2004 United States presidential election in Florida

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TurnoutIncrease74%
 
George-W-Bush.jpeg
John F. Kerry.jpg
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 27 0
Popular vote 3,964,522 3,583,544
Percentage 52.10% 47.09%

Florida Presidential Election Results 2004.svg
County Results

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

[1]

The 2004 United States presidential election in Florida took place on November 2, 2004, as part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 27 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Florida was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 5.01% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a swing state that was leaning towards Bush. Once again, Florida was under the national spotlight due to its high number of electoral votes and the fresh memory of the controversy surrounding the 2000 Florida vote. Turnout was much higher, going from an estimated 6 million voters in 2000 to over 7.5 million voters showing up to vote in 2004.[2] This remains the last time that any candidate won Florida by a greater than 5% margin and the last time a Republican won a majority of the state's popular vote until 2020.

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[3]

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report Lean R
Associated Press Toss-up
CNN Solid R
Cook Political Report Toss-up
Newsweek Toss-up
New York Times Toss-up
Rasmussen Reports Toss-up
Research 2000 Toss-up
Washington Post Toss-up
Washington Times Toss-up
Zogby International Toss-up
Washington Dispatch Solid R

Polling

Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2004: Florida

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Kerry (D)
George W.
Bush (R)
Ralph
Nader (I)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac October 27–31, 2004 1,098 ± 3.3 43% 51% 1% 0% 4%
Quinnipiac October 22–26, 2004 944 ± 3.2 46% 49% 1% 0% 4%
Quinnipiac October 15–19, 2004 808 ± 3.5 47% 48% 1% 0% 4%
Quinnipiac October 1–5, 2004 717 ± 3.7 44% 51% 0% 0% 5%
Quinnipiac September 18–21, 2004 819 ± 3.4 41% 49% 5% 0% 5%
Quinnipiac August 5–10, 2004 1,094 ± 3.0 47% 41% 4% 0% 7%
Quinnipiac June 23–27, 2004 1,209 ± 2.8 43% 43% 5% 1% 9%

Throughout the general election, candidates exchanged narrow leads in the state. The final 3 poll averaged showed Bush leading with 49% to Kerry's 47%.[4]

Fundraising

Bush raised $16,956,510.[5] Kerry raised $7,285,151.[6]

Advertising and visits

This state was heavily targeted as a swing state. Over the course of the election, Bush visited the state 15 times to Kerry's 18 times. Also, both candidates spent heavily on television advertisements, spending an estimated $3 million each week.[7]

Analysis

Main article: 2004 United States election voting controversies

During the 2004 U.S. presidential election, numerous allegations of irregularities were made concerning the voting process in Florida. These allegations included missing and uncounted votes, machine malfunction, and a lack of correlation between the vote count and exit polling.

In the prior election, Ralph Nader obtained over 2% of the vote, thus Bush won with less than 50% of the vote, making his approval rating and his brother's approval ratings the deciding factor of the state. Polls throughout the campaign indicated that Florida was too close to call, prompting concerns about a repeat of the 2000 fiasco. However, the high popularity of George W. Bush's brother, Republican Governor Jeb Bush, contributed to a relatively comfortable victory for Bush, by a margin of 5% over his Democratic rival, John Kerry.

While the South Florida metropolitan area mostly voted for Kerry, the other parts of the state mainly supported Bush, being culturally closer to the rest of the southern United States than to Miami, home to large Hispanic and Jewish populations, as well as retirees and transplants from the largely liberal Northeastern United States.

Key to Bush's victory was increased turnout in Republican areas. Bush's margin of victory in several counties topped 70%, particularly in the Florida Panhandle. Bush also won a significant number of heavily populated and fast-growing areas including Jacksonville, the entire Tampa Bay area, Southwest Florida, Orlando, the Space Coast, and Ocala.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last election in which Hillsborough County and Osceola County voted for the Republican candidate. This is also the last time that the cities of Orlando, Tampa, and Kissimmee have voted Republican in a presidential election.

Results

United States presidential election in Florida, 2004
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush (Inc.) Dick Cheney 3,964,522 52.1% 27
Democratic John Kerry John Edwards 3,583,544 47.1% 0
Reform Ralph Nader Peter Camejo 32,971 0.4% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 11,996 0.2% 0
Constitution Michael Peroutka Chuck Baldwin 6,626 0.1% 0
Green David Cobb Patricia LaMarche 3,917 0.1% 0
Socialist Walt Brown Mary Alice Herbert 3,502 0.1% 0
Socialist Workers Roger Calero Margaret Trowe 2,732 0.0% 0
Totals 7,609,810 100.00% 27
Voter turnout (Voting Age) 74.0%

