At current emission rates averaging six and a half tonnes per person per year, before 2030 temperatures may have increased by an average of 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) over pre-industrial levels, which is the limit for the G7 countries and aspirational limit of the Paris Agreement.[7]
Measurements and calculations
Annual CO2 emissions, total by country, not per capita (2017 data)
Global greenhouse gas emissions are about 50 Gt per year[8] (6.6t per person[9]) and for 2019 have been estimated at 57 Gt CO2 eq including 5 Gt due to land use change.[10] In 2019, approximately 34% [20 GtCO2-eq] of total net anthropogenic GHG emissions came from the energy supply sector, 24% [14 GtCO2-eq] from industry, 22% [13 GtCO2-eq]from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU), 15% [8.7 GtCO2-eq] from transport and 6% [3.3 GtCO2-eq] from buildings.[11]
Although CFCs are greenhouse gases, they are regulated by the Montreal Protocol, which was motivated by CFCs' contribution to ozone depletion rather than by their contribution to global warming. Note that ozone depletion has only a minor role in greenhouse warming, though the two processes are sometimes confused in the media. In 2016, negotiators from over 170 nations meeting at the summit of the United Nations Environment Programme reached a legally binding accord to phase out hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol.[14][15][16]
There are several ways of measuring greenhouse gas emissions. Some variables that have been reported include:[17]
Definition of measurement boundaries: Emissions can be attributed geographically, to the area where they were emitted (the territory principle) or by the activity principle to the territory that produced the emissions. These two principles result in different totals when measuring, for example, electricity importation from one country to another, or emissions at an international airport.
Time horizon of different gases: The contribution of given greenhouse gas is reported as a CO2 equivalent. The calculation to determine this takes into account how long that gas remains in the atmosphere. This is not always known accurately[clarification needed] and calculations must be regularly updated to reflect new information.
These measures are sometimes used by countries to assert various policy/ethical positions on climate change.[19]: 94
The use of different measures leads to a lack of comparability, which is problematic when monitoring progress towards targets. There are arguments for the adoption of a common measurement tool, or at least the development of communication between different tools.[17]
Emissions may be tracked over long time periods, known as historical or cumulative emissions measurements. Cumulative emissions provide some indicators of what is responsible for greenhouse gas atmospheric concentration build-up.[20]: 199
The national accounts balance tracks emissions based on the difference between a country's exports and imports. For many richer nations, the balance is negative because more goods are imported than they are exported. This result is mostly due to the fact that it is cheaper to produce goods outside of developed countries, leading developed countries to become increasingly dependent on services and not goods. A positive account balance would mean that more production was occurring within a country, so more operational factories would increase carbon emission levels.[21]
Emissions may also be measured across shorter time periods. Emissions changes may, for example, be measured against the base year of 1990. 1990 was used in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as the base year for emissions, and is also used in the Kyoto Protocol (some gases are also measured from the year 1995).[12]: 146, 149 A country's emissions may also be reported as a proportion of global emissions for a particular year.
Another measurement is of per capita emissions. This divides a country's total annual emissions by its mid-year population.[22]: 370 Per capita emissions may be based on historical or annual emissions.[19]: 106–107
While cities are sometimes considered to be disproportionate contributors to emissions, per-capita emissions tend to be lower for cities than the averages in their countries.[23]
At current emission rates, before 2030 temperatures may have increased by 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) over pre-industrial levels,[24][25] which is the limit for the G7 countries[26] and aspirational limit of the Paris Agreement.[27]
Modern global CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels.
Potential CO2 emissions from large fossil fuel projects 'carbon bombs' per country
Since about 1750, human activity has increased the concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. As of 2021, measured atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide were almost 50% higher than pre-industrial levels.[28] Natural sources of carbon dioxide are more than 20 times greater than sources due to human activity,[29] but over periods longer than a few years natural sources are closely balanced by natural sinks, mainly photosynthesis of carbon compounds by plants and marine plankton. Absorption of terrestrial infrared radiation by longwave absorbing gases makes Earth a less efficient emitter. Therefore, in order for Earth to emit as much energy as is absorbed, global temperatures must increase.
Burning fossil fuels is estimated to have emitted 62% of 2015 human GhG.[30] The largest single source is coal-fired power stations, with 20% of GHG as of 2021.[31]
The main sources of greenhouse gases due to human activity are:
burning of fossil fuels and deforestation leading to higher carbon dioxide concentrations in the air.
land use change (mainly deforestation in the tropics) accounts for about a quarter of total anthropogenic GHG emissions.[32]
Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of electricity supply technologies, median values calculated by IPCC[54]
Life cycle CO2 equivalent (including albedo effect) from selected electricity supply technologies according to IPCC 2014.[54][55] Arranged by decreasing median (gCO2eq/kWh) values.
