Map of countries considered most and least vulnerable to adverse impacts of climate change on their grazing livestock.[1]
Multi-faceted impacts of climate change on livestock.[2]

There are numerous interlinked effects of climate change on livestock rearing. This activity is both heavily affected by and a substantial driver of anthropogenic climate change due to its greenhouse gas emissions. As of 2011, some 400 million people relied on livestock in some way to secure their livelihood.[3]: 746  The commercial value of this sector is estimated as close to $1 trillion.[4] As an outright end to human consumption of meat and/or animal products is not currently considered a realistic goal,[5] any comprehensive adaptation to effects of climate change must also consider livestock.

The observed adverse impacts on livestock production include increased heat stress in all but the coldest nations.[6][7] This causes both mass animal mortality during heatwaves, and the sublethal impacts, such as lower quantity of quality of products like milk, greater vulnerability to conditions like lameness or even impaired reproduction.[3] Another impact concerns reduced quantity or quality of animal feed, whether due to drought or as a secondary impact of CO2 fertilization effect. Difficulties with growing feed could reduce worldwide livestock headcounts by 7–10% by midcentury.[3]: 748  Animal parasites and vector-borne diseases are also spreading further than they had before, and the data indicating this is frequently of superior quality to one used to estimate impacts on the spread of human pathogens.[3]

While some areas which currently support livestock animals are expected to avoid "extreme heat stress" even with high warming at the end of the century, others may stop being suitable as early as midcentury.[3]: 750  In general, sub-Saharan Africa is considered to be the most vulnerable region to food security shocks caused by the impacts of climate change on their livestock, as over 180 million people across those nations are expected to see significant declines in suitability of their rangelands around midcentury.[3]: 748  On the other hand, Japan, the United States and nations in Europe are considered the least vulnerable. This is as much a product of pre-existing differences in human development index and other measures of national resilience and widely varying importance of pastoralism to the national diet as it is an outcome of direct impacts of climate on each country.[1]

Proposed adaptations to climate change in livestock production include improved cooling at animal shelters and changes to animal feed, though they are often costly or have only limited effects.[8] At the same time, livestock produces the majority of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and demands around 30% of agricultural fresh water needs, while only supplying 18% of the global calorie intake. Animal-derived food plays a larger role in meeting human protein needs, yet is still a minority of supply at 39%, with crops providing the rest.[3]: 746–747  Consequently, plans for limiting global warming to lower levels like 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) or 2 °C (3.6 °F) assume animal-derived food will play a lower role in the global diets relative to now.[9] As such, net zero transition plans now involve limits on total livestock headcounts (including reductions of already disproportionately large stocks in countries like Ireland),[10] and there have been calls for phasing out subsidies currently offered to livestock farmers in many places worldwide.[11]

Heat stress in livestock

Projected worldwide increases

Increased intensity of global climate change causes even greater increases of thermal heat index in Jamaican farm animals. High thermal heat index is one of the more widely used indicators of heat stress.[12]

In general, the preferred ambient temperature range for domestic animals is between 10 and 30 °C (50 and 86 °F).[3]: 747  Much like how climate change is expected to increase overall thermal comfort for humans living in the colder regions of the world,[6] livestock in those places would also benefit from warmer winters.[2] Across the entire world, however, increasing summertime temperatures as well as more frequent and intense heatwaves will have clearly negative effects, substantially elevating the risk of livestock suffering from heat stress. Under the climate change scenario of highest emissions and greatest warming, SSP5-8.5, "cattle,sheep, goats, pigs and poultry in the low latitudes will face 72–136 additional days per year of extreme stress from high heat and humidity".[3]: 717 

In Jamaica, considered representative of the Caribbean region, all livestock animals besides layer hens are already exposed to "very severe" heat stress in the present climate, with pigs being exposed to it at least once per day during the 5 summer and early autumn months, while ruminants and broilers only avoid daily exposure to very severe heat stress during the winter. it has been projected that even at 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) of global warming, "very severe" heat stress would become a daily event for ruminants and broilers. By 2 °C (3.6 °F), it would be felt for a longer duration, and extensive cooling systems would likely become a necessity for livestock production in the Caribbean. At 2.5 °C (4.5 °F), only layer hens would avoid daily exposure to "very severe" heat stress during the winter months.[12]

Studies of heat stress and livestock had historically focused on cattle, as they are often kept outdoors and so are immediately exposed to changes in climate. On the other hand, a little over 50% of all pork production and 70% of all poultry production worldwide originated from animals kept entirely in confined buildings even around 2006, and the raw numbers were expected to increase by 3–3.5 times for pigs, by 2–2.4 times for layer hens and 4.4–5 times for broilers. Historically, livestock in these conditions were considered less vulnerable to warming than the animals in outdoor areas due to inhabiting insulated buildings, where ventilation systems are used to control the climate and relieve the excess heat. However, in the historically cooler midlatitude regions, indoor temperatures were already higher than the outdoor temperatures even in summer, and as the increased heating exceeds these systems' specifications, confined animals are left more vulnerable to the heat than those kept outdoors.[13]

Health impacts of heat stress

Impacts of heat stress on livestock animals.[2]

Once the body temperature of livestock animals is 3–4 °C (5.4–7.2 °F) above normal, this soon leads to "heat stroke, heat exhaustion, heat syncope, heat cramps, and ultimately organ dysfunction". Livestock mortality rates are already known to be higher during the hottest months of the year, as well as during heatwaves. During the 2003 European heat wave, for instance, thousands of pigs, poultry, and rabbits died in the French regions of Brittany and Pays-de-la-Loire alone.[2]

Livestock can also suffer multiple sublethal impacts from heat stress, such as reduced milk production. Once the temperatures exceed 30 °C (86 °F), cattle, sheep, goats, pigs and chickens all begin to consume 3–5% less feed for each subsequent degree of temperature increase.[14] At the same time, they increase respiratory and sweating rates, and the combination of these responses can lead to metabolic disorders. One examples is ketosis, or the rapid accumulation of ketone bodies, caused by the animal's body rapidly catabolizing its fat stores to sustain itself.[2] Heat stress also causes an increase in antioxidant enzyme activities, which can result in an imbalance of oxidant and antioxidant molecules, otherwise known as oxidative stress. Feed supplementation with antioxidants like chromium can help address oxidative stress and prevent it from leading to other pathological conditions, but only in a limited way.[15]

The immune system is also known to be impaired in heat-stressed animals, rendering them more susceptible to various infections.[2] Similarly, vaccination of livestock is less effective when they suffer from heat stress.[16] So far, heat stress had been estimated by researchers using inconsistent definitions, and current livestock models have limited correlation with experimental data.[17] Notably, since livestock like cows spend much of their day laying down, comprehensive heat stress estimation needs to take account of ground temperature as well,[18] but the first model to do so was only published in 2021, and it still tends to systematically overestimate body temperature while underestimating breathing rate.[19]

Economic impact and adaptation

This diagram shows a proposed design of a heat exchanger for indoor rearing facilities, whose installation would help to protect livestock from heat stress.[8]

In the United States alone, economic losses caused by heat stress in livestock were already valued at between $1.69 and $2.36 billion in 2003, with the spread reflecting different assumptions about the effectiveness of contemporary adaptation measures.[20] Nevertheless, some reviews consider the United States to be the least vulnerable nation to food security shocks caused by the negative impacts of climate change on livestock, as while it rates in the middle of the pack in terms of exposure of its livestock and the societal sensitivity to that exposure, it has the highest adaptive capacity in the world due to its GDP and development status. Japan and the nations in Europe have low vulnerability for similar reasons.

Meanwhile the exposure of Mongolian livestock to climate change is not very different from that of American livestock, but the enormous importance of pastoralism in Mongolian society and its limited capacity to adapt still renders it one of the most vulnerable countries in the world. Nations in sub-Saharan Africa generally suffer from high exposure, low adaptive capacity and high sensitivity due to the importance of livestock in their societies, with these factors particularly acute in Eastern African countries,[1] where between 4 and 19% of livestock-producing areas are expected to suffer "significantly" more "dangerous" heat stress events after 2070, depending on the climate change scenario.[21] There is high confidence that under the most intense scenario, SSP5-8.5, the net amount of land which can support livestock will decline by 2050 as heat stress would already become unbearable for them in some locations.[3]: 748 

A range of climate change adaptation measures can help to protect livestock, such as increasing access to drinking water, creating better shelters for animals kept outdoors and improving air circulation in the existing indoor facilities.[22] Installing specialized cooling systems is the most capital-intensive intervention, but it may be able to completely counteract the impact of future warming.[8]

Difficulties in feeding livestock

Climatic impacts on feed and forage

Overgrazed vs. stable pasture in Fall River County, South Dakota.

