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I am a scientist in metrology at international level since several decades, having set the Italian temperature primary standards below 0 °C at the primary metrological Institute of Italy. In science however, recalling to metrology should not even be necessary for the comments that follows, because it is a basic rule of science to associate an uncertainty to every (set of) measurement result (and also to models and theoretical inferences). It is mandatory in communications between scientists and in communication with media and socially. To limit myself to a single example, in your initial figure about the temperature variations in the last century, the uncertainty band of the trend is lacking, not probably being of uniform width in that interval, since today it is likely to be narrower. The “noise” in the trend is NOT indicating the uncertainty of the measurements, is only that of a running mean. The lower uncertainty of a mean does not increase the confidence on the base precision of the single measurements. My personal position, as a metrologist competent in temperature measurements, is that the uncertainty level at a 90% confidence level, based on a full uncertainty budget, cannot be lower that ≈ ± 1.5 °C (round estimate). The fact that the width of the band results to be almost as wide as the total temperature change does not in itself mean that one cannot estimate an overall increase of temperature in time of the mean Earth temperature, but that one cannot assess that it is close to (+1.5 ± ...) °C with reasonable confidence (yet), also considering that the present visual increase is limited to a few decades, not even on the full period of time. I do not share the opinion contrasting the possibility that the increase could even be quite smaller with the argument that symmetrically there is an equal possibility of a much higher increase: not for the thermodynamic quantity temperature of the Earth. Instead, the factually large uncertainty places very big difficulties in choosing reasonable accurate models concerning the present trend and, consequently, in devising reasonable extrapolations ahead of decades (not even speaking of centuries!).
37.182.14.206 (talk) 11:33, 17 February 2022 (UTC)Dr. Franco Pavese Senior Scientist, Research Director
frpavese@gmail.com https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Franco_Pavese
(formerly: Istituto Nazionale di Ricerca Metrologica (INRiM) (National Institute for Research in Metrology) Division Thermodynamics strada delle Cacce 91 10135 Torino, Italy until 2006: CNR - Istituto di Metrologia "G.Colonnetti" (IMGC) strada delle Cacce 73 10135 Torino, Italy)
IPCC, like in that figure, often includes the set of single readings in addition to the running mean, looking like a gray "noisy" band wider than the noisy running mean trend. It is NOT an uncertainty indication, but only the SPREAD of single readings. A trained scientist easy understand this issue since an uncertainty band is, obviously, almost of constant width in the full set. Also the band is not a sufficient indication, since it cannot detail the uncertainty components:, a scientist has always to publish also the underlying "uncertainty budget" (e.g. see F.PAVESE: “Graphic method for retrieval of quantitative data from computer-mapped qualitative information, with a NASA video as an example”, 2020, ESIN 13, 655-662) — Preceding unsigned comment added by Frpavese (talk • contribs) 10:32, 18 February 2022 (UTC)
In a graphical representation like the IPCC figure, it is represented by a smooth upper and lower line making a band larger than the data reported (single data or running mean). The results uncertainty is NOT lowered by elaborating the data in ANY way, e.g. by the mean. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Frpavese (talk • contribs) 16:24, 18 February 2022 (UTC)
To get back to basics, for any discussion we need a relible source showing published discussion of this issue as part of Global warming controversy, and not just personal opinions or fringe claims that it's "controversial". The topic of measurement uncertainty is itself of interest, and doesn't seem to be well covered in the instrumental temperature record article which I think would be the appropriate place. Can you have a look at that, and propose good published sources for appropriate coverage? . dave souza, talk 18:10, 18 February 2022 (UTC)