One liter of gasoline, when used as a fuel, produces 2.32 kg (about 1300 liters or 1.3 cubic meters) of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas. One US gallon produces 19.4 lb (1,291.5 gallons or 172.65 cubic feet).[58][59][60]
The mass of carbon dioxide that is released when one MJ of energy is released from fuel can be estimated to a good approximation.[61] For the chemical formula of diesel we use as an approximation C nH 2n. Note that diesel is a mixture of different molecules. As carbon has a molar mass of 12 g/mol and hydrogen (atomic!) has a molar mass of about 1 g/mol, so the fraction by weight of carbon in diesel is roughly 12/14. The reaction of diesel combustion is given by:
2C nH 2n + 3nO 2 ⇌ 2nCO 2 + 2nH 2O
Carbon dioxide has a molar mass of 44g/mol as it consists of 2 atoms of oxygen (16 g/mol) and 1 atom of carbon (12 g/mol). So 12 g of carbon yield 44 g of Carbon dioxide. Diesel has an energy content of 42.6 MJ per kg or 23.47 gram of Diesel contain 1 MJ of energy. Putting everything together the mass of carbon dioxide that is produced by releasing 1MJ of energy from diesel fuel can be calculated as:
For gasoline, with 22 g/MJ and a ratio of carbon to hydrogen atoms of about 6 to 14, the estimated value of carbon emission for 1MJ of energy is:
Mass of carbon dioxide emitted per quantity of energy for various fuels[62]
GHG emissions are measured in CO2 equivalents determined by their global warming potential (GWP), which depends on their lifetime in the atmosphere. Estimations largely depend on the ability of oceans and land sinks to absorb these gases. Short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) including methane, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), tropospheric ozone and black carbon persist in the atmosphere for a period ranging from days to 15 years; whereas carbon dioxide can remain in the atmosphere for millennia.[66] Reducing SLCP emissions can cut the ongoing rate of global warming by almost half and reduce the projected Arctic warming by two-thirds.[67]
GHG emissions in 2019 were estimated at 57.4 GtCO2e, while CO2 emissions alone made up 42.5 Gt including land-use change (LUC).[68]
While mitigation measures for decarbonization are essential on the longer term, they could result in weak near-term warming because sources of carbon emissions often also co-emit air pollution. Hence, pairing measures that target carbon dioxide with measures targeting non-CO2 pollutants – short-lived climate pollutants, which have faster effects on the climate, is essential for climate goals.[69]
Carbon dioxide (CO2)
Fossil fuel: oil, gas and coal (89%) are the major driver of anthropogenic global warming with annual emissions of 35.6 GtCO2 in 2019.[63]: 20
Land-use change (LUC) is the imbalance of deforestation and reforestation. Estimations are very uncertain at 4.5 GtCO2. Wildfires alone cause annual emissions of about 7 GtCO2[70][71]
Non-energy use of fuels, carbon losses in coke ovens, and flaring in crude oil production.[63]
Methane (CH4)
Historical and future temperature projections showing importance of mitigating short-lived climate pollutants like methane
Methane has a high immediate impact with a 5-year global warming potential of up to 100.[65] Given this, the current 389 Mt of methane emissions[63]: 6 has about the same short-term global warming effect as CO2 emissions, with a risk to trigger irreversible changes in climate and ecosystems. For methane, a reduction of about 30% below current emission levels would lead to a stabilization in its atmospheric concentration.
Fossil fuels (32%), again, account for most of the methane emissions including coal mining (12% of methane total), gas distribution and leakages (11%) as well as gas venting in oil production (9%).[63]: 6 [63]: 12
Livestock (28%) with cattle (21%) as the dominant source, followed by buffalo (3%), sheep (2%), and goats (1.5%).[63]: 6, 23
Human waste and wastewater (21%): When biomass waste in landfills and organic substances in domestic and industrial wastewater is decomposed by bacteria in anaerobic conditions, substantial amounts of methane are generated.[63]: 12
Rice cultivation (10%) on flooded rice fields is another agricultural source, where anaerobic decomposition of organic material produces methane.[63]: 12
Nitrous oxide (N 2O)
N2O has a high GWP and significant Ozone Depleting Potential. It is estimated that the global warming potential of N2O over 100 years is 265 times greater than CO2.[72] For N2O, a reduction of more than 50% would be required for a stabilization.
Most emissions (56%) by agriculture, especially meat production: cattle (droppings on pasture), fertilizers, animal manure.[63]: 12
Fluorinated gases include hydrofluorocarbons (HFC), perfluorocarbons (PFC), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), and nitrogen trifluoride (NF3). They are used by switchgear in the power sector, semiconductor manufacture, aluminum production and a largely unknown source of SF6.[63]: 38 Continued phase down of manufacture and use of HFCs under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol will help reduce HFC emissions and concurrently improve the energy efficiency of appliances that use HFCs like air conditioners, freezers and other refrigeration devices.
Hydrogen
Hydrogen leakages contribute to indirect global warming.[74]
Black carbon
Black carbon is formed through the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biofuel, and biomass. It is not a greenhouse gas but a climate forcing agent. Black carbon can absorb sunlight and reduce albedo when deposited on snow and ice. Indirect heating can be caused by the interaction with clouds.[75] Black carbon stays in the atmosphere for only several days to weeks.[76] Emissions may be mitigated by upgrading coke ovens, installing particulate filters on diesel-based engines, reducing routine flaring, and minimizing open burning of biomass.