Livestock is fed either by letting them directly graze forage from pasture, or by growing crops like corn or soybeans for fodder. Both are highly important; the majority of soybeans are grown for fodder, while a third of croplands worldwide are devoted to forage, which feeds around 1.5 billion cattle, 0.21 billion buffalo, 1.2 billion sheep and 1.02 billion goats.[23] Insufficient supply or quality of either leads to a decrease in growth and reproductive efficiency in domestic animals, especially in conjunction with the other stressors, and at worst, may increase mortality due to starvation.[24] This is a particularly acute issue when livestock herds are already of an unsustainable size. For instance, two-thirds of animal feed requirements in Iran come from its rangelands, which cover around 52% of its land area, yet only 10% have forage quality above "medium" or "poor". Consequently, Iranian rangelands support over twice their sustainable capacity, and this leads to mass mortality in poor years, such as when around 800,000 goats and sheep in Iran perished due to the severe 1999 − 2001 drought. This was then exceeded by millions of animal deaths during the 2007–2008 drought.[25]

Climate change can impact livestock animals' food supply in multiple ways. First, the direct effects of temperature increase affect both fodder cultivation and productivity of rangelands, albeit in variable ways. On a global scale, there is confidence that with all else equal, every single 1 °C (1.8 °F) of warming would decrease the yields of the four most important crops by between ~3% for rice and soybean (a crop grown primarily for animal feed) and up to 6% and 7.4% for wheat and corn respectively.[26] This global decline is dominated by negative impacts in already warm countries, since agriculture in cooler countries is expected to benefit from warming.[27] However, this does not include the impact of changes in water availability, which can be far more important than the warming, whether for pasture species like alfalfa and tall fescue,[28] or for crops. Some studies suggest that high water availability through irrigation "decouples" crops from climate as they become much less susceptible to extreme weather events,[29] but the feasibility of this approach is obviously limited by the region's overall water security, especially once the warming reaches levels of 2 or 3 °C (3.6 or 5.4 °F).[30]: 664 

Worldwide production of alfalfa, an important fodder plant.

While climate change increases precipitation on average, regional changes are more variable, and variability alone adversely impacts "animal fertility, mortality, and herd recovery, reducing livestock keepers' resilience".[3]: 717  In Zimbabwe, uncertainty about rainfall under different climate change scenarios could mean the difference between 20% and 100% of farmers negatively affected by 2070, while the average livestock revenue could potentially increase by 6%, yet may also plunge by as much as 43%.[31]

Many places are likely to see increased drought, which would affect both the crops and the pastural land.[32] For instance, in the Mediterranean region, forage yields have already declined by 52.8% during drought years.[23] Drought can also affect freshwater sources used by people and livestock alike: 2019 drought in Southwestern China caused around 824,000 people and 566,000 livestock to experience severe water scarcity, as over 100 rivers and 180 reservoirs dried out. That event was considered between 1.4 and 6 times more likely to happen as the result of climate change. In the mountain regions, glacier melt can also affect pasture, as it first floods the land, and then retreats entirely.[3]: 724 

Atmospheric CO2 and livestock forage

The abundance of fodder and forage strongly benefits from the CO2 fertilization effect, which boosts growth and makes their water usage more efficient, potentially counteracting the effects of drought in certain places (i.e. many of the United States' rangelands).[33] At the same time, it also causes plants' nutritional value to decline,[34][35] with some forage grasses potentially becoming useless to livestock under certain conditions (i.e. during autumn, when their nutrition is already poor).[36] On mixed grass prairies, experimental local warming of 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) during the day and of 3 °C (5.4 °F) at night has a relatively minor effect in comparison to increasing CO2 levels to 600 ppm (nearly 50% larger than the ~420 ppm levels of 2023) during the same experiment. 96% of overall forage growth on such prairies stems from just six plant species, and they become 38% more productive largely in response to the increased CO2 levels, yet their nutritious value to livestock also declines by 13% due to the same, as they grow less edible tissue and become harder to digest.[37]

Warming and water deficit also affect nutritional value, sometimes synergistically. For instance, Guinea grass, an important forage plant in the tropics, already gains more inedible lignin in response to water deficit (+43%), as well as in response to warming (+25%). Its lignin content increases the least in response to both stressors (+17%),[38] yet elevated CO2 further reduces its nutritional value, even as it makes the plant less susceptible to water stress.[39] Similar response was observed in Stylosanthes capilata, another important forage species in the tropics, which is likely to become more prevalent with warming, yet which may require irrigation to avoid substantial losses in nutritional value.[40][41]

Global impacts of lowered livestock nutrition

Impacts of one possible scenario of climate change on agricultural costs between 2005 and 2045, under a range of assumptions about the role of CO2 fertilization effect and the effectiveness of adaptation strategies.[42]

Altogether, around 10% of current global pasture is expected to be threatened by water scarcity caused by climate change, as early as 2050.[30]: 614  By 2100, 30% of the current combined crop and livestock areas would become climatically unsuitable under the warmest scenario SSP5-8.5, as opposed to 8% under the low-warming SSP1-2.6, although neither figure accounts for the potential shift of production to other areas.[3]: 717  If 2 °C (3.6 °F) of warming occurs by 2050, then 7–10% of the current livestock are predicted to be lost primarily due to insufficient feed supply, amounting to $10–13 billion in lost value.[3]: 748 

Similarly, an older study found that if 1.1 °C (2.0 °F) of warming occurs between 2005 and 2045 (rate comparable to hitting 2 °C (3.6 °F) by 2050), then under the current livestock management paradigm, global agricultural costs would increase by 3% (an estimated $145 billion), with the impact concentrated in pure pasturalist systems. At the same time, mixed crop-livestock systems already produced over 90% of the global milk supply as of 2013, as well as 80% of ruminant meat,[43] yet they would bear the minority of the costs, and switching all pure livestock systems to mixed crop-livestock would decrease global agricultural costs from 3% to 0.3%, while switching half of those systems would reduce costs to 0.8%. The full shift would also reduce future projected deforestation in the tropics by up to 76 million ha.[42]

Pathogens and parasites

See also: Climate change and infectious diseases

While climate-induced heat stress can directly reduce domestic animals' immunity against all diseases,[2] climatic factors also impact the distribution of many livestock pathogens themselves. For instance, Rift Valley fever outbreaks in East Africa are known to be more intense during the times of drought or when there is an El Nino.[14] Another example is that of helminths in Europe which have now spread further towards the poles, with higher survival rate and higher reproductive capacity (fecundity).[44]: 231  Detailed long-term records of both livestock diseases and various agricultural interventions in Europe mean that demonstrating the role of climate change in the increased helminth burden in livestock is actually easier than attributing the impact of climate change on diseases which affect humans.[44]: 231 

A sheep infected with bluetongue virus.

Temperature increases are also likely to benefit Culicoides imicola, a species of midge which spreads bluetongue virus.[14] Without a significant improvement in epidemiological control measures, what is currently considered an once-in-20-years outbreak of bluetongue would occur as frequently as once in five or seven years by midcentury under all but the most optimistic warming scenario. Rift Valley Fever outbreaks in East African livestock are also expected to increase.[3]: 747  Ixodes ricinus, a tick which spreads pathogens like Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis, is predicted to become 5–7% more prevalent on livestock farms in Great Britain, depending on the extent of future climate change.[45]

The impacts of climate change on leptospirosis are more complicated: its outbreaks are likely to worsen wherever flood risk increases,[14] yet the increasing temperatures are projected to reduce its overall incidence in the Southeast Asia, particularly under the high-warming scenarios.[46] Tsetse flies, the hosts of trypanosoma parasites, already appear to be losing habitat and thus affect a smaller area than before.[3]: 747 

By type of livestock


Under high warming, there will be a global decline in area suitable for shellfish aquaculture after 2060. It will be preceded by regional declines in Asia.[3]: 725  Farmed fish can be affected by heat stress as much as any other animal, and there has already been research on its effects and ways to mitigate it in species like tambaqui or blunt snout bream.[47][48]


Along with camels, goats are more resilient to drought than cattle. In Southeastern Ethiopia, some of the cattle pastoralists are already switching to goats and camels.[49]


Various pathologies which can be caused by heat stress, many specific to cattle.[2]

As of 2009, there were 1.2 billion cattle in the world, with around 82% in the developing countries;[50] the totals only increased since then, with the 2021 figure at 1.53 billion.[51] As of 2020, it was found that in the current Eastern Mediterranean climate, cattle experience mild heat stress inside unadapted stalls for nearly half a year (159 days), while moderate heat stress is felt indoors and outdoors during May, June, July, August, September, and October. Additionally, June and August are the months where cattle are exposed to severe heat stress outside, which is mitigated to moderate heat stress indoors.[52] Even mild heat stress can reduce the yield of cow milk: research in Sweden found that average daily temperatures of 20–25 °C (68–77 °F) reduce daily milk yield per cow by 200 g (0.44 lb), with the loss reaching 540 g (1.19 lb) for 25–30 °C (77–86 °F).[53] Research in a humid tropical climate describes a more linear relationship, with every unit of heat stress reducing yield by 2.13%.[54] In the intensive farming systems, daily milk yield per cow declines by 1.8 kg (4.0 lb) during severe heat stress. In organic farming systems, the effect of heat stress on milk yields is limited, but milk quality suffers substantially, with lower fat and protein content.[55] In China, daily milk production per cow is already lower than the average by between 0.7 and 4 kg (1.5 and 8.8 lb) in July (the hottest month of the year), and by 2070, it may decline by up to 50% (or 7.2 kg (16 lb)) due to climate change.[56] Some researchers suggest that the already recorded stagnation of dairy production in both China and West Africa can attributed to persistent increases in heat stress.[3]: 747 

