew by 2.4%, meaning that the state voted even further to the right of the national average than it did in 2016.

This marked the first time since 2000 that the state voted for the national loser, and the first since 1988 that it voted for the loser of the popular and electoral vote. Biden improved on Hillary Clinton's margins in the Des Moines and Cedar Rapids metropolitan areas and traditionally conservative western Iowa, the latter of which borders Nebraska's 2nd congressional district (Omaha urban area), an electoral vote Trump won in 2016 but lost in 2020. Trump improved on his 2016 performance in populist northeast and south Iowa and became the first Republican to win Iowa in back-to-back elections since Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984.

Iowa is one of three states that voted twice for Barack Obama and Trump, the other two being Ohio and Florida. This is also the first time since 2004 that Iowa voted for a different candidate than neighboring Wisconsin.

Caucuses

The state's caucuses, traditionally the first major electoral event in the country, were held on February 3, 2020.[4]

Republican caucuses

Main article: 2020 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses

Incumbent president Donald Trump received about 97 percent of the votes in the Republican caucuses, and received 39 of the GOP delegates, while Bill Weld received enough votes to clinch 1 delegate.[5]

county
Counties won by these popular vote results
Map legend
  •   Trump—100%
  •   Trump—≥95%
  •   Trump—90–95%
  •   Trump—85–90%
congressional district
Congressional districts won by these popular vote results
Map legend
  •   Trump—≥95%
2020 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses[6][7]
Candidate Votes % Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump (incumbent) 31,421 97.14 39
Bill Weld 425 1.31 1
Joe Walsh 348 1.08 0
Other 151 0.47 0
Total 32,345 100% 40

Democratic caucuses

Main article: 2020 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses

After a three-day delay in votes being reported, the Iowa Democratic Party declared that Pete Buttigieg had narrowly won the state delegate equivalent (SDE) count of the Democratic caucuses with 26.2 percent. Bernie Sanders came in second with 26.1 percent of the SDEs, despite the fact that he received more popular votes (26.5 percent) than Buttigieg (25.1 percent). Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Amy Klobuchar finished in third, fourth, and fifth place, respectively.[8]

2020 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses[9][10][11]
Candidate Initial
alignment
Final
alignment[a]
State delegate
equivalents[b]
Pledged
national
convention
delegates[12][c]
Votes % Votes % Number %
Pete Buttigieg 37,572 21.31 43,209 25.08 562.95 26.17 [d]14
Bernie Sanders 43,581 24.71 45,652 26.50 562.02 26.13 [e]12
Elizabeth Warren 32,589 18.48 34,909 20.26 388.44 18.06 [f]8
Joe Biden 26,291 14.91 23,605 13.70 340.32 15.82 [g]6
Amy Klobuchar 22,454 12.73 21,100 12.25 263.87 12.27 1
Andrew Yang 8,914 5.05 1,758 1.02 21.86 1.02
Tom Steyer 3,061 1.74 413 0.24 6.62 0.31
Michael Bloomberg (did not run yet)[h] 212 0.12 16 0.01 0.21 0.01
Tulsi Gabbard 341 0.19 16 0.01 0.11 0.01
Michael Bennet 164 0.09 4 0.00 0.00 0.00
Deval Patrick 9 0.01 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
John Delaney (withdrawn) 0 0.00 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other 155 0.09 198 0.11 0.69 0.03
Uncommitted 1,009 0.57 1,420 0.82 3.73 0.17
Total[i] 176,352 100% 172,300 100% 2,150.83 100% 41

Libertarian caucuses

Main article: 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries

2020 Iowa Libertarian presidential caucuses

February 8, 2020 2024 →
← NH
MN →
 
Candidate Jacob Hornberger Lincoln Chafee
Home state Virginia Wyoming
Popular vote 133 36
Percentage 47.52% 12.77%

 
Candidate Jo Jorgensen Adam Kokesh
Home state South Carolina Indiana
Popular vote 18 17
Percentage 6.38% 6.03%

Election results by county
  Jacob Hornberger
  Lincoln Chafee
  Jo Jorgensen
  Adam Kokesh
  Dan Behrman
  John McAfee
  Vermin Supreme
  Sam Robb
  Ken Armstrong
  Tie
  No votes
Iowa Libertarian presidential caucus, February 8, 2020[15]
Candidate Votes Percentage
Jacob Hornberger 133 47.52%
Lincoln Chafee 36 12.77%
Jo Jorgensen 18 6.38%
Adam Kokesh 17 6.03%
Dan Behrman 14 4.96%
John McAfee 10 3.55%
Vermin Supreme 9 3.19%
Other (write-in) 8 2.84%
None of the above 8 2.84%
Sam Robb 7 2.48%
Max Abramson 6 2.13%
Mark Whitney 4 1.42%
Arvin Vohra 3 1.06%
Ken Armstrong 2 0.71%
Souraya Faas 2 0.71%
Benjamin Leder 1 0.35%
John Monds 1 0.35%
Total 281 100%

