The next Senedd election is due to be held in or before May 2026[1] to elect 60 members to the Senedd (Welsh Parliament; Welsh: Senedd Cymru). It will be the seventh devolvedgeneral election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. It will also be the second election since the Senedd changed its name in May 2020.
A reform of the voting system is being discussed by the Senedd, with the Welsh Government seeking to implement it for the next election. Electoral reform for the Senedd is being suggested in multiple areas, including increasing the size of the Senedd from 60 to 96 MSs, changing the voting method to a closed list proportional representation system, reducing the number of constituencies to 16 with each electing six MSs, and enforcing gender quotas.
Retiring members
The following MSs have announced their intention not run for re-election:
Since its establishment in 1999, the Senedd (formerly the Welsh Assembly) has been elected through the additional member system, by which some of the seats (in Wales, 20 out of 60) are attributed regionally (in 5 regions of 4 seats) on the basis of a second vote for a party list, while the other seats are attributed through the customary plurality voting in single-member districts (40 out of 60, the same as those used for Westminster). AMS distributes the seats with the intent of compensating for disproportionalities caused by plurality voting.
16 constituencies are proposed to be created from these 32 new parliamentary constituencies
A Special Committee was set up in October 2021 to look at Senedd reform.[3] In May 2022, a joint position statement was published by First MinisterMark Drakeford and Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price, and sent to the Special Committee,[4] calling for a 96-Member Senedd, all elected through closed party listproportional representation (using the D'Hondt method) with mandatory "zipping" of male and female candidates in the list to ensure that for every party, half of the Members will be women (unlike the voluntary all-women shortlists used by the Liberal Democrats and until 2022 the Labour Party). The elections would be organised in 16 six-member regions created by pairing up the 32 redrawn Westminster constituencies.[5]
The final report of the Special Committee was published on 30 May 2022 and recommends the system agreed to by the Labour and Plaid Cymru leaders.[6] Although the Expert Panel preferred the single transferable vote to any other method, the closed list PR system was favoured by the Committee because of its capacity to enforce gender quotas through mandatory zipping.[6] The report was discussed and approved in plenary session on 8 June 2022.[7]
In February 2023, plans for additional reform included:
Candidates must be resident in Wales
A defection of an MS to another party is not permitted. An MS would instead have to become an independent.
Independent candidates must disclose any party membership[8]
Opinion polling
Constituency vote
LOESS curve of the polling for the next Senedd Election Constituency Votes.
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