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Turnout | 59.06% 11.83%[1] | |||||||||||||||||||
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Hogan: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Jealous: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Maryland |
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Government |
The 2018 Maryland gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018. The date included the election of the governor, lieutenant governor, and all members of the Maryland General Assembly. Incumbent governor Larry Hogan and Lieutenant Governor Boyd Rutherford, both Republicans, were re-elected to a second term against Democrat Ben Jealous, the former NAACP CEO, and his running mate Susan Turnbull.
Hogan became the second Republican governor of Maryland to win re-election, and the first since 1954.[2] This was the first Maryland gubernatorial election in which both major party candidates received over one million votes.
As of 2023, this is the last time that a Republican won a statewide election in Maryland.
At the presidential level, Maryland is a staunchly Democratic state due to the large amount of Democratic voters in the Washington metropolitan area and Baltimore City. Maryland has not seen a Republican presidential candidate win its votes since 1988, and the state has not been within 15% since 2004; Hillary Clinton won the state by 26 points over Donald Trump (60% to 34%) in 2016, Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by 26 points in 2012 (62% to 36%), and Obama defeated John McCain by 25 points in 2008 (62% to 37%).
Hogan was elected governor in 2014, defeating then-lieutenant governor Anthony Brown by a margin of 51–47; the result was considered one of the biggest election upsets that year.[3] Prior to Hogan's victory, Bob Ehrlich, elected in 2002, had been the only Republican elected as Governor of Maryland since Spiro Agnew. However, Ehrlich was defeated for reelection in 2006 by Martin O'Malley and defeated again in 2010, when he faced O'Malley in a rematch.
In April 2018, Hogan had a 68% approval rating, the second-highest approval of any governor in the country, only behind Governor Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, who had a 71% approval rating.[4] Despite the state's Democratic leaning, Hogan had a high approval rating among all partisan groups (65% approval from Democrats, 64% of Independents, and 81% of Republicans).[5]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Larry Hogan (incumbent) | 210,935 | 100.00% | |
Total votes | 210,935 | 100.00% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Rushern Baker |
Valerie Ervin |
Ben Jealous |
Kevin Kamenetz |
Richard Madaleno |
Jim Shea |
Krish Vignarajah |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gonzales Research | June 4–10, 2018 | 505 | ± 4.5% | 25% | 7% | 23% | – | 9% | 6% | 5% | 2%[a] | 22% |
OpinionWorks | May 29 – June 6, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 16% | 5% | 16% | – | 4% | 4% | 4% | 7%[b] | 44% |
University of Maryland | May 29 – June 3, 2018 | 532 | ± 6.0% | 16% | 8% | 21% | – | 6% | 4% | 4% | 2%[c] | 39% |
Mason-Dixon | February 20–24, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 26% | – | 14% | 15% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3%[d] | 32% |
Goucher College | February 12–18, 2018 | 409 | ± 4.8% | 19% | – | 10% | 12% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 6%[111] | 47% |
Gonzales Research Archived 2018-01-28 at the Wayback Machine | December 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.5% | 24% | – | 14% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 8%[e] | 33% |
Mason-Dixon | September 27–30, 2017 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 28% | – | 10% | 11% | 3% | <1% | 1% | 1%[f] | 46% |
Goucher College | September 14–18, 2017 | 324 | ± 5.4% | 13% | – | 6% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 22%[g] | 44% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Ben Jealous | 231,895 | 39.6% | |
Democratic | Rushern Baker | 171,696 | 29.3% | |
Democratic | Jim Shea | 48,647 | 8.3% | |
Democratic | Krish O'Mara Vignarajah | 48,041 | 8.2% | |
Democratic | Richard Madaleno | 34,184 | 5.8% | |
Democratic | Kevin Kamenetz/Valerie Ervin | 18,851 | 3.2% | |
Democratic | Alec Ross | 13,780 | 2.4% | |
Democratic | Ralph Jaffe | 9,405 | 1.6% | |
Democratic | James Jones | 9,188 | 1.6% | |
Total votes | 585,687 | 100.0% |
Following the Maryland Green Party's nominating procedure, the delegates of the Coordinating Council, which is the party's State Central Committee, made the decision to nominate the gubernatorial ticket as no other candidate had filed by the party's March 30, 2018, deadline. More than one ticket seeking the nomination would have required the party to conduct a primary, an obligation not mandated by the State Board of Elections for non-principal parties.[114]
Green State Central Committee Designation[114] April 20 – April 25 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Delegates in favor | Delegates against | Delegates not voting |
Ian Schlakman / Annie Chambers | 15 | 0 | 5 |
Candidate | Votes in favor | Votes against | Not voting |
---|---|---|---|
Shawn Quinn / Christina Smith | 32 | 1 | 0 |
Larry Hogan and Ben Jealous met for their one and only scheduled debate on September 24. The debate was livestreamed in the evening by the Maryland Public Television.[116]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[117] | Likely R | October 26, 2018 |
The Washington Post[118] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight[119] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
Rothenberg Political Report[120] | Likely R | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[121] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics[122] | Likely R | November 4, 2018 |
Daily Kos[123] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
Fox News[124][a] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
Politico[125] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
Governing[126] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Larry Hogan (R) |
Ben Jealous (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of Maryland | October 4–7, 2018 | 648 LV | ± 4.5% | 58% | 38% | 0% | 3% |
