2016 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout67.34% Decrease[1]
 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,405,284 1,382,536
Percentage 47.22% 46.45%


President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Results by county with size showing number of votes
Treemap of the popular vote by county

The 2016 United States presidential election in Wisconsin was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election. Wisconsin voters chose 10 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting Republican Party nominee Donald Trump against Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton.

On April 5, 2016, in the presidential primaries, Wisconsin voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic and Republican Parties' respective nominees for president in an open primary; voters were allowed to vote in either party's primary regardless of their own party affiliation. Bernie Sanders prevailed in Wisconsin's Democratic primary, while Ted Cruz won Wisconsin's Republican primary.

In the general election, Donald Trump unexpectedly won Wisconsin by a narrow margin of 0.77%, with 47.22% of the total votes over the 46.45% of Hillary Clinton. Wisconsin emerged as the tipping-point state in the 2016 election.

Trump's victory in Wisconsin was attributed to overwhelming and underestimated support from white working-class citizens in the state's rural areas, a demographic group that had previously tended to vote for the Democratic candidate or did not vote at all.[2][3][4]

By winning Wisconsin, Trump became the first Republican candidate to win the state since Ronald Reagan in 1984. He also became the first Republican to win a majority in Iron County since 1920.[a] Wisconsin weighed in for this election as 2.9% more Republican than the nation-at-large, the first time it voted to the right of the nation since 2000.[5] Wisconsin was also one of eleven states to have voted twice for Bill Clinton which Hillary Clinton lost. This is the only election since 1960 in which the Democratic nominee won the popular vote without Wisconsin, and only the third since the Great Depression (the other being 1944).

Primaries

Wisconsin held its presidential primaries on April 5, 2016.

Democratic primary

Democratic presidential debate in Milwaukee, February 2016

Main article: 2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums

The Democratic Party held its sixth presidential debate on February 11, 2016, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, at the University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee. The debate was hosted by PBS NewsHour anchors Gwen Ifill and Judy Woodruff; it aired on PBS and was simulcast by CNN. Participants were Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.

Democratic primary, April 2016

Main article: 2016 Wisconsin Democratic presidential primary

Election results by county.
  Bernie Sanders
  Hillary Clinton
Wisconsin Democratic primary, April 5, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 570,192 56.59% 48 1 49
Hillary Clinton 433,739 43.05% 38 9 47
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 1,732 0.17%
Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente (write-in) 18 0.00%
Scattering 431 0.04%
Uncommitted 1,488 0.15% 0 0 0
Total 1,007,600 100% 86 10 96
Source: The Green Papers, Wisconsin Secretary of State

Republican primary

Presidential debate in Milwaukee, November 2015

Main article: 2016 Republican Party presidential debates and forums

The Republican Party held its fourth presidential debate on November 10, 2015, in Milwaukee, at the Milwaukee Theatre. Moderated by Neil Cavuto, Maria Bartiromo and Gerard Baker, the debate aired on the Fox Business Network and was sponsored by The Wall Street Journal. Eight candidates including Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich, and Rand Paul, participated in the primetime debate that was mostly focused on jobs, taxes, and the general health of the U.S. economy, as well as on domestic and international policy issues. The accompanying undercard debate featured Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Bobby Jindal, who ended his campaign a week after the debate.

Republican primary, April 2016

Main article: 2016 Wisconsin Republican presidential primary

Election results by county.
  Ted Cruz
  Donald Trump
Wisconsin Republican primary, April 5, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Ted Cruz 533,079 48.20% 36 0 36
Donald Trump 387,295 35.02% 6 0 6
John Kasich 155,902 14.10% 0 0 0
Marco Rubio (withdrawn) 10,591 0.96% 0 0 0
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 5,660 0.51% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 3,054 0.28% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 2,519 0.23% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 2,281 0.21% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 1,424 0.13% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,191 0.11% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 772 0.07% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 511 0.05% 0 0 0
Jim Gilmore (withdrawn) 245 0.02% 0 0 0
Victor Williams (write-in) 39 <0.01% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 1,105,944 100.00% 42 0 42
Source: The Green Papers

Green Party presidential preference convention

The Wisconsin Green Party held its presidential preference vote at its annual state convention in Madison, Wisconsin, on April 16.[6]

Wisconsin Green Party presidential convention, April 13, 2016[7]
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates
Jill Stein 7
William Kreml 1
Sedinam Moyowasifza-Curry
Darryl Cherney
Kent Mesplay
Total - 100.00% 8

General Election

Voting history

Wisconsin joined the Union in May 1848 and has participated in all elections from 1848 onwards. Since 1900, Wisconsin has been won by the Democrats and Republicans the same number of times.[8] Republican-turned-Progressive Robert M. La Follette Sr. carried the state in the 1924 presidential election.

