Montenegro and Serbia, the most advanced candidates, are both expected to join earlier than the others.[3] Due to multiple factors, Turkish (and to a lesser extent North Macedonian and Albanian) talks are at an effective standstill.[4]
The accession criteria are included in the Copenhagen criteria, agreed in 1993, and the Treaty of Maastricht (Article 49). Article 49 of the Maastricht Treaty (as amended) says that any "European state" that respects the "principles of liberty, democracy, respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, and the rule of law", may apply to join the EU. Whether a country is European or not is subject to political assessment by the EU institutions.[5]Past enlargement since the foundation of the European Union (EU) as the European Economic Community by the Inner Six states in 1958[6] brought total membership of the EU to twenty-eight, although as a result of the withdrawal of the United Kingdom, the current number of EU member states is twenty-seven.
These states must negotiate the terms of their EU accession with the current member states, and align their domestic legislation with EU law before joining.
Turkey has a long-standing application with the EU, but their accession negotiations have stalled since 2016.[7] This is due to the political issues surrounding the accession of the country.[8] As for the Western Balkan states, the EU had pledged to include them after their civil wars: two states have entered (Slovenia in 2004 and Croatia in 2013), four are candidates, and the remaining two have pre-accession agreements.[9]
The European Union has made a commitment to accept the countries of the Western Balkans as full EU members
There are other states in Europe that either seek membership or could potentially apply if their present foreign policy changes or the EU gives a signal that they might now be included on the enlargement agenda. However, these are not formally part of the current agenda, which is already delayed due to bilateral disputes in the Balkans and difficulty in fully implementing the acquis communautaire (the accepted body of EU law).
It was previously the norm for enlargements to see multiple entrants join the Union at once. The only previous enlargements of a single state were the 1981 admission of Greece and the 2013 admission of Croatia.
However, the EU members have warned that, following the significant impact of the fifth enlargement in 2004, a more individual approach will be adopted in the future, although the entry of pairs or small groups of countries will most probably coincide.[10]
The 2003 European Council summit in Thessaloniki set the integration of the Western Balkans as a priority of EU expansion. This commitment was made in order to stabilise the region in the wake of the Yugoslav Wars, a series of ethnic wars through the 1990s that led to the break-up of Yugoslavia.
Serbia and Montenegro could join the EU in 2025.[13] The European Council endorsed starting negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia on 26 March 2020, and they could join after 2025.[14]
Bulgaria blocked North Macedonia's EU Accession Negotiations.[15]
Turkey's candidacy to join the EU has been a matter of major significance and considerable controversy since it was granted in 1999. Turkey has had historically close ties with the EU, having an association agreement since 1964,[16] being in a customs union with the EU since 1995 and initially applying to join in 1987. Only after a summit in Brussels on 17 December 2004 (following the major 2004 enlargement), the European Council announced that membership negotiations with Turkey were officially opened on 3 October 2005.
