2004 United States presidential election in Iowa

← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 7 0
Popular vote 751,957 741,898
Percentage 49.90% 49.23%

County Results

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Iowa took place on November 2, 2004, as part of the 2004 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Voters chose seven electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Republican President George W. Bush and his running mate, Vice President Dick Cheney, against Democratic challenger and Senator from Massachusetts John F. Kerry and his running mate, Senator from North Carolina John Edwards. Six third parties were also on the ballot.

Iowa was won by President George W. Bush by a 0.67% margin of victory, or 10,059 votes, despite losing the state to Al Gore four years earlier. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a swing state. The Democrats had won Iowa in the previous four presidential elections, though only narrowly in 2000. Gore had won the state by only 0.32 percentage points, or 4,144 votes, a much weaker margin compared to the prior three elections. In 1988, Democrat Michael Dukakis won the state by 10.21% even in an otherwise Republican landslide year, and Bill Clinton carried the state by 6.02% in 1992 and 10.34% in 1996. Iowa was one of just two states, along with New Mexico, to vote for Gore in 2000 but flip to Bush in 2004, although it was won both times by narrow margins. Iowa was one of two states to be won by George W. Bush in at least one of his presidential runs that his father George H. W. Bush never carried, the other being West Virginia.

Bush became the first Republican to win Iowa since Ronald Reagan had done so in 1984. As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last time a Republican won Iowa by only a plurality. Until 2020, this was the last time Iowa did not vote for the same candidate as neighboring Wisconsin. This election marked a new streak of Iowa voting for the winning ticket in every election along with Florida and Ohio until 2020, when all three voted for the losing candidate. With Iowa, Florida, and Ohio's winning streaks no longer being intact, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are now all tied for the longest streaks of siding with the winner, all three of which most recently failing to do so when they backed Kerry during his losing presidential bid in 2004.

Bush is also the only US president to win the White House without Iowa and then carry it upon winning re-election. This is the opposite of Woodrow Wilson and FDR, as they are the only two presidents to have carried Iowa upon winning office but lose it upon re-election.

Caucuses

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report Lean D
Associated Press Toss-up
CNN Likely R (flip)
Cook Political Report Toss-up
Newsweek Lean R (flip)
New York Times Lean R (flip)
Rasmussen Reports Toss-up
Research 2000 Lean D
Washington Post Toss-up
Washington Times Toss-up
Zogby International Likely D
Washington Dispatch Likely D

Polling

Polls showed the state was a pure tossup with neither candidate reaching a consistent lead. The last three polls averaged both candidates at 48%, with the last-second deciders the key to victory.[2] The final RealClearPolitics average gave Bush leading with a margin of 0.3%, with 47.4% to Kerry at 47.1% and Nader at 1.0%.[3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $671,335.[4] Kerry raised $449,980.[5]

Advertising and visits

The Kerry campaign visited the state 11 times to Bush's 10 times.[6] Both campaigns spent between $400,000 to $600,000 each week in television advertising.[7]

Analysis

Kerry's strength in the state lay in the highly-populated counties of Polk (Des Moines), Linn (Cedar Rapids), Scott (Davenport), Johnson (Iowa City), and Black Hawk (Waterloo). Johnson County, home to the University of Iowa, gave Kerry 64.01% of its vote, Kerry's best performance in the state. However, Kerry also did well in a series of rural and small-town counties in northeastern Iowa and along the Mississippi River, many of which had been traditionally Democratic since at least the 1980's.[8] He won eight of the ten counties along the Mississippi River, including Dubuque County, which had given Gore his margin in the state in 2000. The 1st and 2nd congressional districts were both carried by Kerry, despite being represented by Republicans in Congress.[9] Dubuque is located within the 1st district while the 2nd district contains Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, and Muscatine.[10]

However, Bush performed respectably even in areas of Democratic strength; in only two counties did he obtain less than 40% of the vote. Additionally, he was able to offset Kerry's strength in the population centers and in the northeast and Mississippi River counties with landslide margins in a series of rural counties in the west of the state, as well as by dominating the state's south. Bush's best performance in the state was in Sioux County, where he won with 85.87% of the vote. His raw vote margin in Sioux County of 11,970 votes alone was greater than his raw vote margin over Kerry statewide.[11] Bush won three congressional districts in the state: the 3rd district, home to the Democratic city of Des Moines and its Republican suburbs, gave Bush a razor thin 50-50 margin, despite re-electing Democrat Leonard Boswell to Congress. The 4th district also gave Bush a narrow margin, giving him 51% of the vote. The now obsolete 5th district in the western part of the state was home to Iowa's most Republican areas, having elected Steve King to Congress in 2002; it gave Bush a landslide 21-point margin.