In that respect, you do not have to see it as a mere discussion about technical issues concerning temperature measurement in itself, but about the consequences of what I consider a wrong approach for hearth climate. Temperature is the most difficult parameter to measure with high confidence, for many reasons, one being the fact of being a local parameter: even locally, it is not trivial to have it affected by an uncertainty lower than 0.5 °C (I do not know if I have enough room here to list all the main reasons). Consequently, putting on the floor mean earth values without an indication of the total estimated uncertainty is not only un-scientific, but deceiving at the social and political frames. There are editorials on scientific (and not) Journals about the difficulty to have the concept of uncertain value understood in those frames, even recently on Nature, but it is difficult to indicate a first-class specific paper covering the issue, even in the frame of philosophy of science. I might only provide papers demonstrating how large may be the difference between the standard deviation of the data dispersion and the actual one of a full uncertainty budget, even in primary thermometry. I might try myself, having personal competence, to write one, but, if I will also place doubts about the current (very ambiguous) situation, I will incur in a risk that I have already experienced personally: to have the manuscript rejected for being considered controversial with respect to the "currect majority" of thinking and support about the climate change, irrespective to its quality. That is the true situation, growing rapidly up. Therefore, I am really appreciating the possibility offered by Wikipedia, and I will do my best to correctly implement its conversation rules. I close now by simply stressing that, in the lack of any published uncertainty budget associated to the provided values (the error "bar" to be associated to any published value being a consequence of that budget, not the simple standard deviation of the measured values set), a scientist cannot have any confidence (in statistical meaning) of the fact that the present increase of less of +1 °C in a few decades after 1980 is not affected by a comparable, if not even larger uncertainty, as to its size. There is an IPCC 2018 figure on the "temperature anomaly" (I am not able to add it here) showing various ways of picturing the situation, from running mean, to full set of measurements, to holocene range, all having a different standard deviation and all not implicating an uncertainty budget. In principle, the most recent trend could even merely be a temporal singularity without firm back support and sensible extrapolation ahead, in scientific terms based on the acquired knowledge from the past measured trend. Frpavese (talk) 11:52, 19 February 2022 (UTC)Franco Pavese
If you are involving the "organisations", you are thus talking of consensus values, as in fact IPCC is stating in his Report on uncertainty (ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter2). However that position has been discussed in a philosophy of science recent paper, where it is indicated that, so doing, IPCC si relying not on consensus (i.e. an –empirical– decision) but on adhesion (of each single organisation, "political") (sorry, I have to retrieve the paper), a non-scientific practice. In that sense your last statement is scientifically false. The uncertainty budget of each contribution has to be made public, and a weighted mean of them should also be public. Can you indicate me the relevant references? Frpavese (talk) 14:09, 19 February 2022 (UTC)Franco Pavese
In particular, Fig. 6 brings a lot of light on the actual situation. I concentrated on the map for the period 2000-2018 and, by using my computer technique described in F.Pavese, “Graphic method for retrieval of quantitative data from computer-mapped qualitative information, with a NASA video as an example”, 2020, ESIN 13, 655-662. I computed the areas where the temperature had increased, in steps of +0.25 °C or higher (from +0 °C up to > +2 °C). I found that, by increasing temperature increase, it becomes almost totally concentrated on the northern emisphere, and increasing toward the North pole, where is more than 2 °C. There is no much increase in the North America except in a small part of California and in South America except in a small part of Brazil. In Eurasia it is only above approximately the latitude of the Mediterranean sea plus north-est Africa. Being the representation squared, the areas indicated above are corrected for the real shape of the eart. In first approximation I considered triangular (so I divided by 2 these areas) the Artic and Antartic regions, so that both these regions play in fact a very small role on the total earth increase. In the NASA graph, in the same period the total mean increase of the earth is reported, being 1980 the baseline, to be about +0.8 °C. From the above analysis a consistent value can be obtained with the HadCRAT map one. However, more important is, in my opinion, the fact that, looking at the HadCRAT map, one perceives the extreme un-homogeneity of the variations, and that the changes are quite mild for most of the surface, so that one does not get the same impression and a reason for the extreme alarm that IPCC is launching by only supplying information about the global mean temperature increase. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Frpavese (talk • contribs) 09:18, 21 February 2022 (UTC)