By county

County George Walker Bush
Republican
John Forbes Kerry
Democratic
Various candidates
Write-ins
Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Alachua 47,762 42.90% 62,504 56.14% 1,062 0.95% -14,742 -13.24% 111,328
Baker 7,738 77.73% 2,180 21.90% 37 0.37% 5,558 55.83% 9,955
Bay 53,404 71.18% 21,068 28.08% 552 0.74% 32,336 43.10% 75,024
Bradford 7,557 69.62% 3,244 29.88% 54 0.50% 4,313 39.73% 10,855
Brevard 153,068 57.66% 110,309 41.55% 2,085 0.79% 42,759 16.11% 265,462
Broward 244,674 34.61% 453,873 64.21% 8,325 1.18% -209,199 -29.60% 706,872
Calhoun 3,782 63.42% 2,116 35.49% 65 1.09% 1,666 27.94% 5,963
Charlotte 44,428 55.68% 34,256 42.93% 1,102 1.38% 10,172 12.75% 79,786
Citrus 39,500 56.86% 29,277 42.15% 690 0.99% 10,223 14.72% 69,467
Clay 62,078 76.17% 18,971 23.28% 446 0.55% 43,107 52.90% 81,495
Collier 83,631 64.99% 43,892 34.11% 1,160 0.90% 39,739 30.88% 128,683
Columbia 16,758 67.06% 8,031 32.14% 202 0.81% 8,727 34.92% 24,991
DeSoto 5,524 58.09% 3,913 41.15% 73 0.77% 1,611 16.94% 9,510
Dixie 4,434 68.83% 1,960 30.43% 48 0.75% 2,474 38.40% 6,442
Duval 220,190 57.78% 158,610 41.62% 2,261 0.59% 61,580 16.16% 381,061
Escambia 93,566 65.30% 48,329 33.73% 1,383 0.97% 45,237 31.57% 143,278
Flagler 19,633 51.02% 18,578 48.28% 269 0.70% 1,055 2.74% 38,480
Franklin 3,472 58.54% 2,401 40.48% 58 0.98% 1,071 18.06% 5,931
Gadsden 6,253 29.80% 14,629 69.72% 102 0.49% -8,376 -39.92% 20,984
Gilchrist 4,936 70.36% 2,017 28.75% 62 0.88% 2,919 41.61% 7,015
Glades 2,443 58.33% 1,718 41.02% 27 0.64% 725 17.31% 4,188
Gulf 4,805 66.03% 2,407 33.08% 65 0.89% 2,398 32.95% 7,277
Hamilton 2,792 54.97% 2,260 44.50% 27 0.53% 532 10.47% 5,079
Hardee 5,049 69.65% 2,149 29.65% 51 0.70% 2,900 40.01% 7,249
Hendry 5,757 58.90% 3,960 40.51% 58 0.59% 1,797 18.38% 9,775
Hernando 42,635 52.93% 37,187 46.17% 725 0.90% 5,448 6.76% 80,547
Highlands 25,878 62.36% 15,347 36.98% 271 0.65% 10,531 25.38% 41,496
Hillsborough 245,576 53.01% 214,132 46.23% 3,514 0.76% 31,444 6.79% 463,222
Holmes 6,412 77.25% 1,810 21.81% 78 0.94% 4,602 55.45% 8,300
Indian River 36,938 60.15% 23,956 39.01% 520 0.85% 12,982 21.14% 61,414
Jackson 12,122 61.20% 7,555 38.14% 130 0.66% 4,567 23.06% 19,807
Jefferson 3,298 44.10% 4,135 55.30% 45 0.60% -837 -11.19% 7,478
Lafayette 2,460 73.98% 845 25.41% 20 0.60% 1,615 48.57% 3,325
Lake 74,389 60.02% 48,221 38.90% 1,340 1.08% 26,168 21.11% 123,950
Lee 144,176 59.91% 93,860 39.00% 2,631 1.09% 50,316 20.91% 240,667
Leon 51,615 37.85% 83,873 61.50% 891 0.65% -32,258 -23.65% 136,379
Levy 10,410 62.52% 6,074 36.48% 168 1.01% 4,336 26.04% 16,652
Liberty 1,927 63.79% 1,070 35.42% 24 0.79% 857 28.37% 3,021
Madison 4,191 50.47% 4,050 48.77% 63 0.76% 141 1.70% 8,304
Manatee 81,318 56.62% 61,262 42.66% 1,041 0.72% 20,056 13.96% 143,621
Marion 81,283 58.19% 57,271 41.00% 1,123 0.80% 24,012 17.19% 139,677
Martin 41,362 57.09% 30,208 41.69% 883 1.22% 11,154 15.39% 72,453
Miami-Dade 361,095 46.61% 409,732 52.89% 3,899 0.50% -48,637 -6.28% 774,726
Monroe 19,467 49.24% 19,654 49.71% 414 1.05% -187 -0.47% 39,535
Nassau 23,783 72.64% 8,573 26.18% 387 1.18% 15,210 46.45% 32,743
Okaloosa 69,693 77.65% 19,368 21.58% 695 0.77% 50,325 56.07% 89,756
Okeechobee 6,978 57.24% 5,153 42.27% 59 0.48% 1,825 14.97% 12,190
Orange 192,539 49.62% 193,354 49.83% 2,151 0.55% -815 -0.21% 388,044
Osceola 43,117 52.45% 38,633 47.00% 454 0.55% 4,484 5.45% 82,204
Palm Beach 212,688 39.05% 328,687 60.35% 3,247 0.60% -115,999 -21.30% 544,622
Pasco 103,230 54.07% 84,749 44.39% 2,937 1.54% 18,481 9.68% 190,916
Pinellas 225,686 49.56% 225,460 49.51% 4,211 0.92% 226 0.05% 455,357
Polk 123,559 58.61% 86,009 40.80% 1,262 0.60% 37,550 17.81% 210,830
Putnam 18,311 59.12% 12,412 40.07% 250 0.81% 5,899 19.05% 30,973
St. Johns 59,196 68.60% 26,399 30.59% 695 0.81% 32,797 38.01% 86,290
St. Lucie 47,592 47.56% 51,835 51.80% 636 0.64% -4,243 -4.24% 100,063
Santa Rosa 52,059 77.35% 14,659 21.78% 589 0.88% 37,400 55.57% 67,307
Sarasota 104,692 53.51% 88,442 45.20% 2,518 1.29% 16,250 8.31% 195,652
Seminole 108,172 58.10% 76,971 41.34% 1,052 0.56% 31,201 16.76% 186,195
Sumter 19,800 62.18% 11,584 36.38% 458 1.44% 8,216 25.80% 31,842
Suwannee 11,153 70.58% 4,522 28.62% 127 0.80% 6,631 41.96% 15,802
Taylor 5,467 63.71% 3,049 35.53% 65 0.76% 2,418 28.18% 8,581
Union 3,396 72.64% 1,251 26.76% 28 0.60% 2,145 45.88% 4,675
Volusia 111,924 48.89% 115,519 50.46% 1,496 0.65% -3,595 -1.57% 228,939
Wakulla 6,777 57.61% 4,896 41.62% 90 0.77% 1,881 15.99% 11,763
Walton 17,555 73.22% 6,213 25.91% 208 0.87% 11,342 47.31% 23,976
Washington 7,369 71.09% 2,912 28.09% 85 0.82% 4,457 43.00% 10,281
Totals 3,964,522 52.10% 3,583,544 47.09% 61,744 0.81% 380,978 5.01% 7,609,810