Turkey's relations with the EU have seriously deteriorated in the aftermath of the 2016 Turkish coup d'état attempt and subsequent purges.[22][23] On 24 November 2016, the European Parliament approved a non-binding resolution calling for the "temporary freeze of the ongoing accession negotiations with Turkey" over human rights and rule of law concerns.[24][25][26] On 13 December, the European Council (comprising the heads of state or government of the member states) resolved that it would open no new areas in Turkey's membership talks in the "prevailing circumstances",[27] as Turkey's path toward autocratic rule made progress on EU accession impossible.[28] As of 2022, and especially following Erdoğan's victory in the constitutional referendum, Turkish accession talks are effectively at a standstill.[4][29][30]
Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine ratified an Association Agreement with the EU, and the European Parliament passed a resolution in 2014 stating that "in accordance with Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, as well as any other European country, have a European perspective, can apply for EU membership in compliance with the principles of democracy, respect for fundamental freedoms and human rights, minority rights and ensuring the rule of rights."[31] They also entered the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area with the EU, which creates "framework for modernising [...] trade relations and for economic development by the opening of markets via the progressive removal of customs tariffs and quotas, and by an extensive harmonisation of laws, norms and regulations in various trade-related sectors, creating the conditions for aligning key sectors" of their economies with EU standards.[32] However, the EU did not expand further into the post-Soviet space in the 2010s.[33]
By January 2021, Georgia and Ukraine were preparing to formally apply for EU membership in 2024.[34][35][36] However, following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine submitted an application for EU membership on 28 February 2022, followed by Georgia and Moldova on 3 March 2022.[37][38] On 23 June 2022, the European Council granted candidate status to Moldova and Ukraine.[39]
Border dispute with Croatia.[41] Work on bringing financial and budgetary provisions in line with the acquis is still at an early stage.[42] Issues with corruption.[43]
The country's constitution needs dramatic reforms to meet EU fundamental rights and other standards, federal agreement about the future of the state, level of economic development.[45]
Corruption problems and politicization of the judiciary, extremely high unemployment, extremely high poverty, extremely low level of economical development. Dramatic reforms are needed to meet EU's fundamental rights and other standards, concerns about democracy & rule of law, human rights abuse, status is disputed.[45]
^Montenegro started negotiations in November 2005 while a part of Serbia and Montenegro. Separate technical negotiations were conducted regarding issues of sub-state organizational competency. A mandate for direct negotiations with Montenegro was established in July 2006. Direct negotiations were initiated on 26 September 2006 and concluded on 1 December 2006.[74]
^Serbia started negotiations in November 2005 while part of Serbia and Montenegro, with a modified mandate from July 2006.
Level of preparation for acquis chapters
Level of preparation for adopting the acquis communautaire in each policy area, according to the 2021 European Commission reports.[109]
The Maastricht Treaty (Article 49) states that any European country (as defined by a European Council assessment) that is committed to democracy may apply for membership in the European Union.[117] In addition to European states, other countries have also been speculated or proposed as future members of the EU.
Sovereign states
States in Europe who have chosen, for various reasons, not to join the EU have integrated with it to different extents according to their circumstances. Iceland, Norway, and Liechtenstein participate directly in the single market via the EEA, Switzerland does so via bilateral treaties and the other European microstates (Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, Vatican City) have specific agreements with the EU and neighbouring countries, including their use of the euro as their currency. Most of these countries are also part of the Schengen Area. Norway, Iceland, and Switzerland have all previously had live applications to join the EU, which have been withdrawn or otherwise frozen. Such applications could be resubmitted in the event of a change in the political landscape.
Canada is a non-European country with values, culture, trade, and politics closely linked with the EU. Its membership has been proposed due to this. See: Canada–European Union relations.
Despite Scotland voting to stay,[150] the United Kingdom as a whole left the European Union in 2020, leaving potential future membership for Scotland as enlargement from outside of the EU.[151] The Scottish National Party (SNP) which leads Scotland's devolvedgovernment supports re-joining the EU should Scotland become independent in the future.[152]
Internal enlargement is the process of new member states arising from the break-up of or secession from an existing member state.[153][154][155] There have been and are a number of active separatist movements within member states (for example in Catalonia and Flanders) but there are no clear agreements, treaties or precedents covering the scenario of an existing EU member state breaking into two or more states, both of which wish to remain EU member states. The question is whether one state is a successor and one a new applicant or, alternatively, both are new states which must be admitted to the EU.[156][157]
In some cases, a region desires to leave its state and the EU, namely those regions wishing to join Switzerland. But most, namely the two movements who held referendums during the 2010s, Scotland and Catalonia, see their future as independent states within the EU. This results in great interest on whether, once independent, they would retain EU membership or conversely whether they would have to re-apply. In the later case, since new members must be approved unanimously, any other state which has an interest in blocking their membership to deter similar independence movements could do so.[158][159] Additionally, it is unclear whether the successor state would retain any opt-outs that the parent state was entitled to.