2016 global greenhouse gas emissions by sector.[77] Percentages are calculated from estimated global emissions of all Kyoto Greenhouse Gases, converted to CO2 equivalent quantities (GtCO2e).
Global greenhouse gas emissions can be attributed to different sectors of the economy. This provides a picture of the varying contributions of different types of economic activity to climate change, and helps in understanding the changes required to mitigate climate change.
Manmade greenhouse gas emissions can be divided into those that arise from the combustion of fuels to produce energy, and those generated by other processes. Around two thirds of greenhouse gas emissions arise from the combustion of fuels.[78]
Energy may be produced at the point of consumption, or by a generator for consumption by others. Thus emissions arising from energy production may be categorized according to where they are emitted, or where the resulting energy is consumed. If emissions are attributed at the point of production, then electricity generators contribute about 25% of global greenhouse gas emissions.[79] If these emissions are attributed to the final consumer then 24% of total emissions arise from manufacturing and construction, 17% from transportation, 11% from domestic consumers, and 7% from commercial consumers.[80] Around 4% of emissions arise from the energy consumed by the energy and fuel industry itself.
The remaining third of emissions arise from processes other than energy production. 12% of total emissions arise from agriculture, 7% from land use change and forestry, 6% from industrial processes, and 3% from waste.[78]
Coal-fired power stations are the single largest emitter, with over 20% of global GhG in 2018.[81] Although much less polluting than coal plants, natural gas-fired power plants are also major emitters,[82] taking electricity generation as a whole over 25% in 2018.[83] Notably, just 5% of the world's power plants account for almost three-quarters of carbon emissions from electricity generation, based on an inventory of more than 29,000 fossil-fuel power plants across 221 countries.[84] In the 2022 IPCC report, it is noted that providing modern energy services universally would only increase greenhouse gas emissions by a few percent at most. This slight increase means that the additional energy demand that comes from supporting decent living standards for all would be far lower than current average energy consumption.[85]
Agriculture, forestry and land use
Agriculture
Agriculture contributes towards climate change through greenhouse gas emissions and by the conversion of non-agricultural land such as forests into agricultural land.[86][87] The agriculture, forestry and land use sector contribute between 13% and 21% of global greenhouse gas emissions.[88] Emissions of nitrous oxide, methane make up over half of total greenhouse gas emission from agriculture.[89]Animal husbandry is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions.[90]
The agricultural food system is responsible for a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions.[91][92] In addition to being a significant user of land and consumer of fossil fuel, agriculture contributes directly to greenhouse gas emissions through practices such as rice production and the raising of livestock.[93] The three main causes of the increase in greenhouse gases observed over the past 250 years have been fossil fuels, land use, and agriculture.[94] Farm animal digestive systems can be put into two categories: monogastric and ruminant. Ruminant cattle for beef and dairy rank high in greenhouse-gas emissions; monogastric, or pigs and poultry-related foods, are low. The consumption of the monogastric types may yield less emissions. Monogastric animals have a higher feed-conversion efficiency, and also do not produce as much methane.[91] Furthermore, CO2 is actually re-emitted into the atmosphere by plant and soil respiration in the later stages of crop growth, causing more greenhouse gas emissions.[95] The amount of greenhouse gases produced during the manufacture and use of nitrogen fertilizer is estimated as around 5% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The single most important way to cut emissions from it is to use less fertilizers, while increasing the efficiency of their use.[96]
There are many strategies that can be used to help soften the effects, and the further production of greenhouse gas emissions - this is also referred to as climate-smart agriculture. Some of these strategies include a higher efficiency in livestock farming, which includes management, as well as technology; a more effective process of managing manure; a lower dependence upon fossil-fuels and nonrenewable resources; a variation in the animals' eating and drinking duration, time and location; and a cutback in both the production and consumption of animal-sourced foods.[91][97][98][99] A range of policies may reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the agriculture sector for a more sustainable food system.[100][101]
Deforestation
Mean annual carbon loss from tropical deforestation.[102]
Deforestation is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. A study shows annual carbon emissions (or carbon loss) from tropical deforestation have doubled during the last two decades and continue to increase. (0.97 ±0.16 PgC per year in 2001–2005 to 1.99 ±0.13 PgC per year in 2015–2019)[103][102]
Substantial land-use change contributions to emissions have been made by Latin America, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Pacific Islands. Area of rectangles shows total emissions for that region.[104]
Land-use change, e.g., the clearing of forests for agricultural use, can affect the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere by altering how much carbon flows out of the atmosphere into carbon sinks.[105] Accounting for land-use change can be understood as an attempt to measure "net" emissions, i.e., gross emissions from all sources minus the removal of emissions from the atmosphere by carbon sinks.[19]: 92–93
There are substantial uncertainties in the measurement of net carbon emissions.[106] Additionally, there is controversy over how carbon sinks should be allocated between different regions and over time.[19]: 93 For instance, concentrating on more recent changes in carbon sinks is likely to favour those regions that have deforested earlier, e.g., Europe.
