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Turnout | 68.39% | ||||||||||||||||
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Duckworth: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% Kirk: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% No vote: | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Illinois |
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The 2016 United States Senate election in Illinois was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Illinois, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Prior to the election, incumbent senator Mark Kirk (R) was considered to be the most vulnerable senator among those seeking re-election in 2016[1][2] due to Illinois's heavy Democratic partisan balance; news networks and analysts expected a Democratic pickup.
Party primary elections were held on March 15, 2016. Kirk lost re-election to a second full term[3] to Tammy Duckworth, the U.S. representative from Illinois's 8th congressional district and a decorated combat veteran of the Iraq War. Duckworth became the first woman elected to the U.S. Senate from Illinois since fellow Democrat Carol Moseley Braun in 1992. Despite his loss, Kirk outperformed Trump in the concurrent presidential election by around 2 percent.
The primaries and general elections coincided with those for United States President and House, as well as those for state offices.
In 2010, Republican Mark Kirk was elected to the Senate for Illinois, defeating Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias by 59,220 votes out of more than 3.7 million votes cast.
Kirk suffered a severe stroke in January 2012 that kept him away from the Senate until January 2013.[4] In June 2013 he confirmed that he was "planning" to run for re-election,[5][6] but there was speculation that he might retire,[7] particularly in the wake of the departure of several of his senior staff.[8][9] Republican Bruce Rauner was elected governor in 2014, and a possible scenario was that Kirk would resign early, allowing Rauner to appoint another Republican as the replacement.[10] Potential replacements included U.S. Representatives Bob Dold, Adam Kinzinger, Aaron Schock, and Peter Roskam, State Senators Jason Barickman and Christine Radogno, hedge fund manager and founder and CEO of Citadel LLC Kenneth C. Griffin, and businesswoman Beth Christie.[7][9] In November 2014, Kirk reiterated that he was going to run for re-election.[3]
Kirk was identified by The Washington Post, The New York Times, Politico, The Huffington Post, Slate and Roll Call as one of the most vulnerable Republican senators up for re-election in 2016.[11][12][13][14][15][16]
See also: 2016 Illinois elections § Turnout |
For the primary election, turnout was 41.94%, with 3,215,334 votes cast.[17][18] For the general election, turnout was 68.39%, with 5,491,878 votes cast.[19][18]
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Kirk |
James Marter |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago Tribune | March 2–6, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.1% | 65% | 22% | 12% |
SIU Simon Institute | February 15–20, 2016 | 306 | ± 5.6% | 53% | 14% | 33% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Mark Kirk (incumbent) | 931,619 | 70.6 | |
Republican | James T. Marter | 388,571 | 29.4 | |
Total votes | 1,320,190 | 100.0 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tammy Duckworth |
Andrea Zopp |
Napoleon Harris |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SIU Simon Institute | February 15–20, 2016 | 422 | ± 4.7% | 52% | 6% | 4% | 37% |
Public Policy Polling | July 20–21, 2015 | 409 | ± 4.9% | 59% | 10% | — | 31% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Tammy Duckworth | 1,220,128 | 64.38% | |
Democratic | Andrea Zopp | 455,729 | 24.05% | |
Democratic | Napoleon Harris | 219,286 | 11.57% | |
Total votes | 1,859,257 | 100.00% |
On July 6, the Green Party candidate and the Libertarian Party candidate were announced as having made the ballot for November after no objections were filed against their petitions. However, objections against two others were filed, namely the Constitution Party candidate Chad Koppie, due to his name being on a petition slate with Constitution Party presidential candidate Darrell Castle, who turned in fewer than the required petitions needed,[84] and against Independent candidate Eric Conklin. Neither Koppie nor Conklin were likely to receive ballot access after a review of their petitions.[85][86]
Dates | Location | Kirk | Duckworth | Link |
---|---|---|---|---|
October 3, 2016 | Chicago, Illinois | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
October 27, 2016 | Springfield, Illinois | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
November 4, 2016 | Chicago, Illinois | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
Kirk had multiple factors working against him, as no Republican had won an Illinois US Senate race during a presidential election year since 1972, and he had made a number of gaffes during the campaign. He had exaggerated his Iraq War record on his campaign website,[88] and during a debate, Kirk made a racially charged remark about Duckworth's familial military background.[89] Additionally, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump was unpopular in Chicago and its suburbs, and Kirk refused to endorse or vote for him, instead writing in former United States Secretary of State Colin Powell.[90] Kirk also had a mostly liberal voting record in the Senate, favoring gay marriage, an assault weapons ban, and he had voted against defunding and repealing portions of Obamacare in 2015. Due to these factors, Kirk alienated the Democratic, Independent, and Republican voters whom he had previously won over in his 2010 campaign. Unusually, the normally Republican-leaning editorial board of the Chicago Tribune endorsed Duckworth, as they believed that the health problems that Kirk had suffered as a result of his stroke made him a less effective Senator.[91] This election had been cited as historic as both major party nominees had physical disabilities.[92]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[117] | Lean D (flip) | November 2, 2016 |
