| ||||||||||||||||||||
Turnout | 60.5% | |||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Shapiro: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Mastriano: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | ||||||||||||||||||||
|
Elections in Pennsylvania |
---|
Government |
The 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Pennsylvania and lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania. State Attorney General Josh Shapiro defeated State Senator Doug Mastriano by 14.8 percentage points to succeed term-limited incumbent governor Tom Wolf (D). Primaries were held on May 17, 2022. Shapiro won the Democratic nomination after running unopposed and Mastriano won the Republican nomination with 44% of the vote. Mastriano's nomination drew attention due to his far-right political views.[1][2][3][4]
Pennsylvania only voted for President Joe Biden by 1.2% in 2020 and many Republicans were hopeful that they could pick up the governorship. Days before the Republican primary, multiple Republican candidates dropped out and endorsed former congressman Lou Barletta as they believed that Mastriano would lose a general election.[5][6] After his primary win, Mastriano had trouble fundraising, made few media appearances, made multiple gaffes and was accused of antisemitism against Shapiro.[7][8] Shapiro ultimately defeated Mastriano by almost 15 points, a margin consistent with most polls. Shapiro's landslide victory did not come as a surprise to many political pundits, despite many of them predicting a favorable environment for Republicans.[9]
Shapiro scored the largest margin for a non-incumbent candidate for Pennsylvania governor since 1946,[10][11] and his victory marked the first time since 1844 that the Democratic Party won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in Pennsylvania. Shapiro also made history by earning the most votes of any gubernatorial candidate in the state's history, garnering just over three million votes. Austin Davis was elected lieutenant governor, and became the second African-American elected to statewide office in the state's history, following Timothy DeFoor in 2020.
Shapiro's large margin of victory has been widely credited with helping down-ballot Democrats in concurrent elections.
Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro ran unopposed and was described as the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee by The Philadelphia Inquirer and the Pennsylvania Capital-Star early in the campaign, with the Capital-Star reporting that efforts to recruit a primary challenger to the left of Shapiro (who is considered a progressive by the paper) had failed.[12][13]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Josh Shapiro | Unopposed | |||
Total votes | 1,227,151 | 100.0% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Austin Davis | 768,141 | 63.00% | |
Democratic | Brian Sims | 305,959 | 25.09% | |
Democratic | Ray Sosa | 145,228 | 11.91% | |
Total votes | 1,219,328 | 100.0% |
In the Republican primary, leading candidates included former Congressman Lou Barletta, Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Gale, political strategist Charlie Gerow, former U.S. Attorney William McSwain, State Senator Doug Mastriano and former Delaware County Councilmember Dave White.
Several key issues, such as school choice, natural gas exploration in PA, and tax reform, were early themes in the Pennsylvania GOP debates before the primary election,[78] while voting laws in the Commonwealth were a later topic of debate.[79]
Due to his support for overturning the results of the 2020 presidential election and his role in the January 6 U.S. Capitol attack, many Republicans expressed concern about Mastriano's ability to win the general election. As a result, the party encouraged other candidates to drop out to allow for an alternative to Mastriano to gain traction.[80]
On May 12, president pro tempore of the Pennsylvania Senate Jake Corman dropped out and endorsed Barletta.[5] On May 14, former president Donald Trump endorsed Mastriano.[81][82] On May 12, The Philadelphia Inquirer reported that former U.S. Representative Melissa Hart would also drop out and endorse Barletta.[6] Mastriano won the primary with almost 44% of the vote, defeating his nearest competitor, Barletta, by over 23 points.