Approximately 3.5% of the overall human impacts on climate are from the aviation sector. The impact of the sector on climate in the late 20 years had doubled, but the part of the contribution of the sector in comparison to other sectors did not change because other sectors grew as well.[110]
Trucking and haulage
Over a quarter of global transport CO2 emissions are from road freight,[111] so many countries are further restricting truck CO2 emissions to help limit climate change.[112]
Buildings and construction
In 2018, manufacturing construction materials and maintaining buildings accounted for 39% of carbon dioxide emissions from energy and process-related emissions. Manufacture of glass, cement, and steel accounted for 11% of energy and process-related emissions.[113] Because building construction is a significant investment, more than two-thirds of buildings in existence will still exist in 2050. Retrofitting existing buildings to become more efficient will be necessary to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement; it will be insufficient to only apply low-emission standards to new construction.[114] Buildings that produce as much energy as they consume are called zero-energy buildings, while buildings that produce more than they consume are energy-plus. Low-energy buildings are designed to be highly efficient with low total energy consumption and carbon emissions—a popular type is the passive house.[113]
The global design and construction industry is responsible for approximately 39 percent of greenhouse gas emissions.[115]Green building practices that avoid emissions or capture the carbon already present in the environment, allow for reduced footprint of the construction industry, for example, use of hempcrete, cellulose fiber insulation, and landscaping.[116]
In 2019, the building sector was responsible for 12 GtCO2-eq emissions. More than 95% of these emissions were carbon, and the remaining 5% were CH4N2O and halocarbon.[117]
Industrial processes
As of 2020[update]Secunda CTL is the world's largest single emitter, at 56.5 million tonnes CO2 a year.[118]
Around 6% of emissions are fugitive emissions, which are waste gases released by the extraction of fossil fuels.
Steel and aluminum
Steel and aluminum are key economic sectors for the carbon capture and storage. According to a 2013 study, "in 2004, the steel industry along emits about 590M tons of CO2, which accounts for 5.2% of the global anthropogenic GHG emissions. CO2 emitted from steel production primarily comes from energy consumption of fossil fuel as well as the use of limestone to purify iron oxides."[119]
Plastics
Plastics are produced mainly from fossil fuels. It was estimated that between 3% and 4% of global GHG emissions are associated with plastics' life cycles.[120] The EPA estimates[121] as many as five mass units of carbon dioxide are emitted for each mass unit of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) produced—the type of plastic most commonly used for beverage bottles,[122] the transportation produce greenhouse gases also.[123] Plastic waste emits carbon dioxide when it degrades. In 2018 research claimed that some of the most common plastics in the environment release the greenhouse gases methane and ethylene when exposed to sunlight in an amount that can affect the earth climate.[124][125]
Due to the lightness of plastic versus glass or metal, plastic may reduce energy consumption. For example, packaging beverages in PET plastic rather than glass or metal is estimated to save 52% in transportation energy, if the glass or metal package is single-use, of course.
In 2019 a new report "Plastic and Climate" was published. According to the report, the production and incineration of plastics will contribute in the equivalent of 850 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere in 2019. With the current trend, annual life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of plastics will grow to 1.34 billion tonnes by 2030. By 2050, the life cycle emissions of plastics could reach 56 billion tonnes, as much as 14 percent of the Earth's remaining carbon budget.[126] The report says that only solutions which involve a reduction in consumption can solve the problem, while others like biodegradable plastic, ocean cleanup, using renewable energy in plastic industry can do little, and in some cases may even worsen it.[127]
The global print and paper industry accounts for about 1% of global carbon dioxide emissions.[128] Greenhouse gas emissions from the pulp and paper industry are generated from the combustion of fossil fuels required for raw material production and transportation, wastewater treatment facilities, purchased power, paper transportation, printed product transportation, disposal and recycling.
In 2020 data centers (excluding cryptocurrency mining) and data transmission each used about 1% of world electricity.[129] The digital sector produces between 2% and 4% of global GHG emissions,[130] a large part of which is from chipmaking.[131] However the sector reduces emissions from other sectors which have a larger global share, such as transport of people,[132] and possibly buildings and industry.[133]
Mining for proof-of-workcryptocurrencies requires enormous amounts of electricity and consequently comes with a large carbon footprint.[134] Proof-of-work blockchains such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Monero were estimated to have added between 3 million and 15 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere in the period from 1 January 2016 to 30 June 2017.[135] By the end of 2021, Bitcoin was estimated to produce 65.4 million tonnes of CO2, as much as Greece,[136] and consume between 91 and 177 terawatt-hours annually. Bitcoin is the least energy-efficient cryptocurrency, using 707.6 kilowatt-hours of electricity per transaction.[137][138][139]
Health care
The healthcare sector produces 4.4% - 4.6% of global greenhouse gas emissions.[140]
Water supply and sanitation
Water and sanitation services contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. These emissions are grouped into three scopes in the international greenhouse gas protocol: direct emissions, as well as two types of indirect emissions (see below).[141][142]: 9
Solutions exist to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions of water and sanitation services.[143] These solutions into three categories which partly overlap: Firstly "reducing water and energy consumption through lean and efficient approaches"; secondly "embracing circular economy to produce energy and valuable products"; and thirdly by "planning to reduce GHG emissions through strategic decisions".[142]: 28 The mentioned lean and efficient approaches include for example finding ways to reduce water loss from water networks and to reduce infiltration of rainwater or groundwater into sewers.[142]: 29 Also, incentives can to encourage households and industries to reduce their water consumption and their energy requirements for water heating.[142]: 31 There is another method to reduce the energy requirements for the treatment of raw water to make drinking water out of it: protecting the quality of the source water better.[142]: 32
Tourism
According to UNEP, global tourism is a significant contributor to the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.[144]
Emissions by other characteristics
The responsibility for anthropogenic climate change differs substantially among individuals, e.g. between groups or cohorts.
