Next United Kingdom general election
United Kingdom
← 2019 No later than 28 January 2025 [1]
All 650 seats in the House of Commons
326 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
Conservative Rishi Sunak 354
Labour Keir Starmer 197
SNP Humza Yousaf 45
Liberal Democrats Ed Davey 14
DUP Jeffrey Donaldson 8
Sinn Féin Mary Lou McDonald 7
Plaid Cymru TBD 3
SDLP Colum Eastwood 2
Alba Alex Salmond 2
Green Carla Denyer
Adrian Ramsay 		1
Alliance Naomi Long 1
Reclaim Laurence Fox 1
Independent – 14
Speaker Lindsay Hoyle 1
Incumbent Prime Minister
Rishi Sunak
Conservative

The next United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held no later than 28 January 2025. It will determine the composition of the House of Commons.

Background

The next election is scheduled to be held no later than 28 January 2025, with Parliament being dissolved no later than 17 December 2024, after the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 repealed the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. Although a general election campaign encompassing the Christmas period is seen as unlikely by analysts, it is widely expected that the currently-governing Conservative Party will delay the election as long as possible while it remains behind in opinion polling.[2][3][4]

The result of the 2019 general election and members in the House of Commons is given below.


Affiliation Members
Elected[5] Current[6] Change
Conservative[a] 365 354 Decrease 11
Labour[b] 202 196 Decrease 6
SNP 48 45 Decrease 3
Liberal Democrats 11 14 Increase 3
DUP 8 8 Steady
Sinn Féin 7 7 Steady
Plaid Cymru 4 3 Decrease 1
SDLP 2 2 Steady
Alba 0[c] 2[d] Increase 2
Green 1 1 Steady
Alliance 1 1 Steady
Reclaim 0[c] 1[e] Increase 1
Speaker 1 1 Steady
Independent 0 15[f] Increase 14
Total 650 650 Steady
Voting total[g] 639 639 Steady
Vacant 0 0 Steady
Government majority 87[h] 64[i] Decrease 22
This table:

For full details of changes during the current Parliament, see By-elections and Defections, suspensions and resignations.

Ahead of this general election, HuffPost reported in March 2022 that the Labour Party had abandoned all-women shortlists, citing legal advice that continuing to use them for choosing parliamentary candidates would become an unlawful practice again under the Equality Act 2010.[13]

Following the UK Supreme Court's decision in November 2022, that a proposed second Scottish independence referendum is outside the competence of the Scottish Parliament, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon (SNP) announced her intention to treat the next general election as a de facto independence referendum.[14] Unionist parties have rejected this characterisation.[14] Sturgeon resigned as SNP leader and First Minister on 15 February 2023, and was replaced on 27 March by Humza Yousaf.[15]

Electoral system

See also: Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011 and Politics of the United Kingdom

General elections in the United Kingdom are organised using first-past-the-post voting. The Conservative Party, which won a majority at the 2019 general election, included pledges in its manifesto to remove the 15-year limit on voting for British citizens living abroad, and to introduce a voter identification requirement in Great Britain.[16] Provisions for these changes have been enacted in the Elections Act 2022.

Boundary reviews

The Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, which proposed reducing the number of constituencies from 650 to 600, was commenced in 2011, but temporarily stopped in January 2013. Following the 2015 general election, each of the four parliamentary boundary commissions of the United Kingdom recommenced their review process in April 2016.[17][18][19] The four commissions submitted their final recommendations to the Secretary of State on 5 September 2018[20][21] and made their reports public a week later.[22][23][24][20] However, the proposals were never put forward for approval before the calling of the general election held on 12 December 2019, and in December 2020 the reviews were formally abandoned under the Schedule to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020.[25]

A projection by psephologists Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of how the 2017 votes would have translated to seats under the 2018 boundaries suggested the changes would have been beneficial to the Conservative Party and detrimental to the Labour Party.[26][27]

In March 2020, Cabinet Office minister Chloe Smith confirmed that the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies would be based on retaining 650 seats.[28][29] The previous relevant legislation was amended by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020[30] and the four boundary commissions formally launched their 2023 reviews on 5 January 2021.[31][32][33][34] They are required to issue their final reports prior to 1 July 2023.[25] Once the reports have been laid before Parliament, Orders in Council giving effect to the final proposals must be made within four months, unless "there are exceptional circumstances". Prior to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020, boundary changes could not be implemented until they were approved by both Houses of Parliament.