Heatwaves can also reduce milk yield, with particularly acute impacts if the heatwave lasts for four or more days, as at that point the cow's thermoregulation capacity is usually exhausted, and its core body temperature starts to increase.[57] At worst, heatwaves can lead to mass mortality: in July 1995, over 4,000 cattle in the mid-central United States heatwave, and in 1999, over 5,000 cattle died during a heatwave in northeastern Nebraska.[24] Studies suggest that Brahman cattle and its cross-breeds are more resistant to heat stress than the regular bos taurus breeds,[50] but it is considered unlikely that even more heat-resistant cattle can be bred at a sufficient rate to keep up with the expected warming.[58] Further, both male and female cattle can have their reproduction impaired by heat stress. In males, severe heat can affect both spermatogenesis and the stored spermatozoa. It may take up to eight weeks for sperm to become viable again. In females, heat stress negatively affects conception rates as it impairs corpus luteum and thus ovarian function and oocyte quality. Even after conception, a pregnancy is less likely to be carried to term due to reduced endometrial function and uterine blood flow, leading to increased embryonic mortality and early fetal loss.[24] Calves born to heat-stressed cows typically have a below-average weight, and their weight and height remains below average even by the time they reach their first year, due to permanent changes in their metabolism.[59] Heat-stressed cattle have also displayed reduced albumin secretion and liver enzyme activity. This is attributed to accelerated breakdown of adipose tissue by the liver, causing lipidosis.[2]

Serous exudate from udder in E. coli mastitis in cow (left), in comparison to normal milk (right).

Cattle are suspectible to some specific heat stress risks, such as ruminal acidosis. Cattle eat less when they experience acute heat stress during hottest parts of the day, only to compensate when it is cooler, and this disbalance soon causes acidosis, which can lead to laminitis. Additionally, one of the ways cattle can attempt to deal with higher temperatures is by panting more often, which rapidly decreases carbon dioxide concentrations and increases pH. To avoid respiratory alkalosis, cattle are forced to shed bicarbonate through urination, and this comes at the expense of rumen buffering. These two pathologies can both develop into lameness, defined as "any foot abnormality that causes an animal to change the way that it walks". This effect can occur "weeks to months" after severe heat stress exposure, alongside sore ulcers and white line disease.[2] Another specific risk is mastitis, normally caused by either an injury to cow's udder, or "immune response to bacterial invasion of the teat canal."[2] Bovine neutrophil function is impaired at higher temperatures, leaving mammary glands more vulnerable to infection,[60] and mastitis is already known to be more prevalent during the summer months, so there is an expectation this would worsen with continued climate change.[2]

One of the vectors of bacteria which cause mastitis are Calliphora blowflies, whose numbers are predicted to increase with continued warming, especially in the temperate countries like the United Kingdom.[61] Rhipicephalus microplus, a tick which primarily parasitises cattle, could become established in the currently temperate countries once their autumns and winters become warmer by about 2–2.75 °C (3.60–4.95 °F).[62] On the other hand, the brown stomach worm, Ostertagia ostertagi, is predicted to become much less prevalent in cattle as the warming progresses.[63]

By 2017, it was already reported that farmers in Nepal kept fewer cattle due to the losses imposed by a longer hot season.[3]: 747  Cow-calf ranches in Southeast Wyoming are expected to suffer greater losses in the future as the hydrological cycle becomes more variable and affects forage growth. Even though the annual mean precipitation is not expected to change much, there will be more unusually dry years as well as unusually wet years, and the negatives will outweigh the positives. Keeping smaller herds to be more flexible when dry years hit was suggested as an adaptation strategy.[64] Since more variable and therefore less predictable precipitation is one of the well-established effects of climate change on the water cycle,[65]: 85  similar patterns were later established across the rest of the United States,[66] and then globally.[67]

All but two or three of the top 10 beef-producing countries are likely to see lower production with greater warming.[7]

As of 2022, it has been suggested that every additional millimeter of annual precipitation increases beef production by 2.1% in the tropical countries and reduces it by 1.9% in temperate ones, yet the effects of warming are much larger. Under SSP3-7.0, a scenario of significant warming and very low adaptation, every additional 1 °C (1.8 °F) would decrease global beef production by 9.7%, mainly because of its impact on tropical and poor countries. In the countries which can afford adaptation measures, production would fall by around 4%, but by 27% in those which cannot.[68] In 2024, another study suggested that the impacts would be milder - a 1% decrease per every additional 1 °C (1.8 °F) in low-income countries and 0.2% in high-income ones, and a 3.2% global decline in beef production by 2100 under SSP3-7.0.[7] The same paper suggests that out of the top 10 beef-producing countries (Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, France, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey and the U.S.), only China, Russia and the U.S. would see overall production gains with increased warming, with the rest experiencing declines.[7] Other research suggests that east and south of Argentina may become more suitable to cattle ranching due to climate-driven shifts in rainfall, but a shift to Zebu breeds would likely be needed to minimize the impact of warming.[69]


Diagram of heat regulation in horses.[70]

As of 2019, there are around 17 million horses in the world. Healthy body temperature for adult horses is in the range between 37.5 and 38.5 °C (99.5 and 101.3 °F), which they can maintain while ambient temperatures are between 5 and 25 °C (41 and 77 °F). However, strenuous exercise increases core body temperature by 1 °C (1.8 °F)/minute, as 80% of the energy used by equine muscles is released as heat. Along with bovines and primates, equines are the only animal group which use sweating as their primary method of thermoregulation: in fact, it can account for up to 70% of their heat loss, and horses sweat three times more than humans while undergoing comparably strenuous physical activity. Unlike humans, this sweat is created not by eccrine glands but by apocrine glands.[71] In hot conditions, horses during three hours of moderate-intersity exercise can lose 30 to 35 L of water and 100g of sodium, 198 g of choloride and 45 g of potassium.[71] In another difference from humans, their sweat is hypertonic, and contains a protein called latherin,[72] which enables it to spread across their body easier, and to foam, rather than to drip off. These adaptations are partly to compensate for their lower body surface-to-mass ratio, which makes it more difficult for horses to passively radiate heat. Yet, prolonged exposure to very hot and/or humid conditions will lead to consequences such as anhidrosis, heat stroke, or brain damage, potentially culminating in death if not addressed with measures like cold water applications. Additionally, around 10% of incidents associated with horse transport have been attributed to heat stress. These issues are expected to worsen in the future.[70]

African horse sickness (AHS) is a viral illness with a mortality close to 90% in horses, and 50% in mules. A midge, Culicoides imicola, is the primary vector of AHS, and its spread is expected to benefit from climate change.[73] The spillover of Hendra virus from its flying fox hosts to horses is also likely to increase, as future warming would expand the hosts' geographic range. It has been estimated that under the "moderate" and high climate change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the number of threatened horses would increase by 110,000 and 165,000, respectively, or by 175 and 260%.[74]

Goats and sheep

Sheep are known for tolerating heat better than cattle.

Goats and sheep are often collectively described as small ruminants, and tend to be studied together rather than separately.[75] Both of them are known to be less affected by climate change than cattle,[3]: 747  with goats in particular considered one the most climate-resilient domestic animals, being second only to camels.[76] In Southeastern Ethiopia, some of the cattle pastoralists are already switching to goats and camels.[49]

Even so, the 2007–2008 drought in Iran had already resulted in the country's sheep population declining by nearly 4 million – from 53.8 million in 2007 to 50 million in 2008, while the goat population declined from 25.5 million in 2007 to 22.3 million in 2008.[25] Some researchers expect climate change to drive genetic selection towards more heat- and drought-adapted breeds of sheep.[77] Notably, heat-adapted sheep can be of both wool and hair breeds, in spite of the popular perception that hair breeds are always more resistant to heat stress.[78]

Parasitic worms Haemonchus contortus and Teladorsagia circumcincta are predicted to spread more easily amongst small ruminants as the winters become milder due to future warming, although in some places this is counteracted by summers getting hotter than their preferred temperature.[63] Earlier, similar effects have been observed with two other parasitic worms, Parelaphostrongylus odocoilei and Protostrongylus stilesi, which have already been able to reproduce for a longer period inside sheep due to milder temperatures in the sub-Arctic.[79]


Pig farm in Taiwan, in 2020.