Generational
Researchers report that, on average, the elderly played "a leading role in driving up GHG emissions in the past decade and are on the way to becoming the largest contributor" due to factors such as demographic transition, low informed concern about climate change and high expenditures on carbon-intensive products like energy which is used i.a. for heating rooms and private transport.[145][146] They are less affected by climate change impacts,[147] but have e.g. the same vote-weights for the available electoral options.
By socio-economic class
Emissions of the richest 1% are more than twice that of the poorest 50%. Compliance with the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal would require the richest 1% to reduce emissions by at least 30 times, while per-person emissions of the poorest 50% could approximately triple.[148]
Though total CO2 emissions (size of pie charts) differ substantially among high-emitting regions, the pattern of higher income classes emitting more than lower income classes is consistent across regions.[149] The world’s top 1% of emitters emit over 1000 times more than the bottom 1%.[149]
Scaling the effect of wealth to the national level: richer (developed) countries emit more CO2 per person than poorer (developing) countries, the emission amounts being roughly proportional to GDP per person.[150]
Fueled by the consumptive lifestyle of wealthy people, the wealthiest 5% of the global population has been responsible for 37% of the absolute increase in greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. Almost half of the increase in absolute global emissions has been caused by the richest 10% of the population.[151] In the newest report from the IPCC 2022, it states that the lifestyle consumptions of the poor and middle class in emerging economies produce approximately 5–50 times less the amount that the high class in already developed high-income countries.[152][153] Variations in regional, and national per capita emissions partly reflect different development stages, but they also vary widely at similar income levels. The 10% of households with the highest per capita emissions contribute a disproportionately large share of global household GHG emissions.[153]
Studies find that the most affluent citizens of the world are responsible for most environmental impacts, and robust action by them is necessary for prospects of moving towards safer environmental conditions.[154][155]
According to a 2020 report by Oxfam and the Stockholm Environment Institute,[156][157] the richest 1% of the global population have caused twice as much carbon emissions as the poorest 50% over the 25 years from 1990 to 2015.[158][159][160] This was, respectively, during that period, 15% of cumulative emissions compared to 7%.[161] The bottom half of the population is directly-responsible for less than 20% of energy footprints and consume less than the top 5% in terms of trade-corrected energy. The largest disproportionality was identified to be in the domain of transport, where e.g. the top 10% consume 56% of vehicle fuel and conduct 70% of vehicle purchases.[162] However, wealthy individuals are also often shareholders and typically have more influence[163] and, especially in the case of billionaires, may also direct lobbying efforts, direct financial decisions, and/or control companies:
Greenhouse gas intensity is a ratio between greenhouse gas emissions and another metric, e.g., gross domestic product (GDP) or energy use. The terms "carbon intensity" and "emissions intensity" are also sometimes used.[164] Emission intensities may be calculated using market exchange rates (MER) or purchasing power parity (PPP).[19]: 96 Calculations based on MER show large differences in intensities between developed and developing countries, whereas calculations based on PPP show smaller differences. According to a study discussing the relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions, urbanization is becoming a huge player in the global carbon cycle. Depending on total carbon emissions done by a city that hasn't invested in carbon efficiency or improved resource management, the global carbon cycle is projected to reach 75% of the world population by 2030.[165]
Cumulative and historical emissions
Cumulative CO2 emission by world region
Cumulative per person emissions by world region in 3 time periods
CO2 Emissions by source since 1880
Cumulative anthropogenic (i.e., human-emitted) emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel use are a major cause of global warming,[166] and give some indication of which countries have contributed most to human-induced climate change. In particular, CO2 stays in the atmosphere for at least 150 years, whilst methane and nitrous oxides generally disappear within a decade or so. The graph gives some indication of which regions have contributed most to human-induced climate change.[167][168]: 15 When these numbers are calculated per capita cumulative emissions based on then-current population the situation is shown even more clearly. The ratio in per capita emissions between industrialized countries and developing countries was estimated at more than 10 to 1.
Non-OECD countries accounted for 42% of cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions between 1890 and 2007.[169]: 179–80 Over this time period, the US accounted for 28% of emissions; the EU, 23%; Japan, 4%; other OECD countries 5%; Russia, 11%; China, 9%; India, 3%; and the rest of the world, 18%.[169]: 179–80
Overall, developed countries accounted for 83.8% of industrial CO2 emissions over this time period, and 67.8% of total CO2 emissions. Developing countries accounted for industrial CO2 emissions of 16.2% over this time period, and 32.2% of total CO2 emissions.