Inside Elections[118] | Lean D (flip) | November 3, 2016 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[119] | Likely D (flip) | November 7, 2016 |
Daily Kos[120] | Safe D (flip) | November 8, 2016 |
Real Clear Politics[121] | Likely D (flip) | November 7, 2016 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Kirk (R) |
Tammy Duckworth (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,823 | ± 4.6% | 39% | 56% | — | 5% |
SurveyMonkey | October 31 – November 6, 2016 | 1,505 | ± 4.6% | 39% | 56% | — | 5% |
SurveyMonkey | October 28 – November 3, 2016 | 1,120 | ± 4.6% | 40% | 54% | — | 6% |
SurveyMonkey | October 27 – November 2, 2016 | 997 | ± 4.6% | 40% | 55% | — | 5% |
SurveyMonkey | October 26 – November 1, 2016 | 911 | ± 4.6% | 39% | 55% | — | 6% |
SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 1,003 | ± 4.6% | 38% | 57% | — | 5% |
Emerson College | October 27–30, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.3% | 36% | 54% | 5% | 5% |
Loras College Archived November 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | October 26–27, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 34% | 42% | 6% | 18% |
The Illinois Poll - Victory Research | October 16–18, 2016 | 1,200 | ± 2.8% | 39% | 50% | 3% | 8% |
GS Strategy Group (R-Kirk) | October 4–5, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 37% | 41% | 6% | 16% |
Southern Illinois University | Sept 27–Oct 2, 2016 | 865 | ± 3.3% | 34% | 48% | 8% | 10% |
Normington, Petts and Associates (D) | September 27–29, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 37% | 46% | — | 17% |
Emerson College | September 19–20, 2016 | 700 | ± 3.6% | 39% | 41% | 11% | 9% |
Loras College Archived September 21, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | September 13–16, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 36% | 41% | — | 22% |
Normington, Petts and Associates (D) | August 1–4, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 37% | 44% | — | 19% |
The Illinois Poll - Victory Research | July 14–16, 2016 | 1,200 | ± 2.8% | 37% | 46% | 4% | 12% |
Normington, Petts and Associates (D) | July 11–14, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 38% | 40% | — | 22% |
Basswood Research (R) | July 11–12, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 42% | 40% | — | 18% |
GS Strategy Group (R-Kirk) | March 30–31, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 43% | — | 17% |
End Citizens United | September 10–14, 2015 | 948 | ± 3.2% | 41% | 45% | — | 14% |
Public Policy Polling | July 20–21, 2015 | 931 | ± 3.2% | 36% | 42% | — | 22% |
Ogden & Fry | June 23, 2015 | 598 | ± 4.1% | 27% | 44% | — | 29% |
We Ask America | December 18, 2014 | 1,003 | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | — | 9% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Kirk (R) |
Andrea Zopp (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | July 20–21, 2015 | 931 | ± 3.2% | 38% | 29% | — | 32% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Kirk (R) |
Lisa Madigan (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | November 22–25, 2013 | 557 | ± 4.2% | 41% | 41% | 19% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Kirk (R) |
Michelle Obama (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gravis Marketing | March 21–22, 2014 | 806 | ± 3.0% | 47% | 42% | 11% |
Public Policy Polling | November 26–28, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 40% | 51% | 9% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Kirk (R) |
Pat Quinn (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
We Ask America | December 18, 2014 | 1,003 | ± 3.0% | 55% | 36% | 9% |
The result was a landslide victory for Tammy Duckworth. Pre-election polling showed Kirk would be easily defeated by Duckworth, and the polls were proven right when Duckworth was declared the winner quickly after polls closed in Illinois. Duckworth performed extremely well in the heavily populated and strongly Democratic Cook County, home of Chicago. Duckworth also did well in Champaign, East St. Louis and Carbondale. Kirk did do well in rural parts of the state, but it was nowhere near enough to offset his weakness in the Chicago metropolitan area. The Chicago 'collar counties' — among them Kirk's home county of Lake County — previously voted for Kirk, but easily flipped to Duckworth. Duckworth was sworn in at 12:00 P.M. EST on January 3, 2017. The Libertarian and Green candidates polled well, winning three and two percent of the vote respectively.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Tammy Duckworth | 3,012,940 | 54.86% | +8.44% | |
Republican | Mark Kirk (incumbent) | 2,184,692 | 39.78% | -8.23% | |
Libertarian | Kenton McMillen | 175,988 | 3.21% | +0.85% | |
Green | Scott Summers | 117,619 | 2.14% | -1.04% | |
Write-in | 639 | 0.01% | -0.02% | ||
Total votes | 5,491,878 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic gain from Republican |
District | Duckworth | Kirk | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 74.4% | 21% | Bobby Rush |
2nd | 77.2% | 18.7% | Robin Kelly |
3rd | 55.6% | 38% | Dan Lipinski |
4th | 76.9% | 14.6% | Luis Gutierrez |
5th | 63.8% | 30.9% | Mike Quigley |
6th | 44.2% | 50.2% | Peter Roskam |
7th | 81.5% | 14.6% | Danny K. Davis |
8th | 55.9% | 38.2% | Tammy Duckworth |
Raja Krishnamoorthi | |||
9th | 63% | 32.5% | Jan Schakowsky |
10th | 53.3% | 42.2% | Robert Dold |
Brad Schneider | |||
11th | 56.6% | 37.3% | Bill Foster |
12th | 52% | 43.2% | Mike Bost |
13th | 46.7% | 47.2% | Rodney Davis |
14th | 42.5% | 50.8% | Randy Hultgren |
15th | 33% | 61.7% | John Shimkus |
16th | 39.3% | 53.9% | Adam Kinzinger |
17th | 47.7% | 46.3% | Cheri Bustos |
18th | 35% | 59.8% | Darin LaHood |