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LePage: 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Cutler: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% >90% Mitchell: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% Tie: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Maine |
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The 2010 Maine gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2010 to elect the governor of Maine. Incumbent Democratic governor John Baldacci was term-limited and could not seek re-election to a third consecutive term. Primary elections took place on June 8, 2010. The candidates who appeared on the November ballot were (in alphabetical order by last name): Eliot Cutler (Independent), Paul LePage (Republican), Libby Mitchell (Democratic), Shawn Moody (Independent), and Kevin Scott (Independent).[1]
With 94% of precincts reporting on the day after the election, the Bangor Daily News declared LePage the winner, carrying 38.1% of the votes.[2] Cutler was in second place with 36.7% of the votes (less than 7,500 votes behind LePage), while Mitchell was a distant third with 19%.[2] Moody and Scott had 5% and 1%, respectively.[2] Two days after the election, with 99% of precincts reporting, LePage's lead over Cutler had widened to more than 10,000 votes.[3] This election was the first since 1990 that Maine elected a Republican governor.
Poll source | Dates administered | Mitchell | Rowe | Scarcelli | McGowan | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pan Atlantic SMS Group | May 21–29, 2010 | 13.3% | 11.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 61.7% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Elizabeth "Libby" Mitchell | 42,328 | 34.4 | |
Democratic | G. Steven Rowe | 27,923 | 22.7 | |
Democratic | Rosa Scarcelli | 26,444 | 21.5 | |
Democratic | Patrick K. McGowan | 24,392 | 19.8 | |
Democratic | John Richardson | 1,604 | 1.3 | |
Democratic | Write-in | 236 | 0.3 | |
Total votes | 122,927 | 100 |
At 11:32 p.m. EDT, WCSH declared Libby Mitchell the winner of the Democratic primary.[24]
Poll source | Dates administered | Otten | LePage | Mills | Abbott | Beardsley | Poliquin | Jacobson | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MECPO [45] | May 22-June 2, 2010 | 17.0% | 10.7% | 22.1% | 13.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 1.4% | 24.0% |
Pan Atlantic SMS Group | May 21–29, 2010 | 17.0% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 47.0% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Paul LePage | 49,126 | 37.4 | |
Republican | Les Otten | 22,945 | 17.4 | |
Republican | Peter Mills | 19,271 | 14.7 | |
Republican | Steve Abbott | 17,209 | 13.1 | |
Republican | William "Bill" Beardsley | 12,061 | 9.2 | |
Republican | Bruce Poliquin | 6,471 | 4.9 | |
Republican | Matt Jacobson | 4,324 | 3.3 | |
Total votes | 131,407 | 100 |
At 11:19 p.m. EDT, WCSH declared Paul LePage the winner of the GOP primary.[46]
The Maine Green Independent Party did not have a gubernatorial candidate on the ballot, as no candidate collected required number of signatures.[65]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Cook Political Report[69] | Tossup | October 14, 2010 |
Rothenberg[70] | Tilt R (flip) | October 28, 2010 |
RealClearPolitics[71] | Likely R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[72] | Lean R (flip) | October 28, 2010 |
CQ Politics[73] | Lean D | October 28, 2010 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Paul LePage (R) | Libby Mitchell (D) | Eliot Cutler (I) | Shawn Moody (I) | Kevin Scott (I) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MPRC / Down East Magazine | October 28–30, 2010 | 546 | ± 4.19% | 39% | 24% | 29% | 4% | 1% | 2% |
Critical Insights / MaineToday Media | October 27–28, 2010 | 621 | ± 4% | 40% | 21% | 21% | 4% | 1% | 11% |
Pan Atlantic SMS | October 25–28, 2010 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 38.6% | 21.8% | 30.6% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 7.3% |
Public Policy Polling | October 26–28, 2010 | 1,812 | ± 2.3% | 40% | 24% | 28% | 4% | 1% | 2% |
Rasmussen Reports | October 26, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 40% | 26% | 26% | - | - | 5% |
Critical Insights | October 13–17, 2010 | 600 | ± 4% | 32% | 20% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 21% |
Pan Atlantic SMS | October 11–15, 2010 | 501 | ± 4.4% | 32.9% | 28.0% | 14.0% | 4.6% | 0.4% | 20.2% |
Rasmussen Reports | October 12, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 35% | 32% | 21% | * | * | 6% |
Critical Insights / MaineToday Media | October 10–11, 2010 | 605 | ± 4% | 32% | 26% | 11% | 5 | 1 | 26% |
Pine Tree Politics / Maine Center for Public Opinion | October 4–7, 2010 | 679 | ± 3.76% | 29.6% | 28.7% | 11.1% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 24.1% |
Critical Insights / MaineToday Media | September 27, 2010 | 405 | ± 4.9% | 29% | 30% | 9% | 5% | 0% | 26% |
Rasmussen Reports | September 20, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 45% | 27% | 14% | * | * | 10% |
Critical Insights / MaineToday Media | September 13, 2010 | 603 | ± 4% | 38% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 21% |
Public Policy Polling | September 2–6, 2010 | 1,468 | ± 2.6% | 43% | 29% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 12% |
Rasmussen Reports | August 12, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 38% | 30% | 16% | * | * | 11% |
Rasmussen Reports | July 14, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 31% | 15% | * | * | 12% |
Rasmussen Reports | June 10, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 43% | 36% | 7% | * | * | 14% |
* Shawn Moody and Kevin Scott, two Independent candidates who appeared on the ballot, were not offered as choices in the Rasmussen polls.[74]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Paul LePage | 218,065 | 37.6% | +7.39% | |
Independent | Eliot Cutler | 208,270 | 35.9% | — | |
Democratic | Libby Mitchell | 109,387 | 18.8% | -19.31% | |
Independent | Shawn Moody | 28,756 | 5.0% | — | |
Independent | Kevin Scott | 5,664 | 1.0% | ||
Majority | 9,795 | 1.7% | -6.2 | ||
Turnout | 580,538 | +29,673 | |||
Republican gain from Democratic | Swing |