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Bush won 18 of 25 congressional districts. Kerry won 7 districts, including one held by a Republican. [8]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 72% 28% Jeff Miller
2nd 54% 46% Allen Boyd
3rd 35% 65% Corrine Brown
4th 69% 31% Ander Crenshaw
5th 58% 41% Ginny Brown-Waite
6th 61% 39% Cliff Stearns
7th 57% 43% John Mica
8th 55% 44% Ric Keller
9th 57% 43% Michael Bilirakis
10th 51% 49% Bill Young
11th 41% 58% Jim Davis
12th 58% 42% Adam Putnam
13th 56% 44% Katherine Harris
Porter Goss
14th 62% 38% Connie Mack IV
15th 57% 43% Dave Weldon
16th 54% 46% Mark Foley
17th 17% 83% Kendrick Meek
18th 54% 46% Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
19th 34% 66% Robert Wexler
Peter Deutsch
20th 36% 64% Debbie Wasserman Schultz
21st 57% 43% Lincoln Diaz-Balart
22nd 48% 52% E. Clay Shaw Jr.
23rd 24% 76% Alcee Hastings
24th 55% 45% Tom Feeney
25th 56% 44% Mario Diaz-Balart

Electors

Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Florida cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Florida is allocated 27 electors because it has 25 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 27 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 27 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from Florida. All were pledged to and voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.[9]

  1. Al Austin
  2. Allan Bense
  3. Sally Bradshaw
  4. Al Cardenas
  5. Jennifer Carroll
  6. Armando Codina
  7. Sharon Day
  8. Maria de la Milera
  9. Jim Dozier
  10. David Griffin
  11. Fran Hancock
  12. Cynthia Handley
  13. William Harrison
  14. Al Hoffman
  15. Bill Jordan
  16. Tom Lee
  17. Randall McElheney
  18. Jeanne McIntosh
  19. Nancy Mihm
  20. Gary Morse
  21. Marilyn Paul
  22. Tom Petway
  23. Sergio Pino
  24. John Thrasher
  25. Janet Westling
  26. Robert Woody
  27. Zach Zachariah

References

  1. ^ "Voter Turnout". Florida Division of Elections. 2021. Archived from the original on 2015-06-02.
  2. ^ Leip, David. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org.
  3. ^ "Archived copy". dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on 21 November 2010. Retrieved 13 January 2022.((cite web)): CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  4. ^ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=12[bare URL]
  5. ^ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com.
  6. ^ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com.
  7. ^ "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com.
  8. ^ DavidNYC (2008-12-15). "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project". Swingstateproject.com. Retrieved 2018-11-14.
  9. ^ "U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates". www.archives.gov. 20 May 2019.