The state voted for the Democratic nominee in the seven elections from 1988 to 2012, although sometimes by small margins, as it was in 1992, 2000, and 2004. There were other occasions, in contrast, when the margin of victory was substantial, such as 1996, 2008, and 2012.[8]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Los Angeles Times[9] Likely D November 6, 2016
CNN[10] Lean D November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[11] Lean D November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[12] Likely D November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[13] Tilt D November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] Likely D November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[15] Lean D November 8, 2016
Fox News[16] Lean D November 7, 2016

Polling

See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election § Wisconsin

Polls consistently showed Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leading by a margin of two to eight points in a four-way race.[17] The last poll published prior to the election was by SurveyMonkey and had Hillary Clinton with a two-point lead over Donald Trump.[17] Clinton never visited the state during the general election campaign, while Trump visited six times.[18] On election day, Trump ended up carrying the state by less than a point, a difference of an average of five to six points from most pre-election polling.[17] Prior to the election, many major news networks and professional and election analysts predicted the state as either lean or likely Democratic. Wisconsin's unexpected swing to Trump, along with two other Rust Belt states (Pennsylvania, Michigan), was the deciding factor in his win of 306–232 over Clinton, despite her garnering a plurality of the votes. Clinton referenced the loss in her memoir What Happened: "If there's one place where we were caught by surprise, it was Wisconsin. Polls showed us comfortably ahead, right up until the end. They also looked good for the Democrat running for Senate, Russ Feingold."[19] Interestingly, Trump did not win Wisconsin unlike the other states that he flipped by finding new voters, rather retaining more of Romney's vote, as the total votes cast in Wisconsin declined from 2012.

Results

2016 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican Donald Trump Mike Pence 1,405,284 47.22% 10
Democratic Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine 1,382,536 46.45% 0
Libertarian Gary Johnson William Weld 106,674 3.58% 0
Green Jill Stein Ajamu Baraka 31,072 1.04% 0
Constitution Darrell Castle Scott Bradley 12,162 0.41% 0
Independent (write-in votes) Evan McMullin Nathan Johnson 11,855 0.40% 0
Workers World Monica Moorehead Lamont Lilly 1,770 0.06% 0
Independent Rocky De La Fuente Michael Steinberg 1,502 0.05% 0
Others / Write-In Votes
-
-
23,295 0.78% 0
Totals 2,976,150 100.00% 10
Source: Wisconsin Elections Commission

By congressional districts

District results showing number of votes by size and candidate by color.[20]

Donald Trump won 6 of the 8 congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.[20]

District Trump Clinton others Representative
1st 52% 42% 6% Paul Ryan
2nd 29% 65% 6% Mark Pocan
3rd 49% 44% 7% Ron Kind
4th 22% 73% 5% Gwen Moore
5th 57% 37% 7% Jim Sensenbrenner
6th 55% 38% 7% Glenn Grothman
7th 58% 37% 6% Sean Duffy
8th 57% 37% 6% Mike Gallagher