The New York Times reported in mid-June that Mastriano had been aided in the primary by the Pennsylvania Democratic Party and Shapiro's campaign with an ad equating him to Trump. Shapiro defended the move, saying the ad demonstrated the contrast between him and Mastriano as part of the general election campaign. The Times saw it as part of a nationwide strategy to gain easier opponents in November.[83]
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant N Non-invitee |
||||||||||||
Lou Barletta | Jake Corman | Joe Gale | Charlie Gerow | Melissa Hart | Doug Mastriano | William McSwain | Dave White | |||||
1 | Apr 27, 2022 | ABC 27 | Dennis Owens Lisa Sylvester |
P | N | N | N | N | P | P | P |
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Lou Barletta |
Jake Corman |
Doug Mastriano |
William McSwain |
Dave White |
Other [a] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics | May 3–16, 2022 | May 17, 2022 | 20.3% | 2.7% | 34.3% | 15.3% | 9.8% | 17.6% | Mastriano +14.0 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Lou Barletta |
Jake Corman |
Scott Martin |
Doug Mastriano |
William McSwain |
Dave White |
Other | Undecided | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Trafalgar Group (R) | May 14–16, 2022 | 1,195 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 25% | – | – | 37% | 17% | 10% | 6%[c] | 5% | |||||
Emerson College | May 14–15, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 22% | 2% | – | 34% | 12% | 9% | 7%[d] | 15% | |||||
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | May 12–15, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 15% | 1% | – | 29% | 18% | 8% | 6%[e] | 24% | |||||
Hart withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Corman withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
The Trafalgar Group (R) | May 6–8, 2022 | 1,080 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 18% | 5% | – | 28% | 14% | 15% | 9%[f] | 11% | |||||
Fox News | May 3–7, 2022 | 1,001 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 17% | 5% | – | 29% | 13% | 11% | 9%[g] | 15% | |||||
Franklin & Marshall College | April 20 – May 1, 2022 | 325 (RV) | ± 6.9% | 11% | 1% | – | 20% | 12% | 8% | 11%[h] | 34% | |||||
The Trafalgar Group (R) | April 11–13, 2022 | 1,074 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 19% | 3% | – | 22% | 17% | 11% | 8%[i] | 19% | |||||
Franklin & Marshall College | March 30 – April 10, 2022 | 317 (RV) | ± 6.6% | 10% | 2% | – | 15% | 12% | 5% | 14%[j] | 40% | |||||
Eagle Consulting Group (R) | April 7–9, 2022 | 502 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 11% | – | – | 19% | 13% | 7% | 6% | 44% | |||||
Emerson College | April 3–4, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 20% | 4% | – | 19% | 8% | 12% | 11%[k] | 27% | |||||
Emerson College | March 26–28, 2022 | 372 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 12% | 2% | – | 16% | 6% | 6% | 8%[l] | 49% | |||||
Fox News | March 2–6, 2022 | 517 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 19% | 6% | 3% | 18% | 11% | 14% | 2%[m] | 25% | |||||
The Trafalgar Group (R) | February 1–4, 2022 | 1,070 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 24% | 5% | 4% | 20% | 4% | – | 14% | 29% | |||||
Public Policy Polling (D)[A] | November 9–10, 2021 | 648 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 14% | 4% | 3% | 18% | 2% | 1% | 4%[n] | 56% | |||||
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | September 24–30, 2021 | 313 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 27% | – | 6% | – | 0% | – | 6%[o] | 60% | |||||
WPA Intelligence (R)[B] | May 10–12, 2021 | 826 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 16% | – | – | 19% | – | – | 17%[p] | 49% | |||||
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | February 16–24, 2021 | 272 (LV) | ± 5.9% | 20% | – | – | 11% | 3% | – | 8%[q] | 60% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Doug Mastriano | 591,240 | 43.81% | |
Republican | Lou Barletta | 273,252 | 20.25% | |
Republican | William McSwain | 212,886 | 15.78% | |
Republican | Dave White | 129,058 | 9.56% | |
Republican | Melissa Hart (withdrawn)[r] | 54,752 | 4.06% | |
Republican | Joe Gale | 27,920 | 2.07% | |