The Libertarian Party of Iowa conducted their own caucuses on February 8, offering in-person caucus locations and an online virtual caucus. Only registered Libertarian voters were eligible to participate.[16][17]

General election

Final predictions

Source Ranking
The Cook Political Report[18] Tossup
Inside Elections[19] Tossup
Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] Lean R
Politico[21] Tossup
RCP[22] Tossup
Niskanen[23] Tossup
CNN[24] Tossup
The Economist[25] Tossup
CBS News[26] Tossup
270towin[27] Tossup
ABC News[28] Tossup
NPR[29] Tossup
NBC News[30] Tossup
538[31] Lean R

Polling

Graphical summary

Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[j]
Margin
270 to Win October 31 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 46.2% 47.8% 6.0% Trump +1.6
Real Clear Politics October 23 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 45.6% 47.6% 6.8% Trump +2.0
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 46.3% 47.6% 6.1% Trump +1.3
Average 46.0% 47.7% 6.3% Trump +1.5

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling Nov 1–2, 2020 871 (V) 48% 49% 2%[l] 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 1,489 (LV) ± 3.5% 51%[m] 48%
Change Research Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020 1,084 (LV) ± 3.2% 47% 47% 3% 0% 2%[n] 1%
Civiqs/Daily Kos Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020 853 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 49% 3%[o] 0%
Data for Progress Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 951 (LV) ± 3.2% 49% 47% 3% 1% 1%[p]
Emerson College Oct 29–31, 2020 604 (LV) ± 3.9% 49%[q] 47% 4% 0%
InsiderAdvantage/Center for American Greatness Archived November 1, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[A] October 30, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 46% 1% 6%
Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register Oct 26–29, 2020 814 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 41% 8%[r] 2%[s]
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 3,005 (LV) ± 2.5% 50% 49% 2%
Quinnipiac University Oct 23–27, 2020 1,225 (LV) ± 2.8% 47% 46% 1%[t] 6%
RABA Research/WHO13 News Oct 21–24, 2020 693 (LV) ± 4% 46% 50% 2%[l] 1%
Emerson College Oct 19–21, 2020 435 (LV) ± 4.7% 48%[q] 48% 4%[u] 0%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Oct 15–21, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47%[v] 47% 2%[l] 4%
45%[w] 49% 2%[l] 4%
49%[x] 48% 2%[l] 4%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 18–20, 2020 753 (LV) ± 3.9% 43% 46% 2% 1% 1%[y] 7%[z]
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness Archived October 21, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[A] Oct 18–19, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 45% 2% 8%
Monmouth University Oct 15–19, 2020 501 (RV) ± 4.4% 48% 47% 1% 0%[aa] 2%[ab] 2%
501 (LV)[ac] 47% 50%
501 (LV)[ad] 46% 51%
David Binder Research/Focus on Rural America Oct 10–13, 2020 200 (LV) 50% 44%
Data for Progress (D) Oct 8–11, 2020 822 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 47% 2% 0% 3%
YouGov/CBS Oct 6–9, 2020 1,035 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 49% 2%[ae] 0%
Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[B] Oct 5–8, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 46%[q] 47% 3%[af] 4%[z]
Civiqs/Daily Kos Oct 3–6, 2020 756 (LV) ± 3.9% 47% 48% 4%[u] 1%
Quinnipiac University Oct 1–5, 2020 1,205 (LV) ± 2.8% 45% 50% 2%[l] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 1,276 (LV) 52% 46% 2%
Data for Progress (D) Sep 23–28, 2020 743 (LV) ± 3.6% 47%[v] 44% 1% 1% 6%
50%[ag] 45% 5%
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[C] Sep 24–27, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 49% 47%
RABA Research/WHO13 News Sep 23–26, 2020 780 (LV) ± 4% 46% 48% 2%[ah] 4%
Monmouth University Sep 18–22, 2020 402 (RV) ± 4.9% 50% 44% 2% 0% 1%[ai] 2%
402 (LV) 49%[ac] 46% 2% 2%[aj] 2%
49%[ad] 46% 2% 2%[aj] 2%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Sep 16–22, 2020 501 (LV) ± 4.99% 42% 45% 2% 0% 1%[y] 10%[z]
Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register Sep 14–17, 2020 658 (LV) ± 3.8% 47% 47% 4%[u] 3%
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP Aug 30 – Sep 5, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 45% 1%[ak] 6%
Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[B] Aug 30 – Sep 2, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 51%[q] 43% 3% 1% 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 983 (LV) 53% 46% 2%
Monmouth University Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020 401 (RV) ± 4.9% 48% 45% 3% <1%[al] 3%
401 (LV) 48%[ac] 46% 2% <1%[am] 3%
47%[ad] 47% 2% 0%[an] 3%
Data for Progress Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020 1,101 (LV) 44%[v] 42% 3% 1% 10%
46%[ag] 45% 9%
David Binder Research/Focus on Rural America Jul 30–31, 2020 200 (LV) 43% 49%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 1,095 (LV) 54% 45% 1%
RMG Research Jul 27–30, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.5% 41% 40% 7% 13%
Public Policy Polling/AFSCME[D] Jul 23–24, 2020 1,118 (V) 48% 47% 6%
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[E] Jul 11–16, 2020 701 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 48% 7%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 455 (LV) 50% 48% 2%
Selzer/Des Moines Register Jun 7–10, 2020 674 (LV) ± 3.8% 44% 43% 10%[ao] 3%
Civiqs/Daily Kos Jun 6–8, 2020 865 (RV) ± 3.8% 46% 46% 7%[ap] 1%
Public Policy Polling/Emily's List Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[F] Jun 3–4, 2020 963 (V) 48% 47% 5%
Public Policy Polling[1] Apr 30 – May 1, 2020 1,222 (V) ± 2.8% 48% 46% 6%
GBAO Strategies/PLUS Paid Family Leave Archived May 16, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Apr 13–16, 2020 500 (LV) 48% 45% 1% 6%
Selzer/Des Moines Register Mar 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 51% 41%
The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 44% 5%[aq] 6%
Public Policy Polling Dec 29–31, 2019 964 (V) 49% 46% 5%
Emerson College Archived December 13, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Dec 7–10, 2019 1,043 (RV) ± 3% 49% 45% 6%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 25–30, 2019 1,435 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 44% 3% 5%
Emerson College Oct 13–16, 2019 888 (RV) ± 3.2% 51% 49%
WPA Intelligence (R) Apr 27–30, 2019 200 (LV) ± 6.9% 49% 44% 5%
Emerson College Archived May 20, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 47% 53%
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 51%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Other Undecided
Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Mar 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 53%[ar] 34%
The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 39% 7%[as] 8%