Date of the election

Legal requirements

At the 2019 general election, where the Conservatives won a majority of 80 seats, the manifesto of the party contained a commitment to repeal the Fixed-term Parliaments Act due to "paralysis at a time when the country has needed decisive action".[35] The pledge was confirmed in the first Queen's Speech following the election.[36]

In December 2020, the government published a draft Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 (Repeal) Bill, later retitled the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022.[37]

The Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 received royal assent on 24 March 2022 and entered into force the same day. The prime minister can again request the monarch to dissolve Parliament and call an early election with 25 working days' notice. Section 4 of the Act provided: "If it has not been dissolved earlier, a Parliament dissolves at the beginning of the day that is the fifth anniversary of the day on which it first met."

The Electoral Commission has confirmed that the 2019 Parliament must be dissolved, at the latest, by 17 December 2024, and that the next general election must take place no later than 28 January 2025, a Tuesday.[38][39][40]

Possible dates

In September 2021, Oliver Dowden, the newly appointed chairman of the Conservative Party, told party staff to prepare for a general election. The Daily Telegraph reported that an election could be held in May or June 2023.[41][42] In March 2022, Dowden announced that the Conservatives would start a two-year election campaign in May, implying an election date of May 2024.[43] It was reported in April 2023 by The Telegraph that autumn 2024 was the preferred date of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak for the election to be held.[44]

Candidates

Main article: Candidates in the next United Kingdom general election

Members of Parliament not standing for re-election

As of 30 May 2023, a total of 56 Members of Parliament have announced their intention to not stand for re-election (Conservative: 38, Labour: 13, Independent: 4, Plaid Cymru: 1).

Members of Parliament not standing for re-election
MP Seat First elected Party Date announced
Douglas Ross Moray 2017 Conservative 14 October 2021[45]
Alex Cunningham Stockton North 2010 Labour 25 November 2021[46]
Margaret Hodge Barking 1994 Labour 2 December 2021[47]
Barry Sheerman Huddersfield 1979 Labour 4 December 2021[48]
Harriet Harman Camberwell and Peckham 1982[j] Labour 7 December 2021[49]
Alan Whitehead Southampton Test 1997 Labour 14 January 2022[50]
Charles Walker Broxbourne 2005 Conservative 1 February 2022[51]
Ben Bradshaw Exeter 1997 Labour 3 February 2022[52]
Wayne David Caerphilly 2001 Labour 11 February 2022[53]
Paul Blomfield Sheffield Central 2010 Labour 21 February 2022[54]
Rosie Winterton Doncaster Central 1997 Labour 27 February 2022[55]
Margaret Beckett Derby South 1974[k] Labour 25 March 2022[56]
Nigel Adams Selby and Ainsty 2010 Conservative 9 April 2022[57]
Crispin Blunt Reigate 1997 Conservative 1 May 2022[58]
Mike Penning Hemel Hempstead 2005 Conservative 17 May 2022[59]
Adam Afriyie Windsor 2005 Conservative 22 July 2022[60]
Jon Cruddas Dagenham and Rainham 2001 Labour 28 July 2022[61]
Colleen Fletcher Coventry North East 2015 Labour 5 September 2022[62]
Andrew Percy Brigg and Goole 2010 Conservative 8 November 2022[63]
Hywel Williams Arfon 2001 Plaid Cymru 11 November 2022[64]
Chloe Smith Norwich North 2009 Conservative 22 November 2022[65][66]
William Wragg Hazel Grove 2015 Conservative
Gary Streeter South West Devon 1992[l] Conservative 25 November 2022[67][68]
Dehenna Davison Bishop Auckland 2019 Conservative
Chris Skidmore Kingswood 2010 Conservative 26 November 2022[69]
Sajid Javid Bromsgrove 2010 Conservative 2 December 2022[70]
Mark Pawsey Rugby 2010 Conservative 5 December 2022[71]
Matt Hancock West Suffolk 2010 Independent[m] 7 December 2022[72]
George Eustice Camborne and Redruth 2010 Conservative 18 January 2023[73]
Edward Timpson Eddisbury 2008[n] Conservative 1 February 2023[74]
Jo Gideon Stoke-on-Trent Central 2019 Conservative 9 February 2023[75][76]
Nadine Dorries Mid Bedfordshire 2005 Conservative
Paul Beresford Mole Valley 1992[o] Conservative 13 February 2023[77][78]
Stephen McPartland Stevenage 2010 Conservative
Robin Walker Worcester 2010 Conservative 3 March 2023[79]
Graham Brady Altrincham and Sale West 1997 Conservative 7 March 2023[80]
Pauline Latham Mid Derbyshire 2010 Conservative 9 March 2023[81]
Gordon Henderson Sittingbourne and Sheppey 2010 Conservative 17 March 2023[82]
Craig Whittaker Calder Valley 2010 Conservative 21 March 2023[83]
Stuart Anderson Wolverhampton South West 2019 Conservative 27 March 2023[84]
Nicola Richards West Bromwich East 2019 Conservative
Eddie Hughes Walsall North 2017 Conservative 31 March 2023[85][86]
Henry Smith Crawley 2010 Conservative
John Howell Henley 2008 Conservative 11 April 2023[87]
Robert Goodwill Scarborough and Whitby 2005 Conservative 13 April 2023[88]
Julian Knight Solihull 2015 Independent[m] 21 April 2023[89][90]
Jonathan Djanogly Huntingdon 2001 Conservative
Chris Pincher Tamworth 2010 Independent[m] 26 April 2023[91]
Matthew Offord Hendon 2010 Conservative 2 May 2023[92]
Conor McGinn St Helens North 2015 Independent[p] 5 May 2023[93]
Alister Jack Dumfries and Galloway 2017 Conservative 17 May 2023[94]
Richard Bacon South Norfolk 2001 Conservative 19 May 2023[95]
Dominic Raab Esher and Walton 2010 Conservative 22 May 2023[96][97]
Philip Dunne Ludlow 2005 Conservative
Margaret Greenwood Wirral West 2015 Labour 23 May 2023[98]
Andy Carter Warrington South 2019 Conservative 30 May 2023[99]