Republican | Jake Corman (withdrawn)[r] | 26,091 | 1.93% | |
Republican | Charlie Gerow | 17,922 | 1.33% | |
Republican | Nche Zama | 16,238 | 1.20% | |
Total votes | 1,349,359 | 100.00% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Carrie DelRosso | 318,970 | 25.59% | |
Republican | Rick Saccone | 195,774 | 15.71% | |
Republican | Teddy Daniels | 150,935 | 12.11% | |
Republican | Clarice Schillinger | 148,442 | 11.91% | |
Republican | Jeff Coleman | 126,072 | 10.11% | |
Republican | James Jones | 113,966 | 9.14% | |
Republican | Russ Diamond | 74,265 | 5.96% | |
Republican | John Brown | 59,267 | 4.75% | |
Republican | Chris Frye | 58,752 | 4.71% | |
Total votes | 1,246,443 | 100.00% |
The Libertarian Party nominees qualified for the general election ballot on August 1.[162][163][164]
The Green Party nominees qualified for the general election ballot on August 1.[162][163][164]
Attorney General Josh Shapiro ran a progressive campaign emphasizing protecting abortion rights, voter rights, and raising the state's minimum wage to $15 an hour. On criminal justice issues, Shapiro promised to sign a bill abolishing the death penalty having previously supported it, but also faced criticism from some left-wing voters for adopting a "tough on crime" image. In addition, he has openly feuded with Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner.[179]
State Senator Doug Mastriano positioned himself as a staunch ally of former president Donald Trump, promoting conspiracy theories about the 2020 election, defense of Confederate monuments,[180] arming school teachers with firearms,[181] and disobeying COVID-19 safety protocols.[182] Mastriano also drew accusations of antisemitism for using anti-semitic dogwhistles against Shapiro.[8] One of Mastriano's most vocal supporters was Andrew Torba, the CEO of far-right social media website Gab, a website on which the perpetrator of the Tree of Life Synagogue shooting posted before committing the massacre. Torba donated $500 to the Mastriano campaign, and Mastriano himself told the Gab founder in an interview, "Thank god for what you've done."[183]
No debate was held during the general election, as Shapiro and Mastriano were unable to come to an agreement on how to debate.[184] In addition, Mastriano did not release his first general election ads until October, while the more well-funded Shapiro had already spent $18.6 million in television broadcasting by that time.[185] These factors, combined with Mastriano's refusal to talk to major media outlets and decision to ban journalists from campaign rallies, severely limited his voter outreach.[186]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[187] | Likely D | September 29, 2022 |
Inside Elections[188] | Lean D | October 7, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[189] | Likely D | September 28, 2022 |
Politico[190] | Likely D | October 25, 2022 |
RCP[191] | Lean D | November 2, 2022 |
Fox News[192] | Likely D | November 1, 2022 |
538[193] | Solid D | October 28, 2022 |
Elections Daily[194] | Likely D | November 7, 2022 |
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Josh Shapiro (D) |
Doug Mastriano (R) |
Other [s] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics | October 24–31, 2022 | October 31, 2022 | 52.6% | 40.6% | 6.8% | Shapiro +12.0% |
FiveThirtyEight | June 10 – October 31, 2022 | October 28, 2022 | 51.5% | 40.9% | 7.6% | Shapiro +10.7% |
Average | 52.1% | 40.8% | 7.2% | Shapiro +11.4% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Josh Shapiro (D) |
Doug Mastriano (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Research Co. | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 53% | 41% | 2%[t] | 4% |
Targoz Market Research | November 2–6, 2022 | 631 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 52% | 46% | 3%[u] | – |
InsiderAdvantage (R) | November 3, 2022 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 51% | 43% | 3%[v] | 4% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | November 1–3, 2022 | 1,097 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 45% | 2% | 3% |
Remington Research Group (R) | November 1–2, 2022 | 1,180 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 52% | 40% | 3%[w] | 4% |
