A potential superpower is a state or other polity that is speculated to be or have the potential to become a superpower, a state or supranational union that holds a dominant position characterized by the ability to exert influence or project power on a global scale through economic, military, technological, political, and/or cultural means.[1][2][3]
Currently, only the United States fulfills the criteria to be considered a superpower,[4] though this has been questioned in recent years.[5][6][7][8] At present only China,[9][10] the European Union,[11]India,[12][13] and Russia[14] have consistently been academically discussed as having the potential to attain superpower status.
The People's Republic of China has arguably received the most consistent coverage in the popular press of its potential superpower status,[15][16][17][18][19][20] and has been identified as a rising or emerging economic and military superpower by academics and other experts [21][22][23][24] with one summarising that "China certainly presents the most promising all-round profile" of a potential superpower, having high economic growth and large population.[25]
Great focus has been placed on China's growing economic activity on the global stage, in particular where it has been in competition with the United States. Examples of this have included the establishing and large-scale expansion in countries joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in contrast to traditional western institutions, along with the Belt and Road Initiative and China's role in the worldwide groundings of the Boeing 737 MAX.[26][27] It has also been argued that the future is likely to be of growing competition between two highly dominant countries in the form of the United States and China while others begin to lag behind economically.[28] Predictions have also been made of it overtaking the United States as the worlds largest economy in the 2020s.[29]
In contrast to this however there have been some who question how long this pace of economic growth could continue, with emphasis placed on China's very large but ageing and shrinking population of 1.4 billion, and long-term effects of pollution within the country that have accumulated during its fast pace of industrialisation, and also that while it continues to grow it has yet to prove attractive to skilled immigration from outside the country in the same way other countries like the United States have.[30][31][32][33]
There has been significant discussion around the ability for China to project power militarily. There has been argument that its ties with Russia and Central Asia could see the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation become the "NATO of the East".[34] It has also been argued that American absence from the Indo-Pacific region during the war on terror has allowed Chinese to actively challenge the United States as the pre-eminent power in the region.[35] Others have argued however that China still remains surrounded by potentially hostile nations and still lacks few friends or allies necessary for it to truly compete with the United States.[36]
The European Union (EU) has been called an emerging superpower or having already achieved that status, primarily to do with its economic power and political influence on the world stage. Factors highlighted have included its large population, the size and global reach of its combined economy, and the comparative unpopularity of US foreign policy.[37][38]
Despite lacking a cohesive military of its own, with military capabilities still the matter of individual member states, it has been argued that this is irrelevant in the 21st century and accordingly so when considering the status of the EU as a potential superpower.[39][40] Others however have questioned this interpretation, instead arguing that its lack of a unified military structure compared to the United States undermines the case that the EU is a potential superpower.[41][42]
The EU's lack of political integration has also come under conflicting views regarding its effect on superpower status. Some have argued that its more "low profile" diplomacy and emphasis on the rule of law represent a new kind of geopolitical influence that fulfills the political requirements for consideration of being a superpower rather than simply failing to meet them.[38][43] Others however argue that its lack of a centralised foreign or defence policy leaves its effectiveness uncertain when compared to that of a more politically integrated union of states such as the United States,[44][25] and it has even been argued that the EU remains as little more than an extension of a Europe reliant or dominated by the United States.[45]
The Republic of India has seen considerable coverage of its potential of becoming a superpower economically. Multiple opinions have pointed towards India's rapid economic development as a reason for it to be considered a potential superpower, in particular during the 2010s when it was predicted to outpace China's growth into the future.[46][47][48][49] Economists and researchers at Harvard University have projected India's 7% projected annual growth rate through 2024 would continue to put it ahead of China, making India the fastest growing economy in the world.[50][51] Over and above, India also has the advantage of having a very large and growing young population with a median age of 28, compared to China's median age of 39.[52]
While India's economic growth has continued, others have noted that inequality remains high in the country and that its potential for trading appears more limited compared to regional rivals such as China, and that despite India briefly becoming the world's fastest-growing economy in 2015 its growth declined below China's since 2018.[53][54][55][56][57]