An uncertainty of ± 0.05 °C today, and of a few tenths of a degree batch to one century, is by far not representing the metrological capabilities and status of the meteological stations, by a factor of not less than 10, in general more. In addition, the local total (not only methodological/computational) uncertainty of such extremely complex kind of analysis is certainly the result of dozens of components, each carrying a non-zero contribution (in this case at 2σ level). This means that, in order to get 0.05 °C as their full combination, most should be at a level lower than 0.01 °C or less, which sounds to be simply impossible to believe and to justify as a mean world surface temperature, a parameter probably the most difficult to evaluate, also because it is local. In order to avoid basing that immense work and this conversation on believe, there are only two metrological tools (mandatory pillars) available in measurement science: (a) thermometer calibration and (b) calibration traceability (worldwide in this case, far from being widely implemented). (a) Only a direct inter-comparison of the calibrated thermometers at one site, can correct off-calibration conditions, so reducing the sensor uncertainty; (b) Traceability worldwide of those calibrations is also mandatory and can mitigate the need for (a) in some circumstances. In addition, all these checks have a finite-time validity. None of the above requirements looks applied to the immense work done by the authors. In conclusion, their paper cannot simply ask the reader to look at a large number of previous publications. In these publications, a Table with the full Uncertainty Budget must be included and commented. The published uncertainty is only credible if considered a (minor) component of the effective total uncertainty of the results, and thus is not suitable for information diffused toward non-technical audiences, like the social and political are. I am surprised by the fact that NIST was apparently not involved. Such lack makes other scientist to think that they can consistently make extrapolations in time of the past trend(s), while the true uncertainty would quite clearly make clear the high level of risk about the confidence that can be attached to those extrapolations. I think I should add to the title of this Talk: ". Uncertainty budget.", just to eliminate some misunderstandings that occurred so far in the conversation. References to what an uncertainty budget is and how it looks like can be found by reading any Final Report of a Comparison of temperature sensors collected in the BIPM website at: https://www.bipm.org/kcdb/comparison/quick-search?keywords=thermometry&displayResults=true . The rules for primary thermometers apply also to “industrial” thermometers, simply for larger uncertainty levels.Frpavese (talk) 09:54, 21 February 2022 (UTC)Franco Pavese
The uncertainty issue does not only involve certain branches of statistics, in particular thus presently mostly used, but also the metrological branch of measurement science, that is also and unavoidably methodological. My point is prevalently methodological, and saying that the relevant studies are OR only means ignoring one century of specific studies, bringing to international procedures that sound measurement, and their numerical results, must follow to be considered acceptable. Omitting the metrological step from evaluation of the results means funding the conclusions on sand, especially for a worldwide study, where one cannot assume that all (or most) of the data are collected and based on the correct procedures. The need of calibration and international traceability is not disputable, and ignorance of any sector of experimental science about these foundations cannot be admitted, especially for results of social importance, like medicine and ambient. One of the resulting need is the obligation to inform about uncertainty, by also publishing a summary Uncertainty Budget for allowing the Community to understand the reliability of the data and the level of confidence, not only in strict statistical sense, that can be associated to them. That budget must include the first step, the initial uncertainty of the collected data, and then the additional uncertainties that arise from any manipulation of them (the mean of different sorts being only an example). Obviously, there is a big difference, for the final level of confidence, of a result e.g., (+1 ± 0.05) or (+1 ± 0.8).Frpavese (talk) 08:01, 22 February 2022 (UTC)Franco Pavese