Marist College | October 31 – November 2, 2022 | 1,152 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 54% | 39% | 1%[x] | 7% |
1,021 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 54% | 40% | – | 5% | ||
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | October 28 – November 1, 2022 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 38% | 1%[y] | 9% |
Emerson College | October 28–31, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 41% | 5%[z] | 5% |
53% | 43% | 5%[aa] | – | ||||
Suffolk University | October 27–30, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 40% | 1%[ab] | 7% |
Fox News | October 26–30, 2022 | 1,005 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 37% | 4%[ac] | 6% |
Big Data Poll | October 27–28, 2022 | 1,005 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 44% | 4%[ad] | 4% |
co/efficient (R) | October 26–28, 2022 | 1,716 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 41% | 4%[ae] | 4% |
Muhlenberg College | October 24–28, 2022 | 460 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 54% | 40% | 2%[af] | 4% |
Wick Insights (R) | October 26–27, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 43% | 2%[ag] | 6% |
Siena Research/NYT | October 24–26, 2022 | 620 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 53% | 40% | <1%[ah] | 7% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) | October 25, 2022 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 42% | 4%[ai] | 4% |
YouGov/CBS News | October 21–24, 2022 | 1,084 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 54% | 45% | – | – |
Franklin & Marshall College | October 14–23, 2022 | 620 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 54% | 32% | 6%[aj] | 10% |
384 (LV) | ± 6.8% | 58% | 36% | – | – | ||
Rasmussen Reports (R) | October 19–20, 2022 | 972 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 40% | 6%[ak] | 10% |
Echelon Insights | October 18–20, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 50% | 38% | 3%[al] | 8% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) | October 19, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 42% | 3%[am] | 6% |
CNN/SSRS | October 13–17, 2022 | 901 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 56% | 39% | 5%[an] | – |
703 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 56% | 41% | 2%[ao] | – | ||
Wick Insights | October 8–14, 2022 | 1,013 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 46% | 2%[ap] | 3% |
Patriot Polling | October 10–12, 2022 | 857 (RV) | – | 50% | 45% | – | 5% |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | October 4–12, 2022 | 1,400 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 53% | 42% | 1%[aq] | 4% |
The Trafalgar Group (R)[C] | October 8–11, 2022 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 53% | 44% | 1%[ar] | 2% |
Monmouth University | September 29 – October 3, 2022 | 610 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 54% | 38% | – | 8% |
Suffolk University | September 27–30, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 37% | 2%[as] | 13% |
Emerson College | September 23–26, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 41% | 2%[at] | 7% |
Fox News | September 19–25, 2022 | 1,008 (RV) | ± 3% | 51% | 40% | – | 9% |
Franklin & Marshall College | September 19–25, 2022 | 517 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 51% | 37% | – | 12% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) | September 23–24, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 52% | 37% | 4%[au] | 7% |
Marist College | September 19–22, 2022 | 1,242 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 40% | <1%[av] | 6% |
1,043 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 54% | 42% | – | 4% | ||
The Phillips Academy Poll | September 16–19, 2022 | 759 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 43% | 12% | |
Muhlenberg College | September 13–16, 2022 | 420 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 53% | 42% | 1%[aw] | 3% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | September 13–15, 2022 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 45% | 4%[ax] | 3% |