In terms of counties carried, both candidates flipped counties. Bush flipped four that voted for Gore in 2000, while Kerry flipped five that voted for Bush in 2000.[12] This election coincided with the 2004 United States Senate election in Iowa, where Republican Chuck Grassley was effortlessly re-elected with 70.83% of the vote.[13]

Iowa would return to the Democratic column in the next two elections, voting for Barack Obama by 9.54% in 2008 and 5.81% in 2012. However, in 2016, it returned to the Republican column when Donald Trump would win the state by 9.41%, the largest margin of victory for a Republican presidential nominee in the state since Ronald Reagan's in 1980.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Iowa
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush Richard Cheney 751,957 49.90% 7
Democratic John Kerry John Edwards 741,898 49.23% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Peter Camejo 5,973 0.40% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 2,992 0.20% 0
Constitution Michael Peroutka Chuck Baldwin 1,304 0.09% 0
Green David Cobb Pat LaMarche 1,141 0.08% 0
N/A Write-ins 1,094 0.07% 0
Socialist Workers Róger Calero Margaret Trowe 373 0.02% 0
Socialist Equality Bill Van Auken Jim Lawrence 176 0.01% 0
Totals 1,506,908 100% 7
Voter Turnout (Voting age/Registered) 67%/76%

By county

County George W. Bush
Republican
John Kerry
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adair 2,402 56.15% 1,844 43.10% 32 0.75% 558 13.05% 4,278
Adams 1,317 56.65% 977 42.02% 31 1.33% 340 14.63% 2,325
Allamakee 3,530 49.99% 3,449 48.84% 83 1.18% 81 1.15% 7,062
Appanoose 3,340 51.78% 3,063 47.49% 47 0.73% 277 4.29% 6,450
Audubon 1,958 54.51% 1,608 44.77% 26 0.73% 350 9.74% 3,592
Benton 6,658 49.31% 6,747 49.97% 96 0.72% -89 -0.66% 13,501
Black Hawk 28,046 43.89% 35,392 55.38% 469 0.73% -7,346 -11.49% 63,907
Boone 6,870 49.04% 7,027 50.16% 112 0.80% -157 -1.12% 14,009
Bremer 6,665 52.16% 6,025 47.15% 89 0.70% 640 5.01% 12,779
Buchanan 4,797 45.79% 5,608 43.10% 70 0.67% -811 -7.75% 10,475
Buena Vista 4,887 57.56% 3,520 41.46% 83 0.98% 1,367 16.10% 8,490
Butler 4,417 59.09% 3,001 40.15% 57 0.76% 1,416 18.94% 7,475
Calhoun 3,255 58.73% 2,243 40.47% 44 0.80% 1,012 18.26% 5,542
Carroll 5,762 54.75% 4,689 44.56% 73 0.69% 1,073 10.19% 10,524
Cass 4,796 63.58% 2,679 35.52% 68 0.90% 2,117 28.06% 7,543
Cedar 4,869 50.23% 4,747 48.97% 78 0.80% 122 1.26% 9,694
Cerro Gordo 10,960 44.71% 13,372 54.54% 184 0.75% -2,412 -9.83% 24,516
Cherokee 3,758 55.30% 2,988 43.97% 50 0.73% 770 11.33% 6,796
Chickasaw 3,040 44.67% 3,708 54.48% 58 0.86% -668 -9.81% 6,806
Clarke 2,200 48.18% 2,323 50.88% 43 0.94% -123 -2.70% 4,566
Clay 4,898 57.03% 3,547 41.30% 143 1.67% 1,351 15.73% 8,588
Clayton 4,312 47.03% 4,736 51.66% 120 1.31% -424 -4.63% 9,168
Clinton 10,666 43.21% 13,813 55.96% 205 0.83% -3,147 -12.75% 24,684
Crawford 3,955 54.61% 3,220 44.46% 67 0.92% 735 10.15% 7,242
Dallas 15,183 57.75% 10,917 41.52% 193 0.74% 4,266 16.23% 26,293
Davis 2,148 54.82% 1,731 44.18% 39 1.00% 417 10.64% 3,918
Decatur 2,088 52.06% 1,859 46.35% 64 1.59% 229 5.71% 4,011
Delaware 4,908 53.35% 4,227 45.95% 65 0.71% 681 7.40% 9,200
Des Moines 8,221 39.38% 12,456 59.67% 197 0.94% -4,235 -20.29% 20,874
Dickinson 5,337 55.87% 4,140 43.34% 76 0.80% 1,197 12.53% 9,553
Dubuque 20,100 42.73% 26,561 56.46% 382 0.81% -6,461 -13.73% 47,043
Emmet 2,697 52.31% 2,405 46.64% 54 1.04% 292 5.67% 5,156
Fayette 5,128 49.35% 5,185 49.89% 79 0.76% -57 -0.54% 10,392
Floyd 3,745 45.86% 4,349 53.25% 73 0.89% -604 -7.39% 8,167
Franklin 3,128 56.66% 2,340 42.38% 53 0.96% 788 14.28% 5,521
Fremont 2,362 60.39% 1,510 38.61% 39 1.00% 852 21.78% 3,911
Greene 2,618 51.20% 2,459 48.09% 36 0.70% 159 3.11% 5,113
Grundy 4,429 64.67% 2,386 34.84% 34 0.50% 2,043 29.83% 6,849
Guthrie 3,325 55.47% 2,614 43.61% 55 0.92% 711 11.86% 5,994
Hamilton 4,367 52.39% 3,895 46.73% 73 0.88% 472 5.66% 8,335
Hancock 3,368 57.04% 2,484 42.07% 53 0.89% 884 14.97% 5,905
