2022 United States Senate election in Utah

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Mike Lee, official portrait (cropped).jpg
Evan McMullin October 2019.png
Nominee Mike Lee Evan McMullin
Party Republican Independent

Incumbent U.S. senator

Mike Lee
Republican



The 2022 United States Senate election in Utah will be held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Utah. Incumbent Senator Mike Lee is running for reelection, he was first elected in 2010. This will be the first Senate election in Utah’s history where there is no Democratic nominee, as the Utah Democratic Party chose to endorse Evan McMullin, an independent candidate.

Republican primary

Incumbent U.S. Senator Mike Lee won over 70% of the vote at the Utah Republican Party state convention on April 23, 2022, and is considered by the party to be its nominee, though a primary would still be held. Two other candidates gathered enough signatures to qualify for the primary on June 28, 2022.[1]

Candidates

Nominee

Former state representative Becky Edwards finished second in the primary
Former state representative Becky Edwards finished second in the primary
Businesswoman Ally Isom finished third in the primary
Businesswoman Ally Isom finished third in the primary

Eliminated in primary

Eliminated at convention

Did not file

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Mike Lee

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Evan
Barlow
Loy
Brunson
Becky
Edwards
Jeremy
Friedbaum
Laird
Hamblin
Ally
Isom
Tyrone
Jensen
Mike
Lee
Brendan
Wright
Other Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates May 7–13, 2022 503 (LV) ± 4.3% 19% 6% 49% 26%
Dan Jones & Associates March 9–21, 2022 484 (LV) ± 4.5% 6% 1% 19% 2% 1% 4% 67%
OH Predictive Insights February 7–14, 2022 366 (RV) ± 5.1% 5% 2% 2% 51% 2% 37%
Dan Jones & Associates October 14–21, 2021 469 (LV) ± 4.5% 7% 2% 53% 6% 32%
OH Predictive Insights August 2–8, 2021 337 (RV) ± 5.3% 3% 2% 45% 3% 48%
RMG Research June 24–25, 2021 587 (LV) ± 4.0% 11% 47% 8% 33%

Results

Convention

State Republican Convention results, 2022
Candidate First ballot Pct.
Mike Lee 2,621 70.74%
Becky Edwards 436 11.77%
Ally Isom 358 9.66%
Jeremy Friedbaum 132 3.56%
Evan Barlow 75 2.02%
Loy Brunson 71 1.92%
Laird Hamblin 12 0.32%
Total 3,705 100.00%

Primary

Results by county:  .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}  Lee   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%
Results by county:
  Lee
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results[24]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mike Lee (incumbent) 258,089 61.9
Republican Becky Edwards 123,617 29.7
Republican Ally Isom 34,997 8.4
Total votes 416,703 100.0

Democratic convention

The Utah Democratic Party state convention took place on April 23, 2022.[25] Kael Weston was the only Democrat still running; however, the party endorsed Evan McMullin's independent bid in lieu of nominating a candidate,[26] following encouragement from many prominent Democrats in the state, including former Rep. Ben McAdams and Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson, to back McMullin's campaign.

Candidates

Eliminated at convention

former U.S. State Department official Kael Weston
former U.S. State Department official Kael Weston

Did not file

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Kael Weston
Statewide official

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Allen
Glines
Nicholas
Mitchell
Steve
Schmidt
Austin
Searle
Kael
Weston
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights February 7–14, 2022 110 (RV) ± 9.3% 2% 5% 16% 2% 14% 60%

Convention vote

The Utah Democratic Party held a state convention on April 23, 2022, to endorse candidates for state offices.[35][36][37] Supporters of independent candidate Evan McMullin, led by Salt Lake County mayor Jenny Wilson, introduced a motion for the state party to forgo nominating a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate and to instead "join Evan McMullin’s independent coalition to beat Mike Lee",[36] contending that not doing so would split the anti-Lee vote in the general election.[36][37] The motion was opposed by supporters of Kael Weston, the lone Democratic candidate for the seat who thus would have received the nomination had the motion failed.[37] The delegates passed the motion by a 57%–43% margin.[36][37]

Motion to endorse independent candidate Evan McMullin[37]
Option Votes %
Yes check.svg Yes 782 56.83%
X mark.svg No 594 43.17%
Total 1,376 100.00%

Libertarian convention

Hansen May 2022
Hansen May 2022

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated at convention

Independent American convention

Candidates

Declared

Independents

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[43] Solid R March 4, 2022
Inside Elections[44] Solid R July 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[45] Likely R June 15, 2022
Politico[46] Likely R April 1, 2022
RCP[47] Safe R June 14, 2022
Fox News[48] Solid R May 12, 2022
DDHQ[49] Solid R July 20, 2022
538[50] Solid R July 6, 2022

Endorsements

Mike Lee (R)
Evan McMullin (I)
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Declined to endorse
U.S. Senators