For pigs, heat stress varies depending on their age and size. Young and growing pigs with the average body mass of 30 kg (66 lb) can tolerate temperatures up to 24 °C (75 °F) before starting to experience any heat stress, but after they have grown and are fattened to about 120 kg (260 lb), at which point they are considered ready for slaughter, their tolerance drops to just 20 °C (68 °F).[8]

One paper estimated that in Austria, at an intensive farming facility used to fatten up about 1800 growing pigs at a time, the already observed warming between 1981 and 2017 would have increased relative annual heat stress by between 0.9 and 6.4% per year. It is considered representative of other such facilities in Central Europe.[13]

A follow-up paper considered the impact of several adaptation measures. Installing a ground-coupled heat exchanger was the most effective intervention at addressing heat stress, reducing it by 90 to 100%. Two other cooling systems also showed substantial effectiveness: evaporative cooler pads made of wet cellulose reduced heat stress by 74 to 92%, although they also risked increasing wet bulb temperature stress as they necessarily moistened the air. Combining such pads with regenerative heat exchangers eliminated this issue, but also increased costs and reduced the effectiveness of the system to between 61% and 86%. All three interventions were considered capable of completely buffering the future impact of climate change on heat stress over at least the next three decades, but installing them requires substantial start-up investments, and their impact on commercial viability of the facilities is unclear. Other interventions were considered unable to fully buffer the impact of warming, but they were also cheaper and simpler by comparison. They include doubling the ventilation capacity, and having the pigs rest during the day while feeding them at night when it is cooler: such a 10-hour shift would require that the facility only uses artificial light and switch to predominantly night shift work. Similarly, stocking fewer pigs per facility is the absolute simplest intervention, yet it has the lowest effectiveness, and necessarily reduces profitability.[8]


Photo of an egg farm in New England, taken around 2009.

It is believed that the thermal comfort zone for poultry is in the 18–25 °C (64–77 °F) range. Some papers describe 26–35 °C (79–95 °F) as the "critical zone" for heat stress, but others report that due to acclimatization, birds in the tropical countries do not begin to experience heat stress until 32 °C (90 °F). There is wider agreement that temperatures greater than 35 °C (95 °F) and 47 °C (117 °F) form "upper critical" and lethal zones, respectively.[80] Average daily temperatures of around 33 °C (91 °F) are known to interfere with feeding in both broilers and egg hens, as well as lower their immune response, with outcomes such as reduced weight gain/egg production or greater incidence of salmonella infections, footpad dermatitis or meningitis. Persistent heat stress leads to oxidative stress in tissues, and harvested white meat ends up with a lower proportion of essential compounds like vitamin E, lutein and zeaxanthin, yet an increase in glucose and cholesterol. Multiple studies show that dietary supplementation with chromium can help to relieve these issues due to its antioxidative properties, particularly in combination with zinc or herbs like wood sorrel.[81][82][83][84][85][86] Resveratrol is another popular antioxidant administered to poultry for these reasons.[87] Though the effect of supplementation is limited, it is much cheaper than interventions to improve cooling or simply stock fewer birds, and so remains popular.[88] While the majority of literature on poultry heat stress and dietary supplementation focuses on chickens, similar findings were seen in Japanese quails, which eat less and gain less weight, suffer reduced fertility and hatch eggs of worse quality under heat stress, and also seem to benefit from mineral supplementation.[89][90][91]

Around 2003, it was estimated that the poultry industry in the United States already lost up to $165 million annually due to heat stress at the time.[80] One paper estimated that if global warming reaches 2.5 °C (4.5 °F), then the cost of rearing broilers in Brazil increases by 35.8% at the least modernized farms and by 42.3% at farms with the medium level of technology used in livestock housing, while they increase the least at farms with the most advanced cooling technologies. On the contrary, if the warming is kept to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F), costs at moderately modernized farms increase the least, by 12.5%, followed by the most modernized farms with a 19.9% increase, and the least technological farms seeing the greatest increase.[92]


By mid-2010s, indigenous people of the Arctic have already observed reindeer breeding less and surviving winters less often, as warmer temperatures benefit biting insects and result in more intense and persistent swarm attacks. They also become more susceptible to parasites spread by such insects, and as the Arctic becomes warmer and more accessible to invasive species, it is anticipated that they will come in contact with pests and pathogens they have not encountered historically.[44]: 233 

Greenhouse gas emissions from livestock activities

Livestock produces the majority of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and demands around 30% of agricultural fresh water needs, while only supplying 18% of the global calorie intake. Animal-derived food plays a larger role in meeting human protein needs, yet is still a minority of supply at 39%, with crops providing the rest.[93]: 746–747 

Out of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, only SSP1 offers any realistic possibility of meeting the 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) target.[94] Together with measures like a massive deployment of green technology, this pathway assumes animal-derived food will play a lower role in the global diets relative to now.[95] As a result, there have been calls for phasing out subsidies currently offered to livestock farmers in many places worldwide,[96] and net zero transition plans now involve limits on total livestock headcounts, including substantial reductions of existing stocks in some countries with extensive animal agriculture sectors like Ireland.[97] Yet, an outright end to human consumption of meat and/or animal products is not currently considered a realistic goal.[98] Therefore, any comprehensive plan of adaptation to effects of climate change, particularly the present and future effects of climate change on agriculture, must also consider livestock.

Livestock activities also contribute disproportionately to land-use effects, since crops such as corn and alfalfa are cultivated in order to feed the animals.

In 2010, enteric fermentation accounted for 43% of the total greenhouse gas emissions from all agricultural activity in the world.[99] The meat from ruminants has a higher carbon equivalent footprint than other meats or vegetarian sources of protein based on a global meta-analysis of lifecycle assessment studies.[100] Small ruminants such as sheep and goats contribute approximately 475 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent to GHG emissions, which constitutes around 6.5% of world agriculture sector emissions.[101] Methane production by animals, principally ruminants, makes up an estimated 15-20% global production of methane.[102][103]