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Cory
Booker (D)
Undecided
Emerson College Archived May 20, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 52% 48%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Other Undecided
The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 45% 44% 4%[at] 7%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 964 (V) 48% 47% 5%
Emerson College Archived December 13, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Dec 7–10, 2019 1,043 (RV) ± 3% 46% 45% 9%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 25–30, 2019 1,435 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 41% 3% 8%

Donald Trump vs. Kirsten Gillibrand

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kirsten
Gillibrand (D)
Undecided
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 54% 46%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Undecided
Emerson College Archived May 20, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 54% 46%
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 53% 47%

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Amy
Klobuchar (D)
Other Undecided
The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 41% 5%[aq] 8%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Beto
O'Rourke (D)
Undecided
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 53% 47%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Other Undecided
Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Mar 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 53% 41%
The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 42% 4%[au] 6%
Public Policy Polling Dec 29–31, 2019 964 (V) 49% 44% 7%
Emerson College Archived December 13, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Dec 7–10, 2019 1,043 (RV) ± 3% 50% 43% 7%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 25–30, 2019 1,435 (RV) ± 3.1% 47% 43% 3% 4%
Emerson College Oct 13–16, 2019 888 (RV) ± 3.2% 49% 51%
Emerson College Archived May 20, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 49% 51%
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 51% 50%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Other Undecided
Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Mar 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 52%[ar] 40%
The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 42% 5%[aq] 7%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 964 (V) 49% 44% 7%
Emerson College Archived December 13, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Dec 7–10, 2019 1,043 (RV) ± 3% 50% 43% ± 3% 7%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 25–30, 2019 1,435 (RV) ± 3.1% 47% 40% 2% 7%
Emerson College Oct 13–16, 2019 888 (RV) ± 3.2% 51% 49%
Emerson College Archived May 20, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 51% 49%
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 52% 48%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Sherrod Brown