It has also been argued that India's government and bureaucracy is also geared against emerging as a superpower, with it being argued that it "does very little collective thinking about its long-term foreign policy goals, since most of the strategic planning that takes place within the government happens on an individual level".[58]
The Russian Federation, since imperial times, has been considered both a great power and a regional power. Throughout most of the Soviet-era, the Soviet Union was one of the world's two superpowers. However, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation as its successor state lost its superpower status. In the early 21st century, Russia has been suggested as a potential candidate for resuming superpower status, while others have made the assertion that it is already a superpower.[59] In his 2005 publication entitled Russia in the 21st Century: The Prodigal Superpower, Steven Rosefielde, a professor of economics at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, predicted that Russia would emerge as a superpower before 2010 and augur another arms race. However, Rosefielde noted that such an end would come with tremendous sacrifice to global security and the Russian people's freedom.[60][page needed]Stephen Kinzer of The Boston Globe compared Russia's actions with its own neighbouring territories, to those of "any other superpower", taking Ukraine and Crimea as examples.[61]
Others however have put forward more pessimistic views towards Russia's ability to regain its superpower status. A mixed opinion has been offered by Matthew Fleischer of the Los Angeles Times, contending that severe climate change would be necessary for much of Russia's inherent natural resources to become viable.[62]
Several analysts commented on the fact that Russia showed signs of an aging and shrinking population. Fred Weir said that this severely constricts and limits Russia's potential to re-emerge as a central world power.[63] In 2011, British historian and professor Niall Ferguson also highlighted the negative effects of Russia's declining population, and suggested that Russia is on its way to "global irrelevance".[64] Russia has, however, shown a slight population growth since the late 2000s, partly due to immigration, quickly rising birth rates, slowly declining death rates.[65]
Russia's ability to project hard power was also questioned following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with the Russian military's poor performance prompting economist Paul Krugman to suggest Russia was little more than a "Potemkin Superpower".[66]
In the 1980s, some political and economic analysts predicted that Japan would eventually accede to superpower status, due to its large population, large gross domestic product and high economic growth at that time. Japan was expected to eventually surpass the economy of the United States.[73][74][75] However this prediction failed to materialise following a stock market crash and the resulting the Lost Decades, where Japan has suffered a flat to negative economic outlook,[76]while its population has been aging since the late 1980s before suffering real decline in total population starting in 2011.[16]
^Cordesman, Anthony (1 October 2019). "China and the United States: Cooperation, Competition, and/or Conflict". Center for Strategic and International Studies. Retrieved 22 March 2021. Seen from this perspective, such trends clearly that show that China already is a true economic superpower with growing resources and a steadily improving technology base. Its military structure is evolving to the point where China can compare or compete with the U.S. — at least in Asia.
^Silver, Laura; Devlin, Kat; Huang, Christine (5 December 2019). "China's Economic Growth Mostly Welcomed in Emerging Markets, but Neighbors Wary of Its Influence". Pew Research Center. Retrieved 22 March 2021. China has emerged as a global economic superpower in recent decades. It is not only the world's second largest economy and the largest exporter by value, but it has also been investing in overseas infrastructure and development at a rapid clip
^Lendon, Brad (5 March 2021). "China has built the world's largest navy. Now what's Beijing going to do with it?". CNN. Retrieved 22 March 2021. In 2018, China held 40% of the world's shipbuilding market by gross tons, according to United Nations figures cited by the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, well ahead of second place South Korea at 25%. Put in a historical perspective, China's shipbuilding numbers are staggering – dwarfing even the U.S. efforts of World War II. China built more ships in one year of peace time (2019) than the U.S. did in four of war (1941–1945).
^Lemahieu, Herve (29 May 2019). "Five big takeaways from the 2019 Asia Power Index". Lowy Institute. Retrieved 22 March 2021. China, the emerging superpower, netted the highest gains in overall power in 2019, ranking first in half of the eight Index measures. For the first time, China narrowly edged out the United States in the Index's assessment of economic resources. In absolute terms China's economy grew by more than the total size of Australia's economy in 2018. The world's largest trading nation has also paradoxically seen its GDP become less dependent on exports. This makes China less vulnerable to an escalating trade war than most other Asian economies.
^Colin S. Gray, "Document No. 1: The Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), 2006, and the Perils of the Twenty-First Century," Comparative Strategy, 25/2, (2006): p 143.
^Pritchett, Lant (2009). "A Review of Edward Luce's 'In Spite of the Gods: The Strange Rise of Modern India'". Journal of Economic Literature. 47 (3): 771–081. doi:10.1257/jel.47.3.771.