As a scientist, I learned since many years that one must of science is having discussions confronting different opinions, without one position systematically labeling another position, e.g. “denialist bullshit. --Hob Gadling”. My impression is that, unfortunately, something similar fact risks to happen in this discussion, where “consensus” on IPCC position has been given for granted, and competent papers are apparently considered only those supporting a single position. I can bring here a few quick examples (among many) of the fact that some criticim I rised on the present information supplied by Wikipedia are also considered in papers that I consider scientific and competent: –Value management and model pluralism in climate science, Julie Jebeile, Michel Crucifix, Studies in History and Philosophy of Science 88 (2021) 120–127: “we believe that including diverse views can make estimates of uncertainty more reliable by taking into account sources of uncertainty related to geographical and other representational shortcomings overlooked in previous models” –Uncertainty and Decision Making in Climate change economics, Geoffrey Heal and Antony Millnery http://reep.oxfordjournals.org/ at Columbia University Libraries on July 9, 20: ““uncertainty” (unknown probabilities) rather than “risk” (known probabilities)”” –Non-additive probability, Damjan ˇSkulj, 20021 Wordcat Identities /oclc/444083262, Meeting of Young Statisticians (6: 2001, Ossiach, Proceedings Str. 98-112): “The difference between risk and uncertainty is that risk is related to decisions made with known probabilities of events, while uncertainty relates to decisions with unknown probabilities”. I do not include any paper of Dr. Roy Spencer since I am supposing that they are considered “rubbish” here. About the obligation to include an Uncertainty Budget in Final Reports (and possible subsequent publications) there is consensus in measurement science and specifically in metrology (I have already supplied the BIPM reference). About the standard deviation not being sufficient to validate the state-of-the-art in critical conclusions there is scientific consensus that does not need a specific reference. About the possible human effect, I did not express any partial position: it may arise only after the actual total uncertainty of the evaluations is ascertained, correctly attributed and published. About using World maps (like done by HadCRAT), instead of stating a single worldwide value of the annual increase (like done by IPCC), is certainty highly desirable to clarify the controversy, because it adds a lot more critical information, useful not only to the scientists. That would be a benefit for Wikipedia.Frpavese (talk) 15:04, 23 February 2022 (UTC)Franco Pavese
"Climate change controversy 2.6 Analysis of temperature records 2.6.1 Instrumental record of surface temperature
Needs be preceeded by: 2.6.0 NEW "Data uncertainty budget" (not concerning model uncertainty, which could deserve a separate item; not for Measurement Uncertainty)
Meteorological temperature records consist of numerical values of temperature (local, of air, at Earth surface) Tlas, measured with thermometers at the meteorological stations round the World. The values are strictly local as any measured T value is, so requiring additional local assumptions to form a regional map. They are measurement of the air temperature at a certain level above ground, requiring standardized methods taking into account other factors, e.g., radiation, wind effects, introducing corrections in the uncertain measured value. That substantially brings, accordingly, to a consensus value. WMO international standardized rules exist [1, 2] for these types of measurement and their uncertainty computation. They are conforming the general methods used in measurement science and specifically in those concerning metrological good practice, [3–9] but they are not yet implemented uniformly and with the same conformity round the world, as it would be strictly necessary in this case. In science, the measurements are based on two basic principles originating from the metrological frame of measurement science: (a) Calibration of the thermometers; (b) Worldwide traceability of the calibrations. (a) Calibration. It ensures that the measured values pertain, within a specified uncertainty, to a specific and unique scale of measurement, in this case the Celsius scale based on the Celsius unit °C (considering also the kelvin scale and ITS-90 is irrelevant here). The thermometer stability in time is not un-definite, meaning that recalibration is necessary at regular time intervals. (b) Traceability. It means that the measured values can be compared with each other, because it is known that the standards used to calibrate the thermometers are, within a certain uncertainty, realizations of the same temperature unit (so that they are consistent with each other). For the numerical values to be collected in the Earth overall database, conformity to the same standard of the measurement technique and of the apparatus used must be ensured (often the thermometers used today are of the