Opinions on membership
European Commission
Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission (2014-2019): "If there were to be a 'yes' vote in favour of Catalan independence, then we will respect that opinion. But Catalonia will not be able to be an EU member state on the day after such a vote."[160] This was repeated in October in an official press release: "We [...] reiterate the legal position held by this Commission as well as by its predecessors. If a referendum were to be organised in line with the Spanish Constitution it would mean that the territory leaving would find itself outside of the European Union."[161]
José Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission (2004-2014), stated in 2012 in the context of the 2014 referendum for independence in Scotland, that any new independent country would have to apply for membership and negotiate its terms, but that the rest of the original country would not have to re-negotiate its position and would continue its membership.[162][163] In 2014 he said that it would have been 'very difficult' for an independent Scotland to join the EU, 'if not impossible', because of the difficulty of getting the approval of all member states, particularly Spain, which fears a possible secession of Catalonia and has blocked Kosovo's accession to the EU.[164]
Joaquín Almunia (Spanish, being at the time an EU Commissioner) in 2013 claimed that Catalonia would have to apply for EU membership in the event of secession from Spain.[165]
Government of Spain
Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, said in November 2013 that an independent Scotland's entry to the EU would require the consent of all existing members and that an independent Scotland or other regions gaining independence, taken as a reference to Catalonia, would end up outside of the EU.[166][167]
Spanish Foreign Minister José García-Margallo, having said in February 2012 that Spain would not veto Scottish accession to the EU, provided Scottish independence had UK agreement (thus making it different from Catalan independence).[168]
On 1 October 2017, the Catalan government held a referendum on independence, which had been declared illegal by the Constitutional Court of Spain, with potential polling stations being cordoned off by riot police. The subsequent events constituted a political crisis for Catalonia. The EU's position is to keep distance from the crisis while supporting Spain's territorial integrity and constitution.[169][170] While the debate around Scotland's referendum may inform the Catalan crisis, Catalonia is in a distinct situation from Scotland whereby the central government does not recognise the legitimacy of any independence declaration from Catalonia. If Spain does not recognise the independence of a Catalan state, Catalonia cannot separately join the EU and it is still recognised as part of Spain's EU membership.
Corsica has a strong and electorally successful nationalist movement, with positions ranging from autonomy to outright independence, the latter option with around 10–15% public support.[171] The independist party Corsica Libera envisions an independent Corsica within the European Union as a union of various European peoples, as well as recommendations for alignment within European directives.[172]
Sardinia has a strong and electorally successful nationalist movement, with positions ranging from autonomy to outright independence.
As the Sardinian movement has its origins on the left of the political spectrum[175][176] It is mostly pro-european, with a key focus on environmentalism.
According to a 2012 survey conducted in a joint effort between the University of Cagliari and that of Edinburgh,[177][178][179] 41% of Sardinians would be in favour of independence (with 10% choosing it from both Italy and the European Union, and 31% only from Italy with Sardinia remaining in the EU), whilst another 46% would rather have a larger autonomy within Italy and the EU, including fiscal power; 12% of people would be content to remain part of Italy and the EU with a Regional Council without any fiscal powers, and 1% in Italy and the EU without a Regional Council and fiscal powers.[180][181][182][183][184][185][186] A 2017 poll by the Ixè Institute found that 51% of those questioned identified as Sardinian (as opposed to an Italian average of 15% identifying by their region of origin), rather than Italian (19%), European (11%) and/or citizen of the world (19%).[187][188]
Sardinian nationalists address a number of issues, such as the environmental damage caused by the military forces[189][190][191][192][193][194][195][196][197] (in fact, 60% of such bases in Italy are located on the island),[198] the financial and economic exploitation of the island's resources by the Italian state and mainland industrialists,[199] the lack of any political representation both in Italy and in the European Parliament[200][201] (due to an unbalanced electoral constituency that still remains to this day,[202] Sardinia has not had its own MEP since 1994),[203] the nuclear power and waste (on which a referendum was proposed by a Sardist party,[204] being held in 2011[205]) and the ongoing process of depopulation and Italianization that would destroy the Sardinian indigenous culture.[206]
A similar scenario has been envisioned with the unification of Moldova and Romania, which would incorporate the current territory of Moldova into Romania and thus into the EU.[210] About 44% of the Moldovans that were polled in 2021 supported such a scenario.[211]
There are multiple special member state territories, some of them are not fully covered by the EU treaties and apply EU law only partially, if at all. It is possible for a dependency to change its status regarding the EU or some particular treaty or law provision. The territory may change its status from participation to leaving or from being outside to joining.