Hardin 4,875 54.48% 4,015 44.87% 59 0.66% 860 9.61% 8,949
Harrison 4,680 60.94% 2,906 37.84% 94 1.23% 1,774 23.10% 7,680
Henry 5,220 55.20% 4,127 43.64% 110 1.16% 1,093 11.56% 9,457
Howard 2,028 43.18% 2,614 55.65% 55 1.17% -586 -12.47% 4,697
Humboldt 3,162 59.10% 2,146 40.11% 42 0.79% 1,016 18.99% 5,350
Ida 2,342 62.06% 1,415 37.49% 17 0.45% 927 24.57% 3,774
Iowa 4,544 53.75% 3,841 45.43% 69 0.82% 703 8.32% 8,454
Jackson 4,242 42.37% 5,656 56.50% 113 1.13% -1,414 -14.13% 10,011
Jasper 9,462 47.16% 10,430 51.99% 170 0.84% -968 -4.83% 20,062
Jefferson 3,648 44.05% 4,490 54.22% 143 1.73% -842 -10.17% 8,281
Johnson 22,715 34.75% 41,847 64.01% 811 1.24% -19,132 -29.26% 65,373
Jones 4,834 48.45% 5,054 50.65% 90 0.90% -220 -2.20% 9,978
Keokuk 3,119 56.92% 2,294 41.86% 67 1.22% 825 15.06% 5,480
Kossuth 5,042 54.46% 4,132 44.63% 84 0.91% 910 9.83% 9,258
Lee 7,472 41.84% 10,152 56.85% 234 1.32% -2,680 -15.01% 17,858
Linn 49,442 44.65% 60,442 54.58% 856 0.77% -11,000 -9.93% 110,740
Louisa 2,572 52.32% 2,297 46.72% 47 0.96% 275 5.60% 4,916
Lucas 2,543 55.63% 1,987 43.47% 41 0.90% 556 12.16% 4,571
Lyon 4,751 77.87% 1,303 21.36% 47 0.77% 3,448 56.51% 6,101
Madison 4,538 56.70% 3,380 42.23% 86 1.07% 1,158 14.47% 8,004
Mahaska 6,858 63.93% 3,790 35.33% 80 0.74% 3,068 28.60% 10,728
Marion 9,990 59.83% 6,574 39.37% 132 0.79% 3,416 20.46% 16,696
Marshall 9,557 49.87% 9,443 49.27% 164 0.85% 114 0.60% 19,164
Mills 4,556 65.65% 2,308 33.26% 76 1.10% 2,248 32.39% 6,940
Mitchell 2,646 48.28% 2,785 50.82% 49 0.90% -139 -2.54% 5,480
Monona 2,575 51.32% 2,397 47.77% 46 0.92% 178 3.55% 5,018
Monroe 2,067 52.16% 1,855 46.81% 41 1.03% 212 5.35% 3,963
Montgomery 3,601 64.81% 1,899 34.18% 56 1.01% 1,702 30.63% 5,556
Muscatine 9,020 48.19% 9,542 50.98% 155 0.83% -522 -2.79% 18,717
O'Brien 5,328 68.92% 2,330 30.14% 73 0.95% 2,998 38.78% 7,731
Osceola 2,295 70.27% 934 28.60% 37 1.14% 1,361 41.67% 3,266
Page 5,243 69.79% 2,211 29.43% 59 0.78% 3,032 40.36% 7,513
Palo Alto 2,674 51.51% 2,482 47.81% 35 0.68% 192 3.70% 5,191
Plymouth 7,810 63.90% 4,278 35.00% 134 1.09% 3,532 28.90% 12,222
Pocahontas 2,441 56.60% 1,822 42.24% 50 1.16% 619 14.36% 4,313
Polk 95,828 47.29% 105,218 51.93% 1,572 0.77% -9,390 -4.64% 202,618
Pottawattamie 24,558 58.72% 16,906 40.43% 356 0.85% 7,652 18.29% 41,820
Poweshiek 4,965 49.20% 5,043 49.98% 83 0.83% -78 -0.78% 10,091
Ringgold 1,466 52.77% 1,286 46.29% 26 0.93% 180 6.48% 2,778
Sac 3,128 58.21% 2,215 41.22% 31 0.57% 913 16.99% 5,374
Scott 39,958 48.30% 42,122 50.92% 642 0.77% -2,164 -2.62% 82,722
Shelby 4,256 63.81% 2,355 35.31% 59 0.88% 1,901 28.50% 6,670
Sioux 14,229 85.87% 2,259 13.63% 82 0.49% 11,970 72.24% 16,570
Story 20,819 46.63% 23,296 52.17% 537 1.20% -2,477 -5.54% 44,652
Tama 4,456 49.51% 4,487 49.85% 58 0.65% -31 -0.34% 9,001
Taylor 1,908 59.81% 1,252 39.25% 30 0.93% 656 20.56% 3,190
Union 3,165 52.94% 2,747 45.95% 66 1.10% 418 6.99% 5,978
Van Buren 2,211 57.64% 1,568 40.88% 57 1.48% 643 16.76% 3,836
Wapello 7,403 44.31% 9,125 54.62% 179 1.07% -1,722 -10.31% 16,707
Warren 12,160 52.75% 10,730 46.54% 163 0.70% 1,430 6.21% 23,053
Washington 5,977 55.92% 4,595 42.99% 116 1.08% 1,382 12.93% 10,688
Wayne 1,733 55.31% 1,379 44.02% 21 0.67% 354 11.29% 3,133
Webster 8,959 48.09% 9,561 51.32% 111 0.60% -602 -3.23% 18,631
Winnebago 3,175 53.34% 2,707 45.48% 70 1.17% 468 7.86% 5,952
Winneshiek 5,324 49.37% 5,354 49.65% 106 0.98% -30 -0.28% 10,784
Woodbury 22,451 50.80% 21,455 48.55% 289 0.66% 996 2.25% 44,195
Worth 1,795 43.54% 2,286 55.45% 42 1.01% -491 -11.91% 4,123
Wright 3,631 54.99% 2,930 44.37% 42 0.63% 701 10.62% 6,603
Totals 751,957 49.90% 741,898 49.23% 13,053 0.87% 10,059 0.67% 1,506,908
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Bush won 3 of 5 congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat. Kerry won two held by Republicans.[14]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 46% 53% Jim Nussle
2nd 44% 55% Jim Leach
3rd 50% 50% Leonard Boswell
4th 51% 48% Tom Latham
5th 60% 39% Steve King