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Sherrod
Brown (D)
Undecided
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 55% 46%

with Donald Trump and Nancy Pelosi

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Nancy
Pelosi (D)
Undecided
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 55% 45%

with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Howard
Schultz (I)
Undecided
Emerson College Archived May 20, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 47% 46% 8%

with Donald Trump, Elizabeth Warren, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Howard
Schultz (I)
Undecided
Emerson College Archived May 20, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 48% 45% 7%
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 40% 11%

with Donald Trump and generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Public Policy Polling/End Citizens United[G] Dec 13–15, 2019 944 (V) 47% 49% 3%
Public Policy Polling Apr 29–30, 2019 780 (V) ± 3.5% 48% 48%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Iowa[32]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
897,672 53.09% +1.94%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
759,061 44.89% +3.15%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
19,637 1.16% −2.62%
Independent Kanye West
Michelle Tidball
3,210 0.19% N/A
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker
3,075 0.18% −0.55%
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr
1,707 0.10% −0.24%
Alliance Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson
1,082 0.06% N/A
Genealogy Know Your Family History Ricki Sue King
Dayna Chandler
546 0.03% N/A
Independent Brock Pierce
Karla Ballard
544 0.03% N/A
Write-in 4,337 0.38% −1.09%
Total votes 1,690,871 100.00%