The Faroe Islands, a self-governing nation within the Kingdom of Denmark, is not part of the EU, as explicitly asserted by both Rome treaties.[218] The relations with the EU are governed by a Fisheries Agreement (1977) and a Free Trade Agreement (1991, revised 1998). The main reason for remaining outside the EU is disagreements about the Common Fisheries Policy,[219] which disfavours countries with large fish resources. Also, every member has to pay for the Common Agricultural Policy, which favours countries having much agriculture which the Faroe Islands does not. When Iceland was in membership negotiations around 2010, there was a hope of better conditions for fish-rich countries[citation needed], but to no avail. The Common Fisheries Policy was introduced in 1970 for the very reason of getting access for the first EC members to waters of candidate countries, namely the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Denmark including the Faroe Islands[citation needed].
Nevertheless, there are politicians, mainly in the right-wing Union Party (Sambandsflokkurin), led by their chairman Kaj Leo Johannesen, who would like to see the Faroes as a member of the EU. However, the chairman of the left-wing Republic (Tjóðveldi), Høgni Hoydal, has expressed concerns that if the Faroes were to join the EU as is, they might vanish inside the EU, comparing this with the situation of the Shetland Islands and Åland today, and wants the local government to solve the political situation between the Faroes and Denmark first.[220]
Greenland, a self-governing community that is part of the Kingdom of Denmark, entered the EC with Denmark in 1973, because it was not autonomous at that time. After the establishment of Greenland's home rule in 1979 (effective from 1980), it held a second referendum on membership. The result was (mainly because of the Common Fisheries Policy) to leave, so on 1 February 1985, Greenland left the EEC and EURATOM. Its status was changed to that of an Overseas Country.[221][222] Danish nationals residing in Greenland (i.e. all native population) are nonetheless fully European citizens; they are not, however, entitled to vote in European elections.
There has been some speculation as to whether Greenland may consider rejoining the European Union. On 4 January 2007 the Danish daily Jyllands-Posten quoted the former Danish minister for Greenland, Tom Høyem, as saying "I would not be surprised if Greenland again becomes a member of the EU... The EU needs the Arctic window and Greenland cannot alone manage the gigantic Arctic possibilities".[223] Greenland has a lot of natural resources, and Greenland has, especially during the 2000s commodities boom, contracted foreign private companies to exploit some of them, but the cost is considered too high, as Greenland is remote and severely lacks infrastructure which has to be built. After 2013 prices have declined so such efforts have stalled.
The Brexit debate has reignited talk about the EU in Greenland with calls for the island to join the Union again.[224]
Dutch constituent countries and special municipalities
When Bonaire, Sint Eustatius, and Saba were established as Dutch public bodies after the dissolution of the Netherlands Antilles (which was an OCT) in 2010, their status within the EU was raised. Rather than change their status from an OCT to an outermost region, as their change in status within the Netherlands would imply, it was decided that their status would remain the same for at least five years. After those five years, their status would be reviewed.[needs update]
New Caledonia is an overseas territory of France with its own unique status under the French Constitution, which is distinct from that of overseas departments and collectivities. It is defined as an "overseas country" under the 1998 Nouméa Accord, and enjoys a high degree of self-government.[226] Currently, in regard to the EU, it is one of the Overseas Countries and Territories (OCT).