Members of Parliament deselected

See also: Preselection and Deselection of Labour MPs

Some sitting MPs have not been selected by their party to recontest their seat (or a successor seat). Options available to these MPs include retirement, challenging their non-selection, seeking selection for another seat, and contesting the election under a different banner.

Opinion polling

Opinion polling for UK general elections
2010 election
Opinion polls
2015 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
2017 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
2019 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
Next election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval

The chart below shows opinion polls conducted for the next United Kingdom general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS).

Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election after 2019 (LOESS).svg

See also

Notes

  1. ^ The Government of the United Kingdom is headed by the prime minister, who is currently the leader of the Conservative Party, the largest party in the House of Commons.
  2. ^ Labour, as the largest party not in government, takes the role of Official Opposition. The Labour total includes 26 MPs sponsored by the Co-operative Party, who are designated Labour and Co-operative.[7]
  3. ^ a b At the time of the 2019 election this party did not exist.
  4. ^ Both of the Alba Party's MPs were elected for the Scottish National Party (SNP) before leaving to join Alba in 2021.[8]
  5. ^ Reclaim's sole MP, Andrew Bridgen, was elected for the Conservative Party before being expelled in April 2023.[9] He joined Reclaim the next month.[10]
  6. ^ Six were elected for the Conservatives, seven for Labour and one each for the SNP and Plaid Cymru.
  7. ^ The seven members of Sinn Féin abstain, i.e. they do not take their seats in the House of Commons;[11] the speaker and three deputy speakers (two Conservative and one Labour) have only a tie-breaking vote constrained by conventions.[12]
  8. ^ The number of voting government MPs less two non-voting deputy speakers (363), minus the sum of all other present MPs less the non-voting speaker and one deputy speaker (276).[6]
  9. ^ The number of voting government MPs less two non-voting deputy speakers (352), minus the sum of all other present MPs less the non-voting speaker and one deputy speaker (288).
  10. ^ Originally elected as the MP for Peckham in the 1982 by-election.
  11. ^ Originally elected as the MP for Lincoln in the October 1974 election
  12. ^ Originally elected as the MP for Plymouth Sutton.
  13. ^ a b c Elected as Conservative.
  14. ^ Originally elected as the MP for Crewe and Nantwich in the 2008 by-election.
  15. ^ Originally elected as the MP for Croydon Central.
  16. ^ Elected as Labour.

References

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