Monmouth University | September 8–12, 2022 | 605 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 54% | 36% | – | – |
YouGov/CBS News | September 6–12, 2022 | 1,188 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 55% | 44% | – | 1% |
RABA Research | August 31 – September 3, 2022 | 679 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 41% | 4%[ay] | 9% |
Survey Monkey (D)[D] | August 31 – September 1, 2022 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 32% | – | 15% |
616 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 56% | 35% | – | 9% | ||
Emerson College | August 22–23, 2022 | 1,034 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 44% | 3% | 6% |
Franklin & Marshall College | August 15–21, 2022 | 522 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 48% | 36% | 4%[az] | 12% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | August 15–18, 2022 | 1,096 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 45% | 2%[ba] | 5% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R) | August 7–10, 2022 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 37% | – | 11% |
Fox News | July 22–26, 2022 | 908 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 40% | 1% | 8% |
Blueprint Polling (D) | July 19–21, 2022 | 712 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 51% | 39% | – | 10% |
Beacon Research (D)[E] | July 5–20, 2022 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 35% | 1% | 12% |
609 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 39% | 1% | 7% | ||
Global Strategy Group (D)[F] | July 14–19, 2022 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 42% | – | 7% |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | June 12–19, 2022 | 1,382 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 46% | – | 5% |
Cygnal (R) | June 16–17, 2022 | 535 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 45% | – | 7% |
Suffolk University | June 10–13, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 40% | 3%[bb] | 13% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Opinion Strategies (R) | May 12–18, 2022 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | 3,031,137 | 56.49% | -1.28% | ||
Republican | 2,238,477 | 41.71% | +1.01% | ||
Libertarian |
|
51,611 | 0.96% | -0.02% | |
Green |
|
24,436 | 0.46% | -0.09% | |
Keystone |
|
20,518 | 0.38% | N/A | |
Total votes | 5,366,179 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
Turnout | 60.53% | ||||
Registered electors | 8,864,831 | ||||
Democratic hold |
Shapiro won 11 of 17 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.[318][unreliable source?]
District | Shapiro | Mastriano | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 59% | 39% | Brian Fitzpatrick |
2nd | 76% | 22% | Brendan Boyle |
3rd | 92% | 6% | Dwight Evans |
4th | 66% | 32% | Madeleine Dean |
5th | 70% | 28% | Mary Gay Scanlon |
6th | 61% | 37% | Chrissy Houlahan |
7th | 55% | 43% | Susan Wild |
8th | 54% | 44% | Matt Cartwright |
9th | 38% | 59% | Dan Meuser |
10th | 55% | 43% | Scott Perry |
11th | 46% | 52% | Lloyd Smucker |
12th | 68% | 30% | Mike Doyle (117th Congress) |
Summer Lee (118th Congress) | |||
13th | 34% | 64% | John Joyce |
14th | 44% | 55% | Guy Reschenthaler |
15th | 38% | 60% | Glenn Thompson |
16th | 48% | 50% | Mike Kelly |
17th | 62% | 36% | Conor Lamb (117th Congress) |
Chris Deluzio (118th Congress) |
Josh Shapiro defeated Doug Mastriano by 14.8%. While this marked a 2.73% Republican swing from 2018, it was still 13.18% larger than Joe Biden's win in the presidential race in Pennsylvania two years earlier, and 9.86% larger than Shapiro's reelection for Attorney General that same year. All counties in the Keystone State voted the exact same way they did in 2018, with Shapiro doing best in heavily populated Southeastern Pennsylvania, which is made up of Philadelphia and its suburbs, Berks County (Reading), the Lehigh Valley (Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton), the Wyoming Valley (Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, and Hazleton), the Susquehanna Valley (Harrisburg and Carlisle), Erie County in the northwest corner, and finally, Greater Pittsburgh in the southwest.