See also


  1. ^ a b c Godber, Olivia F.; Wall, Richard (1 April 2014). "Livestock and food security: vulnerability to population growth and climate change". Global Change Biology. 20 (10): 3092–3102. Bibcode:2014GCBio..20.3092G. doi:10.1111/gcb.12589. PMC 4282280. PMID 24692268.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Lacetera, Nicola (2019-01-03). "Impact of climate change on animal health and welfare". Animal Frontiers. 9 (1): 26–31. doi:10.1093/af/vfy030. ISSN 2160-6056. PMC 6951873. PMID 32002236.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t Kerr R.B., Hasegawa T., Lasco R., Bhatt I., Deryng D., Farrell A., Gurney-Smith H., Ju H., Lluch-Cota S., Meza F., Nelson G., Neufeldt H., Thornton P., 2022: Chapter 5: Food, Fibre and Other Ecosystem Products. In Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke,V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, US, pp. 1457–1579 |doi=10.1017/9781009325844.012
  4. ^ "FAOStat". Archived from the original on 2016-10-20. Retrieved 12 June 2023.
  5. ^ Rasmussen, Laura Vang; Hall, Charlotte; Vansant, Emilie C.; Braber, Bowie den; Olesen, Rasmus Skov (17 September 2021). "Rethinking the approach of a global shift toward plant-based diets". One Earth. 4 (9): 1201–1204. Bibcode:2021OEart...4.1201R. doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2021.08.018. S2CID 239376124.
  6. ^ a b Zhang, Jintao; You, Qinglong; Ren, Guoyu; Ullah, Safi; Normatov, Inom; Chen, Deliang (24 January 2023). "Inequality of Global Thermal Comfort Conditions Changes in a Warmer World". Earth's Future. 11 (2): e2022EF003109. Bibcode:2023EaFut..1103109Z. doi:10.1029/2022EF003109. S2CID 256256647.
  7. ^ a b c d Liu, Weihang; Zhou, Junxiong; Ma, Yuchi; Chen, Shuo; Luo, Yuchuan (3 February 2024). "Unequal impact of climate warming on meat yields of global cattle farming". Communications Earth and Environment. 5. doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01232-x.
  8. ^ a b c d e Schauberger, Günther; Mikovits, Christian; Zollitsch, Werner; Hörtenhuber, Stefan J.; Baumgartner, Johannes; Niebuhr, Knut; Piringer, Martin; Knauder, Werner; Anders, Ivonne; Andre, Konrad; Hennig-Pauka, Isabel; Schönhart, Martin (22 January 2019). "Global warming impact on confined livestock in buildings: efficacy of adaptation measures to reduce heat stress for growing-fattening pigs". Climatic Change. 156 (4): 567–587. Bibcode:2019ClCh..156..567S. doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02525-3. S2CID 201103432.
  9. ^ Roth, Sabrina K.; Hader, John D.; Domercq, Prado; Sobek, Anna; MacLeod, Matthew (22 May 2023). "Scenario-based modelling of changes in chemical intake fraction in Sweden and the Baltic Sea under global change". Science of the Total Environment. 888: 2329–2340. Bibcode:2023ScTEn.888p4247R. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164247. PMID 37196966. S2CID 258751271.
  10. ^ Lisa O'Carroll (3 November 2021). "Ireland would need to cull up to 1.3 million cattle to reach climate targets". The Guardian. Retrieved 12 June 2023.
  11. ^ "just-transition-meat-sector" (PDF).
  12. ^ a b Lallo, Cicero H. O.; Cohen, Jane; Rankine, Dale; Taylor, Michael; Cambell, Jayaka; Stephenson, Tannecia (24 May 2018). "Characterizing heat stress on livestock using the temperature humidity index (THI)—prospects for a warmer Caribbean". Regional Environmental Change. 18 (8): 2329–2340. doi:10.1007/s10113-018-1359-x. S2CID 158167267.
  13. ^ a b Mikovits, Christian; Zollitsch, Werner; Hörtenhuber, Stefan J.; Baumgartner, Johannes; Niebuhr, Knut; Piringer, Martin; Anders, Ivonne; Andre, Konrad; Hennig-Pauka, Isabel; Schönhart, Martin; Schauberger, Günther (22 January 2019). "Impacts of global warming on confined livestock systems for growing-fattening pigs: simulation of heat stress for 1981 to 2017 in Central Europe". International Journal of Biometeorology. 63 (2): 221–230. Bibcode:2019IJBm...63..221M. doi:10.1007/s00484-018-01655-0. PMID 30671619. S2CID 58951606.
  14. ^ a b c d Bett, B.; Kiunga, P.; Gachohi, J.; Sindato, C.; Mbotha, D.; Robinson, T.; Lindahl, J.; Grace, D. (23 January 2017). "Effects of climate change on the occurrence and distribution of livestock diseases". Preventive Veterinary Medicine. 137 (Pt B): 119–129. doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2016.11.019. PMID 28040271.
  15. ^ Bin-Jumah, May; Abd El-Hack, Mohamed E.; Abdelnour, Sameh A.; Hendy, Yasmeen A.; Ghanem, Hager A.; Alsafy, Sara A.; Khafaga, Asmaa F.; Noreldin, Ahmed E.; Shaheen, Hazem; Samak, Dalia; Momenah, Maha A.; Allam, Ahmed A.; AlKahtane, Abdullah A.; Alkahtani, Saad; Abdel-Daim, Mohamed M.; Aleya, Lotfi (19 December 2019). "Potential use of chromium to combat thermal stress in animals: A review". Science of the Total Environment. 707: 135996. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135996. PMID 31865090. S2CID 209447429.
  16. ^ Bagath, M.; Krishnan, G.; Deravaj, C.; Rashamol, V. P.; Pragna, P.; Lees, A. M.; Sejian, V. (21 August 2019). "The impact of heat stress on the immune system in dairy cattle: A review". Research in Veterinary Science. 126: 94–102. doi:10.1016/j.rvsc.2019.08.011. PMID 31445399. S2CID 201204108.
  17. ^ Foroushani, Sepehr; Amon, Thomas (11 July 2022). "Thermodynamic assessment of heat stress in dairy cattle: lessons from human biometeorology". International Journal of Biometeorology. 66 (9): 1811–1827. Bibcode:2022IJBm...66.1811F. doi:10.1007/s00484-022-02321-2. PMC 9418108. PMID 35821443.
  18. ^ Herbut, Piotr; Angrecka, Sabina; Walczak, Jacek (27 October 2018). "Environmental parameters to assessing of heat stress in dairy cattle—a review". International Journal of Biometeorology. 62 (12): 2089–2097. Bibcode:2018IJBm...62.2089H. doi:10.1007/s00484-018-1629-9. PMC 6244856. PMID 30368680.
  19. ^ Li, Jinghui; Narayanan, Vinod; Kebreab, Ermias; Dikmen, Sedal; Fadel, James G. (23 July 2021). "A mechanistic thermal balance model of dairy cattle". Biosystems Engineering. 209: 256–270. doi:10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2021.06.009.
  20. ^ St-Pierre, N.R.; Cobanov, B.; Schnitkey, G. (June 2003). "Economic Losses from Heat Stress by US Livestock Industries". Journal of Dairy Science. 86: E52–E77. doi:10.3168/jds.S0022-0302(03)74040-5.
  21. ^ Rahimi, Jaber; Mutua, John Yumbya; Notenbaert, An M. O.; Marshall, Karen; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus (18 February 2021). "Heat stress will detrimentally impact future livestock production in East Africa". Nature Food. 2 (2): 88–96. doi:10.1038/s43016-021-00226-8. PMID 37117410. S2CID 234031623.
  22. ^ "Caring for animals during extreme heat". Agriculture Victoria. 18 November 2021. Retrieved 19 October 2022.
  23. ^ a b Liu, Wanlu; Liu, Lulu; Yan, Rui; Gao, Jiangbo; Wu, Shaohong; Liu, Yanhua (28 November 2022). "A comprehensive meta-analysis of the impacts of intensified drought and elevated CO2 on forage growth". Journal of Environmental Management. 327: 116885. doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116885. PMID 36455442. S2CID 254151318.
  24. ^ a b c Lees, Angela M.; Sejian, Veerasamy; Wallage, Andrea L.; Steel, Cameron C.; Mader, Terry L.; Lees, Jarrod C.; Gaughan, John B. (2019-06-06). "The Impact of Heat Load on Cattle". Animals. 9 (6): 322. doi:10.3390/ani9060322. ISSN 2076-2615. PMC 6616461. PMID 31174286.
  25. ^ a b Karimi, Vahid; Karami, Ezatollah; Keshavarz, Marzieh (21 February 2018). "Vulnerability and Adaptation of Livestock Producers to Climate Variability and Change". Rangeland Ecology & Management. 71 (2): 175–184. doi:10.1007/s13762-021-03893-z. S2CID 246211499.
  26. ^ Zhao, Chuang; Liu, Bing; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Lobell, David B.; Huang, Yao; Huang, Mengtian; Yao, Yitong; Bassu, Simona; Ciais, Philippe; Durand, Jean-Louis; Elliott, Joshua; Ewert, Frank; Janssens, Ivan A.; Li, Tao; Lin, Erda; Liu, Qiang; Martre, Pierre; Müller, Christoph; Peng, Shushi; Peñuelas, Josep; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Wang, Tao; Wu, Donghai; Liu, Zhuo; Zhu, Yan; Zhu, Zaichun; Asseng, Senthold (15 August 2017). "Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 114 (35): 9326–9331. Bibcode:2017PNAS..114.9326Z. doi:10.1073/pnas.1701762114. PMC 5584412. PMID 28811375.