Results by county

County Donald Trump
Republican
Joe Biden
Democratic
Jo Jorgensen
Libertarian
Other votes Margin Total
votes
% # % # % # % # % #
Adair 69.83% 2,917 28.68% 1,198 0.84% 35 0.65% 27 41.15% 1,719 4,177
Adams 70.83% 1,530 27.31% 590 1.25% 27 0.60% 13 43.52% 940 2,160
Allamakee 63.80% 4,735 34.71% 2,576 0.96% 71 0.54% 40 29.09% 2,159 7,422
Appanoose 69.24% 4,512 29.02% 1,891 1.10% 72 0.63% 41 40.22% 2,621 6,516
Audubon 67.11% 2,295 31.32% 1,071 0.94% 32 0.64% 22 35.79% 1,224 3,420
Benton 62.75% 9,188 35.24% 5,160 1.27% 186 0.74% 108 27.51% 4,028 14,642
Black Hawk 44.51% 29,640 53.53% 35,647 1.08% 722 0.88% 584 −9.02% −6,007 66,593
Boone 56.68% 8,695 41.09% 6,303 1.29% 198 0.94% 144 15.59% 2,392 15,340
Bremer 57.02% 8,294 40.96% 5,958 1.27% 185 0.75% 109 16.06% 2,336 14,546
Buchanan 59.59% 6,420 38.70% 4,169 0.89% 96 0.83% 89 20.89% 2,251 10,774
Buena Vista 61.91% 5,056 36.26% 2,961 0.81% 66 1.03% 84 25.65% 2,095 8,167
Butler 68.44% 5,542 29.93% 2,424 0.84% 68 0.79% 64 38.51% 3,118 8,098
Calhoun 70.16% 3,689 27.96% 1,470 1.12% 59 0.76% 40 42.20% 2,219 5,258
Carroll 68.26% 7,737 30.47% 3,454 0.60% 68 0.67% 76 37.79% 4,283 11,335
Cass 68.29% 4,969 30.25% 2,201 0.84% 61 0.62% 45 38.04% 2,768 7,276
Cedar 57.56% 6,161 40.52% 4,337 1.16% 124 0.76% 81 17.04% 1,824 10,703
Cerro Gordo 52.28% 12,442 45.97% 10,941 0.82% 196 0.93% 222 6.31% 1,501 23,801
Cherokee 68.96% 4,495 29.70% 1,936 0.74% 48 0.60% 39 39.26% 2,559 6,518
Chickasaw 64.97% 4,308 33.68% 2,233 0.71% 47 0.65% 43 31.29% 2,075 6,631
Clarke 67.32% 3,144 31.39% 1,466 0.73% 34 0.56% 26 35.93% 1,678 4,670
Clay 68.42% 6,137 29.68% 2,662 1.13% 101 0.77% 69 38.74% 3,475 8,969
Clayton 63.64% 6,106 34.81% 3,340 0.85% 82 0.69% 66 28.83% 2,766 9,594
Clinton 54.13% 13,361 43.81% 10,812 1.27% 314 0.79% 194 10.32% 2,549 24,681
Crawford 67.85% 4,854 31.03% 2,220 0.59% 42 0.53% 38 36.82% 2,634 7,154
Dallas 49.96% 27,987 47.98% 26,879 1.33% 744 0.73% 412 1.98% 1,108 56,022
Davis 73.92% 3,032 24.70% 1,013 0.73% 30 0.66% 27 49.22% 2,019 4,102
Decatur 68.74% 2,615 29.44% 1,120 0.76% 29 1.05% 40 39.30% 1,495 3,804
Delaware 66.64% 6,666 31.56% 3,157 0.87% 87 0.93% 93 35.08% 3,509 10,003
Des Moines 53.08% 10,592 44.56% 8,893 1.38% 275 0.98% 196 8.52% 1,699 19,956
Dickinson 66.15% 7,438 32.56% 3,661 0.82% 92 0.47% 53 33.59% 3,777 11,244
Dubuque 50.47% 27,214 47.58% 25,657 1.03% 556 0.93% 499 2.89% 1,557 53,926
Emmet 67.28% 3,265 31.32% 1,520 0.74% 36 0.66% 32 35.96% 1,745 4,853
Fayette 60.33% 6,145 37.65% 3,835 1.00% 102 1.02% 104 22.68% 2,310 10,186
Floyd 58.91% 4,732 39.49% 3,172 0.78% 63 0.81% 65 19.42% 1,560 8,032
Franklin 66.71% 3,422 31.70% 1,626 0.88% 45 0.72% 37 35.01% 1,796 5,130
Fremont 70.29% 2,711 28.00% 1,080 0.96% 37 0.75% 29 42.29% 1,631 3,857
Greene 63.73% 3,223 34.98% 1,769 0.71% 36 0.57% 29 28.75% 1,454 5,057
Grundy 67.74% 4,929 30.32% 2,206 1.20% 87 0.74% 54 37.42% 2,723 7,276
Guthrie 67.05% 4,272 31.16% 1,985 1.24% 79 0.55% 35 35.89% 2,287 6,371
Hamilton 62.39% 4,956 35.79% 2,843 0.89% 71 0.92% 73 26.60% 2,113 7,943
Hancock 71.13% 4,390 27.27% 1,683 0.79% 49 0.81% 50 43.86% 2,707 6,172
Hardin 65.08% 5,850 33.11% 2,976 1.17% 105 0.65% 58 31.97% 2,874 8,989
Harrison 68.29% 5,569 29.92% 2,440 1.04% 85 0.75% 61 38.37% 3,129 8,155
Henry 65.19% 6,507 32.81% 3,275 1.28% 128 0.72% 72 32.38% 3,232 9,982
Howard 63.07% 3,127 35.74% 1,772 0.46% 23 0.73% 36 27.33% 1,355 4,958
Humboldt 71.69% 3,819 27.07% 1,442 0.73% 39 0.51% 27 44.62% 2,377 5,327
Ida 74.82% 2,880 23.82% 917 0.70% 27 0.65% 25 51.00% 1,963 3,849
Iowa 61.68% 6,009 36.41% 3,547 1.05% 102 0.87% 84 25.27% 2,462 9,742
Jackson 62.33% 6,940 36.18% 4,029 0.71% 79 0.78% 87 26.15% 2,911 11,135