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Mike
Lee (R)
Evan
McMullin (I)
Undecided
[b]
Margin
FiveThirtyEight June 15 – July 18, 2022 July 20, 2022 45.5% 35.9% 18.6% Lee +9.6
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Mike
Lee (R)
Evan
McMullin (I)
Other Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates July 13–18, 2022 801 (RV) ± 3.5% 41% 36% 14% 8%
WPA Intelligence (R)[A] July 12–14, 2022 529 (LV) ± 4.3% 49% 35% 10% 5%
Momentive (D)[B] July 12, 2022 561 (A) ± 4.1% 43% 32% 26%
434 (RV) ± 4.7% 44% 34% 22%
213 (LV) ± 6.7% 50% 36% 15%
WPA Intelligence (R)[A] June 14–16, 2022 300 (LV) ± 5.7% 52% 33% 15%
Dan Jones & Associates May 24 – June 15, 2022 803 (RV) ± 3.5% 41% 35% 4% 20%
Dan Jones & Associates May 24 – June 4, 2022 810 (RV) ± 3.5% 41% 37% 4% 19%
Momentive (D)[B] March 5, 2022 683 (A) ± 3.7% 31% 26% 44%
– (RV) 33% 27% 40%
– (LV) 38% 30% 32%
Hypothetical polling
Becky Edwards vs. Evan McMullin
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Becky
Edwards (R)
Evan
McMullin (I)
Other Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates May 24 – June 15, 2022 803 (RV) ± 3.5% 31% 29% 7% 34%
Dan Jones & Associates May 24 – June 4, 2022 810 (RV) ± 3.5% 29% 28% 6% 37%
Ally Isom vs. Evan McMullin
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Ally
Isom (R)
Evan
McMullin (I)
Other Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates May 24 – June 15, 2022 803 (RV) ± 3.5% 24% 34% 7% 36%
Dan Jones & Associates May 24 – June 4, 2022 810 (RV) ± 3.5% 23% 34% 7% 36%
Mike Lee vs. Kael Weston vs. Evan McMullin
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Mike
Lee (R)
Kael
Weston (D)
Evan
McMullin (I)
Other Undecided
Moore Information Group (R) March 20–24, 2022 400 (LV) ± 5.0% 49% 13% 25% 1% 12%
Dan Jones & Associates March 9–21, 2022 804 (RV) ± 3.5% 43% 11% 19% 3% 24%
OH Predictive Insights February 7–14, 2022 739 (RV) ± 3.6% 34% 12% 24% 30%
Mike Lee vs. Steve Schmidt vs. Evan McMullin
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Mike
Lee (R)
Steve
Schmidt (D)
Evan
McMullin (I)
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights February 7–14, 2022 739 (RV) ± 3.6% 36% 11% 23% 30%
Mike Lee vs. Steve Schmidt
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Mike
Lee (R)
Steve
Schmidt (D)
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights February 7–14, 2022 739 (RV) ± 3.6% 45% 25% 30%
Mike Lee vs. Kael Weston
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Mike
Lee (R)
Kael
Weston (D)
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights February 7–14, 2022 739 (RV) ± 3.6% 45% 25% 30%

Results

2022 United States Senate election in Utah
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Mike Lee (incumbent)
Independent Evan McMullin N/A
Libertarian James Hansen N/A
Independent American Tommy Williams
Write-in N/A
Total votes 100.00% N/A

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Lee's campaign
  2. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Lee