As a result of the Nouméa Accord, New Caledonians voted in three consecutive independence referendums in 2018, 2020, and 2021. The referendums were to determine whether the territory would remain a part of the French Republic as a "sui generis collectivity", or whether it would become an independent state. The accords also specify a gradual devolution of powers to the local New Caledonian assembly. The results of all three referendums determined that New Caledonia would remain a part of the French Republic.
The Scottish Independence Referendum of 2014 was the first occasion the EU was faced with the potential break-up of a member state, and one where a newly independent state wished to retain its EU membership. While the UK's withdrawal from the EU also took Scotland out of the EU, the debates in the referendum campaign may inform other future scenarios.
The UK Government's legal advice on the issue was that 'Since the [remainder of the UK] would be the same state as the UK, its EU membership would continue',[227] while speculating that 'On the face of it, Scotland would be required to accede to the EU as a new state, which would require negotiations on the terms of its membership ...', but that 'Scotland's position within the EU is likely to be shaped more by any agreements between the parties than by pre-existing principles of EU law.'[228] Without any formal process for handling the break-up of any member state, the European Commission offered, if requested by a member state, to provide an official view on the EU's position on Scottish EU membership in the event of its independence from the UK. The Scottish Government requested that UK Prime Minister David Cameron place this request, but such a request was not made.[229]Nicola Sturgeon, the then Deputy First Minister of Scotland, said that the Scottish Cabinet did not agree an independent Scotland would have to reapply for EU membership.[162]
The referendum campaigns had differing views:
Yes Scotland: The "Yes" campaign, led by Blair Jenkins, argued that Scotland would continue as a member state following a Yes vote as Scotland would remain compliant with all EU Principles as outlined in TEU Article 2 and there are no provisions to exclude a state in the existing EU agreements.[230] During the period between a Yes vote and formal independence, the Scottish Government could engage in negotiations, from within the EU, on the terms of their continuing membership in the EU. Several EU heads of state expressed their opinion that this position was reasonable, as did James Crawford, co-author of the UK government's legal advice on the issue.[231] In an interview on BBC Radio, asked if the timescale of 18 months for EU and other treaty organisation was possible, Crawford replied that he felt the timescale was reasonable.[232] However, there was no official comment on this view from the EU Commission. The Scottish Government and the Yes Campaign both declared that continuation of membership in the EU is their preference.
Better Together: The "No" campaign, led by Alistair Darling, argued that any vote for independence would have automatically placed Scotland out of the EU as a new state, and Scotland would have had to renegotiate entry.[233]
The United Kingdom as a whole left the European Union in 2020, leaving potential future membership for Scotland as enlargement from outside of the EU.[151]
^"European Parliament resolution of 17 July 2014 on Ukraine (2014/2717(RSP))". European Parliament. 17 July 2014. Archived from the original on 24 January 2016. Retrieved 20 July 2015. pursuant to Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine – like any other European state - have a European perspective and may apply to become members of the Union provided that they adhere to the principles of democracy, respect fundamental freedoms and human and minority rights and ensure the rule of law;
^Gonen, Emre (2 May 2017). "A truce with the EU?". Daily Sabah - EuroNews. Archived from the original on 19 September 2020. Retrieved 21 November 2019.
^Europian, Ministria e Integrimit. "Ministria e Integrimit Europian". Ministria e Integrimit Europian. Archived from the original on 20 February 2019. Retrieved 19 February 2019.
^"Über Uns". Campaign for an Independent and Neutral Switzerland official website. Archived from the original on 13 April 2016. Retrieved 4 April 2016.