Jasper 59.87% 12,084 38.33% 7,737 1.03% 207 0.77% 156 21.54% 4,347 20,184
Jefferson 49.59% 4,443 48.21% 4,319 1.06% 95 1.14% 102 1.38% 124 8,959
Johnson 27.34% 22,925 70.57% 59,177 1.15% 964 0.94% 785 −43.23% −36,252 83,851
Jones 59.81% 6,572 38.34% 4,213 1.07% 118 0.78% 86 21.47% 2,359 10,989
Keokuk 71.60% 3,797 26.66% 1,414 0.96% 51 0.77% 41 44.94% 2,383 5,303
Kossuth 69.03% 6,275 29.66% 2,696 0.67% 61 0.64% 58 39.37% 3,579 9,090
Lee 58.40% 9,773 39.09% 6,541 1.43% 240 1.08% 180 19.31% 3,232 16,734
Linn 41.87% 53,364 55.61% 70,874 1.58% 2,015 0.94% 1,205 −13.74% −17,510 127,458
Louisa 65.64% 3,500 32.37% 1,726 1.26% 67 0.73% 39 33.27% 1,774 5,332
Lucas 70.99% 3,287 27.73% 1,284 0.65% 30 0.63% 29 43.26% 2,003 4,630
Lyon 83.16% 5,707 15.55% 1,067 0.82% 56 0.48% 33 67.61% 4,640 6,863
Madison 66.24% 6,507 31.90% 3,134 1.26% 124 0.60% 59 34.34% 3,373 9,824
Mahaska 72.76% 8,297 25.38% 2,894 1.18% 134 0.69% 79 47.38% 5,403 11,404
Marion 65.84% 12,663 32.12% 6,178 1.21% 233 0.82% 158 33.72% 6,485 19,232
Marshall 52.77% 9,571 45.08% 8,176 1.19% 216 0.95% 173 7.69% 1,395 18,136
Mills 67.55% 5,585 30.33% 2,508 1.21% 100 0.90% 75 37.22% 3,077 8,268
Mitchell 63.16% 3,677 35.26% 2,053 0.96% 56 0.62% 36 27.90% 1,624 5,822
Monona 68.70% 3,248 29.76% 1,407 0.76% 36 0.79% 37 38.94% 1,841 4,728
Monroe 72.77% 2,975 26.37% 1,078 0.51% 21 0.34% 14 46.40% 1,897 4,088
Montgomery 68.69% 3,659 29.72% 1,583 0.94% 50 0.66% 35 38.97% 2,076 5,327
Muscatine 52.36% 10,823 45.34% 9,372 1.42% 293 0.89% 183 7.02% 1,451 20,671
O'Brien 77.62% 5,861 20.78% 1,569 1.02% 77 0.58% 44 56.84% 4,292 7,551
Osceola 80.83% 2,690 18.06% 601 0.54% 18 0.57% 19 62.77% 2,089 3,328
Page 70.66% 5,319 27.71% 2,086 1.01% 76 0.62% 47 42.95% 3,233 7,528
Palo Alto 67.97% 3,370 30.64% 1,519 0.87% 43 0.52% 26 37.33% 1,851 4,958
Plymouth 73.95% 10,492 24.63% 3,494 0.79% 112 0.63% 90 49.32% 6,998 14,188
Pocahontas 73.92% 2,826 24.40% 933 0.97% 37 0.71% 27 49.52% 1,893 3,823
Polk 41.27% 106,800 56.52% 146,250 1.28% 3,322 0.93% 2,383 −15.25% −39,450 258,755
Pottawattamie 57.38% 26,247 40.61% 18,575 1.21% 552 0.81% 370 16.77% 7,672 45,744
Poweshiek 55.79% 5,657 42.47% 4,306 0.89% 90 0.86% 87 13.32% 1,351 10,140
Ringgold 72.51% 1,968 26.12% 709 0.66% 18 0.70% 19 46.39% 1,259 2,714
Sac 73.37% 4,061 25.09% 1,389 0.85% 47 0.69% 38 48.28% 2,672 5,535
Scott 47.17% 43,683 50.68% 46,926 1.21% 1,124 0.94% 866 −3.51% −3,243 92,599
Shelby 69.12% 4,697 28.83% 1,959 1.22% 83 0.82% 56 40.29% 2,738 6,795
Sioux 82.31% 15,680 15.85% 3,019 0.89% 170 0.96% 182 66.46% 12,661 19,051
Story 39.85% 20,340 57.16% 29,175 1.81% 924 0.78% 599 −17.31% −8,835 51,038
Tama 58.61% 5,303 39.53% 3,577 0.96% 87 0.90% 81 19.08% 1,726 9,048
Taylor 75.81% 2,463 22.96% 746 0.52% 17 0.71% 23 52.85% 1,717 3,249
Union 64.83% 4,010 33.32% 2,061 0.99% 61 0.86% 53 31.51% 1,949 6,185
Van Buren 75.42% 2,859 23.08% 875 0.61% 23 0.90% 34 52.34% 1,984 3,791
Wapello 60.87% 9,516 37.24% 5,821 1.28% 200 0.61% 96 23.63% 3,695 15,633
Warren 57.29% 17,782 40.51% 12,574 1.39% 430 0.82% 253 16.78% 5,208 31,039
Washington 59.25% 6,971 38.77% 4,561 1.22% 144 0.76% 89 20.48% 2,410 11,765
Wayne 75.20% 2,338 23.38% 727 0.64% 20 0.77% 24 51.82% 1,611 3,109
Webster 61.37% 10,938 37.11% 6,613 0.72% 128 0.80% 143 24.26% 4,325 17,822
Winnebago 62.09% 3,707 35.76% 2,135 1.21% 72 0.94% 56 26.33% 1,572 5,970
Winneshiek 51.68% 6,235 46.56% 5,617 0.93% 112 0.83% 100 5.12% 618 12,064
Woodbury 57.63% 25,736 41.23% 18,704 0.96% 435 1.07% 487 16.40% 7,032 45,362
Worth 61.97% 2,738 36.12% 1,596 0.86% 38 1.04% 46 25.85% 1,142 4,418
Wright 66.13% 4,136 31.92% 1,996 1.12% 70 0.83% 52 34.21% 2,140 6,254