electrical type, e.g. measuring an electrical resistance, but not all, as mercury-in-glass thermometers are still widely used). This fact is introducing additional uncertainty, as is the way to report the local data—e.g., by making means from different thermometers, or measurements at different times when the provided value concerns a full (or part of a) day. Consequently, already the originally supplied data are affected by a (large) number of uncertainty components. Then, their elaboration follows, performed by the central bodies dedicated to obtain the global mean value. By reading their Final Reports summarizing the elaboration, one becomes informed about the procedures adopted (e.g., normalization, interpolation of data when not existing, smoothing, homogenization, introduction of new assumptions, …), normally based on sound statistical procedures, but very rarely numerical information is also provided. Since a decision must eventually be taken to provide a single Earth mean value, the above procedures as assumed to take into account also the risk of false components of the decision, so they are elaborated being based on “known probabilities” [10]. Instead, “uncertainties” are affected by “unknown probabilities”, [10] originally affecting the originally supplied data, not mitigated by the risk evaluation. Actually, these uncertainties are apparently not included in the computation of the final standard deviation eventually quoted as the uncertainty of the supplied Earth mean value— the latter being the only numerical datum included in most final Reports. If so, the provided result looks confounding data consistency with data uncertainty: In fact, consistency can be improved by the above manipulations, but the original uncertainty (plus all the above indicated supplementary uncertainty components) cannot be mitigated, What looks lacking at present is the so-called “Uncertainty Budget” (UB). This is an item that, according to the worldwide metrological definition [11], solely explicitly provides the actual total value (or interval) of the uncertainty, for a given confidence level, to be assigned to the computed final mean temperature value—the only one allowing the users of these data to make their own evaluation on scientific bases. The UB, which internationally is mandatory to be attached to any Report of a metrological exercise (see, in addition to the Wikipedia term UB, also [12, 13]), as the meteorological instrumental records also are, basically consists of a Table, reporting in single lines each measurement component having an uncertainty affecting the results—a numerical estimation arising from the measurement procedure. In the present case, the first line is the uncertainty attributed to the value assigned by each meteorological Station. The overall uncertainty is then computed by combination in quadrature of the values in all the lines (also according to the classification of the type of uncertainty). The Report due from each measuring Station is used by the Central Bodies as the initial input information from each Station. Then, each manipulation on these data made by the Central Bodies introduces new uncertainty components, so that the final Uncertainty Budget will also contain one line for each overall component of uncertainty arising from one type of manipulation. Then the final uncertainty of the Earth mean temperature value should computed by combination in quadrature of all these component values. [12] The one reported in [14–16], is instead the standard deviation for 95% confidence level of the final one resulting from the final statistical treatment only (e.g., for IPCC at present ± 0.05 °C). A complementary way for numerical evaluations is the use of regional or full-Earth temperature maps, whose visually and analytically consultation is much more informative with respect to the single overall mean value. The temperature distribution on the Earth surface, while possibly bringing to the stated mean value, will also show a distribution and in-homogeneities that are vital to get a firmer evaluation of the evolution with time of the distribution in the map and on the overall mean value (e.g. [15]), especially in view of extrapolation to future time. The resulting confidence about the estimated trend and mean final value of the existing data is decreasing by increasing the uncertainty of the trend and of that value, and is rapidly decreased for extrapolations of the trend to future—progressively more for longer extrapolation time." Frpavese (talk) 15:32, 16 March 2022 (UTC)Franco Pavese
I find it remarkable that this article lacks any information about the "climate wars" in Australia. If anything climate change is as politically divisive there as in the United States, meaning this article is also highly relevant to the country. Currently Australia is not mentioned once. There has been plenty written about this. E.g.