  27. ^ Tubiello FN, Soussana JF, Howden SM (December 2007). "Crop and pasture response to climate change". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 104 (50): 19686–19690. Bibcode:2007PNAS..10419686T. doi:10.1073/pnas.0701728104. PMC 2148358. PMID 18077401.
  28. ^ Catunda, Karen L. M.; Churchill, Amber C.; Zhang, Haiyang; Power, Sally A.; Moore, Ben D. (4 August 2021). "Short-term drought is a stronger driver of plant morphology and nutritional composition than warming in two common pasture species". Physiologia Plantarum. 208 (6): 841–852. doi:10.1111/jac.12531. S2CID 238826178.
  29. ^ Troy, T. J.; Kipgen, C.; Pal, I. (14 May 2015). "The impact of climate extremes and irrigation on US crop yields". Environmental Research Letters. 10 (5): 054013. Bibcode:2015ERL....10e4013T. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054013. S2CID 155053302.
  30. ^ a b Caretta M. A., Mukherji A., Arfanuzzaman M., Betts R. A., Gelfan A., Hirabayashi Y., Lissner T. K., Gunn E. L., Liu J., Morgan R., Mwanga S., Supratid S., 2022: Chapter 4: Water. In Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke,V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, US, pp. 1457–1579 |doi=10.1017/9781009325844.012
  31. ^ Descheemaeker, Katrien; Zijlstra, Mink; Masikati, Patricia; Crespo, Olivier; Homann-Kee Tui, Sabine (17 December 2017). "Effects of climate change and adaptation on the livestock component of mixed farming systems: A modelling study from semi-arid Zimbabwe". Agricultural Systems. 159: 282–295. doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2017.05.004.
  32. ^ Ding Y, Hayes MJ, Widhalm M (2011). "Measuring economic impacts of drought: A review and discussion". Disaster Prevention and Management. 20 (4): 434–446. doi:10.1108/09653561111161752.
  33. ^ Reeves, Matthew C.; Moreno, Adam L.; Bagne, Karen E.; Running, Steven W. (2 September 2014). "Estimating climate change effects on net primary production of rangelands in the United States". Climatic Change. 126 (3–4): 429–442. Bibcode:2014ClCh..126..429R. doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1235-8. S2CID 10035895.
  34. ^ Milius S (13 December 2017). "Worries grow that climate change will quietly steal nutrients from major food crops". Science News. Retrieved 21 January 2018.
  35. ^ Smith MR, Myers SS (27 August 2018). "Impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on global human nutrition". Nature Climate Change. 8 (9): 834–839. Bibcode:2018NatCC...8..834S. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0253-3. ISSN 1758-678X. S2CID 91727337.
  36. ^ Milchunas, D. G.; Mosier, A. R.; Morgan, J. A.; LeCain, D. R.; King, J. Y.; Nelson, J. A. (1 December 2005). "Elevated CO2 and defoliation effects on a shortgrass steppe: Forage quality versus quantity for ruminants". Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment. 111 (1–4): 166–184. doi:10.1016/j.agee.2005.06.014.
  37. ^ Augustine, David J.; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Springer, Tim L.; LeCain, Daniel R.; Gunter, Stacey A.; Derner, Justin D. (3 January 2018). "Elevated CO2 induces substantial and persistent declines in forage quality irrespective of warming in mixedgrass prairie". Ecological Applications. 28 (3): 721–735. doi:10.1002/eap.1680. PMID 29297964.
  38. ^ Habermann, Eduardo; de Oliveira, Eduardo Augusto Dias; Ribeiro Contin, Daniele; Delvecchio, Gustavo; Olivera Viciedo, Dilier; de Moraes, Marcela Aparecida; de Mello Prado, Renato; de Pinho Costa, Kátia Aparecida; Braga, Marcia Regina; Martinez, Carlos Alberto (7 December 2018). "Warming and water deficit impact leaf photosynthesis and decrease forage quality and digestibility of a C4 tropical grass". Physiologia Plantarum. 165 (2): 383–402. doi:10.1111/ppl.12891. PMID 30525220. S2CID 54489631.
  39. ^ Habermann, Eduardo; de Oliveira, Eduardo Augusto Dias; Ribeiro Contin, Daniele; Costa Pinho, João Vitor; de Pinho Costa, Kátia Aparecida; Martinez, Carlos Alberto (5 December 2022). "Warming offsets the benefits of elevated CO2 in water relations while amplifies elevated CO2-induced reduction in forage nutritional value in the C4 grass Megathyrsus maximus". Frontiers in Plant Science. 13. doi:10.3389/fpls.2022.1033953. PMC 9760913. PMID 36544868.
  40. ^ Olivera Viciedo, Dilier; de Mello Prado, Renato; Martinez, Carlos A.; Habermann, Eduardo; de Cassia Piccolo, Marisa; Calero-Hurtado, Alexander; Ferreira Bareto, Rafael; Pena, Kolimo (22 October 2021). "Are the interaction effects of warming and drought on nutritional status and biomass production in a tropical forage legume greater than their individual effects?". Planta. 254 (5): 104. doi:10.1007/s00425-021-03758-2. PMID 34686920. S2CID 237893829.
  41. ^ Habermann, Eduardo; Ribeiro Contin, Daniele; Fernandes Afonso, Laura; Barosela, Jose Ricardo; de Pinho Costa, Kátia Aparecida; Olivera Viciedo, Dilier; Groppo, Milton; Martinez, Carlos Alberto (15 May 2022). "Future warming will change the chemical composition and leaf blade structure of tropical C3 and C4 forage species depending on soil moisture levels". Science of the Total Environment. 821: 153342. Bibcode:2022ScTEn.821o3342H. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153342. PMID 35093366. S2CID 246421715.
  42. ^ a b Weindl, Isabelle; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander; Müller, Christoph; Havlík, Petr; Herrero, Mario; Schmitz, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne (16 September 2015). "Livestock in a changing climate: production system transitions as an adaptation strategy for agriculture". Environmental Research Letters. 10 (9): 094021. Bibcode:2015ERL....10i4021W. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094021. S2CID 7651989.
  43. ^ Thornton, Phillip K.; Herrero, Mario (5 April 2014). "Climate change adaptation in mixed crop–livestock systems in developing countries". Global Food Security. 3 (2): 99–107. doi:10.1016/j.gfs.2014.02.002.
  44. ^ a b c Parmesan, C., M.D. Morecroft, Y. Trisurat, R. Adrian, G.Z. Anshari, A. Arneth, Q. Gao, P. Gonzalez, R. Harris, J. Price, N. Stevens, and G.H. Talukdarr, 2022: Chapter 2: Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems and Their Services. In Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke,V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 257–260 |doi=10.1017/9781009325844.004
  45. ^ Lihou, Katie; Wall, Richard (15 September 2022). "Predicting the current and future risk of ticks on livestock farms in Britain using random forest models". Veterinary Parasitology. 311: 109806. doi:10.1016/j.vetpar.2022.109806. hdl:1983/991bf7a4-f59f-4934-8608-1d2122e069c8. PMID 36116333. S2CID 252247062.
  46. ^ Douclet, Lea; Goarant, Cyrille; Mangeas, Morgan; Menkes, Cristophe; Hinjoy, Soawapak; Herbreteau, Vincent (7 April 2022). "Unraveling the invisible leptospirosis in mainland Southeast Asia and its fate under climate change". Science of the Total Environment. 832: 155018. Bibcode:2022ScTEn.832o5018D. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155018. PMID 35390383. S2CID 247970053.
  47. ^ Fé-Gonçalves, Luciana Mara; Araújo, José Deney Alves; dos Anjos dos Santos, Carlos Henrique; Luis Val, Adalberto; Fonseca de Almeida-Val, Vera Maria (21 March 2020). "How will farmed populations of freshwater fish deal with the extreme climate scenario in 2100? Transcriptional responses of Colossoma macropomum from two Brazilian climate regions". Journal of Thermal Biology. 89: 102487. doi:10.1016/j.jtherbio.2019.102487. PMID 32364997. S2CID 216361328.
  48. ^ Liang, Hualiang; Ge, Xianping; Xia, Dong; Ren, Mingchun; Mi, Haifeng; Pan, Liangkun (12 November 2021). "The role of dietary chromium supplementation in relieving heat stress of juvenile blunt snout bream Megalobrama amblycephala". Fish & Shellfish Immunology. 120: 23–30. doi:10.1016/j.fsi.2021.11.012. PMID 34774732. S2CID 244058372.
  49. ^ a b Habte, Matiwos; Eshetu, Mitiku; Maryo, Melesse; Andualem, Dereje; Legesse, Abiyot (4 March 2022). "Effects of climate variability on livestock productivity and pastoralists perception: The case of drought resilience in Southeastern Ethiopia". Veterinary and Animal Science. 16: 100240. doi:10.1016/j.vas.2022.100240. PMC 8897645. PMID 35257034.