References

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  2. ^ Schott, Bryan (February 9, 2021). "In fundraising appeal, Sen. Mike Lee claims the anti-Trump Lincoln Project is gunning for him next year". The Salt Lake Tribune. Archived from the original on March 9, 2021. Retrieved March 14, 2021.
  3. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on July 15, 2021. Retrieved February 24, 2021.((cite web)): CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
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  5. ^ "Meet Ally Isom, the latest Republican seeking to defeat Utah Sen. Mike Lee in 2022". The Salt Lake Tribune. Archived from the original on July 15, 2021. Retrieved July 15, 2021.
  6. ^ a b Vandenack, Tim (February 10, 2022). "WSU prof vying for US Senate switches to GOP, cites McMullin entry". Standard-Examiner.
  7. ^ a b c d "A stampede of candidates running for office as Utah's filing period ends". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved March 9, 2022.
  8. ^ Vandenack, Tim (March 1, 2022). "US Senate hopeful Kael Weston says his candidacy gives voters a choice". Standard-Examiner.
  9. ^ a b "US Senate candidate Becky Edwards visits Southern Utah during campaign to unseat Mike Lee". St George News. November 24, 2021.
  10. ^ "Ty Jensen Pledges to Support Term Limits on Congress". U.S. Term Limits. November 10, 2021. Retrieved January 18, 2022.
  11. ^ Richards, Connor (March 8, 2021). "Utah County Republican announces 2022 U.S. Senate run". Daily Herald. Archived from the original on March 16, 2021. Retrieved May 16, 2021. Brendan Wright, of Lehi, announced on Saturday, March 6 that he is running in 2022 for the U.S. Senate seat currently filled by Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah.
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  13. ^ Epstein, Harrison (January 31, 2022). "Edwards campaign gathering signatures across state for Senate run". Standard-Examiner. Daily Herald. Archived from the original on January 31, 2022. Retrieved February 9, 2022.
  14. ^ Webb, LaVarr (March 8, 2021). "Analysis: GOP hopefuls are testing the water against Mike Lee in 2022". Utah Policy. Archived from the original on March 8, 2021. Retrieved March 8, 2021.
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  16. ^ Romboy, Dennis (April 1, 2022). "Donald Trump endorses Mike Lee, goes after Evan 'McMuffin' and Mitt Romney at the same time". Deseret News. Archived from the original on April 2, 2022. Retrieved April 2, 2022.
  17. ^ "Club for Growth - PAC Endorsed Candidates". Club for Growth - PAC Endorsed Candidates. Retrieved January 28, 2022.
  18. ^ "FreedomWorks for America Endorses Mike Lee in the Utah U.S. Senate Race". www.freedomworksforamerica.org. August 17, 2021. Retrieved January 10, 2022.
  19. ^ a b "Turning Point Action". Turning Point Action - Endorsements. Retrieved January 28, 2022.
  20. ^ a b "2022 National Endorsements". Republican Liberty Caucus. Retrieved May 16, 2022.
  21. ^ "Eagle Forum PAC Endorses Senator Mike Lee for U.S. Senate in Utah". April 21, 2022. Retrieved May 16, 2022.
  22. ^ Walters, Ian. "The American Conservative Union (ACU) today announced its endorsement of Senator Mike Lee for re-election, the leading conservative in Upper Chamber of Congress". American Conservative Union. Retrieved June 26, 2022.
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  24. ^ "2022 Candidate Filings". Office of the Lieutenant Governor of Utah. Retrieved February 28, 2022.
  25. ^ "County Conventions". Utah Democratic Party. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
  26. ^ McKellar, Katie [@KatieMcKellar1] (April 23, 2022). "@UtahDemocrats BREAKING: Option 1, to nominate @KaelWeston got 595 votes. Option 2, to join @EvanMcMullin got over 700 votes. @UtahDemocrats delegates have voted to NOT put forth own candidate #utpol" (Tweet). Archived from the original on April 24, 2022. Retrieved May 15, 2022 – via Twitter.
  27. ^ "Kael Weston: Utah's people and land deserve better protections". The Salt Lake Tribune. January 27, 2022.
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  29. ^ "He's Black. He's a returned missionary. He's LGBTQ. And he's challenging Utah Sen. Mike Lee". Desert News. October 6, 2021. Archived from the original on October 7, 2021. Retrieved October 7, 2021.
  30. ^ Glines, Allen [@AllenBGlines] (March 8, 2022). "Today I ended my campaign because I needed to attend to a family matter. I appreciate everyone's support. My website is now down and my ActBlue account is discontinued. Once I'm able, I'll be back to continue to fight for the causes I believe in. I hope you'll join me" (Tweet). Archived from the original on March 10, 2022. Retrieved May 15, 2022 – via Twitter.
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  38. ^ Hansen, James [@JamesArtHansen] (April 9, 2022). "Happy to accept the Utah Libertarian Party nomination for the US Senate! #libertarianutah #utpol #jimmyforutah t.co/XQkYFdgPxP" (Tweet). Archived from the original on April 26, 2022. Retrieved May 15, 2022 – via Twitter.
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  53. ^ "Club for Growth - PAC Endorsed Candidates". Club for Growth - PAC Endorsed Candidates. Retrieved January 28, 2022.
  54. ^ "FreedomWorks for America Endorses Mike Lee in the Utah U.S. Senate Race". www.freedomworksforamerica.org. August 17, 2021. Retrieved January 10, 2022.
  55. ^ "Eagle Forum PAC Endorses Senator Mike Lee for U.S. Senate in Utah". April 21, 2022. Retrieved May 16, 2022.
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  58. ^ "'The Rundown': Ken Ivory wants to return to the Utah Legislature". The Salt Lake Tribune. November 1, 2021.
  59. ^ "How do polls rank Mike Lee against Evan McMullin for Senate?". Deseret News. March 30, 2022.
  60. ^ a b Benson, Samuel (July 29, 2022). "Evan McMullin Thinks He Knows How to Defeat Trumpism". POLITICO.
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  62. ^ "Will Andrew Yang run for president in 2024?". Deseret News. June 10, 2022.
  63. ^ Political Endorsements
  64. ^ "Anti-Trump Republicans endorsing vulnerable Democrats to prevent GOP takeover". The Hill. October 14, 2021.
  65. ^ "United Utah Party endorses Evan McMullin for US Senate". KSL. April 16, 2022.
  66. ^ "How bad do Utah Democrats want Mike Lee out? Bad enough to ditch their own nominee and back Evan McMullin instead". Deseret News. April 23, 2022.
  67. ^ "Utah Solidarity Party Endorses Evan McMullin for U.S. Senate". April 19, 2022.
  68. ^ "Don't expect Mitt Romney to take sides in U.S. Senate race". The Salt Lake Tribune. March 10, 2022. Retrieved July 6, 2022.
Official campaign websites