Transport, together with electricity generation, is the major source of greenhouse gas emissions in the EU. Greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector continue to rise, in contrast to power generation and nearly all other sectors. Since 1990, transportation emissions have increased by 30%. The transportation sector accounts for around 70% of these emissions. The majority of these emissions are caused by passenger vehicles and vans. Road travel is the first major source of greenhouse gas emissions from transportation, followed by aircraft and maritime.[171][6] Waterborne transportation is still the least carbon-intensive mode of transportation on average, and it is an essential link in sustainablemultimodal freight supply chains.[172]
Buildings, like industry, are directly responsible for around one-fifth of greenhouse gas emissions, primarily from space heating and hot water consumption. When combined with power consumption within buildings, this figure climbs to more than one-third.[173][174][175]
Within the EU, the agricultural sector presently accounts for roughly 10% of total greenhouse gas emissions, with methane from livestock accounting for slightly more than half of 10%.[176]
Estimates of total CO2 emissions do include biotic carbon emissions, mainly from deforestation.[19]: 94 Including biotic emissions brings about the same controversy mentioned earlier regarding carbon sinks and land-use change.[19]: 93–94 The actual calculation of net emissions is very complex, and is affected by how carbon sinks are allocated between regions and the dynamics of the climate system.
Fossil fuel CO2 emissions on a log (natural and base 10) scale
The graphic shows the logarithm of 1850–2019 fossil fuel CO2 emissions;[64] natural log on left, actual value of Gigatons per year on right. Although emissions increased during the 170-year period by about 3% per year overall, intervals of distinctly different growth rates (broken at 1913, 1945, and 1973) can be detected. The regression lines suggest that emissions can rapidly shift from one growth regime to another and then persist for long periods of time. The most recent drop in emissions growth - by almost 3 percentage points - was at about the time of the 1970s energy crisis. Percent changes per year were estimated by piecewise linear regression on the log data and are shown on the plot; the data are from The Integrated Carbon Observation system.[177]
The sharp acceleration in CO2 emissions since 2000 to more than a 3% increase per year (more than 2 ppm per year) from 1.1% per year during the 1990s is attributable to the lapse of formerly declining trends in carbon intensity of both developing and developed nations. China was responsible for most of global growth in emissions during this period. Localised plummeting emissions associated with the collapse of the Soviet Union have been followed by slow emissions growth in this region due to more efficient energy use, made necessary by the increasing proportion of it that is exported.[36] In comparison, methane has not increased appreciably, and N 2O by 0.25% y−1.
Using different base years for measuring emissions has an effect on estimates of national contributions to global warming.[168]: 17–18 [178] This can be calculated by dividing a country's highest contribution to global warming starting from a particular base year, by that country's minimum contribution to global warming starting from a particular base year. Choosing between base years of 1750, 1900, 1950, and 1990 has a significant effect for most countries.[168]: 17–18 Within the G8 group of countries, it is most significant for the UK, France and Germany. These countries have a long history of CO2 emissions (see the section on Cumulative and historical emissions).
Embedded emissions
One way of attributing greenhouse gas emissions is to measure the embedded emissions (also referred to as "embodied emissions") of goods that are being consumed. Emissions are usually measured according to production, rather than consumption.[179] For example, in the main international treaty on climate change (the UNFCCC), countries report on emissions produced within their borders, e.g., the emissions produced from burning fossil fuels.[169]: 179 [180]: 1 Under a production-based accounting of emissions, embedded emissions on imported goods are attributed to the exporting, rather than the importing, country. Under a consumption-based accounting of emissions, embedded emissions on imported goods are attributed to the importing country, rather than the exporting, country.
Davis and Caldeira (2010)[180]: 4 found that a substantial proportion of CO2 emissions are traded internationally. The net effect of trade was to export emissions from China and other emerging markets to consumers in the US, Japan, and Western Europe.
Historical trends
The Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) continuously releases data about CO2 emissions, budget and concentration at individual observation stations.
Annual per capita emissions in the industrialized countries are typically as much as ten times the average in developing countries.[12]: 144 Due to China's fast economic development, its annual per capita emissions are quickly approaching the levels of those in the Annex I group of the Kyoto Protocol (i.e., the developed countries excluding the US).[183] Other countries with fast growing emissions are South Korea, Iran, and Australia (which apart from the oil rich Persian Gulf states, now has the highest per capita emission rate in the world). On the other hand, annual per capita emissions of the EU-15 and the US are gradually decreasing over time.[183] Emissions in Russia and Ukraine have decreased fastest since 1990 due to economic restructuring in these countries.[184]
Energy statistics for fast-growing economies are less accurate than those for industrialized countries.[183]
The greenhouse gas footprint refers to the emissions resulting from the creation of products or services. It is more comprehensive than the commonly used carbon footprint, which measures only carbon dioxide, one of many greenhouse gases.[citation needed]
2015 was the first year to see both total global economic growth and a reduction of carbon emissions.[185]
Top emitter countries
The top 40 countries emitting all greenhouse gases, showing both that derived from all sources including land clearance and forestry and also the CO2 component excluding those sources. Per capita figures are included. "World Resources Institute data".. Note that Indonesia and Brazil show very much higher than on graphs simply showing fossil fuel use.