Results by congressional district

Trump won all 4 of the state's congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 50.79% 47.38% Abby Finkenauer
Ashley Hinson
2nd 51.10% 47.10% Dave Loebsack
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
3rd 49.15% 49.02% Cindy Axne
4th 62.68% 35.73% Steve King
Randy Feenstra

Analysis

Per exit polling by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Iowa came from White Iowans with no college degree, who comprised 62% of the electorate and supported Trump by 58%–40%. Trump also dominated amongst Christian voters, garnering 66% of Protestants, 54% of Catholics, and 76% of born-again/Evangelical Christians. 53% of voters believed Trump was better able to handle international trade.[33] Trump continued to win the cultural message among voters without college degrees in Iowa.[34]

During the primary season, there remained hope among Democrats that Iowa would still be a contestable state.[35] However, Trump's well-held victory in the state in the general election also saw Republican congressional candidates—from Senator Joni Ernst to two House seats, both held by Democrats (one vacated by Dave Loebsack in Iowa's 2nd district)—winning their election.

Neither Biden nor Trump flipped any counties in the state, although Biden came within 2% of flipping Dallas County, a suburb of Des Moines. Jefferson County was also very close, having gone for Trump by a similarly tight margin four years earlier.

Biden became the first Democratic nominee since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to win the presidency without carrying Iowa, the first since 1916 to win without carrying Wapello County, as well as the first since FDR in 1940 to win the presidency without carrying Dubuque County and Howard County.

Edison exit polls

2020 presidential election in Iowa by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[36][37]
Demographic subgroup Biden Trump % of

total vote

Total vote 44.89 53.09 100
Ideology
Liberals 90 9 20
Moderates 59 38 41
Conservatives 8 90 39
Party
Democrats 93 7 26
Republicans 7 93 36
Independents 50 46 38
Gender
Men 39 58 48
Women 51 48 52
Race/ethnicity
White 43 55 92
Black 76 22 2
Latino 67 31 4
Asian 1
Other 2
Age
18–24 years old 58 39 10
25–29 years old 39 55 5
30–39 years old 44 50 13
40–49 years old 50 48 14
50–64 years old 40 60 28
65 and older 45 54 28
Sexual orientation
LGBT 4
Not LGBT 44 55 96
Education
High school or less 37 63 19
Some college education 46 53 26
Associate's degree 39 59 17
Bachelor's degree 49 48 26
Postgraduate degree 58 39 13
Income
Under $30,000 58 41 15
$30,000–49,999 47 49 23
$50,000–99,999 39 60 35
$100,000–199,999 46 51 22
Over $200,000 5
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality 91 8 10
Coronavirus 88 10 19
Economy 10 87 36
Crime and safety 13 86 12
Health care 79 19 13
Region
Eastern Cities 54 44 27
East Central 42 56 19
Des Moines Area 54 44 24
Central 35 64 16
West 31 67 15
Area type
Urban 56 42 32
Suburban 48 51 29
Rural 35 63 39
Family's financial situation today
Better than four years ago 16 82 46
Worse than four years ago 87 10 13
About the same 60 38 41