Would be great to include this here. Arcahaeoindris (talk) 08:23, 19 September 2022 (UTC)
Also here: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-57606398.amp Arcahaeoindris (talk) 08:24, 19 September 2022 (UTC)
Today and yesterday, I did some culling and updating. I moved quite a bit of content to other Wikipedia articles where it fitted better, like public opinion on climate change. Also, I think we should not double up with content that is at scientific consensus on climate change. So I have removed that as well and replaced it with an excerpt. More culling and condensing needs to take place. See also merger discussion here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:History_of_climate_change_policy_and_politics#Merge_Global_warming_controversy_into_here? EMsmile (talk) 10:20, 9 November 2023 (UTC)
I think the section on "Political pressure on scientists" is somewhat interesting but doesn't fit in this article as it's not really a "controversy", just a description of what happened and more related to denial tactics. I am pondering if I should move it to an article that is U.S. specific like climate change in the United States or Climate change policy of the United States. Of should it be moved to climate change denial? Or history of climate change science or History of climate change policy and politics. Thoughts? EMsmile (talk) 09:28, 15 November 2023 (UTC)
Hi User:Yopienso: I see you objected to me having removed some graphs from the "scientific consensus" section. The reason is that I am condensing this article back down to its core content: it should talk about any real or imagined controversies. It does not need to repeat the actual scientific consensus as that is in the other article. But I have now included two graphs via the excerpt function from scientific consensus on climate change. I think that is a good compromise. They are more up to date than the one that you had re-instated, and which I have now taken out again. I plan to also rework the section about "instrumental temperature record" and remove the graph that is currently there. Again, this could be replaced by an excerpt. Overall, I think this article could work if it's refocused and renamed to climate change debates, like I suggested above. Or fully merged into climate change denial, see also above. EMsmile (talk) 10:04, 20 November 2023 (UTC)
There is now another merger discussion to merge this article into climate change denial, see here: Talk:Climate change denial#Merge global warming controversy into here?. An alternative option could be to rework this article to become one that just lists past and ongoing debates (calling it purposefully debates not controversies). It could then be renamed "climate change debates" and contain quite a few excerpts. It could be a bit like a landing page to point people to the right sub-pages. A bit similar to climate change action (but longer). Thoughts? EMsmile (talk) 16:30, 17 November 2023 (UTC)
The result of the move request was: not moved. (non-admin closure) Edward-Woodrow (talk) 21:49, 1 December 2023 (UTC)
Global warming controversy → Climate change debates – I have recently reworked this article to become one that just lists past and ongoing debates (calling it purposefully debates not controversies). I propose to rename it to "climate change debates". It could contain quite a few excerpts and be a bit like a landing page to point people to the right sub-pages. A bit similar to climate change action (but longer). - We also discussed merging it into climate change denial and a few editors have supported this but I think some of its content is not about denial per se but just about past discussions. One of the Wikipedians said "Global warming controversy should be eliminated as "controversy" is a fabrication of deniers.". At a later stage, some of its content could also be moved to history of climate change science. EMsmile (talk) 18:47, 22 November 2023 (UTC)
Many of the incoming wikilinks that can be found from "what links here" ought to be corrected and changed to link to climate change denial or to scientific consensus on climate change in some cases. This is a large, tedious task. If anyone is willing to help please go ahead. I've already corrected some of the redirects. The list of redirects is actually quite interesting, see here (what is a "warmist")?:
The redirect Global warming wager has been listed at redirects for discussion to determine whether its use and function meets the redirect guidelines. Readers of this page are welcome to comment on this redirect at Wikipedia:Redirects for discussion/Log/2023 November 29 § Global warming wager until a consensus is reached. Jalen Folf (talk) 21:53, 29 November 2023 (UTC)
The redirect Brownlash has been listed at redirects for discussion to determine whether its use and function meets the redirect guidelines. Readers of this page are welcome to comment on this redirect at Wikipedia:Redirects for discussion/Log/2023 November 30 § Brownlash until a consensus is reached. Steel1943 (talk) 15:02, 30 November 2023 (UTC)
The result of the move request was: Moved to List of climate change controversies. Per consensus on the alternative proposed title. (closed by non-admin page mover) – robertsky (talk) 01:20, 15 December 2023 (UTC)
Global warming controversy → List of global warming controversies – This article has now been reworked to be a list article. It's basically a landing page to show people where they can look for this kind of content. Most of the previous content has been moved to climate change denial. I think it is important to change it to plural (i.e. controversies, not controversy). My previous proposal to change it to "climate change debates" achieved no consensus. Setting this up as a basic list article is a good compromise solution, I think. EMsmile (talk) 11:16, 8 December 2023 (UTC)
I noticed that there are several users who have been quite active in discussions on this talk page, even though I do not usually see them participate in Wikipedia talk:WikiProject Climate change. According to WP:CAN, it is perfectly acceptable to request comments on talk pages of related articles, so I would like to do that right now for two articles.
InformationToKnowledge (talk) 19:38, 11 December 2023 (UTC)