In 2019, China, the United States, India, the EU27+UK, Russia, and Japan - the world's largest CO2 emitters - together accounted for 51% of the population, 62.5% of global gross domestic product, 62% of total global fossil fuel consumption and emitted 67% of total global fossil CO2. Emissions from these five countries and the EU28 show different changes in 2019 compared to 2018: the largest relative increase is found for China (+3.4%), followed by India (+1.6%). On the contrary, the EU27+UK (-3.8%), the United States (-2.6%), Japan (-2.1%) and Russia (-0.8%) reduced their fossil CO2 emissions.[186]
Despite having the largest emissions in the world, China's large population means its per person emissions have remained considerably lower than those in the developed world.[206] This corresponds to over 10.1 tonnes CO2eq emitted per person each year, slightly over the world average and the EU average but significantly lower than the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases, the United States, with its 17.6 tonnes per person.[206] Accounting for historic emissions, OECD countries produced four times more CO2 in cumulative emissions than China, due to developed countries' early start in industrialization.[204][206]
The targets laid out in China's Nationally Determined Contribution in 2016 will likely be met, but are not enough to properly combat global warming.[207] China has committed to peak emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2060.[208] In order to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C coal plants in China without carbon capture must be phased out by 2045.[209] China continues to build coal-fired power stations in 2020 and promised to "phase down" coal use from 2026.[210]
India
Greenhouse gas emissions by India are the third largest in the world and the main source is coal.[211] India emitted 2.8 Gt of CO2eq in 2016 (2.5 including LULUCF).[212][213] 79% were CO2, 14% methane and 5% nitrous oxide.[213] India emits about 3 gigatonnes (Gt) CO2eq of greenhouse gases each year; about two tons per person,[214] which is half the world average.[215] The country emits 7% of global emissions.[216]
As of 2019[update] these figures are quite uncertain, but a comprehensive greenhouse gas inventory is within reach.[217] Cutting greenhouse gas emissions, and therefore air pollution in India, would have health benefits worth 4 to 5 times the cost, which would be the most cost-effective in the world.[218]
The Paris Agreement commitments included a reduction of this intensity by 33–35% by 2030.[219] India's annual emissions per person are less than the global average,[220] and the UNEP forecasts that by 2030 they will be between 3 and 4 tonnes.[216]
In 2019 China is estimated to have emitted 27% of world GhG, followed by the US with 11%, then India with 6.6%.[221]
As carbon oxides are one important source of greenhouse gas, having means to reduce it is important. One suggestion, is to consider some means in relation to fiscal decentralisation. Previous research found that the linear term of fiscal decentralization promotes carbon emissions, while the non-linear term mitigates it.[clarification needed] It verified the inverted U-shaped curve between fiscal decentralization and carbon emissions.[example needed] Besides, increasing energy prices for non-renewable energy decrease carbon emission due to a substitution effect. Among other explanatory variables, improvement in the quality of institutions decreases carbon emissions, while the gross domestic product increases it. Strengthening fiscal decentralization, lowering non-renewable energy prices,[clarification needed] and improving institutional quality to check the deteriorating environmental quality in the study sample and other worldwide regions can reduce carbon emissions.[228]
Effect of policy
This section needs to be updated. Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information. (December 2019)
Countries and regions listed in Annex I of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (i.e., the OECD and former planned economies of the Soviet Union) are required to submit periodic assessments to the UNFCCC of actions they are taking to address climate change.[234]: 3
Climate change scenarios or socioeconomic scenarios are projections of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions used by analysts to assess future vulnerability to climate change.[235] Scenarios and pathways are created by scientists[236] to survey any long term routes and explore the effectiveness of mitigation and helps us understand what the future may hold this will allow us to envision the future of human environment system.[236] Producing scenarios requires estimates of future population levels, economic activity, the structure of governance, social values, and patterns of technological change. Economic and energy modelling (such as the World3 or the POLES models) can be used to analyze and quantify the effects of such drivers.
Scientists can develop separate international, regional and national climate change scenarios. These scenarios are designed to help stakeholders understand what kinds of decisions will have meaningful effects on climate change mitigation or adaptation. Most countries developing adaptation plans or Nationally Determined Contributions will commission scenario studies in order to better understand the decisions available to them.
In 2020, carbon dioxide emissions fell by 6.4% or 2.3 billion tonnes globally.[238] In April 2020, NOx emissions fell by up to 30%.[239] In China, lockdowns and other measures resulted in a 26% decrease in coal consumption, and a 50% reduction in nitrogen oxide emissions.[240] Greenhouse gas emissions rebounded later in the pandemic as many countries began lifting restrictions, with the direct impact of pandemic policies having a negligible long-term impact on climate change.[238][241] However, decreased human activity during the pandemic diverted attention from ongoing activities such as accelerated deforestation of the Amazon rainforest.[242][243] The hindrance of environmental policy efforts, combined with economic slowdown may have contributed to slowed investment in green energy technologies.[244][245]
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^"The Link Between Plastic Use and Climate Change: Nitty-gritty". stanfordmag.org. 2009. Retrieved 5 March 2021. ... According to the EPA, approximately one ounce of carbon dioxide is emitted for each ounce of polyethylene (PET) produced. PET is the type of plastic most commonly used for beverage bottles. ...'