Electors

Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Iowa voters cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Iowa has 7 electors because it has 5 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 7 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 7 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from Iowa. All were pledged to and voted for Bush and Cheney.[15]

  1. Julie Hosch
  2. Velma Huebner
  3. Don Racheter
  4. Marilyn Bose
  5. Don Kass
  6. Dorothy Schlitter
  7. Wanda Sears

See also

References

  1. ^ DC Political report. 2004[permanent dead link]
  2. ^ "2004 Presidential Election Polls. Iowa Polls". US Election Atlas.
  3. ^ "RealClear Politics - Polls".
  4. ^ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President".
  5. ^ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President".
  6. ^ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  7. ^ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  8. ^ Lounsbury, Jud (December 16, 2016). "Pssst...Trump: You Won By Running to Clinton's Left". Progressive.org. Retrieved November 30, 2020.
  9. ^ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project". Retrieved November 22, 2020.
  10. ^ Lewis, Jeffrey B.; DeVine, Brandon; Martis, Kenneth C.; Pritcher, Lincoln (2013). "Digital Boundary Definitions of United States Congressional Districts, 1789-2012". University of California at Los Angeles. Retrieved November 22, 2020.
  11. ^ "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
  12. ^ "2000 Presidential General Election Results - Iowa". Dave Leip's Election Atlas. Retrieved November 22, 2020.
  13. ^ "Iowa Election 2004 Results, News and Polls for the Senate race. View the latest election results, news and polls. Conservative election commentary". Townhall. Retrieved November 22, 2020.
  14. ^ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project". Retrieved November 22, 2020.
  15. ^ "The Electoral College". May 20, 2019.