Doug Mastriano, meanwhile, piled up large margins in Pennsylvania's rural counties, but also won some populous places located in the western part of the state, like Butler, Washington, and Westmoreland counties near Pittsburgh. However, Mastriano significantly underperformed President Donald Trump's margins in the 2020 Presidential election in some of those counties; Westmoreland County, for example, voted for Trump by 28 points in 2020, but only backed Mastriano by 6 points in 2022. A similar leftward shift happened in neighboring Washington County, with Shapiro only losing the county by 2 points despite Joe Biden losing the county by over 20 points 2 years earlier. Mastriano also carried Lancaster, including the counties contained either fully or partially within his State Senate district, namely Adams, Franklin and York. Except for Adams and Franklin counties, Lancaster and York were once again carried by single digits by the Republican gubernatorial candidate just like 2018, as Mastriano's extremist views likely turned off moderate independents and Republicans in these areas.[citation needed]
Southeastern Pennsylvania, a strong Democratic area during elections, shifted more Democratic. This region, with strongly Democratic Philadelphia, anchored by its suburbs, has become a Democratic stronghold in elections, winning all Delaware Valley counties. Southeastern Pennsylvania piled up large margins in its suburbs. Its electorate is highly educated, affluent, and diverse. In addition to the region's strong Democratic tilt, abortion rights were a significant campaign issue among voters. According to CNN polling data,[319] 62% of Pennsylvania voters believed abortion should be legal, and those voters broke for Shapiro by a landslide margin of 81%–18%. College-educated voters, who made up 41% of the electorate, also voted heavily for Shapiro by a 64%–35% margin. According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Shapiro won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Mastriano's defeat.[320]
Voter demographic data for 2022 was collected by CNN. The voter survey is based on exit polls completed by 2,657 voters in person as well as by phone.[319]
Demographic subgroup | Shapiro | Mastriano | % of total vote |
---|---|---|---|
Ideology | |||
Liberals | 94 | 4 | 25 |
Moderates | 71 | 28 | 41 |
Conservatives | 13 | 86 | 34 |
Party | |||
Democrats | 96 | 3 | 37 |
Republicans | 16 | 83 | 40 |
Independents | 64 | 33 | 24 |
Gender | |||
Men | 48 | 50 | 49 |
Women | 63 | 37 | 51 |
Marital status | |||
Married | 47 | 52 | 64 |
Unmarried | 65 | 33 | 36 |
Gender by marital status | |||
Married men | 49 | 50 | 36 |
Married women | 55 | 44 | 29 |
Unmarried men | 53 | 43 | 14 |
Unmarried women | 73 | 27 | 21 |
Race/ethnicity | |||
White | 50 | 48 | 81 |
Black | 92 | 8 | 8 |
Latino | 72 | 25 | 8 |
White voters by gender | |||
White men | 43 | 55 | 41 |
White women | 58 | 42 | 41 |
Age | |||
18–24 years old | 72 | 25 | 7 |
25–29 years old | 69 | 31 | 5 |
30–39 years old | 64 | 34 | 13 |
40–49 years old | 55 | 44 | 11 |
50–64 years old | 51 | 49 | 29 |
65 and older | 51 | 47 | 34 |
2020 presidential vote | |||
Biden | 96 | 3 | 48 |
Trump | 15 | 84 | 45 |
First time midterm election voter | |||
Yes | 66 | 30 | 12 |
No | 54 | 45 | 88 |
Education | |||
Never attended college | 41 | 59 | 24 |
Some college education | 59 | 38 | 21 |
Associate degree | 54 | 44 | 14 |
Bachelor's degree | 58 | 41 | 23 |
Advanced degree | 72 | 27 | 18 |
Education by race | |||
White college graduates | 62 | 37 | 35 |
White no college degree | 43 | 56 | 47 |
Non-white college graduates | 76 | 23 | 6 |
Non-white no college degree | 82 | 17 | 12 |
Education by gender/race | |||
White women with college degrees | 69 | 30 | 17 |
White women without college degrees | 50 | 49 | 24 |
White men with college degrees | 55 | 44 | 18 |
White men without college degrees | 35 | 63 | 23 |
Non-white | 80 | 19 | 19 |
Issue regarded as most important | |||
Crime | 55 | 42 | 11 |
Abortion | 80 | 19 | 37 |
Inflation | 33 | 66 | 28 |
Feelings about Roe v. Wade being overturned | |||
Enthusiastic/satisfied | 14 | 84 | 38 |
Dissatisfied/angry | 84 | 15 | 59 |
Abortion should be | |||
Legal | 81 | 18 | 62 |
Illegal | 16 | 83 | 34 |