^Glazner, Elizabeth (21 November 2017). "Plastic Pollution and Climate Change". Plastic Pollution Coalition. Plastic Pollution Coalition. Retrieved 6 August 2018.
^Plastic & Climate The Hidden Costs of a Plastic Planet(PDF). Center for International Environmental Law, Environmental Integrity Project, FracTracker Alliance, Global Alliance for Incinerator Alternatives, 5 Gyres, and Break Free From Plastic. May 2019. pp. 82–85. Retrieved 20 May 2019.
^Freitag, Charlotte; Berners-Lee, Mike (December 2020). "The climate impact of ICT: A review of estimates, trends and regulations". arXiv:2102.02622 [physics.soc-ph].
^Krause, Max J.; Tolaymat, Thabet (November 2018). "Quantification of energy and carbon costs for mining cryptocurrencies". Nature Sustainability. 1 (11): 711–718. doi:10.1038/s41893-018-0152-7. S2CID169170289.
^ abCozzi, Laura; Chen, Olivia; Kim, Hyeji (22 February 2023). "The world's top 1% of emitters produce over 1000 times more CO2 than the bottom 1%". iea.org. International Energy Agency (IEA). Archived from the original on 3 March 2023. "Methodological note: ... The analysis accounts for energy-related CO2, and not other greenhouse gases, nor those related to land use and agriculture."
^Berkhout, Esmé; Galasso, Nick; Lawson, Max; Rivero Morales, Pablo Andrés; Taneja, Anjela; Vázquez Pimentel, Diego Alejo (25 January 2021). "The Inequality Virus". Oxfam International. Archived from the original on 28 October 2021. Retrieved 28 October 2021.
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^Shan, Shan; Ahmad, Munir; Tan, Zhixiong; Adebayo, Tomiwa Sunday; Man Li, Rita Yi; Kirikkaleli, Dervis (November 2021). "The role of energy prices and non-linear fiscal decentralization in limiting carbon emissions: Tracking environmental sustainability". Energy. 234: 121243. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2021.121243. ISSN0360-5442.
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![Annual greenhouse gas emissions per person (height of vertical bars) and per country (area inside vertical bars)[1]](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f3/20210626_Variwide_chart_of_greenhouse_gas_emissions_per_capita_by_country.svg/660px-20210626_Variwide_chart_of_greenhouse_gas_emissions_per_capita_by_country.svg.png)
![In the highest-emitting countries, emission trends in recent decades sometimes diverge from longer-term historical trends.[2][3]](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8b/Worldwide_CO2_Emissions.svg/660px-Worldwide_CO2_Emissions.svg.png)
![Data from:[1] [2] [3]](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/86/Data_on_climate_change_around_the_world.png/660px-Data_on_climate_change_around_the_world.png)
![Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of electricity supply technologies, median values calculated by IPCC[54]](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/44/CO2_Emissions_from_Electricity_Production_IPCC.png/440px-CO2_Emissions_from_Electricity_Production_IPCC.png)
![Lifecycle GHG emissions, in g CO2 eq. per kWh, UNECE 2020[56]](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ea/UNECE_2020_Lifecycle_Emissions.png/440px-UNECE_2020_Lifecycle_Emissions.png)
![Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Economic Sector according to IPCC Fifth Assessment Report[citation needed]](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/af/Greenhouse_Gas_Emissions_by_Economic_Sector.svg/440px-Greenhouse_Gas_Emissions_by_Economic_Sector.svg.png)
![2016 global greenhouse gas emissions by sector.[77] Percentages are calculated from estimated global emissions of all Kyoto Greenhouse Gases, converted to CO2 equivalent quantities (GtCO2e).](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0b/Global_GHG_Emissions_by_Sector_2016.png/800px-Global_GHG_Emissions_by_Sector_2016.png)
![Mean annual carbon loss from tropical deforestation.[102]](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/af/Spatial_pattern_of_forest_carbon_loss_across_the_tropics.webp/440px-Spatial_pattern_of_forest_carbon_loss_across_the_tropics.webp.png)
![Substantial land-use change contributions to emissions have been made by Latin America, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Pacific Islands. Area of rectangles shows total emissions for that region.[104]](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e1/2019_Greenhouse_gas_emissions_per_capita_by_region_-_variwide_bar_chart_-_IPCC_AR6_WG3_-_Fig_SPM.2c.svg/660px-2019_Greenhouse_gas_emissions_per_capita_by_region_-_variwide_bar_chart_-_IPCC_AR6_WG3_-_Fig_SPM.2c.svg.png)
![Transportation in the United States is the largest source of greenhouse gas[187]](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/ba/Atlanta_75.85.jpg/602px-Atlanta_75.85.jpg)
![The U.S. has among the highest per person emissions, of the countries that emit the most greenhouse gases.[188]](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0d/20210703_Variwide_chart_of_greenhouse_gas_emissions_per_capita_by_country_%28includes_OTHER%29.svg/660px-20210703_Variwide_chart_of_greenhouse_gas_emissions_per_capita_by_country_%28includes_OTHER%29.svg.png)