  50. ^ a b Gaughan, J. B.; Mader, T. L.; Holt, S. M.; Sullivan, M. L.; Hahn, G. L. (21 May 2009). "Assessing the heat tolerance of 17 beef cattle genotypes". International Journal of Biometeorology. 54 (6): 617–627. doi:10.1007/s00484-009-0233-4. PMID 19458966. S2CID 10134761.
  51. ^ "Number of cattle, 1961 to 2021". Our World in Data.
  52. ^ Çaylı, Ali M.; Arslan, Bilge (7 February 2022). "Analysis of the Thermal Environment and Determination of Heat Stress Periods for Dairy Cattle Under Eastern Mediterranean Climate Conditions". Journal of Biosystems Engineering. 47: 39–47. doi:10.1007/s42853-021-00126-6. S2CID 246655199.
  53. ^ Ahmed, Haseeb; Tamminen, Lena-Mari; Emanuelson, Ulf (22 November 2022). "Temperature, productivity, and heat tolerance: Evidence from Swedish dairy production". Climatic Change. 175 (1–2): 1269–1285. Bibcode:2022ClCh..175...10A. doi:10.1007/s10584-022-03461-5. S2CID 253764271.
  54. ^ Pramod, S.; Sahib, Lasna; Becha B, Bibin; Venkatachalapathy, R. Thirupathy (3 January 2021). "Analysis of the effects of thermal stress on milk production in a humid tropical climate using linear and non-linear models". Tropical Animal Health and Production. 53 (1): 1269–1285. doi:10.1007/s11250-020-02525-x. PMID 33392887. S2CID 255113614.
  55. ^ Blanco-Penedo, Isabel; Velarde, Antonio; Kipling, Richard P.; Ruete, Alejandro (25 August 2020). "Modeling heat stress under organic dairy farming conditions in warm temperate climates within the Mediterranean basin". Climatic Change. 162 (3): 1269–1285. Bibcode:2020ClCh..162.1269B. doi:10.1007/s10584-020-02818-y. hdl:20.500.12327/909. S2CID 221283658.
  56. ^ Ranjitkar, Sailesh; Bu, Dengpan; Van Wijk, Mark; Ma, Ying; Ma, Lu; Zhao, Lianshen; Shi, Jianmin; Liu, Chousheng; Xu, Jianchu (2 April 2020). "Will heat stress take its toll on milk production in China?". Climatic Change. 161 (4): 637–652. Bibcode:2020ClCh..161..637R. doi:10.1007/s10584-020-02688-4. S2CID 214783104.
  57. ^ Manica, Emanuel; Coltri, Priscila Pereira; Pacheco, Verônica Madeira; Martello, Luciane Silva (6 October 2022). "Changes in the pattern of heat waves and the impacts on Holstein cows in a subtropical region". International Journal of Biometeorology. 66 (12): 2477–2488. Bibcode:2022IJBm...66.2477M. doi:10.1007/s00484-022-02374-3. PMID 36201039. S2CID 252736195.
  58. ^ Berman, A. (9 February 2019). "An overview of heat stress relief with global warming in perspective". International Journal of Biometeorology. 63 (4): 493–498. Bibcode:2019IJBm...63..493B. doi:10.1007/s00484-019-01680-7. PMID 30739158. S2CID 73450919.
  59. ^ Dahl, G. E.; Tao, S.; Monteiro, A. P. A. (31 March 2016). "Effects of late-gestation heat stress on immunity and performance of calves". Journal of Dairy Science. 99 (4): 3193–3198. doi:10.3168/jds.2015-9990. PMID 26805989.
  60. ^ Lecchi, Cristina; Rota, Nicola; Vitali, Andrea; Ceciliani, Fabrizio; Lacetera, Nicola (December 2016). "In vitro assessment of the effects of temperature on phagocytosis, reactive oxygen species production and apoptosis in bovine polymorphonuclear cells". Veterinary Immunology and Immunopathology. 182: 89–94. doi:10.1016/j.vetimm.2016.10.007. hdl:2434/454100. PMID 27863557.
  61. ^ Goulson, Dave; Derwent, Lara C.; Hanley, Michael E.; Dunn, Derek W.; Abolins, Steven R. (5 September 2005). "Predicting calyptrate fly populations from the weather, and probable consequences of climate change". Journal of Applied Ecology. 42 (5): 795–804. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2664.2005.01078.x. S2CID 3892520.
  62. ^ Nava, Santiago; Gamietea, Ignacio J.; Morel, Nicolas; Guglielmone, Alberto A.; Estrada-Pena, Agustin (6 July 2022). "Assessment of habitat suitability for the cattle tick Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus in temperate areas". Research in Veterinary Science. 150: 10–21. doi:10.1016/j.rvsc.2022.04.020. PMID 35803002. S2CID 250252036.
  63. ^ a b Rose, Hannah; Wang, Tong; van Dijk, Jan; Morgan, Eric R. (5 January 2015). "GLOWORM-FL: A simulation model of the effects of climate and climate change on the free-living stages of gastro-intestinal nematode parasites of ruminants". Ecological Modelling. 297: 232–245. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.11.033.
  64. ^ Hamilton, Tucker W.; Ritten, John P.; Bastian, Christopher T.; Derner, Justin D.; Tanaka, John A. (10 November 2016). "Economic Impacts of Increasing Seasonal Precipitation Variation on Southeast Wyoming Cow-Calf Enterprises". Rangeland Ecology & Management. 69 (6): 465–473. doi:10.1016/j.rama.2016.06.008. S2CID 89379400.
  65. ^ Arias, P.A., N. Bellouin, E. Coppola, R.G. Jones, G. Krinner, J. Marotzke, V. Naik, M.D. Palmer, G.-K. Plattner, J. Rogelj, M. Rojas, J. Sillmann, T. Storelvmo, P.W. Thorne, B. Trewin, K. Achuta Rao, B. Adhikary, R.P. Allan, K. Armour, G. Bala, R. Barimalala, S. Berger, J.G. Canadell, C. Cassou, A. Cherchi, W. Collins, W.D. Collins, S.L. Connors, S. Corti, F. Cruz, F.J. Dentener, C. Dereczynski, A. Di Luca, A. Diongue Niang, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, A. Dosio, H. Douville, F. Engelbrecht, V. Eyring, E. Fischer, P. Forster, B. Fox-Kemper, J.S. Fuglestvedt, J.C. Fyfe, et al., 2021: Technical Summary. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, US, pp. 33–144. doi:10.1017/9781009157896.002.
  66. ^ Buddhika Patalee, M. A.; Tonsor, Glynn T. (9 July 2021). "Impact of weather on cow-calf industry locations and production in the United States". Agricultural Systems. 193: 103212. doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103212.
  67. ^ Fust, Pascal; Schlecht, Eva (30 March 2022). "Importance of timing: Vulnerability of semi-arid rangeland systems to increased variability in temporal distribution of rainfall events as predicted by future climate change". Ecological Modelling. 468: 109961. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.109961. S2CID 247877540.
  68. ^ Emediegwu, Lotanna E.; Ubabukoh, Chisom L. (14 November 2022). "Re-examining the impact of annual weather fluctuations on global livestock production". Ecological Economics. 204: 107662. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107662. S2CID 253544787.
  69. ^ Rolla, Alfredo L.; Nuñez, Mario N.; Ramayón, Jorge J.; Ramayón, Martín E. (15 March 2019). "Impacts of climate change on bovine livestock production in Argentina". Climatic Change. 153 (3): 439–455. Bibcode:2019ClCh..153..439R. doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02399-5. hdl:11336/123433. S2CID 159286875.
  70. ^ a b Kang, Hyungsuk; Zsoldos, Rebeka R.; Sole-Guitart, Albert; Narayan, Edward; Cawdell-Smith, A. Judith; Gaughan, John B. (15 April 2023). "Heat stress in horses: a literature review". International Journal of Biometeorology. 67 (6): 957–973. Bibcode:2023IJBm...67..957K. doi:10.1007/s00484-023-02467-7. PMC 10267279. PMID 37060454.
  71. ^ a b McCutcheon, L. Jill; Geor, Raymond J. (1998). "Sweating: Fluid and Ion Losses and Replacement". Veterinary Clinics of North America: Equine Practice. 14 (1): 75–95. doi:10.1016/s0749-0739(17)30213-4. ISSN 0749-0739.
  72. ^ McDonald, Rhona E.; Fleming, Rachel I.; Beeley, John G.; Bovell, Douglas L.; Lu, Jian R.; Zhao, Xiubo; Cooper, Alan; Kennedy, Malcolm W. (2009). "Latherin: A Surfactant Protein of Horse Sweat and Saliva". PLoS One. 4 (5): e5726. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0005726. ISSN 1932-6203. PMC 2684629.
  73. ^ Gao, Hongyan; Wang, Long; Ma, Jun; Gao, Xiang; Xiao, Jianhua; Wang, Hongbing (29 October 2021). "Modeling the current distribution suitability and future dynamics of Culicoides imicola under climate change scenarios". PeerJ Life & Environment. 9: e12308. doi:10.7717/peerj.12308. PMC 8559603. PMID 34760364.
  74. ^ Martin, Gerardo; Yanez-Arenas, Carlos; Chen, Carla; Plowright, Raina K.; Webb, Rebecca J.; Skerratt, Lee F. (19 March 2018). "Climate Change Could Increase the Geographic Extent of Hendra Virus Spillover Risk". EcoHealth. 15 (3): 509–525. doi:10.1007/s10393-018-1322-9. PMC 6245089. PMID 29556762.
  75. ^ McManus, Concepta M.; Lucci, Carolina Madeira; Maranhão, Andrea Queiroz; Pimentel, Daniel; Pimentel, Felipe; Paiva, Samuel (19 July 2022). "Response to heat stress for small ruminants: Physiological and genetic aspects". Livestock Science. 263: 105028. doi:10.1016/j.livsci.2022.105028. S2CID 250577585.