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Final vote after votes for candidates below the 15% viability threshold in each precinct are reallocated to other viable candidates.
  2. ^ The official results included four decimal digits.
  3. ^ In Iowa, the presidential caucuses only are the first determining step for the delegate distribution, the final step are the decisions on the district conventions and the much later state convention. According to the provisions set by the Iowa Democratic Party's "Delegate Selection Plan", statewide delegates preliminarily awarded to other candidates had to be reallocated at the state convention on June 13, as their pledged candidates had dropped out, while the already early decided district delegates remain fixed.
  4. ^ Due to his withdrawal in March, 2 of the 5 statewide delegates mathematically won by Buttigieg were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.[12][13]
  5. ^ Due to his withdrawal in April, 3 of the 4 statewide delegates mathematically won by Sanders were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.[12][13]
  6. ^ Due to her withdrawal in March, all of the 3 statewide delegates mathematically won by Warren were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.[12][13]
  7. ^ 8 of the 12 statewide delegates initially awarded to Buttigieg (2), Sanders (3) and Warren (3), who had withdrawn in the meantime, were reallocated to Biden as the sole remaining viable contender and were added to his own 2 statewide delegates at the state convention on June 13.[12][13]
  8. ^ Michael Bloomberg officially announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination on November 24, 2019, but chose not to contest the first four nominating contests of the primary season, including the Iowa caucuses.[14]
  9. ^ Per the Iowa Democratic Party official report.[10]
  10. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  11. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  12. ^ a b c d e f "Someone else" with 2%
  13. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  14. ^ "Don't recall" with 2%
  15. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  16. ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  17. ^ a b c d With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  18. ^ "Refused" with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  19. ^ Includes "Do not remember"
  20. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  21. ^ a b c "Someone else" with 4%
  22. ^ a b c Standard VI response
  23. ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  24. ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  25. ^ a b "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  26. ^ a b c Includes "Refused"
  27. ^ No voters
  28. ^ "Another candidate" and "No one" with 1%
  29. ^ a b c With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  30. ^ a b c With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  31. ^ "Other third party" with 2%
  32. ^ "One of the other candidates" with 2%; West (B) with 1%
  33. ^ a b If the only candidates were Biden and Trump
  34. ^ "Other candidate" with 2%
  35. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%; "No one" with no voters
  36. ^ a b "Hawkins/Other" with 2%
  37. ^ Would not vote with 1%
  38. ^ "Other" and "No-one" with <1%
  39. ^ "Other" with <1%
  40. ^ "Other" with 0%
  41. ^ "Someone else" with 9%; would not vote with 1%
  42. ^ "Someone else" with 7%
  43. ^ a b c Other with 2%; would not vote with 3%
  44. ^ a b Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  45. ^ Other with 3%; would not vote with 4%
  46. ^ Other with 1%; would not vote with 3%
  47. ^ Other and would not vote with 2%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
  2. ^ a b The American Action Forum is a 501 organisation which usually supports Republican candidates
  3. ^ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  4. ^ AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  5. ^ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
  6. ^ Emily's List is an organisation that supports Democratic female candidates
  7. ^ End Citizens United PAC has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates

References

  1. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne. "Joe Biden, Mike Pence to campaign in Iowa this week, underscoring competitive presidential race". Des Moines Register. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  4. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (August 25, 2018). "Countdown begins to 2020: Date of Iowa Democratic caucuses set for Feb. 3". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  5. ^ "Live Results:Iowa Republican Caucuses". The New York Times. February 3, 2020. Retrieved February 3, 2020.
  6. ^ "Iowa Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 12, 2020.
  7. ^ "2020 Iowa Republican caucuses results". The Washington Post. Retrieved March 12, 2022.
  8. ^ "Iowa caucus results: Buttigieg, Sanders in a near tie, with 100% of results published". USA TODAY. February 6, 2020. Retrieved February 7, 2020.
  9. ^ Lee, Jasmine C.; Lieberman, Rebecca; Aufrichtig, Aliza; Bloch, Matthew (February 4, 2020). "Live: Iowa Caucus Results 2020". The New York Times. Retrieved February 27, 2020.
  10. ^ a b "Iowa democratic Caucus Results". Des Moines Register. Retrieved July 15, 2021.
  11. ^ Levy, Adam; Merica, Dan (March 1, 2020). "Iowa Democratic Party certifies Buttigieg's Iowa lead amid Sanders challenge". CNN. Retrieved March 1, 2020.
  12. ^ a b c d e "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Iowa Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved July 4, 2020.
  13. ^ a b c d "Iowa Democratic Party Announces Delegation to National Convention". iowademocrats.org. June 13, 2020. Retrieved August 20, 2020.
  14. ^ Gonyea, Don (February 14, 2020). "Mike Bloomberg Storms Super Tuesday States, Pledging To 'Get It Done'". NPR. Retrieved December 12, 2021.
  15. ^ Howe, Joseph (February 8, 2020). "Libertarian Party Of Iowa Presidential Caucus Winner And Results". Libertarian Party of Iowa. Retrieved February 8, 2020.
  16. ^ "Libertarian's announce caucus results". Knoxville Journal Express. February 10, 2020. Retrieved February 18, 2020.
  17. ^ McDaniel, Tiffany (February 10, 2020). "Low voter turnout at the Iowa Libertarian Party Caucus". The Oskaloosa Herald. Retrieved February 18, 2020.
  18. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  19. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  20. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 2, 2020.
  21. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  22. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  23. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  24. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  25. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  26. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  27. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  28. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  29. ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  30. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  31. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  32. ^ "Election Canvass Summary" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved November 30, 2020.
  33. ^ "Iowa Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  34. ^ "Down on the farm with Trump". Bleeding Heartland. April 16, 2020. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  35. ^ Alberta, Tim (February 3, 2020). "Whoever Wins Iowa, They Won't Be Back". POLITICO. Retrieved January 4, 2021.
  36. ^ "Iowa 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved December 28, 2020.
  37. ^ "Iowa Exit Polls: How Different Groups Voted". www.nytimes.com. Retrieved December 28, 2020.

Further reading