Results by county

County Donald Trump
Republican
Hillary Clinton
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adams 5,966 58.89% 3,745 36.97% 419 4.14% 2,221 21.92% 10,130
Ashland 3,303 41.12% 4,226 52.61% 503 6.27% -923 -11.49% 8,032
Barron 13,614 60.05% 7,889 34.80% 1,168 5.15% 5,725 25.25% 22,671
Bayfield 4,124 42.90% 4,953 51.53% 535 5.57% -829 -8.63% 9,612
Brown 67,210 52.10% 53,382 41.38% 8,419 6.52% 13,828 10.72% 129,011
Buffalo 4,048 57.99% 2,525 36.17% 408 5.84% 1,523 21.82% 6,981
Burnett 5,410 61.91% 2,949 33.75% 379 4.34% 2,461 28.16% 8,738
Calumet 15,367 57.78% 9,642 36.25% 1,586 5.97% 5,725 21.53% 26,595
Chippewa 17,916 56.75% 11,887 37.66% 1,765 5.59% 6,029 19.09% 31,568
Clark 8,652 63.28% 4,221 30.87% 800 5.85% 4,431 32.41% 13,673
Columbia 14,163 47.69% 13,528 45.55% 2,007 6.76% 635 2.14% 29,698
Crawford 3,836 49.64% 3,419 44.24% 473 6.12% 417 5.40% 7,728
Dane 71,275 23.04% 217,697 70.37% 20,382 6.59% -146,422 -47.33% 309,354
Dodge 26,635 61.83% 13,968 32.42% 2,475 5.75% 12,667 29.41% 43,078
Door 8,580 48.77% 8,014 45.55% 998 5.68% 566 3.22% 17,592
Douglas 9,661 42.87% 11,357 50.39% 1,518 6.74% -1,696 -7.52% 22,536
Dunn 11,486 51.96% 9,034 40.87% 1,586 7.17% 2,452 11.09% 22,106
Eau Claire 23,331 42.40% 27,340 49.69% 4,354 7.91% -4,009 -7.29% 55,025
Florence 1,898 71.46% 665 25.04% 93 3.50% 1,233 46.42% 2,656
Fond du Lac 31,022 59.89% 17,387 33.57% 3,387 6.54% 13,635 26.32% 51,796
Forest 2,787 61.32% 1,579 34.74% 179 3.94% 1,208 26.58% 4,545
Grant 12,350 50.68% 10,051 41.25% 1,967 8.07% 2,289 9.43% 24,368
Green 8,693 45.79% 9,122 48.05% 1,170 6.16% -429 -2.26% 18,985
Green Lake 6,216 66.02% 2,693 28.60% 507 5.38% 3,523 37.42% 9,416
Iowa 4,809 39.18% 6,669 54.33% 797 6.49% -1,860 -15.15% 12,275
Iron 2,081 59.24% 1,275 36.29% 157 4.47% 806 22.95% 3,513
Jackson 4,906 52.94% 3,818 41.20% 543 5.86% 1,088 11.74% 9,267
Jefferson 23,417 54.32% 16,569 38.44% 3,123 7.24% 6,848 15.88% 43,109
Juneau 7,130 60.76% 4,073 34.71% 532 4.53% 3,057 26.05% 11,735
Kenosha 36,037 47.23% 35,799 46.92% 4,468 5.85% 238 0.31% 76,304
Kewaunee 6,618 61.47% 3,627 33.69% 522 4.84% 2,991 27.78% 10,767
La Crosse 26,378 41.43% 32,406 50.89% 4,890 7.68% -6,028 -9.46% 63,674
Lafayette 3,977 51.91% 3,288 42.91% 397 5.18% 689 9.00% 7,662
Langlade 6,478 63.60% 3,250 31.91% 458 4.49% 3,228 31.69% 10,186
Lincoln 8,401 57.10% 5,371 36.51% 940 6.39% 3,030 20.59% 14,712
Manitowoc 23,244 56.99% 14,538 35.64% 3,004 7.37% 8,706 21.35% 40,786
Marathon 39,014 56.12% 26,481 38.09% 4,023 5.79% 12,533 18.03% 69,518
Marinette 13,122 64.50% 6,409 31.50% 812 4.00% 6,713 33.00% 20,343
Marquette 4,709 59.68% 2,808 35.58% 374 4.74% 1,901 24.10% 7,891
Menominee 267 20.41% 1,002 76.61% 39 2.98% -735 -56.20% 1,308
Milwaukee 126,069 28.58% 288,822 65.48% 26,162 5.94% -162,753 -36.90% 441,053
Monroe 11,356 57.65% 7,052 35.80% 1,291 6.55% 4,354 21.85% 19,699
Oconto 13,345 66.04% 5,940 29.40% 921 4.56% 7,405 36.64% 20,206
Oneida 12,132 56.35% 8,109 37.66% 1,290 5.99% 4,023 18.69% 21,531
Outagamie 49,879 53.10% 38,068 40.53% 5,986 6.37% 11,811 12.57% 93,933
Ozaukee 30,464 55.84% 20,170 36.97% 3,926 7.19% 10,204 18.87% 54,560
Pepin 2,206 59.06% 1,344 35.98% 185 4.96% 862 23.08% 3,735
Pierce 11,272 52.73% 8,399 39.29% 1,705 7.98% 2,873 13.44% 21,376
Polk 13,810 60.72% 7,565 33.26% 1,370 6.02% 6,245 27.46% 22,745
Portage 17,305 44.84% 18,529 48.02% 2,755 7.14% -1,224 -3.18% 38,589
Price 4,559 60.24% 2,667 35.24% 342 4.52% 1,892 25.00% 7,568
Racine 46,681 49.50% 42,641 45.22% 4,980 5.28% 4,040 4.28% 94,302
Richland 4,013 49.73% 3,569 44.23% 487 6.04% 444 5.50% 8,069
Rock 31,493 41.40% 39,339 51.71% 5,242 6.89% -7,846 -10.31% 76,074
Rusk 4,564 64.39% 2,171 30.63% 353 4.98% 2,393 33.76% 7,088
Sauk 14,799 47.20% 14,690 46.85% 1,868 5.95% 109 0.35% 31,357
Sawyer 5,185 56.75% 3,503 38.34% 449 4.91% 1,682 18.41% 9,137
Shawano 12,769 64.46% 6,068 30.63% 973 4.91% 6,701 33.83% 19,810
Sheboygan 32,514 54.40% 23,000 38.48% 4,252 7.12% 9,514 15.92% 59,766
St. Croix 26,222 55.19% 17,482 36.80% 3,804 8.01% 8,740 18.39% 47,508
Taylor 6,579 69.46% 2,393 25.27% 499 5.27% 4,186 44.19% 9,471
Trempealeau 7,366 53.82% 5,636 41.18% 685 5.00% 1,730 12.64% 13,687
Vernon 7,004 49.06% 6,371 44.63% 900 6.31% 633 4.43% 14,275
Vilas 8,166 60.00% 4,770 35.05% 675 4.95% 3,396 24.95% 13,611
Walworth 28,863 56.16% 18,710 36.41% 3,818 7.43% 10,153 19.75% 51,391
Washburn 5,436 59.13% 3,282 35.70% 475 5.17% 2,154 23.43% 9,193
Washington 51,740 67.41% 20,852 27.17% 4,165 5.42% 30,888 40.24% 76,757
Waukesha 142,543 59.99% 79,224 33.34% 15,826 6.67% 63,319 26.65% 237,593
Waupaca 16,209 62.12% 8,451 32.39% 1,435 5.49% 7,758 29.73% 26,095
Waushara 7,667 63.50% 3,791 31.40% 616 5.10% 3,876 32.10% 12,074
Winnebago 43,445 49.86% 37,047 42.52% 6,643 7.62% 6,398 7.34% 87,135
Wood 21,498 56.85% 14,225 37.61% 2,095 5.54% 7,273 19.24% 37,818
Totals 1,405,284 47.22% 1,382,536 46.45% 188,330 6.33% 22,748 0.77% 2,976,150
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Recount