  76. ^ Kang, Hyungsuk; Zsoldos, Rebeka R.; Sole-Guitart, Albert; Narayan, Edward; Cawdell-Smith, A. Judith; Gaughan, John B. (7 August 2021). "Goat as the ideal climate-resilient animal model in tropical environment: revisiting advantages over other livestock species". International Journal of Biometeorology. 65 (6): 2229–2240. Bibcode:2023IJBm...67..957K. doi:10.1007/s00484-023-02467-7. PMC 10267279. PMID 37060454.
  77. ^ Wanjala, George; Astuti, Putri Kusuma; Bagi, Zoltán; Kichamu, Nelly; Strausz, Péter; Kusza, Szilvia (1 December 2022). "A review on the potential effects of environmental and economic factors on sheep genetic diversity: Consequences of climate change". Saudi Journal of Biological Sciences. 30 (1): 103505. doi:10.1016/j.sjbs.2022.103505. PMC 9718971. PMID 36471796.
  78. ^ McManus, Concepta M.; Faria, Danielle A.; Lucci, Carolina M.; Louvandini, Helder; Pereira, Sidney A.; Paiva, Samuel R. (14 July 2020). "Heat stress effects on sheep: Are hair sheep more heat resistant?". Theriogenology. 155: 157–167. doi:10.1016/j.theriogenology.2020.05.047. PMID 32679441. S2CID 220631038.
  79. ^ Jenkins, E. J.; Veitch, A. M.; Kutz, S. J.; Hoberg, E. P.; Polley, L. (7 December 2005). "Climate change and the epidemiology of protostrongylid nematodes in northern ecosystems: Parelaphostrongylus odocoilei and Protostrongylus stilesi in Dall's sheep (Ovis d. dalli)". Parasitology. 132 (3): 387–401. doi:10.1017/S0031182005009145. PMID 16332289. S2CID 5838454.
  80. ^ a b Oladokun, Samson; Adewole, Deborah I. (1 October 2022). "Biomarkers of heat stress and mechanism of heat stress response in Avian species: Current insights and future perspectives from poultry science". Journal of Thermal Biology. 110: 103332. doi:10.1016/j.jtherbio.2022.103332. PMID 36462852. S2CID 252361675.
  81. ^ Alhenaky, Alhanof; Abdelqader, Anas; Abuajamieh, Mohannad; Al-Fataftah, Abdur-Rahman (3 November 2017). "The effect of heat stress on intestinal integrity and Salmonella invasion in broiler birds". Journal of Thermal Biology. 70 (Pt B): 9–14. doi:10.1016/j.jtherbio.2017.10.015. PMID 29108563.
  82. ^ Kuter, Eren; Cengiz, Özcan; Köksal, Bekir Hakan; Sevim, Ömer; Tatlı, Onur; Ahsan, Umair; Güven, Gülşen; Önol, Ahmet Gökhan; Bilgili, Sacit F. (28 December 2022). "Litter quality and incidence and severity of footpad dermatitis in heat stressed broiler chickens fed supplemental zinc". Livestock Science. 267: 1491–1499. doi:10.1016/j.livsci.2022.105145. S2CID 254914487.
  83. ^ Xu, Yongjie; Lai, Xiaodan; Li, Zhipeng; Zhang, Xiquan; Luo, Qingbin (1 November 2018). "Effect of chronic heat stress on some physiological and immunological parameters in different breed of broilers". Poultry Science. 97 (11): 4073–4082. doi:10.3382/ps/pey256. PMC 6162357. PMID 29931080.
  84. ^ Orhan, Cemal; Tuzcu, Mehmet; Deeh, Patrick Brice Defo; Sahin, Nurhan; Komorowski, James R.; Sahin, Kazim (21 August 2018). "Organic Chromium Form Alleviates the Detrimental Effects of Heat Stress on Nutrient Digestibility and Nutrient Transporters in Laying Hens". Biological Trace Element Research. 189 (2): 529–537. doi:10.1007/s12011-018-1485-9. PMID 30132119. S2CID 255452740.
  85. ^ Sahin, N; Hayirli, A; Orhan, C; Tuzcu, M; Akdemir, F; Komorowski, J R; Sahin, K (11 December 2019). "Effects of the supplemental chromium form on performance and oxidative stress in broilers exposed to heat stress". Poultry Science. 96 (12): 4317–4324. doi:10.3382/ps/pex249. PMID 29053811. S2CID 10630678.
  86. ^ Untea, Arabela Elena; Varzaru, Iulia; Turcu, Raluca Paula; Panaite, Tatiana Dumitra; Saracila, Mihaela (13 October 2021). "The use of dietary chromium associated with vitamins and minerals (synthetic and natural source) to improve some quality aspects of broiler thigh meat reared under heat stress condition". Italian Journal of Animal Science. 20 (1): 1491–1499. doi:10.1080/1828051X.2021.1978335. S2CID 244583811.
  87. ^ Ding, Kang-Ning; Lu, Meng-Han; Guo, Yan-Na; Liang, Shao-Shan; Mou, Rui-Wei; He, Yong-Ming He; Tang, Lu-Ping (14 December 2022). "Resveratrol relieves chronic heat stress-induced liver oxidative damage in broilers by activating the Nrf2-Keap1 signaling pathway". Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety. 249: 114411. doi:10.1016/j.ecoenv.2022.114411. PMID 36525949. S2CID 254723325.
  88. ^ Sahin, K; Sahin, N; Kucuk, O; Hayirli, A; Prasad, A. S. (1 October 2009). "Role of dietary zinc in heat-stressed poultry: A review". Poultry Science. 88 (10): 2176–2183. doi:10.3382/ps.2008-00560. PMID 19762873.
  89. ^ El-Tarabany, Mahmoud S. (27 August 2016). "Effect of thermal stress on fertility and egg quality of Japanese quail". Journal of Thermal Biology. 61: 38–43. doi:10.1016/j.jtherbio.2016.08.004. PMID 27712658.
  90. ^ Bilal, Rana Muhammad; Hassan, Faiz-ul; Farag, Mayada R.; Nasir, Taquir Ali; Ragni, Marco; Ahsan, Umair; Güven, Gülşen (20 April 2021). "Thermal stress and high stocking densities in poultry farms: Potential effects and mitigation strategies". Journal of Thermal Biology. 99: 102944. doi:10.1016/j.jtherbio.2021.102944. PMID 34420608. S2CID 233555119.
  91. ^ Kucuk, O. (10 January 2008). "Zinc in a Combination with Magnesium Helps Reducing Negative Effects of Heat Stress in Quails". Biological Trace Element Research. 123 (1–3): 144–153. doi:10.1007/s12011-007-8083-6. PMID 18188513. S2CID 24775551.
  92. ^ de Carvalho Curi, T. M. R.; de Alencar Nääs, I.; da Silva Lima, N. D.; Martinez, A. A. G. (24 January 2022). "Climate change impact on Brazilian broiler production cost: a simulation study". International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology. 19 (11): 10589–10598. doi:10.1007/s13762-021-03893-z. S2CID 246211499.
  93. ^ Kerr R.B., Hasegawa T., Lasco R., Bhatt I., Deryng D., Farrell A., Gurney-Smith H., Ju H., Lluch-Cota S., Meza F., Nelson G., Neufeldt H., Thornton P., 2022: Chapter 5: Food, Fibre and Other Ecosystem Products. In Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke,V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, US, pp. 1457–1579 |doi=10.1017/9781009325844.012
  94. ^ Ellen Phiddian (5 April 2022). "Explainer: IPCC Scenarios". Cosmos. Retrieved 12 June 2023.
  95. ^ Roth, Sabrina K.; Hader, John D.; Domercq, Prado; Sobek, Anna; MacLeod, Matthew (22 May 2023). "Scenario-based modelling of changes in chemical intake fraction in Sweden and the Baltic Sea under global change". Science of the Total Environment. 888: 2329–2340. Bibcode:2023ScTEn.888p4247R. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164247. PMID 37196966. S2CID 258751271.
  96. ^ "just-transition-meat-sector" (PDF).
  97. ^ Lisa O'Carroll (3 November 2021). "Ireland would need to cull up to 1.3 million cattle to reach climate targets". The Guardian. Retrieved 12 June 2023.
  98. ^ Rasmussen, Laura Vang; Hall, Charlotte; Vansant, Emilie C.; Braber, Bowie den; Olesen, Rasmus Skov (17 September 2021). "Rethinking the approach of a global shift toward plant-based diets". One Earth. 4 (9): 1201–1204. Bibcode:2021OEart...4.1201R. doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2021.08.018. S2CID 239376124.
  99. ^ Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2013) "FAO STATISTICAL YEARBOOK 2013 World Food and Agriculture". See data in Table 49.
  100. ^ Ripple WJ, Smith P, Haberl H, Montzka SA, McAlpine C, Boucher DH (20 December 2013). "Ruminants, climate change and climate policy". Nature Climate Change. 4 (1): 2–5. Bibcode:2014NatCC...4....2R. doi:10.1038/nclimate2081.
  101. ^ Giamouri, Elisavet; Zisis, Foivos; Mitsiopoulou, Christina; Christodoulou, Christos; Pappas, Athanasios C.; Simitzis, Panagiotis E.; Kamilaris, Charalampos; Galliou, Fenia; Manios, Thrassyvoulos; Mavrommatis, Alexandros; Tsiplakou, Eleni (2023-02-24). "Sustainable Strategies for Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction in Small Ruminants Farming". Sustainability. 15 (5): 4118. doi:10.3390/su15054118. ISSN 2071-1050.
  102. ^ Cicerone RJ, Oremland RS (December 1988). "Biogeochemical aspects of atmospheric methane". Global Biogeochemical Cycles. 2 (4): 299–327. Bibcode:1988GBioC...2..299C. doi:10.1029/GB002i004p00299. S2CID 56396847.
  103. ^ Yavitt JB (1992). "Methane, biogeochemical cycle". Encyclopedia of Earth System Science. 3. London, England: Academic Press: 197–207.