814 RV | ± 4.0% | 56% | 36% | 0% | 2% | ||
Gonzales Research | October 1–6, 2018 | 806 | ± 3.5% | 54% | 36% | 2%[a] | 9% |
Mason-Dixon | September 24–26, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 52% | 37% | 2%[a] | 9% |
Goucher College | September 11–16, 2018 | 472 | ± 4.5% | 54% | 32% | 2%[a] | 9% |
Gonzales Research | August 1–8, 2018 | 831 | ± 3.5% | 52% | 36% | 1%[b] | 11% |
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Jealous) | July 10–14, 2018 | 601 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% |
Gonzales Research | June 4–10, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 51% | 34% | – | 14% |
University of Maryland | May 29 – June 3, 2018 | 968 | ± 4.5% | 51% | 39% | – | 10% |
Goucher College | April 14–19, 2018 | 617 | ± 3.9% | 44% | 31% | – | 22% |
Mason-Dixon | February 20–22, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 50% | 33% | – | 17% |
Gonzales Research | December 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018 | 823 | ± 3.5% | 49% | 36% | – | 15% |
Mason-Dixon | September 27–30, 2017 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 33% | – | 18% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Larry Hogan (R) |
Rushern Baker (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gonzales Research | June 4–10, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 48% | 37% | 15% |
University of Maryland | May 29 – June 3, 2018 | 968 | ± 4.5% | 51% | 39% | 9% |
Goucher College | April 14–19, 2018 | 617 | ± 3.9% | 44% | 31% | 22% |
Burton Research & Strategies (R) | March 4–11, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 54% | 29% | 15% |
Mason-Dixon | February 20–22, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 36% | 13% |
Gonzales Research | December 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018 | 823 | ± 3.5% | 47% | 37% | 16% |
Mason-Dixon | September 27–30, 2017 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 39% | 15% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Larry Hogan (R) |
Richard Madaleno (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gonzales Research | June 4–10, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 50% | 36% | 14% |
University of Maryland | May 29 – June 3, 2018 | 465–497 | ± 6.0–6.5% | 50% | 40% | 10% |
Goucher College | April 14–19, 2018 | 617 | ± 3.9% | 45% | 27% | 26% |
Mason-Dixon | September 27–30, 2017 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 30% | 21% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Larry Hogan (R) |
Alec Ross (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of Maryland | May 29 – June 3, 2018 | 465–497 | ± 6.0–6.5% | 55% | 31% | 13% |
Goucher College | April 14–19, 2018 | 617 | ± 3.9% | 46% | 26% | 26% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Larry Hogan (R) |
Jim Shea (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of Maryland | May 29 – June 3, 2018 | 465–497 | ± 6.0–6.5% | 53% | 35% | 13% |
Goucher College | April 14–19, 2018 | 617 | ± 3.9% | 47% | 27% | 25% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Larry Hogan (R) |
Krish Vignarajah (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of Maryland | May 29 – June 3, 2018 | 465–497 | ± 6.0–6.5% | 54% | 35% | 11% |
Goucher College | April 14–19, 2018 | 617 | ± 3.9% | 45% | 25% | 27% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Larry Hogan (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goucher College | February 12–17, 2018 | 658 | ± 3.8% | 47% | 43% | – | 10% |
GBA Strategies (D) | November 14–18, 2017 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 35% | – | – |
OpinionWorks | October 25 – November 7, 2017 | 850 | ± 3.3% | 43% | 28% | 4% | 24% |
Washington Post/University of Maryland | March 19–22, 2017 | 914 | ± 4.0% | 39% | 36% | 3% | 22% |
Washington Post/University of Maryland | March 16–19, 2017 | 914 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 37% | 2% | 20% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Larry Hogan (R) |
Valerie Ervin (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of Maryland | May 29 – June 3, 2018 | 465–497 | ± 6.0–6.5% | 51% | 38% | 11% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Larry Hogan (R) |
Kevin Kamenetz (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goucher College | April 14–19, 2018 | 617 | ± 3.9% | 45% | 28% | 23% |
Burton Research & Strategies (R) | March 4–11, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 57% | 26% | 15% |
Mason-Dixon | February 20–22, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 34% | 17% |
Gonzales Research | December 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018 | 823 | ± 3.5% | 48% | 34% | 18% |
Mason-Dixon | September 27–30, 2017 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 35% | 17% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Larry Hogan (R) |
John Delaney (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | April 15–17, 2016 | 879 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 29% | 24% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Larry Hogan (R) |
Tom Perez (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | April 15–17, 2016 | 879 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 24% | 28% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Larry Hogan (incumbent) | 1,275,644 | 55.35% | +4.32% | |
Democratic | Ben Jealous | 1,002,639 | 43.51% | -3.74% | |
Libertarian | Shawn Quinn | 13,241 | 0.57% | -0.89% | |
Green | Ian Schlakman | 11,175 | 0.48% | N/A | |
Write-in | 1,813 | 0.08% | -0.18% | ||
Total votes | 2,304,512 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Republican hold |
Hogan carried 6 of 8 congressional districts, including 5 held by Democrats. This included the district of then-House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, which Hogan lost to Hoyer in 1992.
District | Larry Hogan |
Ben Jealous |
Elected Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 79.20% | 19.69% | Andy Harris |
2nd | 55.94% | 42.90% | Dutch Ruppersberger |
3rd | 55.80% | 43.03% | John Sarbanes |
4th | 40.29% | 58.74% | Anthony Brown |
5th | 51.91% | 47.04% | Steny Hoyer |
6th | 59.41% | 39.31% | David Trone |
7th | 43.87% | 54.83% | Elijah Cummings |
8th | 53.16% | 45.76% | Jamie Raskin |