^Holehouse, Matthew (16 February 2014). "Jose Manuel Barroso: nearly impossible for Scotland to join EU". London: Sunday Telegraph. Archived from the original on 20 September 2020. Retrieved 4 September 2014. Spain, which fears the separation of the Catalonia region, has blocked the accession of Kosovo ... Jose Manuel Barroso, the president of the European Commission ... went on: 'It will be extremely difficult to get the approval of all the other member states to have a new member coming from one member state.' 'We have seen that Spain has been opposing even the recognition of Kosovo, for instance. It's to some extent a similar case because it's a new country, and so I believe it's going to be extremely difficult, if not impossible.'
^"Scottish independence: Spain warning over EU entry". Edinburgh: The Scotsman. 3 February 2014. Archived from the original on 24 September 2015. Retrieved 20 November 2019. 'They have to resolve a mountain of problems, as Better Together has explained very well,' he said.'You have to achieve candidate status. You have to negotiate 35 chapters . It has to be ratified by the institutions of the EU. It then has to be ratified by 28 national parliaments.'
^<<In chiave antimilitarista, nel quadro del tradizionale attivismo contestativo contro la presenza di strutture militari sul territorio nazionale, a fronte del tono minore che ha caratterizzato l'impegno dei comitati siciliani contro il sistema satellitare MUOS, si è rilevato un innalzamento della tensione mobilitativa in Sardegna, ove espressioni dell'antagonismo e dell'indipendentismo sardo hanno rivitalizzato la protesta contro le esercitazioni nei poligoni e nelle installazioni militari dell'Isola, reclamando la smilitarizzazione del territorio.>> Relazione sulla politica dell'informazione per la sicurezza, pg.69
^"Legislation (Greenland)". Official Journal of the European Communities. 28. 1 February 1985. Archived from the original on 11 December 2020. Retrieved 27 December 2020.
^Crawford, James; Boyle, Alan (10 December 2012). "Annex A - Opinion: Referendumon the Independence of Scotland – International Law Aspects"(PDF). p. 67. Archived(PDF) from the original on 11 April 2017. Retrieved 19 February 2013. Part I: Executive summary ... 6.1 Since the rUK would be the same state as the UK, its EU membership would continue. Indeed, the EU treaties implicitly preclude 'automatic' withdrawal by a state. There might have to be an adjustment to the UK's terms of membership to reflect its reduction in territory and population, but this could be done without the UK ceasing to be an EU Member State.
^Crawford, James; Boyle, Alan (10 December 2012). "Annex A - Opinion: Referendum on the Independence of Scotland – International Law Aspects"(PDF). p. 67. Archived(PDF) from the original on 11 April 2017. Retrieved 19 February 2013. Part I: Executive summary ...6. Within the EU, there is no precedent for what happens when a metropolitan part of a current Member State becomes independent, so it is necessary to speculate. ... 6.2 On the face of it, if Scotland had voted for independence it would have been required to accede to the EU as a new state, which would require negotiations on the terms of its membership, including on the subjects of the UK's current opt-outs. The EU treaties make no provision for succession to membership. Certain provisions of the EU treaties would require amendment. If Scotland were somehow to become an EU member in its own right automatically, it is not clear how adjustments to the relative positions of Member States could be willed into being without negotiations. Nor would it be clear on what terms it would be a member. 6.3 Some have argued that the rights conferred on individuals by EU citizenship might influence the European Court of Justice (ECJ) to somehow resist this outcome. But this is a matter for speculation and does not have a clear precedent in EU law. It would also require the issue to somehow come before the ECJ, which may be unlikely. 7. In any event, Scotland's position within the EU is likely to be shaped more by any agreements between the parties than by pre-existing principles of EU law.
Bahhouth, Victor; Ziemnowicz, Christopher (6 March 2018). "Meeting the Global Challenges of Doing Business in the Five Candidate Countries on the Road to Join the European Union". Journal of the Knowledge Economy. 10 (3): 1297–1318. doi:10.1007/s13132-018-0531-3. S2CID158074120.