On November 25, 2016, with 90 minutes remaining on the deadline to petition for a recount to the state's electoral body, 2016 Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein filed for a recount of the election results in Wisconsin. She signaled she intended to file for similar recounts in the subsequent days in the states of Michigan and Pennsylvania.[21] On November 26, the Clinton campaign announced that they were joining the recount effort in Wisconsin.[22] Trump filed a lawsuit to halt the process, but it was rejected by a federal judge.[23]

The final result of the recount confirmed Trump's victory in Wisconsin, where he gained a net 131 votes.[24] Trump gained 837 additional votes, while Clinton gained 706 additional votes.[25]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Republicans Richard Nixon in 1972, George W. Bush in 2000, and Mitt Romney in 2012 also all won Iron County, however, they only received pluralities.

References

  1. ^ "Wisconsin Voter Turnout Statistics – Wisconsin Elections Commission". elections.wi.gov.
  2. ^ "White working-class voters flipped Wisconsin red". Retrieved March 10, 2017.
  3. ^ Cohn, Nate (November 9, 2016). "Why Trump Won: Working-Class Whites". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 10, 2017.
  4. ^ "NBC News Exit Poll in Wisconsin: Trump Energizes White Working Class". NBC News. Retrieved March 10, 2017.
  5. ^ "2016 National Popular Vote Tracker: Overall Vote".
  6. ^ "WIGP Spring Gathering & Presidential Nominating Convention Sat. 4/16 in Madison". Wisconsin Green Party. April 1, 2016. Retrieved April 15, 2016.
  7. ^ "Happy to report that I received a delegate in... – William P. Kreml". Retrieved April 20, 2016.
  8. ^ a b "Wisconsin Presidential Election 2016 Results LIVE Updates". usaelections-2016.com. Archived from the original on October 19, 2016. Retrieved October 17, 2016.
  9. ^ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  10. ^ Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  11. ^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  12. ^ "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  13. ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  14. ^ Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  15. ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  16. ^ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  17. ^ a b c 2016 Wisconsin election forecast (538), accessed October 20, 2020
  18. ^ Trump Out-Campaigned Clinton by 50 Percent in Key Battleground States in Final Stretch. NBC News. 13 November 2016.
  19. ^ Hillary Clinton was caught by surprise by Wisconsin loss, she says in her book, 'What Happened'. Journal Sentinel. 12 September 2017
  20. ^ a b PresidentContest RecountResult WardByWard withDistricts.xlsx (Microsoft Excel), Wisconsin Elections Commission, December 12, 2016
  21. ^ Adam Howard (November 25, 2016). "Election recount process to begin in Wisconsin after Green Party petition". nbcnews.com.
  22. ^ Scott, Eugene. "Clinton to join recount that Trump calls 'scam'". CNN. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. Retrieved November 27, 2016.
  23. ^ Presidential recount in Wauwatosa yields little change. Article by Chris Barlow from 13 December 2016 for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
  24. ^ Levy, Marc. "US Judge Rejects Green Party's Pennsylvania Recount Case". ABC News. Archived from the original on December 12, 2016. Retrieved December 12, 2016.
  25. ^ Matthew DeFour, Wisconsin State Journal. "Completed Wisconsin recount widens Donald Trump's lead by 131 votes". madison.com.

Further reading